Early-August 2014 Announcement of the Entitlement Date for the Rights Issue of ICULS with Warrants Mid-August 2014 § Entitlement Date of the Rights Issue of ICULS with Warrants § Issuance of abridged prospectus in relation to the Rights Issue of ICULS with Warrants
Thong Guan: Allocates MYR100m capex till 2016. Thong Guan is to position itself as a producer of high-value packaging materials and solutions in Asia Pacific. MYR40m would be for the production of high-end packaging material and solutions in at its Sungai Petani plant. MYR5m would be for R&D and necessary machinery and equipment. Also, MYR25m would be used to expand its PVC food wrap business. (Source: The Star)
Stretching forward------TODAY CIMB REPORT TARGET-----3.95,,WOW SO HIGH HA
Thong Guan Industries is one of the country’s two largest film and bag producers, mainly for export to the Asia Pacific markets. The company is embarking on a major capex over the next few years and we forecast at least 16% 3- years CAGR net profit growth. We are initiating coverage with an Add recommendation, with implied target price at RM3.95 (30% discount to its ex-ICULS and warrants fully-diluted SOP/share). The large SOP discount is to reflect its small market capitalisation and tight stock liquidity. Potential catalysts for the stock include higher group EBITDA margins and M&A developments. Major plastic film and bag producer Thong Guan Industries (TGI) is one of the country’s two largest plastic film and bag producers, mainly for export to the Asia Pacific markets. Core products include stretch films, garbage bags, industrial/commercial bags & films, plastic masterbatches compounding and PVC cling film for food. The main revenue contributor is the stretch film division. By year-end, TGI will be adding another thin stretch film line and its first nano-layer stretch film line. Moving up the value chain Management is focusing on moving up the value chain. The company has set up a US$2m research & development (R&D) centre at its Sungai Petani plant mainly for its stretch film and stretch hood, particularly for the thin and nano-layers stretch films. The PVC food wrap division will also be another major earnings contributor for the company as management is doubling its existing monthly 500 tonnes capacity in 3Q14 and 2015. Major expansion in the pipeline The company is embarking on a major expansion plan over the next few years with capex as much as RM100m. We estimate group annual production capacity to rise to around 170,000 tonnes (from 120,000 tonnes in 2013) in 3-4 years. Funding this capex is not an issue, with funds to be raised from the proposed ICULS issue. In addition, the company generates at least RM40m operational cashflow annually. Subscribe for ICULS issue Investors should subscribe for TGI’s proposed RM52.6m ICULS (based on a 1:2 basis), which comes with free warrants (1 warrant for ever two ICULS subscribed). The ex-date is likely to be in late-Sep.
1.3 The Ang family is the largest shareholder The Ang family are the largest shareholders in TGI, holding both direct and indirect 45.5% equity stake in the company. The Group is led by its Group Managing Director (since the 1970s), Dato’ Ang Poon Chuan. The current issued share capital for the company is 105.2m shares.
1.4 Produces wide range of plastic products TGI produces a wide range of plastic film and bags (for both domestic and exports markets) such as: i) stretch films ii) garbage bags iii) PVC cling food wrap iv) industrial/commercial bags and films v) calcium carbonate/white masterbatches and other plastic compounds Total group production capacity is around 130,000 tonnes annually and on average, the plants are operating above 80% capacity. The main products manufactured by the company are stretch films and garbage bags for the export markets (mainly to Asia Pacific). The company also has its own F&B division, which is involved in the manufacturing and trading of beverages and consumer products under its “888” and other brands.
1.7 Garbage bags… money to make from rubbish This product is the second largest contributor for the company. The annual production capacity is 40,000 tonnes and the company has been exporting to Japan (its largest export market) since the 1980s. Its first export market was to the tough Japanese market. According to statistics from Japan, TGI is the largest exporter of garbage bags to this country, commanding 1o-15% market share. Today, TGI also exports to the Asia Pacific and Europe markets. The main raw material for garbage bags is high density polyethylene (HDPE). TGI’s garbage bags can be eco-friendly with 100% bio-degradable bags. We estimate average pretax profit margin for garbage bags at around 5-6%, slightly higher than stretch films. HDPE and LLDPE prices track each other quite closely.
1.11 Other products TGI also produces its own calcium carbonate (CC) and white masterbatches. Masterbatch is a solid or liquid additive for plastic used for colouring plastics and produced by the compounding process. This division makes RM10m-15m revenue annually and RM1m-1.5m in pretax profit. The company is planning to produce higher-value added compounds with its recent new investment in this division. TGI recycles its in-house waste internally and the main recycling divisions at its Gurun plant. The compounding and recycling division have allowed the Group to be competitive against any low cost producers as the compounds/masterbatches and recycled resins can be blended back into producing plastic films. TGI also trades in related products such as plastic and paper raw materials mainly to support its sub-contractors and customers. 1.12 Recent developments In Feb-2014, the company proposed a RM52.6m ICULS issue on a 1:2 basis, 1 ICULS for every two shares. In addition, shareholders will get free warrants on a 1:2 basis for the ICULS, one free warrant for every two ICULS subscribed. The ICULS conversion ratio is 1 ICULS-to-1 share, only from the third year onwards while the warrants can be converted to underlying shares anytime once listed at an exercise price of RM1.50/share. TGI expects to complete the ICULS and warrants issue next month. The ex-date for the ICULS and warrant subscription is likely to be in end-Sep.
2. OUTLOOK 2.1 Major expansion plans over the next few years TGI is looking at undertaking a major capacity expansion exercise over the next few years for its various businesses in the company, costing as much as RM100m. We estimate the group annual production capacity to rise to around 170,000 tonnes (from 120,000 tonnes in 2013) in 3-4 years, with capacity growth to come mainly from thin stretch films, garbage bags, industrial/commercial bags and PVC food wrap lines.
2.2 The global stretch film industry The global stretch film has been growing 6-7% annually since the 2008 global financial crisis, with capacity growth coming mainly from Asia and the Middle East. In 2014, global stretch film demand is estimated at around 3.7m tonnes (2.8m tonnes in 2009) with Europe being the largest stretch film market.
With the right formulation, nano-layer stretch films have better film properties, stronger puncture force movement and higher load retaining force. As such, these nano-layer films are thinner, lighter and stronger stretch films and offer higher profit margins. If all goes well, TGI could be adding more nano-layer stretch film lines over the next few years. 2.5 Expanding its PVC food wrap capacity The company is also looking at increasing production capacity for its PVC food wrap division. The current production of 500 tonnes monthly should double next year due to the strong demand from both Asean and Asia markets. In the next few years, TGI should become the largest PVC food wrap producer in Asean. Profit margin from this division is much higher than its stretch film business. TGI is expected to aggressively grow this division over the next few years. 2.6 Strong demand for its garbage bags Under Japan’s generalised system of preferences (GPS) scheme, it reduced tariffs for designated imported products from developing countries (like China) in an effort to help increase export income and promote economic development. However, we understand that Japan’s 3.5% GSP for China’s garbage bags was lifted two years back and as such, Japan is currently looking to import garbage bags from other countries. To take advantage of strong demand from Japan, we believe TGI is looking to expand production capacity for its garbage bags at its Sungai Petani plant while maintaining production at its China operations. Management is looking to expand production capacity for this product in 2015. 2.7 M&A? Management is also looking at M&As to grow its business. With a strong net cash balance sheet from funds raised from the ICULS and internal funds, the company is on the lookout for businesses in the region that offer synergies and growth. We have not reflected potential earnings from any M&A activities. 2.8 SWOT analysis Our SWOT analysis shows that the company is moving up the value chain by focus on producing higher value-added products. This is needed if the company wants to differentiate itself from its competitors. Capex is not a concern as its balance sheet is strong. With a larger production base, this should generate greater economies of scale for the company. PVC food wrap, industrial/commercial films and thin and nano-layer stretch film divisions should drive strong earnings growth for TGI over the next few years.
3. RISKS 3.1 Sharp rise in raw material prices At any point in time, the company has more than RM100m worth of inventory, enough to sustain operations for 1-2 months. 80% of its production cost is from raw materials and the selling price for its stretch films is usually based on a “cost plus” basis. What would be negative in the short term for the company is a sharp rise in raw material prices in a short period, whereby the company would have to absorb some of the raw material price increase. If raw material prices fall rapidly (for example when crude oil price collapsed in 2H08), TGI might have to make provisions for inventory value depreciation. 3.2 Currency volatility 75% of TGI’s revenues are derived from exports, with Japan being its largest export market. Sharp volatility in the forex market could have a negative impact on short-term profit margins.
For example, in 4Q13, the company’s pretax profit margin was only 2.5% compared to 7% in 3Q13. We believe this was mainly due to the depreciation of the Japanese yen against the US$ in 4Q13. At end 3Q13, US-yen was 96.9 compared to 105.2 in end-4Q13. The yen depreciated 8.5% against the US$ during the quarter. 3.3 Rising electricity and labour costs Both electricity and labour cost is around 3% of TGI’s production cost (Figure 20). The company might have to partially absorb any rise in its electricity and labour costs and this could put some pressure on profit margins.
3.4 Risk of substitute products TGI’s plastic film and products could face challenges from other substitute products in the future. However, due to the flexibility and competitive cost of using plastic, we believe there are currently no major product threats for the company’s stretch film or garbage bags. 3.5 Competition The stretch film industry is competitive, with competition coming from Asia, Middle East and Europe. TGI’s management is looking to move up the value chain to differentiate itself in the market. The company will start operations of its first nano-layer stretch film line by the end of this year. 4. FINANCIALS 4.1 Signs of earnings growth since 2013 After flat earnings in 2011-12, TGIB’s earnings growth started to accelerate from 2013 onwards. This was mainly due to profit margin expansion as management focused on producing high value-added products, which offer higher profit margin. The profit margin decline in 4Q13 was mainly due to forex volatility.
4.2 Higher profit margin in the near future As the company moves up the value chain, we expect group EBITDA and pretax profit margin to improve over the next few years. We estimate TGI’s 3-year net profit CAGR at around 16%, supported stronger topline growth. Our earnings forecasts are conservative. It could be higher as we have not taken into account any potential profit from any M&As.
4.3 Strong balance sheet As at end-Mar, the company is in a net cash position of RM38.1m or RM0.36 net cash per share. Assuming the RM52.6m ICULS issue is completed in Sep, TGI’s net cash position is expected to rise to around RM90.7m or RM0.86 net cash per share (existing issued share base), RM0.57 net cash per share if we assume full ICULS conversion (157.8m issued share base). If we assume full conversion of its proposed warrants, TGI’s net cash rises to RM130.2m or RM0.71 net cash per share (184.1m issued share base assume full ICULS and warrants conversion).
4.4 Pays out 25-30% of its earnings The company does not have a dividend policy but in the past few years, its net dividend payout ratio has been between 25% and 30%. We have assumed a 30% net dividend payout ratio for the company over the next three years
Post a Comment
People who like this
New Topic
You should check in on some of those fields below.
Title
Category
Comment
Confirmation
Click Confirm to delete this Forum Thread and all the associated comments.
Report Abuse
Please Sign In to report this post as abuse.
Market Buzz
No result.
Featured Posts
MQ Trader
Introducing MY's First IPO Fund for Sophisticated Investors!
MQ Chat
New Update. Discover investment communities that resonate with your ideas
MQ Trader
M & A Value Partners IPO Equity Fund has been launched - Targeted 13% Return p.a
Latest Videos
0:17
New IPO: Supreme Consolidated Resources Berhad, a distributor and warehouser of F&B products, aims to list on the ACE Market!
MQ Trader 468 views | 11 d ago
0:17
New IPO: O&G healthcare service provider, Metro Healthcare Berhad aims to list on the Ace Market!
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Victor Tai Yong Sheng
30 posts
Posted by Victor Tai Yong Sheng > 2014-07-09 15:08 | Report Abuse
time to collect more :D 8 cent dividen