Posted by Beary > 2021-06-28 16:57 | Report Abuse

That means what they earn billions and billions of rm are toilet paper????

Toilet paper also worth something right?

Posted by CharlesT > 2021-06-28 16:57 | Report Abuse

The Bilions profit made this 2 years doesnt worth a shit meh...aiyo

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-06-28 16:58 | Report Abuse

Jengjengjeng lowest daily close..tomorrow can catch-down kossan 3.2

TG 4.23 - Supermx should be 3.23

Posted by pjseow > 2021-06-28 16:58 | Report Abuse

Charles T , Your 2021 losses must be more than 50 %, otherwise you wont pick on me unprovoked when I admitted my paper losses was 20 to 25 %. Nobody in their right mind will believe you that a person admitting loses is EGOISTIC . Only Psychotic and Crazy Charles would think this way.
You want to feel good and thrilled that I lost more than you. Using your despicable logic,You dare not share your portfolio implied that you are a liar.

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Posted by MoneyMakers > Jun 25, 2021 12:43 PM | Report Abuse

People like CharlesT really useless 1..Live just to prove other people losses, own losses hide away

Get a life

Posted by CharlesT > 2021-06-28 17:01 | Report Abuse

Ok lah i lose 99% lah

Feel better u only lose 25% in Supermax...

JAKS leh? Also 25% loss ah?

Very smart very panlai

Posted by pjseow > 2021-06-28 17:01 | Report Abuse

Charles T , Your 2021 losses must be more than 50 %, otherwise you wont pick on me unprovoked when I admitted my paper losses was 20 to 25 %. Nobody in their right mind will believe you that a person admitting loses is EGOISTIC . Only Psychotic and Crazy Charles would think this way.
You want to feel good and thrilled that I lost more than you. Using your despicable logic,You dare not share your portfolio implied that you are a liar.

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Posted by MoneyMakers > Jun 25, 2021 12:43 PM | Report Abuse

People like CharlesT really useless 1..Live just to prove other people losses, own losses hide away

Get a life

Posted by CharlesT > 2021-06-28 17:02 | Report Abuse

So i lose more than u...

Still wanna sue me ah?

Posted by CharlesT > 2021-06-28 17:05 | Report Abuse

Basing on yr intelligence level,

Lost 100% in megan

Lose 25% in supermax

Lose 25% in Jaks

Consider very good oredi..

U should lose more

Posted by CharlesT > 2021-06-28 17:06 | Report Abuse

Lucky oldman

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-06-28 17:10 | Report Abuse

Charles is troller..pjs overly sensitive..soo long still argue aiyoo just get private room dont be nuisance here

Posted by NatsukoMishima > 2021-06-28 17:12 | Report Abuse

Better wait 5 year lowest point only buy in ! Bankers like it !

Posted by strattegist > 2021-06-28 17:16 | Report Abuse

closed red

Posted by strattegist > 2021-06-28 17:17 | Report Abuse

tutup merah

Posted by invest_malaysia > 2021-06-28 17:21 | Report Abuse

SP2U really funny. They claimed they’ve been investing for almost 10 years. But they don’t even know transmile case. They still want buy serbadk. Never do research properly on financial statements. Only see projects. In the end bring their students go Holland again

Posted by pjseow > 2021-06-28 17:23 | Report Abuse

Charles T , Other people also cannot tahan your busybody kepochi character going around asking peoples to screenshot their p and c portfolios while hiding your own losses. You are crazy psycho btch as described.

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Posted by MoneyMakers > Jun 25, 2021 12:35 PM | Report Abuse

Post own losses online 1st, let everyone see..then can ask other people losses how much..crazy psycho btch

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 17:35 | Report Abuse

MoneyMakers Tonee Where got global lockdown?? US fully opened no restrictions, UK 80% open see stadium 60K people for EURO, EU allow travel for vacc people

West alrdy open for weeks, doing great..some outbreaks (expected after reopening) but very2 low hosp/deaths

Asia will catch-up eventually
28/06/2021 3:19 PM

"MM, as we are all aware, globally lockdowns and restrictions are still very prevalent to control Covid, to keep hospitalization and death from getting out of hand".

MM u misinterpreted my sentence. I meant - globally, lockdowns and restrictions are still very prevalent to control Covid. It means generally lockdowns and restrictions are being imposed in many countries as a means to control Covid, not global lockdowns. But as Delta variant starts to spread wider and become more dominant, it would not be surprising we may be seeing a global lockdown soon. This scenario may not be far away judging by the recent news.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 17:40 | Report Abuse

@MoneyMakers Jengjengjeng lowest daily close..tomorrow can catch-down kossan 3.2

TG 4.23 - Supermx should be 3.23
28/06/2021 4:58 PM

3.00 lai lai. I will park there to support the price.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 17:44 | Report Abuse

PJseow and CharlesT, both of you need to create a private room somewhere to continue your argument. Here we should be more focussed on glove related debates. You all need to be considerate to others.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 17:51 | Report Abuse

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/06/28/coronavirus-latest-updates/

The rapid spread of the delta coronavirus variant has forced a growing number of countries to reimpose lockdowns and other public health restrictions, raising fears that the more contagious variant was hampering global efforts to contain the pandemic.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 17:52 | Report Abuse

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-57621552

The Australian state of New South Wales has reported 30 new Covid cases on the second day of Greater Sydney's two-week lockdown.

An expanded lockdown now covers 5m people in Greater Sydney, as well as the Blue Mountains, Central Coast and Wollongong.

Cases of the highly infectious Delta variant now stand at 110.

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said on Sunday that she expected that figure to rise.

"Given how contagious this strain of the virus is, we do anticipate that in the next few days, case numbers are likely to increase even beyond what we have seen today because we are seeing that people in isolation, unfortunately, would have already transmitted to all their house contacts," she said.

Posted by invest_malaysia > 2021-06-28 18:07 | Report Abuse

Good news for those who have loan. 6m moratorium now. You guys can use the money to average down kikiki

Posted by pjseow > 2021-06-28 18:13 | Report Abuse

Toneefa , sorry and noted. I used to be very focussed on sharing on FA until this Charles.T who came to this forum last week. Looking.at his more than 30 messages last Friday.attacking me relentlessly with the help of CITADEL , they have a.malicious agenda. I suspected Charles want to stop me from sharing my view on FA. He has the intention of putting.me down unprovoked for reasons known to himself. I will stop for now unless he starts again . He is working in concert with CITADEL. Fortunately , I can withstand his harrassing.

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ToneeFa PJseow and CharlesT, both of you need to create a private room somewhere to continue your argument. Here we should be more focussed on glove related debates. You all need to be considerate to

Posted by observatory > 2021-06-28 18:21 | Report Abuse

Emotion runs high in the Supermax forum. I just want to add my two cents here. I don't mind anyone challenging my view, which is why I write here. But lets keep it civilized.

First on the fundamentals. My preferred approach is to work out Supermax normalized earning and multiply with a pre-pandemic historical PE of 15 times.

To get the normalized earnings, I need to start with normalized revenue. One way is to use the latest analyst consensus revenue for FY23 at RM4,776m. But instead of relying on analyst consensus earning, I apply a pre-pandemic median net margin of 10%. Normalized net earning = RM4,776m * 10% = RM477.6m. Divided by 2,589m shares the normalized EPS = 18.4 sen. At 15 times PE the value is RM2.77. Assuming a cost of equity of 12% and normalization happens in 2 years, the present value is RM2.77 / 1.12^2 = RM2.2

Unfortunately, the analysts’ numbers are not very reliable. They have kept on downgrading not only their forecasted net profit but also their forecasted revenue. So I cross check with another approach -- I assume Supermax will reach 48.42 billion annual capacity by FY23 (6 months later than management’s own projection of CY22). I also assume 85% utilization; and further assume normalized 10% net margin on ASP of RM100 (~USD24) per 1,000 pieces, i.e. RM10 net profit per 1,000. Normalized earning = RM10 * 85% * 48.42 million = RM412m, or 15.9 sen. At 15 times PE the value is RM2.38. The present value is RM2.38 / 1.12^2 = RM1.9

Two two approaches above yield RM1.9 and RM 2.2 respectively. On average I assume roughly RM2 per share.

Next I need to consider two other components to the valuation – first the potential dividends in the next two years, and then the current excess cash.

The earnings in the next two years are highly uncertain. It depends on how fast ASP may decline. If I use analysts’ consensus EPS, I get (142-111) + 80 + 44 = 155 sen, or a PV of 138 sen. Assuming overseas expansion doesn't happen, Supermax will not need to preserve further cash. Then two years earnings can be 100% distributed, i.e. at RM1.4 per share. But to be prudent, I also use the most bearish analyst projection, which gives a PV of 64 sen earning, or about RM0.6 with 100% payout. The mid-point of RM1.4 and RM0.6 is about RM1. This is the second component in the valuation.

Lastly it depends on whether the current cash should be added to the valuation. Current net cash is RM3,675m. But RM1,390m has to be deducted for capacity expansion, and another RM648m set aside for net tax liabilities, leaving RM1,637m or 63 sen per share. But I prefer not to take excess cash at full value in valuation. A 50% discount yield about RM0.3 per share.

So based on my valuation the projected value should be about RM2 + RM1 + RM0.3 = about RM3.3 per share, which is roughly at current share price.

But the range of uncertainty is large. For example, the value could be much larger if the normalized net margin is higher than the historical median of 10% (some believe that Supermax has fundamentally changed its business model which gives it a margin far higher than in the past). At the opposite end, normalization may arrive much faster than the 2-year time horizon that I've assumed competition may be more intense; and a CBP ban over labor issue may happen.

Nonetheless for me RM3.3 +/- a range is roughly the value

A short note on the technical side. Most people can see that glove stocks have been on the downtrend. They also say don’t catch the falling knife. But I feel that the share price is poised for a rebound. For example, I look for signs of opposite trends in the price chart versus RSI chart. Price chart is still trending downwards, but RSI (I use the default 14 days) is unmistakably trending upwards, forming a bottom divergence (底背驰). Even for those who believe the general trend is still downward, there could be some opportunity for short term rebound.

Anyway, as I have a long horizon, I’m not too bothered on the technical side. Most importantly the price has entered my comfort zone. But I must say I still like Harta more.

Posted by GlovesOff > 2021-06-28 18:30 | Report Abuse

Time to buy battered bank stox than this bear ctr ...

Posted by GlovesOff > 2021-06-28 18:31 | Report Abuse

Anyway thanks @observatory for the objective analysis

Posted by Beary > 2021-06-28 18:32 | Report Abuse

Investing need not be so complicated.

Treat projected revenue/earnings with a fistful of salts.

Look at realities on the ground.

If you think the pandemic will be over soon, stay away.

If you think the pandemic will drag on for a long time more, back up the truck and load up.

Posted by Bullrunrun > 2021-06-28 18:43 | Report Abuse

Recovery Plan Phase 1 Buy glove counters

Phase 2 buy more glove counters

Phase 3 & 4 Enjoy the ride

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-06-28 18:45 | Report Abuse

Drop to rm1.50, pjseow wil vanish. Mayb heading to hell. Haha

Posted by i3lurker > 2021-06-28 18:47 | Report Abuse

1.50?

at that price back to discussing contact lens again

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-06-28 18:50 | Report Abuse

Ysla. Rm1.50 equals to rm3. Reasonable wat. Used to trade at 1.30 b4 bonus

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-06-28 18:59 | Report Abuse

Glove demand alrdy down in US/UK/EU

Asia is last major glove market still struggling with covid but should improve significantly by year-end

Once US/UK/EU/Asia (90% glove market) highly vacc, glove demand back to prepandemic level..ASP should sink hard by year end

Prepandemic ASP = prepandemic profits = prepandemic price (65 sen)

Posted by Geek2020 > 2021-06-28 19:01 | Report Abuse

I agree with observatory.. good objective analysis. We need more forumers like this.. bravo.

I also think that glove stocks looks ripe for a rebound play..

Posted by MC33 > 2021-06-28 19:05 | Report Abuse

Yea Observatory
Thanks for sharing , makes sense given so many uncertainties.
I think the price has moved to many s 'comfort zone' as you said

Posted by brian3381 > 2021-06-28 19:06 | Report Abuse

Use monotarium money to average doen? Kiding ka? After all, keep losing. How? Haha

Posted by invest_malaysia > 2021-06-28 19:10 | Report Abuse

What keep losing? You scare no chance to go up meh? You buy RM5 la. Now RM3.3 la. So? You got see glove can earn for how many years until crazy? You got see how much the demand outstrips supply? THAT’S ALL!! You need to understand. Then you’ll happily hold their shares.

Posted by GlovesOff > 2021-06-28 19:40 | Report Abuse

"Pemulihan" Rm250 p/hse hold ... enough to avg down ah ??? Hahaha

Posted by pjseow > 2021-06-28 19:47 | Report Abuse

Observatory , thks for sharing. You are more optismistic than me on your margin and utilization assumption compared with my worst case assumptions. I used 8 % margin and 75 % utlization. The overall market sentiment is very bad . The price.may go.down .further to 3 or less before rebound. I hope to get below 2.50 and do my last averaging . Until then 一纲打尽。I.may consider buying Harta if it goes below 7 . We have discussed on supermx Distribution profits before which we have differences . I prefer not to discuss here again.

Posted by observatory > 2021-06-28 20:03 | Report Abuse

@pjseow, a 75% utilization assumption will only reduce above calculation by 10 to 20 sen. However, the long-term net margin assumption has a much bigger impact. Our assumptions differ where I assume 10% for the entire group based on pre-pandemic median, versus your scenario which breaks down into 8% manufacturing net margin and a much higher distribution margin. Yeah we’ve gone through that discussion so I know where you come from. Thanks.

Posted by CharlesT > 2021-06-28 20:10 | Report Abuse

Pjseow's sharing brought many to Holland...

In Jaks n Supermax...

Scary

Posted by CharlesT > 2021-06-28 20:12 | Report Abuse

I m here to share my technical rebound plan...all chun chun one..4 rounds oredi..

Now its my fifth round

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 20:15 | Report Abuse

@observatory Emotion runs high in the Supermax forum. I just want to add my two cents here. I don't mind anyone challenging my view, which is why I write here. But lets keep it civilized.........
Anyway, as I have a long horizon, I’m not too bothered on the technical side. Most importantly the price has entered my comfort zone. But I must say I still like Harta more.
28/06/2021 6:21 PM

Good one observatory. Very objective and truthful analysis. That is why I m buying at this price. I m queuing a big one at 3.0, hopefully can catch at that price.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 20:22 | Report Abuse

@pjseow Toneefa , sorry and noted. I used to be very focussed on sharing on FA until this Charles.T who came to this forum last week. Looking.at his more than 30 messages last Friday.attacking me relentlessly with the help of CITADEL , they have a.malicious agenda. I suspected Charles want to stop me from sharing my view on FA. He has the intention of putting.me down unprovoked for reasons known to himself. I will stop for now unless he starts again . He is working in concert with CITADEL. Fortunately , I can withstand his harrassing.
28/06/2021 6:13 PM

Its ok pjseow, I m just hoping both of you can direct your focus and energy to the main objective in this forum. We can have some fun bantering each other, beyond that it becomes counter productive. CITADEL is just an instigator, who is always snickering away at other's misfortune.

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 20:25 | Report Abuse

@CharlesT Pjseow's sharing brought many to Holland...

In Jaks n Supermax...

Scary
28/06/2021 8:10 PM

CharlesT, I think a ceasefire meantime will be good. U guys should be on the same team. Pls don't start again.

Posted by pjseow > 2021-06-28 20:28 | Report Abuse

Charles T , please dont lie.again . DK 66 was the main person who did all the reasearch not me on Jaks. I quit Jaks forum more than.a year ago . I just sold.my Jaks a few weeks ago making 56 % which I told.invest malaysia. Dont start this again like what you did on.last Friday unprovoked. If you are still so free want to pick on.me , lets go to a seperate private forum . Pls respect the reminders by Toneefa and Moneymakers. We need a more.civilised discussion here.

Posted by CharlesT > 2021-06-28 20:29 | Report Abuse

Agreed.cease fire

Posted by pjseow > 2021-06-28 20:38 | Report Abuse

Observatory. Thanks for your reply. OK. I got it. At first I thought you completely ignored the distribution profits. Now you are giving about 4 to 5 % % such that the overall is 10 %. You know my assumption for distribution profit margin is slightly more than 20 %. This make the big difference. It is fine..We respect each others.assumption in.a civilised manner. Thanks again for the clarifications.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-06-28 20:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by invest_malaysia > 2021-06-28 20:49 | Report Abuse

Can someone here update on the petition? I taught people making huha saying results very good? Now no news d ah

Posted by ToneeFa > 2021-06-28 20:51 | Report Abuse

@pjseow Observatory. Thanks for your reply. OK. I got it. At first I thought you completely ignored the distribution profits. Now you are giving about 4 to 5 % % such that the overall is 10 %. You know my assumption for distribution profit margin is slightly more than 20 %. This make the big difference. It is fine..We respect each others.assumption in.a civilised manner. Thanks again for the clarifications.
28/06/2021 8:38 PM

Actually I have also considered 2 other factors, one is that Covid will rebound strongly within the next few months and further news on OGM deals , which will likely to sustain better ASP going forward. If Supermax could clinch a few contracts as long term strategic supplier to a few Gov't based healthcare services, that will be a great booster to its value.

Posted by GlovesOff > 2021-06-28 20:58 | Report Abuse

invest_malaysia Can someone here update on the petition? I taught people making huha saying results very good? Now no news d ah

*********************************************

you know why ? some open up multiple accounts via diff emails and signed

ok ma ahbah gave >$250 tongkat to avg down/"memulih" glove holdings