... based on the current expansion plans of existing glove manufacturers, entrant of new players and aggressive expansion by China, we believe that there is a possibility of oversupply happening in 2022. In our forecast, we expect a surplus of 40.3bn gloves in 2022 (assuming no delays/changes to the targeted expansion plans).
Despite the strong earnings growth, share prices of glove companies have underperformed due to i) widespread of vaccination globally to eradicate the pandemic, ii) lower Covid-19 cases in US and Europe, iii) allegations of abuse of foreign workers, and iv) the expected lower ASP in 2H21. In addition, glove companies are only allowed to operate at 60% workforce capacity under the Movement Control Order (MCO) from June 1 onwards until the end of Phase 1 of National Recovery Plan in Malaysia.
Meanwhile, we downgrade Supermax to Sell from buy with a lower TP of RM2.76 (previously RM6.07).
Hopefully it fluctuates between 3.23-3.61 with low volume. Possible margin call started on certain gloves today. Apart of being cheap, low PE and delta variants spreading claimed by some here. It's equally important to take note on the overall market volume, potential CBP impact and Supermax used to have RM1.00 gap vs TG. Fund managers must fulfill certain criteria before they are allow to invest certain stocks with restrictions. Of course COVID-19 is finally over one day. Please digest carefully before decide what's next Any potential spike is still worth to consider until the signs are obvious.
Chicken, my 50% mid to long term holding already in.
I was queuing at 6.91 before market even opens.
Whatever top up top down of my remaining 50% capital is for trading.
Understand mou chicken head?
invest_malaysia Very obvious now. You’re a short term trader. If you’re a long term investor as you claimed. You wouldn’t bother paying the extra 3 cents
Beary Sheesh, I was within 3 sen of getting Harta just now.
I really pity those glovers. They hold on to their believes too much. But what happen in reality is different. Is like you believe the girl likes you. And you do so much to please her. But she give you a friend zone card. And people surrounding you already told you the reality but you refuse to accept.
GloveOff and invest malaysia , US 35 for Nitrile and US 20.4 for latexx in 2023 not bad leh . That was what I expected also as I had been quoting Frost and Sullivan Research numerous times. . By 2023 supermx will have 48.billions capacity and 90 : 10 Nitrile and Latexx gloves ratio. I can do.another calculation and show you how much supermx can make per year with these ASPs. You promise me dont jump up and down attacking me ya. The earnings will be much much more than double loh because US 35 is not SLIGHTELY HIGHER or 15 % higher than US 27.6 wor . It is 26.8 % higher . I am afraid.when I show you the calculation , you guys will run amok and attack.me non.stop. hahaha.
99% of the analysts said gloves were over priced, over valued end of 2019, none has a buy call for investments. opinions and analysis should be taken with a pinch of salt, make up your own mind what is your investments windows, what is your holding capability and devise a plan to buy low and lower. over the last 20 odd years, gloves investors always smile cheek to cheek. Will it fail this round ? your guess is as good as mine. Those nay sayers, are just farting Those boom claimant, are bombastic trumpet blower. both should be ignored.
The best is over ASP has peaked in 1H21 and earnings upcycle seems to have been cut short with faster-than-expected decline in ASP in 2H21, and shorter lead time due to moderated demand for gloves on rising vaccination rates. The US CBP’s withhold release order (WRO) on Top Glove has also accelerated the decline in ASP as Top Glove is diverting orders away to other regions with lower ASPs. In recent con-calls with analysts, both Hartalega and Top Glove have guided for lower ASPs in the coming months. Intensifying competition among the existing and new players (especially the rapidly-expanding China glove producers) could further pressure ASP. According to a Frost & Sulivan report, ASPs for nitrile/latex gloves are expected to decline by -59%/-52% to USD35/20.4 per 1,000 gloves by 2023, from current USD85/42.7 per 1,000 gloves, respectively.
Invest malaysia , why are you so scared to see the earnings when Nitrile is at US 35 in 2023 as stated by.Maybank . Why so scared ? ASP US 35 for Nitrile gloves is less than half of current US75 mah?
@pjseow ... funds are shying away not only due to asp ... until now you're harping on asp, how about cbp, oversupply and fmco under production issues ?
Funds will not buy and sell once US downgraded Malaysia to the worst ranking in human trafficking
You clearly have no idea how fund works ... esg is v important
macro outlook, politics, fmco + emco .. vaccine drive ... all against the glove sentiment, you cannot just paper asp crack, there's so many ongoing issues which you conveniently ignore, it's not about PAT or FA ...
Gloveoff , when you talked about cbp., are you talking about topglove or supermx ? Be careful when you.said human trafficking. Otherwise you might get sued by the company.like how uncle tan went through.I am just responding to your message on Maybank which mentioned ASP downgrade. Maybank did not.say downgrade due to human trafficking. Pls dont create story.
@pjseow, I think your biggest issue is you seems cannot understand or interpret what others say. @glovesoff mentioned foreign funds will not buy into Malaysia equities after being downgraded by US. Which can be found in the link below.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Beary
1,553 posts
Posted by Beary > 2021-07-02 09:50 | Report Abuse
I agree with you on this.
I consider spx the dark horse.
MoneyMakers Clearly Supermx most OVERVALUED among the rest
Jump the most last year..will DROP most this year
02/07/2021 9:49 AM