Invest malaysia and glovesoff. OK.lah.. Now you said it is human trafficking, CBP.and Foreign funds not coming which cause the downgrade not ASP . I interpreted the MAY bank downgrade differently. OK.loh, why so angry ? So you mean all industries in.malaysia will be affected.since plantation, property, semicons etc use.a lot of foreign labours also. The risk of cbp.ban on these industries is also present.
I just want to do an academic exercise on supermx estimated earning based on Maybank's article about ASP for Nitrile and Latexx will drop to US 35 and 20 respectively . THis exercise has nothing to do with market pricing sentiment which may be caused by other factors like human trafficking ,CBP or foreign funds shying away as claimed by some peoples .
I had used earlier a blended ASP of US 24 as worst case scenario in my earning estimate for supermx by using margin of 10 % , capacity of 48 billions , utilization of 85 % and exchange rate of 4.15 in 2023 .
Revenue per year = 24 x 48 x 0.85 x 4.15 = 4063.68 millions
Profit = 4063 x 0.1 = 406.3 million
Now , with ASP of US 35 for Nitrile and US 20 for latexx , the blended ASP is = ( 35 x 0.9) + (20 x 0.1 ) = US 33.5 assuming nitrile/latexx ratio of 90 to 10 % .
Additional price compared with US 24 = 33.5 - 4 = US 9.5
Additional profit = 9.5 x 48 x 0.85 x 4.15 = 1608 millions Additional profit minus 25 % tax = 1608 x 0.75 = 1206 millions
Therefore total profits = 406 + 1206 = 1612 millions EPS = 1612/2720 = 59.3 sen
You can assign your own PE to this EPS
This profit is strictly supermx manufacturing profits only . I had not include the supermx Distribution Division profits yet . I also did not add the approximate rm 1 per share from the estimated few billions cash in hand plus the balance 2021 and 2022 profits which is expected to be made .
Disclaimer . THis exercise is purely academic . It is not a buy or sell call .
It is forecasted that there will be a surplus in production capacity exceeding demand by 18% in 2023, followed by a 49% surplus in production capacity by 2024, according to Vital Factor analysis.
Oversupply come as early in 2023!!! 2024 almost got 50% oversupply!!! Meaning demand 100, but market got 150!!! Very terrible situation.
Meanwhile, TA Securities Holdings Bhd analyst Tan Kong Jin wrote in a note today that based on the current expansion plans of existing glove manufacturers, entry of new players and aggressive glove production capacity expansion by China, TA Securities believes that there is a possibility of glove oversupply in 2022.
"In our forecast, we expect a surplus of 40.3 billion gloves in 2022 (assuming no delays/changes to the targeted expansion plans),” Tan said.
Invest malaysia , You.must be blind.or stupxxd. Read the message by GloveOff. Isnt his message stating funds are.shying away, funds will not buy. You kaki pusing. Yesterday caught twisting . Today.also try to twist.
Jul 2, 2021 1:49 PM | Report Abuse
@pjseow ... funds are shying away not only due to asp ... until now you're harping on asp, how about cbp, oversupply and fmco under production issues ?
Funds will not buy and sell once US downgraded Malaysia to the worst ranking in human trafficking
You clearly have no idea how fund works ... esg is v important
No one pusing here. I’m telling what glovesoff mentioned. You yourself make it complicated. Go to hxll la. Continue to hold tight tight your supermax at RM4 la
Invest malaysia . Why you worry we hold tight tight. It us our money. Will.buy some more if go below 3. Still.waiting. work harder .
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invest_malaysia No one pusing here. I’m telling what glovesoff mentioned. You yourself make it complicated. Go to hxll la. Continue to hold tight tight your supermax at RM4 la 02/07/2021 3:41 PM
Pre pandemic level coming , people all goreng genetec , hightec now 1 day earn huge capital gain no need to slaughtered by daily 10 sen dropping ! Glove is really past tense already better cut loss !
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
GlovesOff
2,499 posts
Posted by GlovesOff > 2021-07-02 14:16 | Report Abuse
Your 400-500 lots spmx , RM2M ++ dai lan sai ???
Paperloss so much d then sue sue sue ... sor sor dei one