Posted by Larn > 2021-09-08 10:23 | Report Abuse

now everyone can dream supermax price 65sen...joker of the day

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-08 10:23 | Report Abuse

Company no cash @ 3.6Bil alrdy set aside for US factory/capex..thats why div soo little

Anyway doesnt make sense for anyone to privatise @ 3++/share when can get 65sen/share nxt year

Posted by shareinvestor888 > 2021-09-08 10:24 | Report Abuse

Hope green this afternoon

Posted by chief999 > 2021-09-08 10:24 | Report Abuse

MM, pls spell LIMAU, LIMAO or LMAO? woof woof

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 10:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 10:28 | Report Abuse

Strong rebound later today!

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:29 | Report Abuse

One hour cannot break 3.1

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 10:30 | Report Abuse

So obvious RSS selling to their own!!

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:30 | Report Abuse

Tq for breaking 3.1

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:31 | Report Abuse

Now how long for 3.09. At 11.00 am perhaps

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:35 | Report Abuse

Now buying at 3.08

Posted by Keyman188 > 2021-09-08 10:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Keyman188 > 2021-09-08 10:39 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2021-09-08 10:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:45 | Report Abuse

Manusia Kunci please sell 3.08. No need to sell after dividend

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:45 | Report Abuse

Waiting to buy 3.08

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:46 | Report Abuse

Waiting to buy at 3.05

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-08 10:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-09-08 10:46 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Benhobenhobenho > 2021-09-08 10:48 | Report Abuse

@moneymakers Really!!

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:51 | Report Abuse

Waiting to buy 3.08

Posted by Keyman188 > 2021-09-08 10:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:51 | Report Abuse

Waiting patiently to buy 3.05

Posted by Keyman188 > 2021-09-08 10:52 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 10:56 | Report Abuse

The Hallelujah Serpent dropped by?

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 10:58 | Report Abuse

Waiting in the afternoon to buy at 3.08

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 10:59 | Report Abuse

It will rebound! nobody wants to miss 15sen for nothing!

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 11:02 | Report Abuse

Why nobody selling at 3.09

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 11:02 | Report Abuse

Why no roadblock at 3.1

Posted by oldbeginner > 2021-09-08 11:05 | Report Abuse

This will be the final fall for all gloves companies. No more bad story about ASP .

Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-09-08 11:09 | Report Abuse

Today is the last day to collect dividend.

Posted by HarryBodoh > 2021-09-08 11:11 | Report Abuse

Owner stanley thai tiu9u all lah

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 11:11 | Report Abuse

Orang tua yang baru belajar. How to fall, all glove companies earn billions in USD

Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-09-08 11:11 | Report Abuse

Today is the day for consolidation. No more guessing about ASP.

Posted by jacklimeu2 > 2021-09-08 11:12 | Report Abuse

Aiyo... already drop even before dividend....

Posted by chief999 > 2021-09-08 11:13 | Report Abuse

aiyo... LIMAU? LIMAO? LMAO? which is correct?

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 11:15 | Report Abuse

All negativities priced in already lah!! Just wait lah.

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 11:19 | Report Abuse

In fact china is only planning expansion. No word of execution yet. Cakap saja belum bikin!

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 11:19 | Report Abuse

Supermx short selling 215400 shares at 11.19 am

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 11:21 | Report Abuse

Topglov short selling 785800 shares at 11.21 am

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 11:24 | Report Abuse

kossan short selling 162900 shares at 11.23am

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 11:26 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-09-08 11:27 | Report Abuse

Aggressive expansion including manufacturers in China may force some smaller players turn to losses or out of business.
Panic sellers spotted in Carepls, Rubberex and Comfort. I believe the big4 will survive though profit will reduce.

Posted by DJoker89 > 2021-09-08 11:29 | Report Abuse

Collection still in progress
HOLD tight tight tight

Posted by niet > 2021-09-08 11:34 | Report Abuse

Supermx short selling 219900 at 11.32. That means someone short selled 4900 shares at 3.10 most probably. Hope to short squeeze.

Posted by Stealth > 2021-09-08 11:34 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ryan83 > 2021-09-08 11:36 | Report Abuse

Tomorrow ex date price will fall below RM3 hope got strong buying support

Posted by Starship2 > 2021-09-08 11:38 | Report Abuse

Based om market screener, the forcasted eps for FY 21, 22 and 23 would be RM1.39, RM0.68 and RM0.23..So, eventhough technicals are bearish, in terms of earnings, it seems reasonable to hold on longer in my view. As a major glove mnf with its own distribution networks in many places, it is less likely it will be pushed out of the market by the new players...who have to pass though so many hurdles when exporting to the west...

Posted by pjseow > 2021-09-08 11:50 | Report Abuse

While the markets or many short term investors might look at Harta briefing as bad news , I consider the briefings as good news .
I had anticipated the ASP to come down a few months ago and had prepared a few worst case scenario valuations using ASP of 24 , 25 and 30 . Harta CEO Kuan's statement that the ASP will stabilised at US 35 comes as a good news although it comes faster than expected . This is good because it will deter newcomers from coming in . Since glove is a volume games , many newcomers who started their ventures last year or beginning of this year will not make any money and may go bust next year. The excuse of oversupply because of newcomers will no materialise .

In FY2020 ( 8 months of prepandemic from July 2019 to Feb 2020 and 4 months of pandemic from March till June 2020 ) , Supermx has a revenue of 2131 millions and profit of 526 millions . Nett Margin was 24.7 % .
Assuming a capacity of 24 billions per year and utilization of 85 % , the ASP was 2131/4.2/24/0.85 = US 24.9 .

In CY 2020 , Supermx will have a capacity of 36 billions p.a
With ASP of US 35 ,utilization of 85 % and using a conservative 25 % margin even though the ASP is US 10 higher than FY2020 ASP ,

Projected Earning = 35 x 36 x 0.85 x 4.2 x 0.25 = 1125 millions

EPS = 1125 / 2720 = 0.413 or 41.3 sen

Since the ASP is in stabilised state , a historical PE of 15 is assigned .

Tgt price = 0.413 x 15 = RM 6.2


From then on , there is no more ASP coming down and oversupply from new comers . With the ASP of US 35 , the big 4 can compete rigorously with China new glove makers especially those Nitrile glove makers . At this price , it will spur more demands from the developing countries who are still at below 30 per capita usaga per year compared with 200 from the developed countries like US ,Canada and European countries . With the pandemic still on going , glove will grow at a rate of 12 to 15 % post pandemic based on MAARGA projections .
It will be a growth story from then on . Meanwhile enjoy the good dividends .

Disclaimer : My write up is not a buy or sell call . It is intended for sharing for serious supermx investors .

Posted by newbie8080 > 2021-09-08 11:53 | Report Abuse

@Starship2

Based on Supermax's planning capacity by end 2022 would be 48 billion.

Based on Hartalega's CEO ASP assumption at USD35 post pandemic with the 48 billion, would yield approximately EPS of 0.625.

Unlikely to go lower than that as, capacity planning would increase annually and would annual ASP growth as well.