Posted by rchi > 2021-10-12 12:43 | Report Abuse

where is pjseow's partner?

Posted by myinvestor > 2021-10-12 12:56 | Report Abuse

Flooding in northern China is hitting a major coal production center hard, sending coal prices soaring and complicating efforts by Beijing to tackle ongoing power shortage.

Heavy rains have forced the closures of 60 coal mines in Shanxi province, China's largest coal mining hub, according to a statement released Saturday by the provincial government's Emergency Management Bureau. The province is home to a quarter of the country's coal production

"China's electricity cuts will add to economic stresses, weighing on GDP growth for 2022," Moody's analysts said in a Monday report. They added that the "risks to GDP forecasts could be larger as disruptions to production and supply chains feed through."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/chinese-coal-prices-hit-record-high-and-power-cuts-continue/ar-AAPn1q4?ocid=uxbndlbing

There will further disruption of manufacturing industries esp. gloves companies which require high power to manufacture nitrile glove.

Posted by pjseow > 2021-10-12 12:58 | Report Abuse

Dear hg33 ,

I am fully aware of what you mentioned . You can see how I quoted the consensus earnings of IBs for FY 2022 ( 1730 millions ) and FY 2023 ( 880 millions ) in my previous messages . THe 1730 millions PAT is less than half of FY 2021 PAT and 880 millions PAT in FY 2023 is also about half of FY 2022 earnings. Nett NEtt, FY 2023 earning is less than one qtr of FY 2021 earning of 3815 millions . The IBs already predicted FY 2023 to be at normalised ASP of between US 26 and 28 per 1000 pcs . I supposed they arrived at

the PAT = 26 x 48 x 0.85 x 0.20 = 880 mil.

EPS = 880/2720 = 32.3 sen

It depends on what PE you want to give to the EPS of 32 sen at stabilised or normalised state . At PE of 10 , it is still worth rm 3.20 for a nett cash and growing company .

With the huge cash pile of few billions , Supermx has the cash to expand its capacity further to 70 billions or more in subsequent years after 2023 even after assuming it pay a dividend of 15 sen per qtr for another 8 qtrs . It is not wise to cut loss at such low price . I will share in my next article how supermx can still maintain a nett cash position of at leass 500 mills for the next 5 years after paying off capacity expansion to 70 billions and another at least RM 1 of dividend for next two years . Anyway , thks for your advice .

Cash is still king especially if there is a price war . Those who has long market presense and can expand its capacity by 3x without borrowing will win .


Posted by hng33 > Oct 12, 2021 12:05 PM | Report Abuse

Dear pjseow

Despite of your insistence on supermax, beware of current opportunities cost loss. Supermax current earning is mask by its earlier book prepayment contrctyal order price us is much higher than current downtrend spot price.

These earlier booked high ASP prepayment contractual orderbook will diminish in next 1 or 2 quarter. Then after, the profit will cliff down significantly to reflect actual ASP price.

Supermax real profit impact will likely stabilise only after 3 or 4 quarter next, which i think will be better time to re enter for bottom fishing and value buy for its net cash position and high dividend yield.

Posted by Habisgl0v3333 > 2021-10-12 13:00 | Report Abuse

Long long essay in coming, today sure drop kaokao

Posted by pjseow > 2021-10-12 13:05 | Report Abuse

hg33 , sorry I miss out the exchange rate of 4.15 in my previous message .
THe PAT for 2023 should be 26 x 48 x 0.85 x 4.15 x 0.2 = 880 mil where

26 is the ASP
48 billion is the capacity
0.85 is the utilizataion rate
4.15 is the exchange rate
0.2 is the nett margin

Posted by munfatt2000 > 2021-10-12 13:08 | Report Abuse

Supermax good record - profit for 20yrs

supermax Jun 21 - NTA RM 1.82

CASH IN HAND RM 1.40

EPS FY 2021 RM 1.46

DPS FY 2021 RM 0.3180

Posted by munfatt2000 > 2021-10-12 13:10 | Report Abuse

SHORTIES SLOGAN "CUT LOSS"

7-8 cut loss

5-6 cut loss

2 also cut loss

1 also cut loss

0.1 also cut loss

maybe 0.01 also ask u to cutloss

those Morron shorties really brainless

everyday scam ppl cutloss

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 13:12 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by munfatt2000 > 2021-10-12 13:13 | Report Abuse

11 Oct short position 70 Mil

HOW SHORTIES COVER BACK 70 MIL?

HOW SHORTIES COVER BACK 70 MIL?

HOW SHORTIES COVER BACK 70 MIL?

SCARE U AND ASK U CUTLOSS SELL CHEAP TO THEM

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 13:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Maridien2 > 2021-10-12 13:16 | Report Abuse

Covid-19 cases in the UK remain far higher than in the rest of Europe, the latest figures show. Only a handful of European countries, such as Romania and Serbia, are currently reporting higher Covid case rates than the UK, with states such as France and Germany reporting significantly lower figures.

As of 8 October, Covid case rates in the UK stood at over 500 daily cases per million people while those in Spain, German and France remained below 100.

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 13:16 | Report Abuse

ya good

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 13:16 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Maridien2 > 2021-10-12 13:22 | Report Abuse

Why we must not allow COVID to become endemic in New Zealand

As New Zealand switches from elimination to suppression, those who argue that COVID-19 will become endemic and part of our lives either do not understand or ignore what this would actually mean.

Elimination has always been a tricky word because it implies eradication. But we have only ever eradicated one human disease — smallpox — and are close with several others.

For some, the end of elimination now means we should let the virus spread. But semantics matter less than policy. If we don’t eliminate, we must still aim to contain, mop up, reduce close to zero and thwart this pandemic.

Because we certainly cannot live with endemic SARS-CoV-2.

https://theconversation.com/why-we-must-not-allow-covid-to-become-endemic-in-new-zealand-169608

Posted by Maridien2 > 2021-10-12 13:24 | Report Abuse

Delta is nothing like the flu

Our most common endemic infections include the common cold

Those who dismiss a mild case of COVID-19 as being “no worse than the flu” have forgotten how appalling a case of flu really is. They might also have forgotten that, even with effective vaccination, influenza has a case fatality risk of about 0.1% — it kills about 500 people in New Zealand each year.

Yet some seem to expect that COVID-19 will learn to behave and become endemic. Some even seem to welcome this, claiming a “disease becomes endemic when it is manageable”.

This is not true. Being manageable is not part of the definition of endemic disease. A disease becomes endemic when it is more or less always present in a population. It does not care whether it is manageable.

Posted by munfatt2000 > 2021-10-12 13:26 | Report Abuse

OH MORRON CITAXXXX666

POOR GUY

Posted by Maridien2 > 2021-10-12 13:26 | Report Abuse

Seasonal influenza has a basic reproduction number (R0) of about 1.5, meaning one infected person spreads the disease to fewer than two other people, on average. This is why it takes very little to break the chain of transmission. The annual flu epidemic declines because we have effective vaccines and because seasonal conditions during summer are less favourable to the survival of the virus.

However, as we already mentioned, the Delta variant has an R0 of at least six. This will be as low as it gets from here onward. If a new variant supplants Delta, it will do so because it is even more transmissible.

There will be no season for COVID-19, no breaks in transmission, no declines in infectiousness. We have been struggling worldwide with this virus for 18 months, with spikes everywhere in every season.

https://theconversation.com/why-we-must-not-allow-covid-to-become-endemic-in-new-zealand-169608

Posted by Maridien2 > 2021-10-12 13:30 | Report Abuse

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, Merck’s new antiviral drug Molnupiravir will be an important addition to the toolkit because it will be much cheaper than monoclonal antibodies, easy to store, easy to transport and people can take it at home.

The as yet unpublished trials suggest the treatment could cut hospitalisations in half, markedly improving outcomes for those already infected. But it will not reduce the number of cases by even one.

Treatment never does — only prevention, public health measures and vaccination reduce case numbers. Those who are less sick and treated at home could spread the virus even more.

If COVID-19 becomes endemic, when the healthcare system fails to accommodate the latest wave, more people will die.

Posted by CoolBull > 2021-10-12 13:40 | Report Abuse

well, malaysian kabinet gagal #2 (recycled waste product from kabinet gagal #1) is taking a helluva big risk opening up & loosening up everything when daily infection rate is still in high 4 digits

Posted by Knm_bottomed > Oct 11, 2021 12:53 AM | Report Abuse

https://m.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/china-prepares-for-possible-large-scale-covid-19-outbreak-leaked-ccp-documents_4041025.html/amp?__twitter_impression=true

Get ready for big Delta wave. 100k cases a day for Malaysia possible!

Posted by Jason85 > Oct 11, 2021 1:20 AM | Report Abuse

Wtf 100k case?

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 13:41 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 13:41 | Report Abuse

or u also eat gloves to protect urself???

Posted by CoolBull > 2021-10-12 13:41 | Report Abuse

when israel opened up & loosened up everything in march 2021, they had already achieved 16 infections per day

by september 1, they had climbed back up to 10,000 infections per day

when singapore opened up & loosened up everything in may 2021, they were already on 2 digit infections per day

on saturday 9 october 2021, they had climbed back up to record high 3,703 infections per day

Posted by CoolBull > 2021-10-12 13:42 | Report Abuse

so you think MARGMA is a bullkrapping fearmongering association, just like shorting cartel boys & girls gang la

can simply be spouting bullkrap out of their arrse just like you all for the media to publish la

okay la, whatever you say la hor, everything you say must be correct la

hor

Posted by Snowpiercer > Oct 9, 2021 9:58 AM | Report Abuse

Who are members of MARGMA? Sure say got shortfall. The fact i think it's not. And such a low tech industry, low barrier to entry, no competitive advantage.

Posted by CoolBull > 2021-10-12 13:44 | Report Abuse

Rubber glove industry lobbying for special reinvestment allowance in Budget 2022

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/rubber-glove-industry-hopes-reinvestment-allowance-budget-2022

Posted by CoolBull > 2021-10-12 13:45 | Report Abuse

yep, precisely, the frontliners always gonna be there

Posted by Starship2 > Oct 10, 2021 2:08 PM | Report Abuse

Gloves are usually one-time use product..My feeling is even covid becames "endemic", fear of contacting the disease, especially for medical staff will always be there...and using them is also hygenic...So the practice of using gloves that peaked due to covid will not decrease very quickly in my view.....

Posted by hng33 > 2021-10-12 14:17 | Report Abuse

Pjseow

In your analysis, net profit margin need to adjust near to pre pandemic margin which is more important than adpot prepandemuc ASP. In time of inflation, many raw material have hike, rubber, electricity, gas, butadiene, packaging, transportation cargo charge etc. Bear in mind, pre pandemic net profit margin only range 4% to 6%, even with cost pass through clause, if compared to your assumption of 20%. For more optimistic, 10% net profit is more likely in view of higher capacity volume for larger economy of scale, modern automation for cost saving.

Posted by pjseow > 2021-10-12 14:49 | Report Abuse

hng 33 , If you look at the FY 2019 ( July 2019 to June 2019 ) and FY 2020 ( July 2019 to June 2020 ) Financial numbers , the nett margin were 8.3 % and 24.7 % respectively .

FY 2019 ( 100 % pre pandemic )

ASP USD 19.7
Revenue 1488 millions
PAT 124 millions
Nett Margin 8.3 %


FY 2020 ( 8 months pre pandemic and 4 months pandemic )

ASP USD 25.5
Revenue 1488 millions
PAT 526 millions
Nett Margin 24.7 %

In my opinion , the nett margin will not go back to the 8.3 % at prepandemic era due to following reasons .

1. THe 22.4 new expanded capacity is 100 % Nitrile . THe Nitrile ratio
will increase from FY 2019 of 52 % to more than 80 % in 2023 .Nitrile ASP and Nett Margin are higher compared with Latexx gloves . FUrthermore the equipments purchased are the latest state of the art fully automated machines with very effective manpower utilization of only 1.7 worker per million .

2. Supermx had changed its business model since March 2020 by eliminating the middlemen like agents , dealers etc . About half of its capacity are sold direct to FInal customers at Distribution price which is much higher .
The last 2 FY ,Supermx has the highest margin among the big 4 despite the capacity still at 22 and 24 billions respectively .The trick comes from the changed business model .

3. THe blended ASP will not go back to the pre pandemic era of less than 20 . THis is a consensus among the MARGMA members and IBs . EVEN the super negative JP MOrgan also projected USD 26 as the normalised ASP in 2023 and agreed that the margin will be double than the pre pandemic era .

4. If in FY 2020 when the ASP was at US 25.5 , the nett margin is 24.7 %. Using 20 % as nett margin projection is not overly aggressive and optimistic . IF the ASP can come down to USD 26 from the high of about 80 to 90, the raw materials will also come down correspondingly .

Projections are projections whether it will be correct or not . It is a question of judgement and company business strategy.

Posted by kotatata > 2021-10-12 14:51 | Report Abuse

average down til back to normal ;)

Posted by pjseow > 2021-10-12 14:52 | Report Abuse

hng33 ,

Sorry , a correction .

FY 2020 REvenue is 2131 millions not 1488 millions .

Posted by danny5678 > 2021-10-12 14:53 | Report Abuse

fight till last blood... gogogo

Posted by hng33 > 2021-10-12 15:03 | Report Abuse

Global re-open economy, hike crude oil, Inflation, higher interest rate, China nitrile capacity expansion will cause raw material, expecially butadine, a petrochemical product from crude oil will remain elevated. Input cost increase + ASP on downtrend = lower net profit margin

Posted by hng33 > 2021-10-12 15:08 | Report Abuse

Pjseow, its best to await for next few Q ahead, after all supermax one off high ASP pre-prepayment contractual order book fulfill, earning to start reflect real spot market ASP, then to decide on re- enter level next year for its sustainanable ASP forward.

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-10-12 15:10 | Report Abuse

Glovers paralysed at current price..alrdy 50%++ loss - too late to exit

Now just have to ride the wave all the way..prepare final destination 65sen (prepandemic price)

Posted by hng33 > 2021-10-12 15:20 | Report Abuse

Nevertheless, short term small catayst may prevail if supermax able to repeat last year one off share dividend to distrbute all its balance treasury share these month.

Posted by Maxsuper > 2021-10-12 15:29 | Report Abuse

... I seriously suspect pjseow is a computer..

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 15:29 | Report Abuse

drop 99!!!! hahaha

Posted by Start_0f_the_bull > 2021-10-12 15:40 | Report Abuse

Funny. Kossan is not following Supermax price today.

Posted by FairTalk > 2021-10-12 15:45 | Report Abuse

Hi Hng33,

As for your statement that "Supermax real profit impact will likely stabilise only after 3 or 4 quarter next, which i think will be better time to re enter for bottom fishing and value buy for its net cash position and high dividend yield".

It is never easy to time bottom fishing.

Past experience showed that market would unexpectedly move ahead and caught you by surprise.

To wait after 3 or 4 quarters would you not miss the lucrative dividend payouts by Supermx not to mention the high possibility of free distribution of the treasury shares.

This is why at any period of time there is always a pool of loyal shareholders as they do not to miss the goodies distributed by the company.

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-10-12 15:53 | Report Abuse

Gloves stock endgame...!

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 15:55 | Report Abuse

end game long time ago lor, left ikan hangus here everyday dreaming for miracle

Posted by GlovesOff > 2021-10-12 16:01 | Report Abuse

@FAIRYGODMOTHER

High Possibility??? You BODirectors kah ....
****************************
you not miss the lucrative dividend payouts by Supermx not to mention the high possibility of free distribution of the treasury shares.

Loyal but LOSING shareholders
*************
a pool of loyal shareholders

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 16:04 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 16:04 | Report Abuse

then u all happy lor haha

Posted by MoneyMakers > 2021-10-12 16:14 | Report Abuse

Really the best if coming QR only give treasury shares & no cash div..ultimate kiasu..will make price drop faster

Posted by pjseow > 2021-10-12 16:18 | Report Abuse

What is market ? A market must consist of willing buyers and willing sellers . In an uptrend market , the sellers is not optimistic the price will go higher . In the meantime , the buyers are optimistic and think that the price will go higher . Similarly , in a downtrend market , the sellers are pessimistic while the buyers are optimistic .
There are always two opposite parties to make a transaction . There is no right or wrong . Only time will tell .
In Oct last year , all IBs are super optimistic and give buy calls with super high valuation and tgt prices . Sentiments were super postive and glove counters were all time high with super high PE .The tgt prices are ridiculously high at more than 30 . Many who followed the IBs recommendations were caught off guard when the prices started tumbling while glove makers continued to make record profits in Nov ,Dec 2020 and Feb ,May and even August 2021 . It was a great mistakes for those who do not look at the fundamentals and followed the IBs super positive sentiments .

Today , it is in reverse gear , All IBs are super negatives even though just two months ago in August , Kossan ,Harta and Supermx still made record profits . PE s are at record low . Do investors learn any lesson by following the majority sentiments ?

Are we surprised why out of 10 investors , 7 lost money , 2 breakeven and only one make money ? Herd's mentality still prevail ?

As Charlier Munger said " the big money is not in the buying and selling but in the waiting ,

Posted by GlovesOff > 2021-10-12 16:20 | Report Abuse

Charlier Munger got buy GLOVES ???

the more you wait the more you LOSE haha

Posted by Benhobenhobenho > 2021-10-12 16:20 | Report Abuse

Why la, superman so weak, cannot fly nowadays. Everyone expecting u to wake up from your slumber. Come on, u can do it again.

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 16:22 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Citadel666 > 2021-10-12 16:22 | Report Abuse

I help build a cave for u to hide la

Posted by Bgt 9963 > 2021-10-12 16:39 | Report Abuse

Down trend...!