Anyone who can attend their coming AGM, the following questions need to be asked. Or if the management is proactive enough, have a deep think about it and engage the analyst community:
1. What is the impact of Gintech, Solartech and NSP merger on the solar segment demand outlook considering SolarTech is a JV partner in TS SolarTech and buys most of the cell. Supply chain consolidation was flagged as a key area of synergy for the merger of the parents, and what if TS SolarTech have been marked for phase-out from the supply chain, this is material information for shareholders.
2. What is the percentage of current shipment from the remaining lines are going to the US; and the forecasted impact of the 30% tariff. Did TS SolarTech's customer build up module inventory shipment to US in the last few months and will this leads to slowdown in orders for the remainder of this year.
3. Are the concentrated effort to build market to the rest of the world to fill the anticipated fall in demand from the United States, and when will these materialise into order books.
Without clear information from the management, I would recommend that investors looking into their forthcoming Q4'17 results to discount any improvements in Solar business segment as the effect of question (2) above which is due to a one off effect of building tariff free inventory into US and will leads to underperformance in Q'18 onwards.
I won't say they are cons. The previous run up were driven by fundamentals (conversion to solar cell manufacturer). They were too aggressive (building a big new plant) but slow to react when the market shifts. Ended up pretty ugly (short notice termination of employees, firing off people by SMSs etc that made the press). At least they were able to off load 1 manufacturing line rather than let it idle by selling it back to the manufacturer (I found that recognizing it as revenue is a bit funny). Now there is a new, very negative shift in the fundamental of their solar segment which is suppose to drive revenue and profit going forward; and I'm not convinced that they have a game plan.
SolarTech (JV Partner) Financials - Revenue (x100M NTD) / MoM% / YoY% / Accumulated Annual Revenue / Accumulated Annual Rev YoY% January 3.88 -22.16% -65.13% 3.88 -65.13% February 4.49 15.74% -51.15% 8.37 -58.80% March 4.59 2.32% -58.96% 12.96 -58.86% April 5.32 15.75% -50.82% 18.27 -56.80% May 5.98 12.62% -35.58% 24.26 -53.02% June 6.71 12.19% -34.08% 30.98 -49.89% July 6.15 -8.37% -7.36% 37.13 -45.77% August 5.36 -12.91% -7.96% 42.49 -42.80% September 6.23 16.39% 38.85% 48.73 -38.15% October 5.82 -6.64% 26.27% 54.56 -34.58% November 3.61 -37.98% -50.96% 58.17 -35.91% December 4.65 28.75% -6.65% 62.82 -34.39% January 4.35 -6.47% 12.17% 4.35 12.17%
Q317 1774M NTD Q417 1408M NTD
Plus January is sequential drop as well. Hard to see any good news. Even if there are some adjustment for a good Q4 numbers, the solar segment will find it tough to turn around.
Few more questions for investors going to their AGM: 1. What is their roadmap for the solar segment? In a world going towards PERC cell technology, they are continue to make non-PERC cells while depreciating relatively new production line.
2. Do they have any plans for CAPEX for retooling to PERC? Their new parent UREC (Gintech, Solartech and NSP merged entitiy which will comes into being officially in March) is going to be PERC heavy, and any legacy capacity especially not wholly owned will be in danger.
I doubt they have any plans other than keep on making the same thing.
Anyone holding may as well just write off the solar part and value the counter just based on the other segments.
I was wondering how is it possible to make a such huge turnaround. And after some digging, the results come out!!
Profit RM24m Compensation received from a customer * RM59.7m So don't count this one off compensation = (RM35m)
* Compensation amount comprised mainly the agreed payment of damages/ liquidated damages by a customer who failed to load minimum order quantity of solar cells to TS Solartech Sdn. Bhd., a subsidiary of the Company pursuant to the terms and conditions of a manufacturing and supply of solar cell contract dated 8 October 2015 between TS Solartech Sdn. Bhd. and the said customer.
Don't need to dig, the reason is in the quarterly report.
60M is compensation. This is a one off payment and not recurring. So next quarter will get 0 compensation.
Without that, solar segment is a 11M loss in Q4 and will continue to bleed money. That is the nature of Solar business in 2018.
Every other segment is doing worse in terms of revenue; and have been under invested and neglected over the last few years as Solar drains management attention.
Nett profit is lower because management took the chance to pay off debt with the compensation. Chinaman will love this "debt free company".
Hard reality is the management is out of ideas and have absolutely no idea where to invest in.
Module line investment used to be a no brainer. Now it could well be a much bigger drain of money.
Someone please ask this to then at the coming AGM. Can't join as far away from Penang.
Will take this chance to sell into (temporary) strength
Actually the problem is we can't even look at SolarTech (Taiwan) results as reference anymore as they are loading minimally to Tek Seng fab, and rather pay the compensation for not loading.
Options for Solar Segment is not pretty after SolarTech merged.
TS can build module lines (more capex) and try to sell the modules themselves. They have no offices and distribution channels inside and outside Malaysia (it was all down by SolarTech). They will invest and not get anything going for years and years.
Or they can look for buyers of solar cells - but most players are integrated with both solar cell and module factory together and don't need their products.
Their non-PERC cells is no longer competitive and they cannot invest on upgrades alone without partner as their partner is no longer interested and other potential partners from Taiwan have all merged with each other.
They have a huge building for at least 8 lines. They put in 4 lines and have to sell one back. 3 lines, not loaded much,paying for the whole building's depreciation.
Only nice thing about TS is 0 debt. Flip side of it is its not going to do any expansion to save them from this tough situation.
Another problem with Malaysian stocks is no obligation to inform shareholders on a quarterly basis. That's why I encourage anyone who can go to their AGM to ask some really tough questions.
It cannot go up in the near future. But it is highly possible to drop Gao gao for their poor segment result. If you are so zai enough, please go and buy it.
This counter did have great potential, but probably the wrong strategy and the wrong partner. At least they should still get some money from their partner if they choose not to load. But that's not a long term strategy (if it could be called a strategy)
The best exit plan will be to look for another strategic partner. There are very limited global company wiling to continue invest in Malaysia (even less who want to invest in a 3rd party manufacturing partner). But there is still, and surprisingly for highly integrated companies, solar manufacturing in Malaysia is still competitive vs their China operations.
Hint: Look for partner who can use the 210 MW as installed, and jointly invest to build it up to 560MW+. The carrot is they lower the partner's CAPEX, and TS finds a buyer for its cells. Module capacity are way cheaper and easier to build so let someone handle that.
Cannot... Industry insider.. plenty of conflict of interest. Actually there are a few companies that could benefit with a cell factory in Malaysia (for European volume, now we are taxed for US as well). There is no need to go it alone.
The MD actually is doing a pretty good job keeping cost down - previous benchmark their labour costs are very low - that is why I believe they could be a good fit even for mainland Chinese firms. The only problem for us trying to valuate them externally is that the clause for compensation in their contract with SolarTech and if it forbids them from partnering with other players (the Management should really go renegotiate that)
Based on the last few media updates breakdown on overall revenue and shipment numbers they were competitive, but they stopped talking and the market have become very different over the last 1-2 years. We really need some good answers from their management; and good questions to get them to buck up and deliver.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Abilakh
376 posts
Posted by Abilakh > 2018-01-23 09:55 | Report Abuse
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/trump-slaps-steep-us-tariffs-imported-washers-solar-panels