Better quarters to come ■ 1HFY6/19 net profit of RM13.1m (+29.2% yoy) was within our expectations. ■ We expect stronger quarters in 2HFY19, especially from increased contribution from facilities, environment and rail divisions. ■ Maintain Add with an unchanged SOP-based TP of RM1.26. 2QFY6/19 net profit rose 15.4% qoq; boosted by rail segment 2QFY6/19 revenue rose 25.5% qoq, mainly owing to higher contribution from all divisions as well as maiden contribution from its rail segment. 2QFY19 EBITDA margins were also stronger at 15% (+0.8% pt qoq) given higher contribution from higher-profit margin segments: engineering, environmental and rail. This resulted in 2QFY19 core net profit rising to RM7.0m (+15.4% qoq) despite an increase in both interest costs (>100% qoq) and tax rate (+1.2% pts qoq). 1HFY6/19 net profit of RM13.1m (+29.2% yoy) was in line 1HFY6/19 revenue and core net profit rose to RM154.4m (+14.8% yoy) and RM13.1m (+29.2% yoy), respectively. The stronger 1HFY19 performance was mainly attributed to higher revenue recorded from both the facilities and environment divisions. 1HFY19 EBITDA margin also improved to 14.6% (+2.6% pts yoy) with increased contribution from the environment division (higher profit margin segment). While 1HFY19 net profit formed 45.8% of our FY19F, we deem this in line as we expect stronger 2HFY19 results ahead. All divisions are performing well The facilities division was the most profitable segment in 1HFY19, with a PBT of RM10.4m (+8.4% yoy). This was thanks to the commencement of new facilities projects and recognition of critical asset refurbishment programme (CARP). The environment division’s 1HFY19 PBT also improved 48.1% yoy to RM5.8m from higher progress billings. The engineering division also recorded higher 1HFY19 PBT of RM2.5m (+40.8% yoy) due to better cost control efforts and more projects undertaken. Orderbook remains robust In 2QFY19, AWC began to incorporate contribution from its rail segment, which posted a revenue of RM8.3m and PBT of RM3.1m. In this segment, AWC currently has an orderbook of RM73m for the next two years. Including its rail segment, its total order book stood at RM1bn (as of 1 Jan 19), also consisting of contracts in facilities division (RM627m), engineering division (RM140m) and environment division (RM163m). Maintain Add With 1HFY19 earnings in line, we make no changes to our earnings estimates. Our Add rating and target price of RM1.26 (11.3x CY20 P/E) are also maintained. At 9.2x CY20 P/E, we believe the stock’s risk-reward profile is attractive. Moving forward, we expect AWC’s share price to move higher in tandem with more contract wins and stronger earnings delivery in 2HFY19F. Downside risks are contract execution delays and weaker than- expected orderbook replenishment.
Mr Market is not rationale and is emotional. Outlook for 2019 is positive from all biz segments but need to be watchful for project delays and collections/receivables. Another key risk is Concession termination by Govt which will come with compensation (like what is happening now with toll concessions). Have to also account for Trackworks profit guarantee of RM8mil and RM12mil for the next 2 years which will be positive for EPS. I will continue to accumulate on price dips.
I say if 2 circumstances fulfilled then tomorrow fly:
1. Dow spikes 0.5 and above. 2. Tomorrow Bursa no crash due to TENAGA. CIMB/QL/AIRPORT/IHH/GENM/GENTING can probably tank though. So as long as Dow good, all good I suppose.
The next 2 quarters will be defining. If earnings can be sustainable with good growth along with new projects being awarded then the price should be at least RM1.26 per CIMB report. The inclusion of a new majority / strategic shareholder like EPF will certainly add more catalyst to the share price.
There has huge volume to block in every single price. It depends on how you see it. If you want to sell the share, sure you will Q to sell it at higher price to get maximum gain.
For me, the huge Q volume to sell is to block the share price from increase. Most simple reason is someone would like to collect it at lower price.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
foreverchung
854 posts
Posted by foreverchung > 2019-02-27 09:33 | Report Abuse
Operator press down.