Gadang has received a Letter of Acceptance from Cyberview Sdn Bhd to undertake design-and-build jobs for Cyberjaya Hospital (288 beds) for a contract sum of RM475mn.
Our View This is Gadang’s first job win in FY18 and third job secured in CY18, totaling RM1.6bn YTD. This has boosted its estimated outstanding construction order book to RM2.0bn, translating into 7.2x FY17 construction revenue. This is expected to provide earnings visibility to the construction division for the next 3 to 4 years.
Assuming an operating margin of 10%, we expect the project to generate a net profit of RM36.1mn, or 5.4sen/share throughout the construction period. In near term, Gadang could potentially benefit from the rolling out of mega construction projects such as LRT 3, East Coast Rail Line, Gemas-JB Double Track and Pan Borneo Highway (Sabah). Given its decent track record and experience in MRT line 1, we see Gadang as a front-runner for LRT 3 work package, which is estimated to cost between RM800mn to RM1.0bn per elevated civil work package.
Impact This new job win in the second month of FY18 has almost filled up our FY18 order book replenishment assumptions of RM500mn. Given that Gadang is one of the front-runners for LRT 3 work packages and various mega projects to be awarded in the foreseeable future, we raise our FY18 order book replenishment assumptions from RM500mn to RM1.0bn. Consequently, we raise FY18/FY19/FY20 earnings forecasts by 6.7%/12.2%/20.4% respectively.
Valuation Following the revision in earnings forecasts, we raise Gadang’s target price from RM1.57 to RM1.75. Maintain BUY call on the stock. SOP valuation (RMmn) Rem
Yes so much job win even before the latest hospital contracts. But why the share price does not reflect it. Is it bcoz all contracts are long term 5-7 years contracts? That's why mgmt trying to keep it secret on the duration?
Based from my analysis of GKENT which bagged multiple Hospital awards, the duration is approximately 3-4 years.
To my opinion, why Gadang failed to catch up with its peers in construction is due to these :
- the CEO / management of Gadang do not hold many shares in the company ( total combined just about 25% of shares). This makes the % free float in the market is about 75%.
- lack of interest from fund managers buying into Gadang eg support from EPF / PNB/ local and international funds
- total number of shares now approx 650mil. This is quite enormous sum as a few cents increase in share price will trigger a sell easily.
- cheap valuation of Gadang at RM 1.20+, easily and enabled contra players to buy in small ampount of shares and sell easily too ( as compared to expensive companies eg KESM RM 15.00 whereby small contra players will be having difficulties in buying / selling it)
this hospital project already blew for months. basically no more a surprise to the market. instead it is a sell on news. if mother can close at this level and stay for days then mother is considered back on track. but son is till weak.
Price Suppressed mean got somebody willing to buy a lot of share on short team and low price and it will release the value after "MEGA" good news make announcement !!!
I'm now really confused, why price suppressed mean good things will happen? Wouldn't price suppressed mean investors sell down the stocks on the pretext bad things will happen.
Gadang has "MISS" a uptrend train 2 time already, 1st is MRT2 and 2nd is Cyberjaya hospital contract awards, this time LRT3 good news announced is time to show a good performance uptrend for us.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
sosfinance
1,305 posts
Posted by sosfinance > 2017-08-06 21:34 | Report Abuse
voting machine vs weighing machine principle.