Posted by tslee > 2018-03-13 16:08 | Report Abuse

Always looks like undervalued but once entered, kena trapped.

Posted by tslee > 2018-03-13 16:10 | Report Abuse

It will rebounded one day and subsequently decline slowly to below 1.34

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-13 17:22 | Report Abuse

Haha, thanks for your concern.

Personally, i don't get trapped. If i buy a house that yields 8%, which is more than enough to cover loan. And the price drops making it yield 10%. I'm not going to shout i got trapped. Ill just buy another one.

The lower the price goes, the more i like it, as long as fundamentals remain.

Its easy to maintain this mindset, if you don't look at your portfolio everyday, use cash only, and use super long term money only.

If you cannot maintain this mindset, i would suggest you either leave the market, or become a trader and lose money like 90% of them (or be the 10% that really make money).

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-03-13 18:27 | Report Abuse

Well said Jon Choivo! While we don't understand why the price keep falling when the fundamentals still mantain but as long as we keep our mindset right it dropped more is better to let us get this gem cheap.... don't forget there is another at least 3 sen final dividends that they going to announce at next quarter will bring the D/Y to higher!

Posted by DroidnPlay > 2018-03-14 11:07 | Report Abuse

There are traders out there who can make quick money better than master ColdEye, so they despise long term investment.

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-03-14 12:58 | Report Abuse

Quick money come with higher risk...buy good undervalued stocks amd keep for few years u sure win!

Posted by DroidnPlay > 2018-03-14 16:39 | Report Abuse

Ya u r rite, business still run as usual despite the share sell down, fundamentally business outlook doesn't change at all, in fact we can see qtr after qtr makes profit, somemore money lending business always WIN one. Look at my neigbor AhLong, every years change big car.

Posted by Jun Yu > 2018-03-14 18:30 | Report Abuse

RM250/RM1330=18.79%

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-14 18:50 | Report Abuse

Junyu, can you explain how you got return of RM250. Last financial year, only declared 3c dividend. Thank you.

Posted by Jun Yu > 2018-03-14 18:53 | Report Abuse

eps=25sec, 1000unit=RM250 cost of 1000unit = RM1330 for now

Posted by issac99289928 > 2018-03-14 23:20 | Report Abuse

major shareholder should do something about ESOS. ESOS is overissued and ESOS price is simply too low. issue price at $0.64 is low.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-03-14 23:53 | Report Abuse

For TA to move you must know this

Tony Tiah has been buying TA at first when it was cheap.

And then he switched to buying TAGB because it is also very cheap Price to Book Value

Once done buying both TA & TAGB will unlock Value & both will go up!

Last time Calvin told Johor Buddies to buy RceCap at 27.5 Sen when Calvin saw Datuk Hashim of AmBank buying RceCap.

As it turned out Chun Chun later RceCap gave a 7.5 Sen Cash Payout & merged 4 to 1 shares

So 27.5 sen - 7.5 sen = 20 sen

20 x 4 = 80 sen (after merger}

Then RceCap powered up to Rm1.60 (Up 100%) & Calvin told all to sell.

Only then Mr. Market took notice (too late!!) & chased RceCap to Rm1.90

After that RceCap retraced to below Rm1.40

SO WHEN VETERAN LIKE DATUK HASHIM & TONY TIAH ARE BUYING YOU LEARN TO BUY LIKE THEM WHEN MARKET IS DOWN & THINGS ARE QUIET LIKE NOW

ONCE TA & TAGB POWER UP YOU CAN EXPECT MR MARKET TO GO GAGA OVER TA JUST LIKE HE DID WITH RCECAP AT OVER RM1.60

IT WAS: IT HAS BEEN & IT WILL BE THE BEHAVIOR OF THE 80% MASSES

THEY ONLY TAKE NOTICE AFTER VALUE HAS EMERGED!!!

SMART MONEY TAKE POSITION "BEFORE" VALUE EMERGE!!

NOT "AFTER" VALUE HAS EMERGED!!!

Posted by joetay > 2018-03-14 23:55 | Report Abuse

but ta only got stockbroking license, nothing else.

so how to go up, stupid clown calvintaneng???

lol.............

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-03-15 01:02 | Report Abuse

What u trying to talk here calvintaneng? Please talk something related to rcecap only thx lol...

Posted by DroidnPlay > 2018-03-15 09:17 | Report Abuse

whoooaaa, are you telling us to Sell now? What is your justification, mind to share?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-15 11:33 | Report Abuse

Again, when calvin is selling you stuff, he always conveniently forgets to tell you the expected time frame.

I'm ok with TA and TAGB as a asset play. It is pretty good actually and meets my criteria of less than 30% of RNAV.

But as i said, if you pluck out the investment income, they barely made anything compared to how much was invested.

If TA is the kind that wants to unlock value, they should just sell all the hotels and give back the money, hotels are just rubbish as a business.

Having said that, TA and TAGB is in my portfolio as a net asset play at like 4% total for both. They are alot of net asset plays in the bursa after all.

As an investor, he only looks at what is quantifiable. Forgetting that, not everything of worth is quantifiable and not everything that can be quantified is of worth.

He is the kind that would sell off public bank at RM3 for a company selling at 50% of NTA.

He is the kind that would pass one See's Candy because its at 2x book value, for the sake of a retail company selling below liquidation value. Which was the opposite of the choice WB and Munger would have made. Schloss on the other hand would choose the retail company. Not a problem.

Except, Calvin is a salesman. That means he will only tell what he wants you to know, and not the complete story. As long as it fits his narrative, he will say the good things. If it does not fit his version of the truth, he will ignore the facts. Like when he said Airsia was rubbish and will die at RM2.1.

He is also retired. So everyday can write story.

Anyway, need to go back to work. Calvin, just write more lah, here or there anywhere also can.

The only thing you even have a chance of affecting is the price, all your writing can never affect the intrinsic value.

You talk it down, ill just buy more. You talk it up, ill just sell. Not bad, got free worker that i'm not paying anything for! Haha.

Posted by joetay > 2018-03-15 11:51 | Report Abuse

u got the rite idea, jon.

just do the opposite of what clown coward calvintaneng says, saves u a lot of hassle.

lol..........

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-15 22:05 | Report Abuse

Hi Jon Choivo, good write up.about Calvin. Haha. You saw,him through and through. He is salesman. He just passes on to us what he want to write. What he is up.to when asking us to buy we really don't know. Good one, Jon Choivo..

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-15 22:06 | Report Abuse

Hi Jon Choivo, at these prices, should we accumulate more rcecap??'thank you.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-15 22:12 | Report Abuse

No comment. It works for me, it may not work for you. I think there is a significant discount to intrinsic value. And i love the business.

I have a minimum 3 year perspective. So this may not apply to you.

I personally bought a little more, but they are other companies i'm buying up now as my exposure to RCE is already 22%.



Posted by TakeProfits > Mar 15, 2018 10:06 PM | Report Abuse

Hi Jon Choivo, at these prices, should we accumulate more rcecap??'thank you.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-15 22:47 | Report Abuse

Thanks Jon. I bought some at 1.33. In terms of target price, any comments?
I am newbie to this stock. I also see lots of potential this stock!!

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-15 22:49 | Report Abuse

Hope rce can run like aeoncr!! Let's hope recap do the right things with yearly improvements...then will reflect in the price..
Thanks Jon

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-15 22:55 | Report Abuse

My estimate of FV is 2.46. That's as much as ill say.

You can read my article on the valuation of financial institutions to find out how i do my valuation roughly.

I wont write a post on RCECAP as i don't want to push up my own cost price. I think (somewhat arrogantly) that its on a matter of time it hits my target. Id like to collect it till then.

I've spoken too much as it is on this company. Haha

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-15 23:04 | Report Abuse

Thanks very much Jon...
But disappointed that it can't perform like aeon cr in terms of share price.
But your target if can.be achieved in next few years would be good. Thanks and good night.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-15 23:40 | Report Abuse

Jon, what are your thoughts about Krono!?. If you know this stock and if you are following this stock. Thank you.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-16 00:21 | Report Abuse

I do not have that share. But i studied it before. And i used to watch it with sadness by the sidelines as i just could not buy it as the valuation is a little rich for me.

For it to be worth 20PE, a company must be capable of growing at 20% per annum for 10 years.

Krono is in cloud storage for enterprise basically. How can they ensure that they will not be murdered by Microsoft, Apple, Dropbox, IBM and Amazon etc. Locally we even have TIMECOM.

Is it hard to change providers, i don't think so.

Will they have economy of scale? Not as much as amazon or microsoft or apple or dropbox i think.

Is price a main contention point for providers like them? Maybe not, maybe reliability is key. In which case, why are they better than amazon, microsoft etc.

Are they the best service provider at the best price? I don't think so. Personally, if anyone wants 20 PE, they must have a gigantic moat, and good resilient growth. I don't think krono has that. But they do have scalability and a growing market.

At current valuations, i think its mostly fully valued. Does not mean the price cannot go far beyond fair value though =).

Also i may have missed out on something fundamentals wise. feel free to add me on fb and tell me.

From a trading perspective, you need to do a decision tree expected value.

Probability of good QOQ quarter and potential % gain
Probability of good YOY quarter but not QOQ and potential % gain
Probability of good YOY quarter but not QOQ and potential % loss
Probability of bad QOQ quarter and potential % loss
Probability of bad YOY quarter and potential % loss

Good luck.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-16 00:23 | Report Abuse

Funny story about AEONCR.

Revenue, net profit and dividend have been growing EVERY YEAR at roughly 15-25% per year. But the share price moved up with very high volatility (even after averaging out the splits), with "supports" etc being broken all the time, or one/ two year low prices being hit. As if its JAKS or something.

Makes you think about the irrationality of the market.


TakeProfits Thanks very much Jon...
But disappointed that it can't perform like aeon cr in terms of share price.
But your target if can.be achieved in next few years would be good. Thanks and good night.
15/03/2018 23:04

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-03-16 00:28 | Report Abuse

Maybe the problem for rcecap is the lack of growing?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-16 01:01 | Report Abuse

Nobody ever said that about public bank despite only growing 5% per year for 20 years.

If RCECAP boss says tmr he's aiming for 20% growth PA, i will sell instantly.

Banking is the best business. Sure can make money. When they don't make money, its because they get greedy and purposely become stupid.

I wrote something on this.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/PilosopoCapital/142803.jsp

Let me know if i missed out on anything.

Whey Whey Maybe the problem for rcecap is the lack of growing?
16/03/2018 00:28

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-16 09:23 | Report Abuse

I agree with you Jon, once Rcecap throw caution to the wind, and take on less credible customers, rcecap will be in trouble..!! It would end up.like Mas etc. Well let's,hope it's share price can Go further.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-16 13:31 | Report Abuse

Thank Jon. Your insights are real great. You don't talk irrationally like most people. I am not good finance person, so have to depend on inputs from realistic experienced people, like yourself. . Yes, really agree about the irrationality of the market. Let's hope rce can go higher. Perhaps KYY can play up this stock with his gang to heights for us to cash out. Haha.
Truly appreciate your realistic inputs. Thanks again Jon.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-18 19:18 | Report Abuse

Jon, if people know how good this stock is, irrationality can make it 10mr. Haha. It's possible though, but someone got to sell this stock hard. Got ideas??

Posted by Jun Yu > 2018-03-20 16:20 | Report Abuse

Can take a look on takaful also =D

Posted by Jun Yu > 2018-03-20 16:21 | Report Abuse

Good company share price drop like hell =DD

Posted by Eric6790 > 2018-03-21 17:41 | Report Abuse

now days very hard even gd share also drop again

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-21 22:54 | Report Abuse

Ooh, drop 2c arh?? Who selling. Worry lar, if drop 2c every now and then, will be worrying man!? But to go up sooo susah. What's happening to the whole market!? Scary lar and election so close. Market keep dropping ...Ajib, mari tolong lor.. Ajib, lekas.mari mari tolong

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-03-22 10:37 | Report Abuse

Good company share price is a opportunity for u to grap it cheap :)

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-22 12:48 | Report Abuse

I still remember the days when Airsia drop from RM3 to RM2.1 Every day 1-2 sen non stop. Look at where it is now.

The price can go everywhere and anywhere. The only thing we can try and understand and estimate is the fundamental intrinsic value.

At the end of the day, what is investing but the long term arbitrage between the price of and the intrinsic value of the company.

We should stop caring so much if price drop 1-2 sen every day or go up 1-2 sen.

The only question now is this. Is it worth around 2.46? Which is my estimate.

If it is, no need worry, just buy as it falls. But if it isn't, and is actually lower.

We have a problem.

Posted by DroidnPlay > 2018-03-22 16:20 | Report Abuse

waooo Jon, so high faith on it ar 2.46 seems like very far target, tis quiet counter not many ppl interested in it.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-23 12:16 | Report Abuse

Yar, this stock is good stock. Investors perceptions. Needs more publicity on this stock. Well.managed with good profits. Perhaps Azman wants to collect more and then he will.talk to public and funds houses. When shrewd investors are buying slowly they will take their blede time. But when they move it up, you wished you would have waited longer and bought more. Patient game with good stocks. Haha..

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-23 12:16 | Report Abuse

Thanks Jon... Very much....

Posted by DroidnPlay > 2018-03-23 15:10 | Report Abuse

Hope so, money lending business has good prospect, we shouldn't be worry too much. Now market sentiment not good, just hv to be patient n don follow the flow of panic sell, that is what I told myself. Invest is not just for 3 6 mths, business need time to grow.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-23 22:02 | Report Abuse

You are correct DroidnPlay...Guess we have to collect and be patient..
Thanks Jon

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-03-23 22:49 | Report Abuse

If sentiment is very good on this stock, it can go up quite high. As Jon has said if investors perceptions are positive and crazy, the price can go very far. It should be over mr2, but dad it is this low. Look at aeon credit !# and and HLCap!!??

Posted by tslee > 2018-03-26 11:46 | Report Abuse

Stay strong Jon, the business is still going as usual.

Posted by Outliar > 2018-03-26 13:01 | Report Abuse

Why did Jon delete his comment?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-26 13:04 | Report Abuse

Don't want write so much. Whole page also my face. Not sien meh.

Posted by trulyinvest > 2018-03-26 13:51 | Report Abuse

luckily sold all 1.50

Posted by Jun Yu > 2018-03-27 03:31 | Report Abuse

bought more today

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-03-27 09:58 | Report Abuse

Lucky. I bolui liao. Haha


Jun Yu bought more today
27/03/2018 03:31