Posted by mneo > 2018-04-29 21:17 | Report Abuse

DroidnPlay ...just be patient now.... Further downside is low. It is alright to wait for a few months...and gain more than 40% return.... better than fix deposit.... Just invest with spare cash....

Posted by DroidnPlay > 2018-05-14 09:30 | Report Abuse

Good sign, when all others dipping, this ctr go the other way...And few days of share buy back, confidence slowly regained.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-14 09:40 | Report Abuse

I wasnt expecting this sudden gain.

Posted by Outliar > 2018-05-14 11:07 | Report Abuse

I hope you added to your position

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-14 11:37 | Report Abuse

I did, the day before elections. But not by much.

Posted by hipster > 2018-05-14 11:49 | Report Abuse

pangkatan link counter?-)

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-14 12:07 | Report Abuse

No. But civil servants under Pakatan did get higher pay. The more people earn, the more they borrow.

Posted by TakeProfits > 2018-05-16 17:42 | Report Abuse

Hmmm. No momentum to go further up. Tortoise pace. Haha..

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-05-16 21:34 | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo,
17,000 civil servants will lose their jobs as PH Govt want to cut cost.
Better sell rcecap early. The first loss is the best loss. There are many cheap 2nd and 3rd liners oversold which will go up in rotational buying.
You may consider getting into TA before good news out later this month.

You are the very few value investor in i3 forum. So Calvin hope you do very well.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-16 22:17 | Report Abuse

Dear Calvin,

Thanks.

17,000 is 3.4% of civil servants if we use najib figure of 500k civil servants, or 1.1% if we use official figures of 1.5 million civil servants (include teachers etc). And this is to be done over a period of time.

RCECAP has only 1.5% market share in personal loan space.

Assuming their customer have equal representation across the entire civil service, RCE has a worst case (3.4%*1.5%) 0.051% chance and best case (1.1%*1.5%) 0.0165% chance of being affected.

That is worst case, 9 bad customer, best case, 3 bad customer.

This is of course, unless they focus on getting government staff that are politically connected. Which i dont think so.

As RCECAP cannot borrow directly to people, but instead borrow to cooperatives, KOBENA, KSB and KOWAJA. I dont see anything when i researched those cooperatives that indicate they specialize in these politically connected civil service.

In any event, the price is so cheap now, my margin of safety more than covers most bad news. This one is not that major i think.

Of course, if anyone else thinks differently, or feel i have the wrong data, let me know. My avg cost is 1.49. If i'm wrong, id rather cut loss now.

I have just put in all my spare cash into the markets now, rcecap is 22.4% of portfolio.

I am in TA, i have a 2% position. Good luck, now bursa everything also cheap.

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-05-16 23:48 | Report Abuse

What our PM mean today is to terminate the contracts of political appointees contract staff only. Please don't try to created fear here. Thanks!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PUTRAJAYA: The government will terminate the contracts of some 17,000 political appointees who served under the previous administration, Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad said today.

Dr Mahathir said this excluded contract staff who worked as drivers and in other areas, adding that the government would first review their status.

"We will find other places for them to work based on their qualifications.

"We need to sort this out," the prime minister said, adding that the decision to discontinue the contracts of these political appointees in the civil sector would help reduce government expenditure and wastage.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
calvintaneng Jon Choivo,
17,000 civil servants will lose their jobs as PH Govt want to cut cost.
Better sell rcecap early. The first loss is the best loss. There are many cheap 2nd and 3rd liners oversold which will go up in rotational buying.
You may consider getting into TA before good news out later this month.

You are the very few value investor in i3 forum. So Calvin hope you do very well.
16/05/2018 21:34
16/05/2018 23:47

Posted by Tan Kim Tiam > 2018-05-17 10:35 | Report Abuse

3% of 17,000 (civil servants will lose their jobs) should be 510 customers.

Posted by ohbeeyee > 2018-05-17 11:00 | Report Abuse

RCECAP is now directionless, a new govt. that place priority on thrift n prudence, does not hold bright prospects for personal loans, the main shareholder is calling it a day, as we know, n there were rumours way back, that he is a proxy for someone, time to switch now..

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-17 11:36 | Report Abuse

"In terms of the civil servant financing market, RCE Capital — which provides financing mainly to government employees — has about 2% to 3% market share, based on its loan book value of between RM1.5 billion and RM1.6 billion. "

Using 3% we get potential 510 customers.

RM1,496,035,000 loan book, average loan size RM15,000 (kenanga report), that is 99,735 customers.

Worst case 510 (17,000*3%) customers at 15k each, RM7.5mil. Do note some will be transferred, some will not be fired, and this will be over a specific time period. And most should still pay the loan back even if they are fired or find a new job, since when if you no job no need pay loan?

In addition, im not sure if this will directly affect the cooperatives which are loaned money by rcecap.

Current impairment provision is RM65.68mil for specific, RM51.70mil for general.

Its interesting.

The thriftiness of the government, does not mean the thriftiness of the civil servants. I doubt civil servant salary will get cut.

Posted by Sharewitch > 2018-05-17 18:32 | Report Abuse

Wonder what's the reason for add on for treasury shares when they flood the market with esos shares. Should pay dividends instead

Posted by DroidnPlay > 2018-05-18 09:23 | Report Abuse

Ya, don listen to some1 who said it was good time to accumulate Khoo's counter somewhile ago.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-18 12:14 | Report Abuse

When i spoke to the investor relations yesterday on this matter. They indicated that contract workers consist of less than 1% of the loan book.

In addition, it should also be noted that the population of contract workers in malaysia is a lot more than 17,000. Which means, its likely to affect only a small percentage of that less than 1% of loan book.

In addition, even if you get fired,some are likely to still pay up. So there's another mitigating factor.

Why is the amount loaned to contract workers so low? My guess, lack of stability. Contract workers have contracts of usually 3 years or so, and renew at the end of contract. Ideally, you'd like to loan money to people who have permanent jobs.

And as tun m says, some will be transferred, and the low income ones will keep their jobs. In addition, it will take time. Which indicates to me, that the effect will be staggered.

However, i don't think the facts matter in the face of negative emotion or sentiment. I look forward for a chance to top up at RM1.1 or less.

Posted by ohbeeyee > 2018-05-18 16:43 | Report Abuse

@Sharewitch funny isnt it ? maybe to give time for smart insider to cabut ? haha

Sharewitch Wonder what's the reason for add on for treasury shares when they flood the market with esos shares. Should pay dividends instead

Posted by ohbeeyee > 2018-05-18 16:52 | Report Abuse

@Jon Choivo you have a very unique perspective on investing.
as i understand it, you are a firm value investor that invest for at least 5 yrs horizon, prefer is forever with the stk you choose n believe it has will show its value going forward.
Based on this conviction, you will wait to top up further, a stock you foresee will drop further in the immediate horizon, rather than reduce your weightage now n minimise a temp. hit in the portfolio.
v. interesting...

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-18 17:48 | Report Abuse

Wow, that's a big drop. Need to find money buy more.

I have to say, sometimes i wonder if i'm stupid. For example, before this, i said very loudly that i think the stock will drop more as quarter comes up due to MFRS 9, which should result in some impairment.

But instead, i bought some more yesterday at RM1.35 ahahaha.

However, i do know that as human beings, we tend to remember our correct predictions better than our wrong predictions, making us too confident in our own ability.

What i know for a fact is this, its pretty close to futile to predict short term price movements, unless you have a super algo bot that is constantly refined. People get lucky over the short term, but usually not over the long term. I generally got burned too much in terms of opportunity cost or stupidity. And if one looks and spends too much time infront of a computer screen trying to predict short term movements, you can't help but start to have very short term perspective. You start seeing the trees but missing the forest.

What i know i'm reasonably good at, and can actually constantly improve on, is my ability to estimate the intrinsic value of companies. And investing is the last real liberal art. Everything you learn about life, applies to determining the value of a business. So all i need to do, is live life with eyes wide open, and be curious. Very much more fun compared to staring at a computer screen.

I wouldn't mind holding forever, but if a business becomes too expensive i will need to sell. I may keep some, if it.
===========================================================================
ohbeeyee @Jon Choivo you have a very unique perspective on investing.
as i understand it, you are a firm value investor that invest for at least 5 yrs horizon, prefer is forever with the stk you choose n believe it has will show its value going forward.
Based on this conviction, you will wait to top up further, a stock you foresee will drop further in the immediate horizon, rather than reduce your weightage now n minimise a temp. hit in the portfolio.
v. interesting...
18/05/2018 22:47s that fantastic of a business.

Posted by Arnold76 > 2018-05-18 19:36 | Report Abuse

This stock I just keep on top up.

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-05-18 20:59 | Report Abuse

unless 17,000 also in the books of RCE cap, hence the panic sell again,that 17k times 15k that's 255 million...LOL

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-05-18 21:07 | Report Abuse

besides HY this could be the cheapest PE counter in bursa.....

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-18 21:56 | Report Abuse

Read above, you assumption is likely to be grossly false.

But i wouldnt mind if people have this perception! If the whole world thinks all 17,000 is in RCECAP book, instantly drop to 0.3! I can sailang properly then!


===========================================================================
Lukesharewalker unless 17,000 also in the books of RCE cap, hence the panic sell again,that 17k times 15k that's 255 million...LOL
18/05/2018 20:59

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-05-18 22:36 | Report Abuse

Just kidding but somebody urgently selling off today

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-18 23:13 | Report Abuse

Whole market dropping. i wouldn't read too deeply into it, sentiment is not helping either.

Posted by 5354 > 2018-05-18 23:21 | Report Abuse

PH rule worse than BN? Why Malaysian want change of govn?

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-05-19 14:13 | Report Abuse

It's temporary. Fear sentiments. Fundamentals will rule the day soon

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-19 15:14 | Report Abuse

I hope its awhile before fundamental rule the day. Can keep buying then! Haha

Posted by cheoky > 2018-05-21 12:02 | Report Abuse

All in. No gst. More consumption

Posted by Sharewitch > 2018-05-23 12:16 | Report Abuse

Potential Eps 26. Final dividends 10 to 13 cents?

Posted by Eric6790 > 2018-05-24 20:07 | Report Abuse

5354must tks our Najib cuz 1MDB problems related la,

Posted by cheoky > 2018-05-28 20:55 | Report Abuse

RM 3

Posted by Woolei > 2018-05-28 23:10 | Report Abuse

earning improve again, wow

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-28 23:27 | Report Abuse

Government civil service getting cut, mfrs9 6.2mil impairment next quarter. :)

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-05-28 23:36 | Report Abuse

PE 5 but if compare to other consumer credit firm like Aeon, its PE 10......looks too cheap to be believable

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-05-28 23:46 | Report Abuse

It won't affected the next quarter profits am i right?

Posted by Jarklp > 2018-05-28 23:51 | Report Abuse

MFRS9 impact is only 6.2m for a loan portfolio more than 1b..hahaa .. good quarter! Announced 4 cents final dividend, this brings the full year dividend to 7 cenrs ..wow

Posted by cheoky > 2018-05-29 01:18 | Report Abuse

Jon don't fearmongering to collect more... Hahaha. U r evil. Tun is biz friendly. Get zero is the testament of Tun

Posted by cheoky > 2018-05-29 01:18 | Report Abuse

Gst

Posted by ribort_kok > 2018-05-29 01:34 | Report Abuse

My frend portfolio..from 3x cent now rm1.33...

Posted by yuanlong57 > 2018-05-29 05:44 | Report Abuse

Final Dividend

The Board of Directors of RCE is pleased to propose a final single-tier dividend of 4.0 sen per ordinary share in respect of the financial year ended 31 March 2018, subject to the approval of the shareholders at the forthcoming Sixty-Fourth Annual General Meeting of RCE.

The entitlement date and date of payment in respect of the aforesaid final dividend will be determined and announced in due course.


Dividend Guidance

The Board of Directors of RCE also wishes to announce that the Company has adopted a dividend payout ratio of within a range of 20% to 40% of its consolidated profit after tax for financial year ending 31 March 2019 onwards as a Dividend Guidance, provided that such distribution will not be detrimental to the Company’s cash flow requirements.

In considering the dividend payments, the Company will take into account various factors including:-

(1) the Group’s financial performance;

(2) the level of the Group’s available cash and cash equivalents;

(3) the projected level of working capital, capital expenditure and any other investment plans; and

(4) satisfactory cash flow solvency test.

The Board will re-evaluate and review the Dividend Guidance on an on-going basis, taking into consideration of the Group’s financial position, regulatory environment and business prospects.

This announcement is dated 28 May 2018.

Posted by gladiator > 2018-05-29 09:23 | Report Abuse

From now on dividend 6 ~ 8 sen per year

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-29 12:34 | Report Abuse

My FV dropped, due to the lower leverage, and margin compression, but pretty ok with the result.

Posted by Whey Whey > 2018-05-29 18:58 | Report Abuse

Until now there is no news talking about rcecap new quarterly report. Like purposely want to keep it out of public eyes. I wonder why?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-30 09:58 | Report Abuse

Extremely happy day, only up 4 sen. Just increased my position by 20%.It is now 27.8% of the fund.

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-05-30 10:06 | Report Abuse

Posted by Jon Choivo > May 30, 2018 09:56 AM | Report Abuse

Extremely happy day, only up 2 sen. Just increased my position by 20%.It is now 27.8% of the fund.

Aiyoo Jon

This is a mistake

This last hurrah of gain was before 17,000 Govt servants laid off.

You cannot invest based on last quarter results.

This is what sifu Warren said about driving a car by looking at the rear view mirror.

The scene in front of rcecap now will be different

From the height above the EAGLE sees a shrinking pool. And the pool will get smaller and smaller

Govt is laying off 17,000 political appointees.

Govt is reducing salary. Salary is the collateral for rcecap loans. Reduction of salary means smaller loans which equal to lesser profit

Govt as a whole will shrink

So Rcecap will not see improving results for years ahead under PH rule

Last time I warned St Koay about KSL. On past good sales KSL price surged over Rm4.00

But that was then. KSL business turned and price crashed below Rm1.00 later

The longer term trend for Rcecap is below Rm1.00.

So better consider what i say carefully

And I want you to know that I am your friend. All i write is for your good. Only time will prove my words.

Posted by Lukesharewalker > 2018-05-30 10:10 | Report Abuse

TA got move ah....

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-30 10:14 | Report Abuse

Thanks Calvin.

I think you're mistaken. You know my perspective on the 17,000 govt employees and the quantified impact.

You know, PH has been in charge of Penang and Selangor for so long, but the government servants there is still so many.

Govt will not reduce salary or cut (beyond political appointees). Instead what they will do is create more work for them!

No government in the world have survived the next election after cutting the civil service.

i think PH would rather let tolls continue or remove subsidy than cut civil service.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-05-30 16:19 | Report Abuse

Lol, i topped up at 1.37, paid 5-7 sen extra per share. Oh well, better to have bought than not at all.