Flb is good all this while... previous few bad quarters r perhaps due to the logs issue... as long as logs supply sufficient, i think 20m per year nvr be an issue for them...
cigar butt stock. still worth collecting at Rm1.4x - Rm1.5x. most of the quarters are making good profit. holding long term for dividends also ho sieh.
A simple outlook why FLBHD will be a powerhorse in the coming days.
1. Malaysia government stringent crackdown on illegal logging. Hence lesser illegal supply on market, which in turn will be beneficial to legalize logger like FLBHD.
2. Stronger USD against MYR. Stronger forex gain on sale of log which is dealt in USD
3. Demand of wood to increase from Japan and Hong Kong post catastrophe.
4. Economically speaking, a lesser supply (due to crack down on illegal logging) and higher demand (due to reconstruction) will adjust to a higher raw timber price.
Hence with above pointer, potential FLBHD will be spinning to RM 2 again on better financial result
(Last quarter is 9 cent)
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Just trying to gauge a rough estimate of value (syiok sendiri calculation)
Latest net cash position is 88.58mil 5 year average FCF is 15.10mil
Assuming u want to acquire FLBHD now, what is the prospective price case 1: multiple of 10x its 5 yr average FCF, that will amount to 151.04mil Total value including net cash = 239.62mil (2.28 per share)
case 2: multiply of 10x its latest reported FCF (10.86mil), that will amount to 108.62mil Total value including net cash = 197.2mil (1.88 per share)
u will get a range of 1.88 to 2.28 with zero assumption implied for its future FCF growth
George, flb price is below estimate la... i think 6 sen early this year is for 2017 one... a company which consistently paying out at least 6 sen dividend shouldnt drop till below RM1.. oversold la... a higher dividend means higher profit if based on recent years’ pay out ratio... i believe they r doing well... forex also favourable to flb..... and it is growing still in Q4.... means good result still continue...
mkmk: ya, u are right. 6 cents in Q1 is for 2017. Still with 10 cents in FY18, a dividend yield of around 6.7%. If there is a dividend for Q4, the dividend yield will increase further. Let's see what is Focus Lumber Q3 result.
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mkmk
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Posted by mkmk > 2018-11-07 19:34 | Report Abuse
Great!!!