Looking back at my previous comments. When FLBHD drops to c.RM1, that was the best chance to buy.
Stock: [FLBHD]: FOCUS LUMBER BHD May 22, 2018 08:41 PM | Report Abuse
Value trap?
Depending on how u see it. I see it as Share price of RM1. Net cash per share is 96 sen. Basically you pay nothing for the business.
Stock: [FLBHD]: FOCUS LUMBER BHD Jun 10, 2018 01:31 PM | Report Abuse
FLBHD net cash position amounts to 96 sen per share
stripping out the net cash, PE ratio (ex cash) is 1.94 times. Which means you will earn back your initial investment within 2 years at current price.
that's achievable even in the worst case scenario assuming FLBHD only manage to earn 6 sen EPS for the next 2 years.
Price = 1.08 Net cash =0.96 Ex cash = 1.08 - 0.96 = 0.12sen
Anything above 6 sen EPS is a gain to investors.
Actually, buying at current price is already a gain to investors because FLBHD pays 6 sen dividend annually. Any earnings recorded are a bonus.
Stock: [FLBHD]: FOCUS LUMBER BHD Nov 12, 2018 03:49 PM | Report Abuse
Just trying to gauge a rough estimate of value (syiok sendiri calculation)
Latest net cash position is 88.58mil 5 year average FCF is 15.10mil
Assuming u want to acquire FLBHD now, what is the prospective price case 1: multiple of 10x its 5 yr average FCF, that will amount to 151.04mil Total value including net cash = 239.62mil (2.28 per share)
case 2: multiply of 10x its latest reported FCF (10.86mil), that will amount to 108.62mil Total value including net cash = 197.2mil (1.88 per share)
u will get a range of 1.88 to 2.28 with zero assumption implied for its future FCF growth
read their past reports. cash is so thick. giving 8 cents dividend is chicken to them. foresee stable/more dividends on upcoming years. Also worth hold for mid-long term..
Should hold longer for reasons: - FLB naps is growing, mainly due to cash piling up from profits every quarter. FLB might continue to give nice dividends. As what Fabien said, it should worth 1.88 to 2.28.
- Tech & construction stocks are volatile now. If any crisis caused by global economy, the safest place to keep your money is cash rich, high-dividends stock.
I did not ask you to believe me I am very thankful to my sifu who had helped to gain a free trip to Hanoi for my family during the coming year end holiday I do not feel I am stuck in pwi because I manage my cash well, still making good paper profit in other counters following my sifu advice. My sifu is reading my message, he knows what I am talking
To be fair to my sifu, pwi is not my sifu recommendation, flbhd is my sifu recommendation. I locked in profit because it is just my side dish, my sifu did not ask me to sell
Sifut la u... sifu sifu... ask ur sifut pwi can buy not.. follow ur sifut mah... everytime call sifu sifu, sifu didnt tell u sell y u sell.. sifu didnt tell u buy y u buy? if follow sendiri sifut then dont put sifu sifu in front la... sifut lao...
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
apolloang
18,163 posts
Posted by apolloang > 2018-11-13 15:13 | Report Abuse
no buy baru got,if now go buy 50,000 it chage to 1.50 instead of 1.80....hehe