Trump to the rescue for oil producers Tweet from the President:
We will never let the great U.S. Oil & Gas Industry down. I have instructed the Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Treasury to formulate a plan which will make funds available so that these very important companies and jobs will be secured long into the future! 22/04/2020 2:55 PM
PETALING JAYA: As the termination risk on global jack-up rigs due to Covid-19-related issues will weigh negatively on sentiment, local contracts for foreign rigs have a higher risk of termination.
As such, UOB KayHian assumes that the termination risk on Velesto Energy Bhd’s rigs will be low as they are locally owned.
The research house assumes a lower utilisation rate for Velesto’s rigs for 2020 to 2022, especially this year, as it accounts for operational setbacks such as the risk of suspension or standby modes due to lockdowns and Covid-19-related logistical issues.
“We expect utilisation to recover in 2021, but rate recovery to only be from the second-half of 2021.
“This is assuming that Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) exercises the one-year extensions from mid-2020 but negotiates at low rates of less than US$60,000.
“Currently, four of Velesto’s rigs are up for extension from mid-2020.
“We assume Velesto will respond with some operating expenditure savings, and our 2020 to 2021 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) forecasts are cut by 25% to RM300mil levels, ” said UOB KayHian, adding that the EBITDA forecast for 2020 to 2021 is still healthy and consistent with 2019.
In addition, Velesto’s future principal repayment is small and net gearing is set to decline.
Overall, UOB KayHian does not see material risk on Velesto’s balance sheet.
The research house said Petronas has yet to issue guidance on capital expenditure (capex) cuts or contract renegotiations.
“Petronas recently said it will strive to retain its domestic capex of an expected RM26bil to RM28bil for 2020.
“Although Westwood Global highlighted force majeure scenarios, we note that this is a case-by-case basis and not necessarily enforced in Malaysia.
“We believe the affected rig activities may be placed under standby or suspension mode, for at least a 14-day quarantine period, and in this case at reduced rates.
“According to Westwood, active jack-up rigs in Malaysia fell from a peak of 15 in January 2020 to about 10 in April 2020, ” said UOB KayHian.
Westwood Global highlighted that oil majors may cut planned 2020 capex by more than 20% and are increasingly using force majeure declarations on confirmed Covid-19 cases, as well as rig downtime due to logistical issues.
International oil prices rebound following Trump warning
April 22, 2020 8:09 pm by Myles McCormick and Joe Rennison in London, Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong and Matthew Rocco in New York
Brent bounces back from two-decade low after US president takes aim at Iranian vessels
Oil prices rebounded on Wednesday after Donald Trump stoked Middle East tensions, saying that he had ordered US warships to “shoot down and destroy” Iranian vessels if they posed a threat. The US president’s intervention sent Brent crude back above $20 a barrel after the international benchmark had tumbled to its lowest level since 1999 on concerns over the collapse in global oil demand. The declaration from Mr Trump also helped buoy the high-yield bond market, which is heavily exposed to the fate of energy companies. BlackRock’s iShare high-yield bond exchange traded fund, known by its ticker HYG, rose 1 per cent, having dipped 1.8 per cent on Tuesday.
“I have instructed the United States Navy to shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea,” Mr Trump wrote in a tweet. The prospect of renewed tensions in the Middle East gave crude a lift during a week where prices have struggled to contend with an evaporation in demand triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.
Brent rose as high as $22.45 a barrel and settled at $20.37, up more than 5 per cent on the day. The energy sector helped lead a rally on Wall Street that sent the benchmark S&P 500 up 2.3 per cent following two days of falls. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.8 per cent. West Texas Intermediate, the US marker, rose 19 per cent to $13.78 a barrel. It almost halved during the previous session and earlier in the week fell into negative territory for the first time as producers were forced to pay buyers to take oil off their hands ahead of the expiry of futures contracts.
Brent crude remains down about 27 per cent so far this week. Oil production levels have remained robust even as the virus destroys demand, creating a supply glut. An unprecedented cut of almost 10 per cent of global supply by Opec and its allies will take effect next month, but traders worry it is not enough to offset the collapse in consumption. The head of the International Energy Agency on Tuesday called for the output reductions to be expedited and deepened. Opec members met by phone overnight, but there was no sign they would change their plans.
Even if Petronas has a national duty to continue producing oil, I doubt Petronas has the capacity to give contracts for all the 7 rigs owned by Velesto. Even if Petronas wants to do so, it will be at a very low day rate that Velesto needs to match for Petronas to breakeven based on current oil price.
I think we can see so far that oil price spike or fall doesn't affect the price drastically. I would advice to have a proper trading plan and keeping to it, rather than flip flopping between run and buy everyday because of oil price.
My take is that this counter will rise definitely. Buy when there is a long candlestick. But will need patience as it will fluctuate in the 10-20c range for a while. Panic buying and selling because of some "expert" opinions here will just incur losses.
Me too, I also think this share will rise one day. Please have patience to wait or please pass down the shares to your next of kin for them to continue the wait for you. Those who bought at 30 sen thinking it was low when it corrected from 40 sen, if you think this share will go up, you can put in more money to average down and continue the wait.
KUALA LUMPUR: Petroliam Nasional Bhd (Petronas) is said to have reduced the number of its fully active rigs from 18 to four since oil price began dropping late last year.
The national oil company had shut down or warm-stacked 14 projects until oil price recovers to break even levels, an industry publication reported, quoting sources.
Warm-stacking involves temporarily shutting down operations but maintaining minimal activity as a cost-saving measure.
"Petronas is unable to maintain its operation at the current price because its rigs are mainly in deepwater, which are more expensive to run," the report said, putting the break even level at around US$70 a barrel.
Petronas did not respond to the New Straits Times' queries at press time.
Petronas' purported cost-cutting measure reflects the sentiments of the global oil and gas industry.
In the past few months, oil prices had plummeted from nearly US$100 a barrel to under US$20 a barrel now.
Consequently, oil majors have made substantial budget cuts on the back of the Covid-19 pandemic and the Saudi-Russia price war that has sent the oil prices, particularly the US' crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI), down to historic lows.
Norwegian energy intelligence company Rystad Energy recently said new deepwater projects currently under evaluation by operators in Southeast Asia were likely to face delays.
Rystad said the Limbayong project in Malaysia, Abadi in Indonesia, Shew Yee Htun in block A6 in Myanmar and the Kelidang Cluster in Brunei, were all considered to be at risk in the current oil price environment.
Petronas previously stated that it would strive to maintain its domestic capital expenditure (capex) programme of RM26 billion-RM28 billion this year, while cutting the overseas capex.
Principal Asset Management Bhd, which served 700,000 investors with RM58.2 billion of assets under management as of last year, said there were increasing risks of some Petronas projects being delayed due to prolonged lockdowns and further disruptions in the global supply chain.
The impact of the project delays would likely be cascaded down and adversely affected upstream service providers, Principal chief investment officer Patrick Chang said in a statement today.
"At this juncture, we remain cautious on the oil and gas sector due to the impact of Covid-19 and the expected slowdown in economic activities," he added.
Principal said the spot or cash market prices for benchmark Brent and WTI crudes had recovered to US$20.50 a barrel and US$13.85 a barrel respectively, after dropping to US$16 a barrel and -US$40 a barrel early this week.
The current spot prices, however, were still higher than the levels recorded during the 1998 Asian financial crisis, it added.
few questions here, why covid getting serious and lock down getting longer for whole world the share price will up and shares will bullish?? Getting more companies going to bankruptcy why market seems peaceful and keep rebounding? Share and economic no relationship? Think about it then you know why this counter can't move anymore even oil price crazy bullish this few days...
joshua because US unlimited QE to save equity market and bursa suspended IDSS and MCO ppl got nothing to do. u can see retail buy getting higher and surpass institution buying.
Bad news from Petronas ... Petronas is said to have reduced the number of its fully active rigs from 18 to 4 since oil price began dropping late last year ... Petronas had shut down or warm-stacked 14 projects until oil price recovers to break even levels, an industry publication reported, quoting sources ...
Next week is quite eventful ... Thursday is Brent oil June2020 contract expiry date, no sure whether any oil price collapse or not ... Friday suppose to be able to do short selling for IDSS, no sure whether Bursa would announce extension or not ... Could be a roller coaster week ...
#1lancefire I think we can see so far that oil price spike or fall doesn't affect the price drastically. I would advice to have a proper trading plan and keeping to it, rather than flip flopping between run and buy everyday because of oil price.
My take is that this counter will rise definitely. Buy when there is a long candlestick. But will need patience as it will fluctuate in the 10-20c range for a while. Panic buying and selling because of some "expert" opinions here will just incur losses. 24/04/2020 11:15 AM
#2 Allantanks same opinion held here. 24/04/2020 11:58 AM
#3 offshore Me too, I also think this share will rise one day. Please have patience to wait or please pass down the shares to your next of kin for them to continue the wait for you. Those who bought at 30 sen thinking it was low when it corrected from 40 sen, if you think this share will go up, you can put in more money to average down and continue the wait. 24/04/2020 1:21 PM
+ 1...Already on board and collected enough. The previous cycle I collected a lot at 18-20 cents. Make good money when it was trading above 35-40 sen. I used to chase this stock when it was trading above 35 after I sold..Right now it's really Grand Sales. So I will just wait when it starts to rebound...the same like what I did in previous cycle.
Velesto is an investment grade stock. She know how to take care of herself. Revisit when she's starts moving. The chart is looking good on weekly 200 Moving Average.
See you guys when she start breaking the 30 sen wall...
if one day wti and brent both are selling below 10 usd, really no eye see.. must cut loss all!! thinking all oil or related companies cannot survive for few months !!
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Mabel
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Posted by Mabel > 2020-04-22 14:58 | Report Abuse
Trump to the rescue for oil producers
Tweet from the President:
We will never let the great U.S. Oil & Gas Industry down. I have instructed the Secretary of Energy and Secretary of the Treasury to formulate a plan which will make funds available so that these very important companies and jobs will be secured long into the future!
22/04/2020 2:55 PM