This is my last advice !! calling all Velesto believers , sit tight , taruh more and enjoy the ride ... starting next week !! VRoom Vroom Vroom >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
pea3034, wait for the price to reach 26.5 then you come and panic buy loh !! That's why many newbies lose money in sharemarket ! Now the price is the slowest, very safe to enter !!
"BIMB Securities Research has upgraded Velesto Energy to a buy (from a hold), with a higher target price of 26.5 sen (from 14 sen previously) on steady demand for jack-up rigs in the next three years. "
"MIDF Research also highlights that based on the PAO, 2021 upstream activity levels are expected to mirror that of 2020 as Petronas remains cautious on the O&G sector recovery.
The research unit says a key opportunity area is in the decommissioning and well-abandonment segment.
This is given as currently Malaysia has over 350 platforms where 56% are operating beyond design life and 18% have been operating for over 40 years, there are more than 3,000 wells where 45% are idle wells and over 500 wells are planned to be plugged permanently by 2030, and more than 750 pipelines, where 38% are operating beyond design life and 4% have been operating for over 40 years.
The key beneficiaries to well abandonment activity would be drilling rig operators such as Velesto Energy and Sapura Energy, as well as hydraulic workover units (HWU) operators such as Velesto Energy."
If you missed these reports few days ago, READ and ANALYSE again !!
highlight :- " 2021 could be a watershed year for oil markets, in which falling investments and bankruptcies will create a supply crunch the likes of which we have never seen before. With an ever-growing list of delayed upstream projects and FIDs, the threat is growing. In a report by the International Energy Forum (IEF) and consultancy BCG in December 2020, warnings were given that lower CAPEX levels and low investment appetite will be a real threat to markets. OPEC, IEA, and others, have already made it clear that cumulative hydrocarbon related investments are dwindling. As OPEC has indicated before, investment volumes of around $12.6 trillion are needed to keep the oil supply for the coming decades at the current level. Norwegian oil consultancy Rystad Energy said that even though demand has declined in 2020, 2019 levels could return before 2024/25, necessitating future upstream spending of an average of $380 billion p.a. over the long-term. The need for large scale new investments is clear, as the upstream sector has already been fighting an uphill battle to get access to the necessary investment volumes in recent years. Larger investments are necessary to avoid a future of higher prices and increased market volatility. Inadequate investments will set off another wave of unwanted boom-and-bust pricing. With oil majors indicating that CAPEX reductions will be in place throughout 2021, and some even seeing 2022 as a difficult year, production is undoubtedly being threatened.
Technology alone cannot be the savior. IEF research indicated that every dollar of CAPEX that is cut today will have twice as powerful an effect in terms of reducing activity as the cuts made following the 2014 fall in prices had. As demand for oil and gas is expected to increase after COVID, low CAPEX supply will become a major constraint. At the moment, no real new immense oil and gas resource is available to counter demand growth without trillions of investment dollars being poured in.
A peak oil investment crisis is in the making. The current financials of most IOCs and leading NOCs are not accounting for peak investment requirements. As the IEF report clearly states, industry investment will have to rise over the next three years by at least 25% yearly from 2020 levels to stave off a crisis. Peak oil prices also could be a reality if the market doesn’t react. "
In short, the oil price will go peak after covid-19 because most oil majors cut capex ! Supply drop, demand UP... oil price UP !!!!! (back to 100 ? maybe !!)
No point bro..no matter how loud you shout, bottom line velesto still need to secure more contracts. Their rigs must fully utilize or else doesn't give any significant results..
Based on Westwood Global’s data, the fall in local rig count appears in tandem with the massive downgrade in local jack-up rig demand by Petronas’ Activity Outlook from 16 to 10 for 2021. The new outlook expects seven and 10 local jack-up rigs for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
PETALING JAYA: Velesto Energy Bhd is anticipated to secure several short-term contracts from the second quarter of 2021, which will help offset potential weak results for the jack-up rig service provider.
UOBKayHian said in a report that Velesto is expected to report losses for the fourth quarter of 2020 and first quarter of 2021, due to falling utilisation as its existing contracts are set to expire.
“Potentially, its earnings before interest, depreciation and amortisation (EITDA) generation may fall significantly for these quarters and our estimate on its EBITDA break-even is at 30% utilisation.
“Nevertheless, we rule out default risk as long as its cash and EBITDA are over RM200mil and with interest cover of more than four times respectively. Maturing term loans in 2020 and 2021 are at RM97mil and RM107mil, respectively. The next major principal repayment is only at the end of 2022.”
UOBKayHian said Velesto’s losses are expected to widen over a three-year period by 13%, 10% and 46%, respectively, from 2021 to 2023.
“This mainly accounts for the change in our US dollar to ringgit assumption from RM4.30 to RM4.05. All other assumptions are unchanged.
“Based on recent developments, we believe our 2020 forecasts, which already factor in a weak fourth-quarter 2020, are largely intact. Velesto’s nine-months 2020 core profit was RM5.5mil.”
For 2021, UOBKayHian said it continues to assume lower average rates, especially for new contracts.
“Our 2021 utilisation forecast assumes Velesto will likely secure five to six short-term contracts that will commence by the second quarter of 2021, but overall we expect the year to be weaker compared with 2020, assuming slow contract rollouts.
“While the first quarter of 2021 may be as weak as the fourth quarter of 2020, we still expect fundamentals to recover from the second quarter of 2021 onwards.”
The research house noted that local active jack-up rig count fell year-on-year from 15 to five in January 2021.
“Based on Westwood Global’s data, the fall in local rig count appears in tandem with the massive downgrade in local jack-up rig demand by Petronas’ Activity Outlook from 16 to 10 for 2021. The new outlook expects seven and 10 local jack-up rigs for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
“The new outlook is reminiscent of Petronas’ 2018 plan. Historically, at the start of the year, rig utilisation and contract flows are slow due to monsoon seasons and these will usually pick up after March or April.”
UOBKayHian said key risks include slower-than-expected awards and higher operating expenditure. “The renewed Covid-19 lockdown is already causing setbacks in the local oil and gas (O&G) industry for contract awards and execution, despite O&G being classified as essential services.”
The research house is retaining its “hold” call on the stock, with a lower target price of 14 sen, compared with 15 sen previously.
No doubt that oil price is important but at the end the profit measured by number of rigs utilize. If no contracts then Velesto rigs will be idles for long time and no money generate in even the oil trading at usd 60. Hope for best soon.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Lewis Lee
1,695 posts
Posted by Lewis Lee > 2021-01-09 20:15 | Report Abuse
This is my last advice !! calling all Velesto believers , sit tight , taruh more and enjoy the ride ... starting next week !! VRoom Vroom Vroom >>>>>>>>>>>>>>