Raising 2022E CPO ASP to MYR4,100/t | POSITIVE We raise 2022 CPO ASP forecast to MYR4,100/t from MYR3,200/t after a confluence of factors that have driven present CPO prices to above MYR5,000/t. We maintain our view that high CPO prices may not sustain once supply normalizes, likely in 2H22. Except for KLK, we are keeping EPS forecasts, call and TP for our other stock coverage pending updates on their FFB output and cost expectations during 4QCY21 results release. Stay POSITIVE on the sector. Preferred BUYs are KLK, SOP, and BPLANT. https://mccw6.dra.agconnect.link/P89KW
Shareholders can expect good divdend upon the annoucement of the coming qtr result..high likelihood of price climbing to at least RM 1.30 by the end of 1st half of 2022.
But only Public Bank change TPs & ratings on individual planters in reflecting high CPO price & production cost assumptions. The other two (Hong Leong & Maybank) probably wait for the upcoming QR results in the next few days.
I don't see any constant dividend payout by any of the palm oil counters currently below RM1.00.In that respect Boustead Plantation ( BPlant ) is in a better position to enjoy price appreciation as investors especially foreign institutional investor will root for constant dividend payout as one of the criterion is deciding investment prudence.This will definitely propel the rate of price appreciation of BPlant once it breaches RM1.00 mark.Most likely will happen the next two weeks.
How Russia-Ukraine conflict will hit global market (report in CNA); Any interruption to the flow of grain out of the Black Sea region is likely to have a major impact on prices and further fuel food inflation at a time when affordability is a major concern across the globe following the economic damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Four major exporters - Ukraine, Russia, Kazakhstan and Romania - ship grain from ports in the Black Sea which could face disruptions from any military action or sanctions.
Ukraine is projected to be the world's third largest exporter of corn in the 2021/22 season and fourth largest exporter of wheat, according to International Grains Council data. Russia is the world's top wheat exporter.
Hahaha… on a more serious note… any deterioration in R vs U will impact everyone on a macro scale… but will positively impact on commodities… start with crude oil n gas… whn crude oil is expensive, EU will review the contents n usage of the biodiesel…
“…. Mohd Haris explains that in the second half, palm oil production should recover with the easing of labour shortages on plantations in Malaysia, and at the same time, “you’ll see good soybean crop (production) from Latin America initially and then the United States, and you may see the geopolitical situation improving in Ukraine (the world’s largest producer of sunflower seed and sunflower oil), and then you could get CPO prices back down….”
Unfortunately palm oil price will head toward 10,000 mark soon due to the drop in production + manufacturers in consumer products/biofuel are panic buy too to keep their production cost low.
Tyranny, let’s focus back on bplant Q4 results next week… coz it’s an easier topic than geopolitical and supply chain… any guess on underlying (exclude extraordinary items if any) profit for bplant?
Actually it’s not hard to guess once u got the operating cost per MT based on Q3 x Q4 production and use the % of realised CPO price delta of Q4 vs Q3 for those companies that have announced. Interest cost can be easily calculated based on the same repayment trend for Q3. Agak-agak…
Whereas Sime estates are the feeder base for their downstream refineries. Current Cpo price rally good for upstream planter's but tough for those with big refineries. Their downstream operations will be stretch with margins squeeze.
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gemfinder
6,880 posts
Posted by gemfinder > 2022-02-18 13:12 |
Post removed.Why?