Every year at the beginning of the year, investment banks would recommend some stocks which they think would out-perform the market. Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, TM, Tenaga, Digi, Axiata, Sime, AirAsia etc, the same ones are always on the lists. Nothing wrong with the recommendations as most of them would do well I believe. But the problems of these recommendations are:
1. Almost every investment bank is recommending the same companies, is there any chance that they would earn extra-ordinary return as everyone is chasing the same stocks?
2. Nearly all funds, local or foreign own them because of the liquidity which is good. But if every fund has to own them, won’t the price been chased up long ago to its intrinsic value?
3. Is there any conflict of interest with the investment banks who have funds holding these stocks, or have business dealing with the companies recommending these stocks?
4. Most companies recommended are big capitalized companies. What is the potential of high growth in order to achieve high return in the future?
5. These stocks are well known by everybody in the market, the institutions and retail players. What is the chance that they are selling at bargain price, and hence the chance of high return?
Do you have any hidden gem which is tucked in some where undiscovered, unloved and institutional investors have no mandate or interest to buy them for the time being, and selling at bargain price. The chance to earn 50% return a year, a double bagger, five baggers or even ten baggers. An ugly duckling which would turn to a beautiful swan in the near future? Which one and why?
you can take my sifu title optikus so desperately wanted la! i was never interested to be one anyway! oh wait, same joker right? so desperate for validation, no more digging out old threads ka? hahahahahaha
need to do full dress rehearsal for your inauguration as sifu or not? hospital bahagia seems to do full packages for your kind, so i heard! cheap cheap price per share.... er... package i heard! hahahahahahaha
i see the inauguration already begun yesterday! just before your other self fly to shanghai in private jet at 10pm from subang's everyones-a-VIP lounge!! hahahahahahaha
what drugs are they prescribing in hospital bahagia la? LOL
Posted by newbiestock > Jul 3, 2013 11:25 AM | Report Abuse pathetic poor sifus should be banned from this site for being stupead!!!!! analyse maybank la PE low also what about cimb la. these are not gems ah??? ur hidden gems are like ur nuts will always be hidden. cheats all cheats kcloh kcchongnz ooi tek
Newbie, what did I told you last night. Hold on to your puncak ya, now you start to earn money to cover your previous losses. Dont worry, you will continue to do well
Is MYEG a good company? Is it too expensive at 1.63?
Posted by ipomember > Jul 3, 2013 10:01 AM | Report Abuse Kcchong, i think myeg is a good company. But the P/E is high now. What P/E you willing to pay for this kind of company?
Myeg is definitely a good company in my book. There is good growth in its business.The twelve month trailing (ttm) results shows earnings and profit grew by 9% and 18% respectively. Margin is high at 44%. ROE is great at 24%. The quality of its earnings is good with CFFO 132% of net income; and plenty of free cash flows (28m). But is it a good investment? I mean is it worthwhile to buy at present price?
I agree with you. Myeg is too expensive. Its price at 1.63 is 31 (>25) times its ttm earnings and 7.2 (>2.5) times its book value.
I think the moderator of this forum should ban those who voice personal attacks against others rather than discussing stock related issues. Alternatively we must not respond to these people. They will then gradually be faded out.
Posted by Jaack1 > Jul 3, 2013 11:25 AM | Report Abuse Dear Mr KC Chong, What is your view on FABER? Tks/Rgds
Faber does appear to be having a good business. Good cash flows and healthy balance sheet with negligible debt now after 150m debts were paid off last year. ROE was good averaging 18.4% for the last two years.
At RM1.82 at the close of today’s market, PE ratio and price-to-book are at undemanding 6.1 and 1.3 respectively. Yes, Faber may be a good company to invest in.
Silent Person like read and learn from everybody/anybody views here, and seldom give my word cos i am really a NEWBIESTOCK! Buy or sell, own decision. Win or lost, own fate. Dear little brother newiestock, don't be like that la, be gentle a bit, no personal attack and all those #$$@&^%. As u mentioned,(u think lah) we the stupied fool people, u are the Smart ONE, then u should talk like smart & brillent person...unfortunately u WORDS reflected the other way round???? Again u keep on saying RM3.00 and above stocks, I also want to buy those "B shit" stocks (defintely a lot of people wish so..no me lah..cos no $$$.) u think everybody so RICH like u! Please don't keep on showing u cleverness and muka orang kaya here. Also don't waste u time and energy here with POOR people... go to have a tea with those big guy elsewhere. God bless u. good9
Why everyone thinks buying high priced stocks is rich?
Trick question. If you buy 1000 lots of rm 0.50 stock and 100 lots of rm 5, which one is more expensive? Or you buy 100000 lots of rm 0.05 stock then how?
Too many idiots ikan bilis abound, good for us to have anchovy feast...
kcchong, what do u think of fitters? i check its fundamental is pretty good, profit keep earning but zero dividend. will u consider this type of stock?
kcchong, when u stock pick, will u also categorize the stock as defensive stock type? i mean some stock are 'defensive' type ie consumer or utility stock...
Posted by Steve Jub > Jul 4, 2013 09:20 AM | Report Abuse kcchong, what do u think of fitters? i check its fundamental is pretty good, profit keep earning but zero dividend. will u consider this type of stock?
Fitters past year's performance appeared to be good with net profit improved by 17% to 27.5m. However that is not well with its revenue which actually declined by 8% to 410m. Return of invested capital and return of equity appears ok lah at 14% and 12.3% respectively.
However the Achilles’ heel is its very poor quality of earnings. CFFO is only 28% of net profit and no free cash flow last year.
At 72 sen, it appears to be cheap with PE ratio of 5.8, and price-to-book of less than 1.
So Fitters is not my kind of stock because of its poor cash flow. However, please don't follow me. Fitters could very well be a darling of the market in momentum play.
Each year Fitters receives cash from its fire fighting services etc from debtors. It has to pay out cash to creditors too, besides setting aside money for building up inventories etc. The net cash equals to cash inflows less cash outflows. Fitters net inflow of cash or CFFO is only 7.6m, although it claimed to make 28m profit. So where is the money?
More than 20m is hidden in increase in receivables to 119m now, money Fitters claimed others owe them but not paid yet.
Fitters needs to spend money each year to buy plant and equipment and other capital expenses. Last year 7.6m was spent for this purpose. So how much of the CFFO was left behind? Nothing, absolutely nothing. There is no free cash flow at all. So where to get money to pay dividend.
Interestingly Fitters spent about 14.5m to buy back its own shares. OMG, no money some more buy back share. Where did the money come from?
The money came from conversion of warrants, about 48m. 11m of it was used to pay down its long term debt.
Tipster, my problem with Yee Lee is its low margin business, and not impressive asset turnover. This results in low return of invested capital. It has not much growth too. I would prefer to invest in a company with at least 10% ROIC. Here was my previous comments:
Posted by kcchongnz > May 26, 2013 01:16 PM | Report Abuse X Is Yee Lee a great company? Is it a good investment?
Yee Lee has a durable business. It is trading at very attractive valuation too as shown below. My main problem is its very low margin and ROIC. So for me I will pass.
Good company? Good governance Yes Durable business Yes Growth No ROIC No 7% >WACC Balance sheet Yes
Screens for investing ROIC No P/B Yes 0.7 <2.0 PE ratio Yes 8.8 <20
Kc, Can you comment on CSCENIC?Noticed that it's dividend yield is very high with no debts as well.Does it fulfill your investing criteria?Thanx in advance.
CSCENIC a hidden gem? Maybe, judge yourself from my comments below:
Posted by kcchongnz > Jun 19, 2013 12:58 PM | Report Abuse X Is Classic Scenic a good company? Is it a good investment?
Posted by fookchng > Jun 18, 2013 06:04 PM | Report Abuse Dear KC, have you studied on PESTECH and CLASSIC SCENIC BHD before? I am interested to know your valuation on them. Thanks.
No, I have not studied those stocks before you mentioned here. But since you ask, I will try to look into one of them. And since you ask in this thread which discusses about searching for a good company, i will give my opinion if this is a good company worthy of investing also, before I attempt my valuation here.
Classic Scenic is engaged in the manufacturing of wooden picture frame moldings, and wooden pallets. Operations are carried out in Malaysia, North America, Australia, Europe and other Asian countries.
The business appears to be boring, isn't it? But often a boring traditional business is a good business. It's business has a high net profit margin of about 20% and provides a return of 16% (>12%) of invested capital. The quality of its earnings is good. Free cash flow is abundant at 20% of revenue (>>5%) and 16% (>>5%) of invested capital. That is why it can distribute a high dividend of 9 sen, (DY=8.1% at RM1.11). The only shortcoming is its business is quite stagnant with not much growth at a CAGR of only 4% fro the last 7 years. It is not that bad though as it is still growing in tandem with the broad economy. Last year's growth in revenue of 19% was great. So I can certainly say CScenic is a good company.
At RM1.11, its PE ratio is 10 (<20), EV/Ebit=6.7 (<8) and price-to-book of 1.4 (<2). So it is not expensive and hence may offer investors a good investment.
CScenic's valuation is quite straight forward as its revenue and earnings are quite stable. Assuming CScenic continues to grow in tandem with the economy at 3%, CScenic at RM1.11 is already fully valued as shown below, unless its business can continue to grow at last year's rate for a few more years.
Revenue 62329 Ebit 14753 24% less income tax -3388 23% EBIT after tax 11366 Add average D&A 2738 Less average capex -5983 Normalized Ebit 8121 Cost of capital, R 10% Growth rate 3% Capitalized earnings=Ad Ebit/R 116007 Add cash 21724 EPV 137731 Number of shares 120500 EPV/share 1.14
kcchong, i went to check fitter's cash flow for FYE Dec 2012. i saw that their net cash is about RM32 million, not 'zero'...am i seeing the right thing?
Steve, free cash flow (FCF)in a year is the hard cash left from the net cash flows from the operations after spending on capital expenses (capex). Net cash inflows less cash outflows is termed the cash flows from operations(CFFO). Capital expenses are expenses required to sustain the business, such as replacement of worn out plant and equipment, leasing of land etc. So CFFO-capex=FCF.
So can you see without FCF, a company has no money to pay down loan, do other investment, and pay dividend, unless it borrows more money from bank, or in Fitters case, used the money collected from conversion of warrants. So it is difficult for a company to survive without having any free cash flows for years.
steve, i don't know what figures those you use. They are not CFFO and capex of whichever year. Read my previous explanation of it which was based on the last financial statement ended 31/12/2013.
Free cash flow= cash flows from operations - capital expenses
CFFO from the cash flow statement (7636000). Capex is the purchase of property, plant and equipment (7563000)
Posted by kcchongnz > May 27, 2013 11:43 AM | Report Abuse X
Posted by Tan KW > May 26, 2013 07:05 PM | Report Abuse @kcchongnz how you get the WACC? need to calculate by yourself?
If a company has 200m equity and 100m debts and the cost of equity you use say 12%, and after-tax cost of borrowings at 7%,
WACC=200/300*12%+100/300*7%=10.3%.
I use 12% as my required return for investing in a company with ok but not so good balance sheet and cash flow. If they have healthy balance sheet and excellent cash flow, I may use 10%.
Invested capital you have to compute yourself:
It is IC=fixed assets+receivables+inventories-payables
Posted by mrk2ca > Jul 5, 2013 02:42 PM | Report Abuse KC, what is your opinion on PMetal? Thanks.
Posted by kcchongnz > Jun 17, 2013 03:16 PM | Report Abuse X Posted by chengyee > Jun 16, 2013 07:04 PM | Report Abuse Kcchongnz, have you done study on LBALUM and PMETAL before? Please share if you have. I am interested to know your valuation on them. Thanks.
No, I haven't before you mentioned here. In fact I don't know what this LBALUM is also. But since you asked, I have a look at P Metal.
I saw a "big Head Devil" here. PMetal has impressive projects in Sarawak, the huge aluminum smelting plant which is in full operation now, and a few huge operations in China. Appeared to be very impressive. However, after normalizing its earnings to just about 100m last year (this year doesn't appear to be better), its ROE is only about 7%, way below my required return of 15% for this company.
PMetal has an astronomical amount of debts, 2.6b against its equity of just 1.4b. So yearly interest payment alone is 108m last year. So Pmetal didn't even earn enough to pay interest payment alone! Worst of all, it has no positive cash flow at all from its operations for at least the last two years(mind you I am not taking about free cash flow). So how? I jsut wonder how Pmetal could pay 6 sen a share dividend last year???
Since you want my valuation, I just give a shot. I use a simple but very useful valuation method basing on its ROE. My requirement of return for this kind of financial is at least 15%. With a NTA of 2.52 per share, I value Pmetal equal to 7%/15%*2.52 or just RM1.20 per share, against its market price of RM2.52 now.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-04 07:26 | Report Abuse
Every year at the beginning of the year, investment banks would recommend some stocks which they think would out-perform the market. Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, TM, Tenaga, Digi, Axiata, Sime, AirAsia etc, the same ones are always on the lists. Nothing wrong with the recommendations as most of them would do well I believe. But the problems of these recommendations are: 1. Almost every investment bank is recommending the same companies, is there any chance that they would earn extra-ordinary return as everyone is chasing the same stocks? 2. Nearly all funds, local or foreign own them because of the liquidity which is good. But if every fund has to own them, won’t the price been chased up long ago to its intrinsic value? 3. Is there any conflict of interest with the investment banks who have funds holding these stocks, or have business dealing with the companies recommending these stocks? 4. Most companies recommended are big capitalized companies. What is the potential of high growth in order to achieve high return in the future? 5. These stocks are well known by everybody in the market, the institutions and retail players. What is the chance that they are selling at bargain price, and hence the chance of high return? Do you have any hidden gem which is tucked in some where undiscovered, unloved and institutional investors have no mandate or interest to buy them for the time being, and selling at bargain price. The chance to earn 50% return a year, a double bagger, five baggers or even ten baggers. An ugly duckling which would turn to a beautiful swan in the near future? Which one and why?