Every year at the beginning of the year, investment banks would recommend some stocks which they think would out-perform the market. Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, TM, Tenaga, Digi, Axiata, Sime, AirAsia etc, the same ones are always on the lists. Nothing wrong with the recommendations as most of them would do well I believe. But the problems of these recommendations are:
1. Almost every investment bank is recommending the same companies, is there any chance that they would earn extra-ordinary return as everyone is chasing the same stocks?
2. Nearly all funds, local or foreign own them because of the liquidity which is good. But if every fund has to own them, won’t the price been chased up long ago to its intrinsic value?
3. Is there any conflict of interest with the investment banks who have funds holding these stocks, or have business dealing with the companies recommending these stocks?
4. Most companies recommended are big capitalized companies. What is the potential of high growth in order to achieve high return in the future?
5. These stocks are well known by everybody in the market, the institutions and retail players. What is the chance that they are selling at bargain price, and hence the chance of high return?
Do you have any hidden gem which is tucked in some where undiscovered, unloved and institutional investors have no mandate or interest to buy them for the time being, and selling at bargain price. The chance to earn 50% return a year, a double bagger, five baggers or even ten baggers. An ugly duckling which would turn to a beautiful swan in the near future? Which one and why?
How about Keladi Maju ? Property developer with projects mainly in Kedah as well as some business in palm oil upstream activities.
Based on 2013 annual report:- • Earnings Yield = 26% • ROIC = 19%
Using the magic formula, the effects of the one-off gains from re-measurement of associates recently were excluded and still showing good value ?
EV/EBIT=3.2 FCF/Rev = 15% CFFO/NI=28% Div yield = 1.9% (kind of poor)
Cash backing of RM0.16 per share Net asset backing of RM0.32 per share
Looks like value buy for me ? Any comments ?
KC, Just some feedback on your spreadsheet. I believe that for example shown for KFIMA the par value is RM1 hence no of shares (B53 in Table2 BS tab) =common stock. But for some stocks where par value is less than RM1, for in the case of Keladi Maju, then the number of shares = Common Stock/Par value. Took some time to figure that out cause I got like 10x the expected NTA initially using your spreadsheet in the original condition.
house, you are good at using the spreadsheet already.
I don't know much about Keladi. Looked at it before some time ago but was not interested. This is mainly because I don't trust the management. The major shareholder Datuk Robert Wong or something owns a few smallish public listed companies and this man is notorious of share manipulation. So I stay away from him. But you don'r listen to me because I myself is not very sure about this. Just read about it somewhere.
Actually Keladi's business was so so. No growth company since 2005 until last year when revenue and profit spurts. More development projects. It was also due to a revaluation of property and some non-cash gain from an investment, about 30m. so you have to discount this one-off item in your valuation.
For me investing in a company or not, the management credibility is the most important.
@kc many thanks for the feedback.. I did discount the 30m from the valuation analysis but you are right in saying the strong performance is only for this year.. sometimes this management credibility need to do more research and your feedback is much appreciated.
Tipster, my problem with Yee Lee is its low margin business, and not impressive asset turnover. This results in low return of invested capital. It has not much growth too. I would prefer to invest in a company with at least 10% ROIC. Here was my previous comments:
Posted by kcchongnz > May 26, 2013 01:16 PM | Report Abuse X Is Yee Lee a great company? Is it a good investment?
Yee Lee has a durable business. It is trading at very attractive valuation too as shown below. My main problem is its very low margin and ROIC. So for me I will pass.
Good company? Good governance Yes Durable business Yes Growth No ROIC No 7% >WACC Balance sheet Yes
Screens for investing ROIC No P/B Yes 0.7 <2.0 PE ratio Yes 8.8 <20
Pinnacle, I never heard of this company until you asked. So you know my opinion will be a novice one.
Medainc's property development and its investment properties do not impress me. The mixed development in Larkin, launched in 2009 has been delayed. The service apartment in Cyberjaya is said to have sold almost all. Really ah? The developer of Summit City in Subang Jaya? I bought one unit when it was first launched, but luckily sold it off before signing S&P.
Management looking at going to pay dividend? So many property companies are paying reasonable dividend every year already. But looking at its balance sheet, Medainc has huge amount of accumulated losses from past year. So how to pay dividend? Actually Meda just started to do well last year when they earned 20m free cash flow, but too bad, had to pay down its debt of 22m. So no dividend. In the future can ah?
ROIC was quite good at 16%, quite good. But can this be maintained? I don't know.
Price wise at 79 sen, PE is 14 and price-to-book 1.8, not really that cheap considering its past performance, its business and history of operations.
Well you may know something I don't know which prompt you interested in this company. But since there are other property companies which i know better, I will give this one a pass.
Posted by inwest88 > Jul 7, 2013 04:12 PM | Report Abuse Hi KC, There a few Messaq counters which are making profits consistently but the share prices do not reflect that. One is EA Holdings. what do you think of this company. Thanks.
I still remember vividly how a famous Malaysian financial blogger posted a number of articles on the rosy prospect of EAH, with its acquisition of a RFID company, DDSB about one and a half years ago. He said EAH was so clever in acquisition of DDSB, such a fantastic company at such a cheap price. And that EAH’s business was going to rocket to the sky. At that time I was thinking myself, if DDSB is such a great company, why did they sell to EAH at such a cheap price? What is this EAH so special, a Mesdaq company?
So what happen after that acquisition? Yes, EAH’s revenue has increased from 21m to 46m from 2010 to 2012, or 122%. This is a huge increase, but the absolute revenue is still a small number. More important is what happened to its bottom line? Yes, profit also doubled from 4.1m to 8.6m for the same period, but it is still a very small number. Before the shareholders jump in joy, they must be reminded that the number of shares have increased from 155m to 425m now, about three times the number more. This increase in the number of shares was a result of a right, bonus and share split carried out two years ago.
Post acquisition of DDSB, EAH’s revenue in 2012 improved by 25% to 46m compared to that of 2011. However, its net profit has slipped by 27% from 11.8m to 8.6m. EPS is 1.84 sen. The first quarter results 2012 slipped further in profit. As for its share price, the adjusted share price has dropped badly from about 16 sen to 12 sen now.
The quality of earnings for EAH is very poor. Cash flow from operation last year is a meagre 3.7m, or 48% (<<100%) of net profit. There is little free cash flows left after capital expenses of 3.1m. One third of its net asset of 14 sen per share is made up of “Goodwill”, an over payment on the acquisition of DDSB above its book value.
So even if EAH is “cheap”, which at 12 sen, is trading at a PE ratio of 6.5 and price-to-book of 0.9, I wouldn’t want to include it in my portfolio.
Thanks kcchong, appreciate your sharp analysis. By the way I feel you are a true gentleman, calm, stady and matured. Despite being bombarded with non-nonsensical remarks by others, you just continue to provide your stock analysis. Syabas to you !
if yr equation is true.....then warren buffet is the most useless man as he is sitting at home all the times during the so called "peak working hour" of 9am - 5pm.....
To tell you the truth.....and follow by me........but ....kikikikiki
warren buffet 80s already mah. need a lot of rest. plus he has made it. the richest man wor. who is this donkey? richest malaysian ah? aiyo havent lunch u make me laugh like sheat how to eat lunch.
I sitting at home ....but be able to spot the theme play ....the so-called 'water play'.....month aerlier.......4 ctrs had made profit more than RM 1KK.......as end of last friday when i still in China....
Do you think that the man stay at home is useless???????
newbie, he got do something la. go i3forum teaching ppls how to trade stock la. kakakakaka but his students all now under my tuition already.. aiyo no time leh.
rich people should put their time to use.. doing something useful not saying that they got money and so dont have to do anything. having money means have more to do . that is why one has money in the first place.
I had posted 0n Jan 9......under this forum "do you have hidden gem in 2013"......by sitting at home and discover the "water theme"......how can you can sitting at home is useless????
just KPS alone .... i have made rom551KK on paper on this morning price quoted at 11.07am
optimusprime or optimumcrime, the founder and ceo of Supreme Retard Inc,no one sitting in front of computer anymore, there's such thing call tablet and smartphone. This pathetic ash need to be blown away, fooo....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-01-04 07:26 | Report Abuse
Every year at the beginning of the year, investment banks would recommend some stocks which they think would out-perform the market. Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB, TM, Tenaga, Digi, Axiata, Sime, AirAsia etc, the same ones are always on the lists. Nothing wrong with the recommendations as most of them would do well I believe. But the problems of these recommendations are: 1. Almost every investment bank is recommending the same companies, is there any chance that they would earn extra-ordinary return as everyone is chasing the same stocks? 2. Nearly all funds, local or foreign own them because of the liquidity which is good. But if every fund has to own them, won’t the price been chased up long ago to its intrinsic value? 3. Is there any conflict of interest with the investment banks who have funds holding these stocks, or have business dealing with the companies recommending these stocks? 4. Most companies recommended are big capitalized companies. What is the potential of high growth in order to achieve high return in the future? 5. These stocks are well known by everybody in the market, the institutions and retail players. What is the chance that they are selling at bargain price, and hence the chance of high return? Do you have any hidden gem which is tucked in some where undiscovered, unloved and institutional investors have no mandate or interest to buy them for the time being, and selling at bargain price. The chance to earn 50% return a year, a double bagger, five baggers or even ten baggers. An ugly duckling which would turn to a beautiful swan in the near future? Which one and why?