Posted by datuk > 2013-07-10 12:54 | Report Abuse

sure....you dun understand of what i'm talking here and there....you are a newbie mah..otherwise....you sudah becoming "datuklah"......i had never never expect a newbie to be in that leagueleh... wahaha! wahaha!

Posted by newbiestock > 2013-07-10 13:40 | Report Abuse

datuk. u talk like a small person. good u use the title datuk here or no one will notice u or respect u . wise choice atuk. i am glad. but since i know where u are coming from . i guess i dont have time for u anymore. good bye atuk. jangan main bola depan computer yea!!! wahaha

Posted by newbiestock > 2013-07-10 13:40 | Report Abuse

datuk jangan main bola depan computer yea!!! nanti nenek marah!!! wahaha

Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-07-12 08:50 | Report Abuse

Kcchong, may i know what's your opinion on cenbond? I checked its fundamental and looks fine. low PE, ROE average 10 past 5 years. but div yield quite low. free cash? still can't figure out yet how to see hehe..anyway, heavy selling these 2 days wo. due to price correction?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 08:56 | Report Abuse

Cenbond steve?

Posted by kcchongnz > Jun 3, 2013 10:26 AM | Report Abuse X

Cenbond, is it a good company? Is it a good investment?

By looking at how its share price jumped from 90 sen to RM1.61 at the close of the market on 31/5/2013, there must be something about this company, isn’t it?

Cenbond business includes paper packaging, plastic packaging, contract manufacturing and packing sale of household care products and adhesive products, and investment and property holding.

Revenue for fy ending March 31 2013 shows an improvement of just 3% from 182m to 187m. However its net profit jumped by 32% to 20.6m. Margin improved by 2.6% which is substantial for this type of industry which could positively affect its bottom line. This helps in its return of total capital which improved from 15% to 17%, way above its cost of capital.

Is Cenbond reasonably priced after the jump in its share price recently. Yeah of course. Below is my assessment whether Cenbond is a good company and a good investment.

Cenbond a Good company? 1.610
Good governance ?
Durable business Yes
Growth Yes
ROE Yes 13% >12%
ROTC Yes 17% >WACC
Balance sheet Yes D/E 0.03
Cash flow Yes

Screens for investing
ROTC Yes 17% >WACC
P/B Yes 1.3 <2.0
PE ratio Yes 10.1 <20

Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-07-12 09:32 | Report Abuse

Cool, thanks kcchong. i will add it into watch list :)

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-07-12 09:51 | Report Abuse

Dear valued members,

It is not a recommendation to buy, I just want to show you the Intrinsic value of this stock (MTDACPI). This analysis was done when the price was at 0.545.

MTDACPI IV Calculation

Total Net Profit Years 2/10

Total Positive Operating Cash flow Years 5/10

Total Dividend Payout Years 10/10

Total Positive free Cash flow Year 5/10
22/40
Growth%
10 Years Average Turn Over 511281
Latest 4 quarters 258241 -49.49%

10 Years Average Net Profit -33273
Latest 4 quarters 36705

2011 2012 2013 Growth%
EPS -7 -14.00 15.85
PER -7.79 -3.89 3.44
ROE 0 0 18.17
NTA 0.84 0.73 0.87 19.18%
D'dend 1 1

2011 2012 2013
Net Profit -15024 -31797 36705
Total equity 183710 155078 201982
ROE -8.18% -20.50% 18.17%

Price CAGR % (Buy and Hold)
Average Return History -6.72%
3 yrs Return 6.96%

Method 1
EPS 0.16
g 10.00
Y 7.0
IV= (EPS*(8.5+1.5g)*4.4)/Y 2.34
Current price 0.545
Margin of Safety 76.72%
Potential gain 329.59%

Method 2
Discounted Cash Flows Calculator
Discount rate 12.00%
EPS 0.16
Earning expected to grow (annually) 10.0
for the next (? Years) 3.0
before leveling off to an annual growth 3.00
Calculate Stock Value per share 2.20
Current price 0.545
Margin of Safety 75.23%
Potential gain 303.67%

Method 3
ROE 18.17%
Rr 8.00%
NTA 0.87
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA 1.98
Current Price 0.545
Margin of Safety 72.42%
Potential gain 262.57%

Method 4
(22.5*EPS*Book value per share)^0.5
EPS 0.16
Total equity 201982
Number of shares 231633
(22.5*EPS*Total Equity/share)^0.5 1.76
Current price 0.545
Margin of Safety 69.09%
Potential gain 223.57%

Conclusion
If the price of MTDACPI is 1.76, potential gain is 224%

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-07-12 17:11 | Report Abuse

thanks ooi..

kcchong, what is your formula on calculating fair value? is it very complicated one? last time, i read the book, looks pretty complicated to calculate those future fair value...wondering if there any simpler formula

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-07-12 17:20 | Report Abuse

Good analysis Ooi. How about Prestar ?

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-07-12 17:22 | Report Abuse

kcchongnz, perhaps you may also wish to give your views on Prestar. making good money but price not moving !

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-12 20:07 | Report Abuse

Laggard lower liner

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-12 20:13 | Report Abuse

Posted by Steve Jub > Jul 12, 2013 05:11 PM | Report Abuse
thanks ooi..
kcchong, what is your formula on calculating fair value? is it very complicated one? last time, i read the book, looks pretty complicated to calculate those future fair value...wondering if there any simpler formula

Ooi TB has provided you with some simple methods of valuation. Try understand his methods. I especially like his method using ROE.

For more detail valuations, you may refer to the spreadsheet I sent out to some of you. but it may not be appropriate nor necessary for you.

Often some simple methods may be the better ones.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-13 17:17 | Report Abuse

Prestar making good money, really?

Posted by inwest88 > Jul 12, 2013 05:22 PM | Report Abuse
kcchongnz, perhaps you may also wish to give your views on Prestar. making good money but price not moving !

This steel products company made 9.9 m net profit last year, or an EPS of 4.42 sen. At 42 sen now, the PE ratio is 10. Is it good for investor?

I use Cold Eye's 5 yardsticks (not chopsticks)to evaluate Prestar basing its financial statement in 2012 to see if this company is worth investing as shown below:

Prestar 0.420 13/07/2013
1 ROE 4.2% <12% Bad
Net profit 7685
Equity 181917
2 Cash flows
CFFO 1146 12% Bad
FCF -8179 Negative Bad
3 PE ratio 10.2 >8 Bad
Price 0.45
EPS 0.0442
4 Dividend yield
Dividend , sen 0.6
Dividend yield 1.3% <3% Bad
5 Price/NTA 0.42 <0.8 Good
NTA 1.06

As you can see, I have mostly "Bad" remarks. Its ROE is too low at 4.2%. Do you want to invest in a business with 4.2% return a year?

The quality of Prestar’s earnings is very poor. Cash flow from operation is only 12% of its earnings. Most of its earnings is tied up with increasing inventories (149m) and receivables (157m). It has negative free cash flow. So got to keep on borrowing from banks to fund its business.

With this type of performance, a PE ratio of 10 is considered high. Its price-to-NTA seems to be low at only 0.4. But that also depends on the quality of its assets which is far from good.

Its dividend of 0.6 sen last year, or a dividend yield of 1.3% is far from satisfactory. Anyway, Prestar actually can’t afford to pay any dividend at all because of its poor cash flow. It has to borrow to pay.

Its first quarter results may appear to be good with EPS of 1.8 sen. But huge amount of this “earnings” is tied up in its increasing inventories, now at 181m, and receivables, 163m. Its total debts is more than its total equity, not good.

For me, I will stay far away from Prestar.

Posted by inwest88 > 2013-07-13 17:23 | Report Abuse

Noted with thanks kc.

Posted by Shareholderz > 2013-07-13 17:46 | Report Abuse

what about DAYA?

Posted by wtclau > 2013-07-13 17:49 | Report Abuse

Thanks for the analysis for MTDACPI, Mr Ooi. How about an analysis for Protasco Bhd.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2013-07-13 18:51 | Report Abuse

Dear wtclau,

Sorry !! I cannot help, it is time consuming.

Prtasco is not in my watchlist.

Thank you.
Ooi

Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-07-13 19:16 | Report Abuse

thanks kcchong. i remove my email address first to avoid spam.

Posted by htyeap125 > 2013-07-13 23:42 | Report Abuse

Hi Mr kcchong, why is there a call for the sell of cmmt n the target price is adjusted downward to 1.51. Pls advise,tq

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-07-14 00:49 | Report Abuse

KC, what you think about Heveaboard... manufacturer of particleboards

Good free cashflows but average ROE, ROTC and EV/EBIT. Based on 2012 annual report

PER=4.5
EV/EBIT=12.1
FCF/Rev = 10%
ROIC = 6%
ROE =7.4%
P/B = 0.34

Would you put more weight on FCF or the ROE before investing in a company ? Also when EV/EBIT is much higher than EV/EBITDA, this indicates a high depreciation right ? I would think this applies to asset heavy companies like industrial and telcos... One of the reasons why their cashflows look good too...

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-14 12:18 | Report Abuse

When I put say 10000 (equity) to invest in a company and get a return of 740 a year, or ROE of 7.4%, I may not be happy because I can get a return of say 10% from the stock market. So I might as well take back my 10000 (equity) and invest in the stock market.

But can Hevea liquidate all its properties, plant and equipment, inventories and get back the value of its equity attribute to the shareholders at RM2.30 per share?

I doubt so as the realizable values of its assets could be much lower. So this "equity" is a historical value, unlike bank assets which are marked to market.

Although i talked about ROE, ROIC a lot, often as a guide to investment, but we must understand their limitations.

FCF to me is more tangible. I don't care how much the asset is worth but if it produces a lot of free cash flow, I am very happy. FCF is hard cash to the company. Of course this FCF must be consistent, and not too lumpy.

The other thing is enterprise value. I often compare EV with Ebit to see if the price is right. But that is more of a short cut, lazy to compute ebitda. Mut as I emphasize cash flow more than earnings, so logically I will place more emphasis on Ebitda. Yes, Hevea has high depreciation. This is non cash. So its EV/Ebitda is more important to me. And the picture presented by ebitda for Hevea is much better. An average company selling at very cheap price may be worth investing.

Investors may like Hevea because it has not been paying any dividend for the last few years until last year. But you notice Hevea has quite high debts but this is decreasing for the last few years, very good. Doing this is better than paying dividend.

Also notice that the interest payment each year is high at close to 10m a year. But I don't see it as a big issue because there is good cash flows from its business.

Incidentally, I have some minor difference on some metrics on Hevea with you for 2012 results, not very critical.

EV/Ebit=8.3
ROIC=7.5%
FCF/revenue=12%

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-07-14 17:27 | Report Abuse

KC, all valid points... so, are u interested in hevea ? whats your intrinsic value estimate ?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-14 17:59 | Report Abuse

house,
Certainly. Show me yours and we discuss.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-14 18:41 | Report Abuse

Daya ada Kaya tak?

Posted by Shareholderz > Jul 13, 2013 05:46 PM | Report Abuse
what about DAYA?

Posted by kcchongnz > May 31, 2013 08:20 AM | Report Abuse X
Daya, follow the expert
Posted by skyland > May 29, 2013 08:29 AM | Report Abuse
how about daya recommend by cold eye?

Not only cold eye recommended this, Philip Capital also recently strongly recommended this. This is what PC said:

"We like Daya for its huge outstanding order book of RM1.3bn which is 5x of its market cap. Despite the huge orders in hand, the management is still pushing for aggressive expansion. Investors looking for "cheap" share and trading at reasonable valuation yet has huge potential, Daya is a good choice."

Should we follow the expert? Daya is another construction company. Does it stand out as "special"? Well as far as growth is concerned as given by PC, it does seem Daya meets an attribute of a good company.

For me, I have Pintaras. Hence to invest in another construction company, it must be very good. Its net profit margin was only 7.1%. ROE and ROIC for 2012 is only 8.5% and 9% respectively. Nothing to shout about. In fact they are way below my requirement. Its balance sheet is ok lah with D/E ratio of 0.3. However there is no free cash flow. But of course its first quarter results 2013 has improved. But to me it is still too early to judge if the full year results will be also good.

I have said many times before as a civil engineer involving in construction. High order book doesn't necessary will translate to good profit. Often it is the contrary. To me high margin is more important.

So I will not be interested in it. Below is my assessment.

Daya a Good company? 0.270
Good governance ?
Durable business ?
Growth Yes
ROE No 8.5% <12%
ROTC Neutral 8.9% about WACC
Balance sheet OK D/E 0.33
Cash flow Neutral

Screens for investing
ROTC Neutral 9% about WACC
P/B Yes 1.4 <2.0
PE ratio Yes 17.0 <20

Posted by aunloke > 2013-07-14 19:36 | Report Abuse

I think most of the hidden gems have been uncovered and the market is in the late stage of a mania though it may move up further.I would prefer asset protection to taking a big risk for may be a small gain.With all the bad news stacked against US ,EU,japan and of course our country I don't think we can have a superbull so the risk reward ratio may not be favourable in taking big commitment. Care to discuss ?

Posted by faberlicious > 2013-07-14 21:27 | Report Abuse

Using Ooi Teik Bee Method 3 to calculate MAGNI-TECH INDUSTRIES IV

Method 3
ROE 18.12%
Rr 8.00%
NTA 1.91
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA 4.32
Current Price 2.04
Margin of Safety 52.77%
Potential gain 111.76%

Posted by sephiroth > 2013-07-14 22:35 | Report Abuse

i think the market have not uncover MBL, treating this counter like trash

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-07-15 00:52 | Report Abuse

DCF method to calculate HEVEABOARD intrinsic value


Discount rate :-10%
Projected growth for next 10 years - 5%
Terminal growth - 0%
Intrinsic value = 0.99
Margin of safety (22%)

Discount rate :-10%
Projected growth for next 10 years - 5%
Terminal growth - 3%
Intrinsic value = 1.41
Margin of safety (45%)

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-15 05:27 | Report Abuse

Posted by faberlicious > Jul 14, 2013 09:27 PM | Report Abuse
Using Ooi Teik Bee Method 3 to calculate MAGNI-TECH INDUSTRIES IV
Method 3
ROE 18.12%
Rr 8.00%
NTA 1.91
IV= ROE/ Rr*NTA 4.32
Current Price 2.04
Margin of Safety 52.77%
Potential gain 111.76%

faberlicious,
Well done. Some comments here.
This method of using ROE to value is a good, quick and simple method of valuation. It is especially useful for companies with assets closed to actual, present and marked to marker companies like banks, insurance companies, etc. If a company's asset is too historical, or with a lot of goodwill and intangibles, it may not be that accurate because "NTA" may not be real.

Your Rr of 8% appears to be a little too liberal to me. With a long-term corporate bond rate of 7% (not very sure of this, hope someone can enlighten), the risk premium is only 1%.

Specifically for magni, for me as I don't know enough of the management, and also the competitive industry, I personally would want to use a higher risk premium. I would use 12% as Rr.

Nothing is right or wrong here, just personal preference.

Posted by faberlicious > 2013-07-15 12:03 | Report Abuse

ok,thanks kc. Btw,where got industry that is not competitive?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-15 12:17 | Report Abuse

faberlicious,
You are right. Most industries are competitive. But I think some industries are more competitive, such as garment industry where cheap labour is everywhere in the third world.

But for Magni, i am more wary about the management. Who is the major shareholder of magni? Is the management credible? I am not sure about magni myself but i do have some doubts. It pays to check this thing out if you intend to invest heavy in magni, because on the surface, magni does seem to be a good company worthy of investing.

Posted by mlg123 > 2013-07-15 12:25 | Report Abuse

kcchongz,

what do you think of GUH? the company have net cash per share of 90 cents and eps is roughly 3-4 cents per share lately due to much lower contribution from its main business of PCB manufacturing.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-15 12:51 | Report Abuse

Posted by houseofordos > Jul 15, 2013 12:52 AM | Report Abuse
DCF method to calculate HEVEABOARD intrinsic value
Discount rate :-10%
Projected growth for next 10 years - 5%
Terminal growth - 0%
Intrinsic value = 0.99
Margin of safety (22%)

Discount rate :-10%
Projected growth for next 10 years - 5%
Terminal growth - 3%
Intrinsic value = 1.41
Margin of safety (45%)

house, I got the exactly the same intrinsic value of Hevea as you do. It was just a coincidence as we are using different assumptions.

I will use the DCFA of a firm as Hevea has a capital structure of considerable debts of about 40%. Using the required return of 15% for equity and 8% for debt, the WACC is about 12%. I use 15% for equity because of its high debts and hence risky. In fact during the US sublime crisis in 2007/2008, Hevea almost went bankrupt due to its heavy debt then.

Hevea's margin is not consistent due to the nature of its business in particle board and furniture in the export market. Last year ebit margin (5.8%)is about the average for the last few years and hence I used that margin to obtain its ebit for the next few years. A growth rate of 5% and 3% is assumed for the next 5 years and subsequently as your. I also assume a tax rate of 25% which is very conservative as Hevea actually has tax credit last year.

Hevea also has about 42m warrants outstanding and using Black-Scholes option pricing, I obtained the value of this warrant of about 7.7 m. This value is subtracted from the intrinsic value due to the equity holders.

Hevea has an excess cash of about 28m which I have added into its total intrinsic value.

Somehow my estimation of its intrinsic value is the same as yours. So I think Hevea presents us a good investment with a margin of safety of more than 40%.

Posted by htyeap125 > 2013-07-15 13:38 | Report Abuse

Mr KcChongnz, may i know how to find the intrinsic value of a company?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-15 15:38 | Report Abuse

Finding the intrinsic value of a company is more of an art than a science. Each person, using different assumptions will get different intrinsic value. It is not engraved in stone.

First place to find is from analysts' report. Usually they use "target price", usually basing on forward PE ratio of something. Many people in i3 forums also give their target prices, but take them with a pinch of salt.

Alternatively, try referring to what Ooi Teck Bee did for some of his stocks in i3, or using discount cash flow analysis like what housefordos and I did. But first you must know how to read and interpret financial statements, and time value of money.

Also take our opinions with a pinch of salt too.

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-15 15:44 | Report Abuse

also avoid "report" that keep turning like roti canai, copied and paste using formula from web and books, twisted story to suite someone else preference, until a simple roe also cannot get it right :D

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-15 16:28 | Report Abuse

Posted by iafx > Jul 15, 2013 03:44 PM | Report Abuse
also avoid "report" that keep turning like roti canai, copied and paste using formula from web and books, twisted story to suite someone else preference, until a simple roe also cannot get it right :D

Hey, welcome here. Please don't disappear again.

I have asked you numerous times about your accusations here. Here I ask again. Please be responsible and give substantiations;

1) How are my "reports" turning like roti canai?
2)What twisted stories I have told?
3)How is that I cannot get ROE right? So what is your understanding of ROE? Give examples.
4) You also said numerous times I bullshit. I have written hundreds of posts. Show me which particular post or posts I bullshit?

I have written many posts, many of them answering questions from forumers and I haven't encountered anyone (I mean anyone who is rational), accusing me of bullshitting, copy and paste, twisting, roti canai etc etc like what you have been doing.

Now is my take on you again.
1) You know nothing, absolutely nothing about finance and investments.
2) You have written 1929 posts, none, absolutely none at all which shows that you know anything about finance and investments.
3) Don't agree with the above? Please come to this thread created for us to discuss about finance and investment. Show that at least you know something, if not better than me.
http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/forum/900218979.jsp

Posted by iafx > 2013-07-15 16:35 | Report Abuse

watchout for si-tipu-pusing-roti-canai cerita like the following when finding intrinsic value, this is one good example when knowing a key stakeholder is dumping shares, yet can write like this:

"only the major shareholders know exactly why he keeps on disposing the shares. If I have so much stake in the company like him, I may want to dispose some to give to my children, buy a couple of villas in Queenstown, NZ, buy a few bungalows for my children, my mistresses etc etc. And I can also diversify my investment, use the proceeds to buy Kumpulan Fima, Pintaras Jaya, Haio, GAB, or invest in some startup companies to help entrepreneurship etc etc. "

Posted by j harcharanjit a/l jalaur singh dhillon > 2013-07-15 16:50 | Report Abuse

http://www.klsescreener.com/

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-15 16:51 | Report Abuse

Anyone else find my statement tipu pusing? Anyway I was answering a question from a forumer why the major shareholder of SKPRes selling his shares, not when I am doing any estimation of intrinsic value of anything. aiseh, he can't even differentiate what is "estimating the intrinsic value" and what is "why the major shareholder is selling his shares"

Appended below are the question and answer. Please tell me what is wrong with my reply, or is it this iafx bugger is kookoo one.

Posted by inwest88 > Jul 11, 2013 01:16 PM | Report Abuse
Thanks kcchong. But I am rather puzzled by the disposal by the major shareholders. It the share is under-valued, the company should be initiating share-buy backs. Also, why cant they wait for the prices to go higher before selling.

Posted by kcchongnz > Jul 11, 2013 01:31 PM | Report Abuse X
inwest88, only the major shareholders know exactly why he keeps on disposing the shares. If I have so much stake in the company like him, I may want to dispose some to give to my children, buy a couple of villas in Queenstown, NZ, buy a few bungalows for my children, my mistresses etc etc. And I can also diversify my investment, use the proceeds to buy Kumpulan Fima, Pintaras Jaya, Haio, GAB, or invest in some startup companies to help entrepreneurship etc etc.

The company is already distributing good dividend, which is more tangible to shareholders than share buyback. The company also need cash for capital expenses for future growth.

Posted by iafx > Jul 11, 2013 01:35 PM | Report Abuse
hahahaa... kuat pusing cerita ni... hahahaa...

Posted by j harcharanjit a/l jalaur singh dhillon > 2013-07-15 16:51 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-07-15 17:01 | Report Abuse

kc, i googled black scholes model for calculating warrant intrinsic value and the formula is rather complicated... do you have a spreadsheet that calculates this easily ?
http://bradley.bradley.edu/~arr/bsm/pg04.html

not sure how to determine some of those statistical inputs for the equation.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-15 17:02 | Report Abuse

house, give me your email

Posted by tonylim > 2013-07-15 17:06 | Report Abuse

me too, bole ka?

Posted by houseofordos > 2013-07-15 17:27 | Report Abuse

noby81@yahoo.com... many thanks

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-16 04:53 | Report Abuse

Posted by htyeap125 > Jul 13, 2013 11:42 PM | Report Abuse
Hi Mr kcchong, why is there a call for the sell of cmmt n the target price is adjusted downward to 1.51. Pls advise,tq

good question but how do you expect me to know? But as usual, though I don't know, I will try to find something and make a comment. Take it with a pinch of salt.

I have never followed this stock CMMT. I guess it is a REIT. This stock was trading between 1.85 to 1.90 until it suddenly dropped by a relatively large amount to 1.65 some time middle of June.

Hooray, I guessed it correctly, RHB made a sell call on 12/7/13, yes, after the drop, to a target price of 1.51. So of course many people followed the "expert" and the share continued to drop to 1.64.

So my answer and guess is, investment bank always make calls after the fact of which no one can benefit; and the public follows the calls of the so-called expert.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-07-16 05:29 | Report Abuse

Posted by aunloke > Jul 14, 2013 07:36 PM | Report Abuse
I think most of the hidden gems have been uncovered and the market is in the late stage of a mania though it may move up further.I would prefer asset protection to taking a big risk for may be a small gain.With all the bad news stacked against US ,EU,japan and of course our country I don't think we can have a superbull so the risk reward ratio may not be favourable in taking big commitment. Care to discuss ?

Is there a a mania? If you go to the wet market, do you hear uncles and aunties giving stock tips? When you go to a coffee shop, are there a lot of people talking about which stock to buy? When you have a gathering with your relatives, is stock a hot topic? In the media (non-business), are there a lot of talk on the stock market?

Bad news? Can't recall which year no bad news. 4 years ago after the sublime crisis, people said we were heading to the great depression. One year after that, the Dubai problem, the PIGS problems, the QE problems, the China problems, the fear of General election etc etc.

So how ah?

Posted by aunloke > 2013-07-16 09:04 | Report Abuse

Good , at least I have someone to discuss about the situation . What I'm trying to do is to ask our friends here to pay more attention to the market movement and not to keep on looking for what to buy. Maybe I used the word too strongly, illogical may be more suitable . you see our bursa tags closely to DOW which is definitely a mania with none of the data is good and yet at all time high. QE3 is crazy and yet our market is dragged in , when it crashes ( not if ) bursa follows. Our economic data has nothing to cheer about but bursa is pushing for new height, just how high can it go ? I doubt it can be a superbull maybe just above 1800, so the gain from buying now is limited but the drop ( following DOW ) can be serious. I'm sure with the recent high most of us made good gain ,it's good to keep some profit in cash. I'm still in the market with only 30% cash. I hope my posting can draw some attention to this situation.

Posted by Steve Jub > 2013-07-16 09:44 | Report Abuse

KCchong, just wondering why some of the good stock like MYEG will keep surging even the PE is so high?

Posted by aunloke > 2013-07-16 11:15 | Report Abuse

BTY if we are looking for the gems that can give the gain more than 50% among the 2nd and 3rd liners we must take note that these stocks on the ave. cannot command a PE more than 10 so these gems must be with the PE less than 6.6 which is very hard to find now. Anyway I found one - YOCB. the forward EPS should be at least 12 sen, with the market price at 66 sen the PE is 5.5, financial position not bad, dividend will be 3-4 sen , of course I bought it much lower and will add more when it dips.