Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-12 13:37 | Report Abuse

The Unloved Altman Z Score for KNM
Z = 1.2X_1 + 1.4X_2 + 3.3X_3 + 0.6X_4+1X_5

X_1 = Working Capital / Total Assets

X_2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets

X_3 = EBITDA / Total Assets

X_4 = Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities

X_5 = Net Sales / Total Assets


From the last financial statements of KNM, Z=0.54

When Z is >= 3.0, the firm is most likely safe based on the financial data.
When Z is 2.7 to 3.0, the company is probably safe from bankruptcy, but this is in the grey area and caution should be taken.
When Z is 1.8 to 2.7, the company is likely to be bankrupt within 2 years.
When Z is <= 1.8, the company is highly likely to be bankrupt.

No, I am not saying KNM is going to bankrupt. The Altman Score is just a guide, a very good guide for companies having high debts.

Yeah I know I know, General Lee is going to goreng this stock for the benefit of all of us here.

Posted by 爱丽斯 梦幻世界 > 2013-05-12 13:51 | Report Abuse

nice score? kc, can u help me check the Altman Z score for YtlPowr?

Posted by samsam92 > 2013-05-12 14:40 | Report Abuse

hi..kc..this formula seems like interesting to me and can you guide me how to get 0.54 for the z?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-12 15:43 | Report Abuse

samsam92, for KNM Z score. 爱丽斯 梦幻世界 try yourself first then you will know how to do it for any company.

KNM
Working capital -143271
Total assets 3903193
X1 -0.036706102
Retained earnings 457275
X2 0.117154084
EBITDA 72991
X3 0.018700331

X4 0.347
Net sale 590240
X5 0.151219783

Z 0.54108338

Posted by rlch > 2013-05-12 16:14 | Report Abuse

How about REIT stocks which some investors like for their dividend? Do REIT stocks have good Altman Z score? Do they go bankrupt?

Posted by samsam92 > 2013-05-12 18:30 | Report Abuse

ok thx kc..

Posted by samsam92 > 2013-05-12 19:33 | Report Abuse

hi.kc..which year of balance sheet are u using to calculate knm?i use 2011 annual report cannot get that amount also.

Posted by reyes430 > 2013-05-12 19:48 | Report Abuse

Thanks KC.

Posted by 爱丽斯 梦幻世界 > 2013-05-12 21:23 | Report Abuse

I still duno how to calculate... but i can reffer to book --> Dynaquest.
year 2011 Z score for Ytlp = 1.18 only, TM =1.51, Tenaga = 1.63,??? i check again for PN17 ctr --> Silver, Z's for yr 08 =2.42, yr 09 = 2.28, yr 2010 = 2.73! Maybe i reffer to wrong book?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-13 12:40 | Report Abuse

samsam92, I used the latest quarterly report as at 31/3/2013. I annualized the revenue and earnings by multiply the quarterly sales and earnings by 4.

You could use the annual financial statement ended 31/12/2012. There may be small difference. However it does not change the status of its Z score, I think. Basically this is because KNM's balance sheet is like shit, and its earnings is "kan na m." Sorry sorry ah.

Altman Z score is very useful in predicting the probability of the bankruptcy risk of a company, especially for a company with a bloated balance sheet. KNM is an excellent example.

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-13 12:43 | Report Abuse

Oop sorry. MY KNM Z score was based on its latest annual financial statement ended 31/12/2012.

Posted by samsam92 > 2013-05-13 12:51 | Report Abuse

ya..i am not interested in knm at all..just want to know how bro kc use this formula..so have to look at their balance sheet and count..okok i try to calculate and see..sorry newbie here..so need your help..

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-14 05:25 | Report Abuse

爱丽斯 梦幻世界, Basing on the half year financial report 2013, with the annualized total sales and EBITDA, the Z score for YTLP is 1.4 <1.8. Does it mean that YTLP is highly likely to be bankrupt? Not at all.

The reason why YTLP has such a low Z score is because of its very high debts of 23 billion Ringgit. Annual interest payment amounts to 400m a year. However, YTLP has a steady recurring cash flow from operations of more than 2 billion a year.

But can this be said about companies like KNM, Patimas, Amedia, Smartag etc etc?

YTLP
Working capital 7681314
Total assets 39069402
X1 0.1966069
Retained earnings 6294893
X2 0.161120792
EBITDA 2982828
X3 0.076346907

X4 0.394
Net sale 16555414
X5 0.423743727

Z 1.373301211

Z= 0.236

Posted by Tapai > 2013-05-14 07:01 | Report Abuse

Mr KCC.. How to find Market Value Equity and Total Liabilities. little bit confuse

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-14 07:12 | Report Abuse

market value of equity = share price*no. of shares
Total liabilities given in balance sheet

Posted by 爱丽斯 梦幻世界 > 2013-05-14 08:22 | Report Abuse

thx kcchongnz

Posted by Tapai > 2013-05-14 08:26 | Report Abuse

Thanks..

Posted by kcchongnz > 2013-05-15 07:25 | Report Abuse

The Unloved Altman Z Score for Ivory


X_1 = Working Capital / Total Assets 0.539

X_2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets 0.157

X_3 = EBITDA / Total Assets 0.068

X_4 = Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities 0.593

X_5 = Net Sales / Total Assets 0.252

Z 1.700

When Z is >= 3.0, the firm is most likely safe based on the financial data.
When Z is 2.7 to 3.0, the company is probably safe from bankruptcy, but this is in the grey area and caution should be taken.
When Z is 1.8 to 2.7, the company is likely to be bankrupt within 2 years.
When Z is <= 1.8, the company is highly likely to be bankrupt.