Posted by Annetan > 2016-01-25 12:35 | Report Abuse

Yes,that what he is saying.The thing is the whole is so bearish on oil and he didn't say rebound but flaming big bull market lead by oil and gas counters.For that to happen there must be something happening for the whole world to change it's outlook on oil price to have a bullrun.The fact he has not be wrong in such a major call like this keep me looking at oil and gas counters.In fact I kiasu and went it earlry which I cut it out but went in again the call warrants when oil was hitting ard $28 something which in my opinion is rather low already.Of course low can get lower,I didn't a lot at atime till I see a rebound in oil on Friday.

Posted by BeatIt > 2016-01-25 12:36 | Report Abuse

Today aro usd 32 lehhh...

Posted by Annetan > 2016-01-25 12:41 | Report Abuse

Oil is 32,37 yesterday's high is 32.62 and today is 32.42.Looks like ard 32.4 is quite a strong resistance which is ard the low in 2009.Not surprisingly since it moves from 27 somethhing in just a few days time

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-25 12:43 | Report Abuse

oil is grossly oversold.
no one has been able to tell me demand for oil has disappeared......not even China.

Posted by Annetan > 2016-01-25 12:48 | Report Abuse

Yes indeed it has but the fact people who long on oil due to oversold has been slapped with heavy losses hence you can see many are very skeptical on oil bottoming and wanting to short on a higher level which they believe will come down in a few days time.People who long also are very nervous.The move downwards and speed it does of oil future is probably one of the worst that I have ever seen in my lifetime since I started trading 1992!

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-25 12:56 | Report Abuse

doesn't matter. You are not a oil trader. doesn't affect you.
the only truth is Oil is grossly oversold.
whether your are chartists or fundamentalist and behaviourists....the only valid conclusion is Oil is grossly oversold.




<Yes indeed it has but the fact people who long on oil due to oversold has been slapped with heavy losses hence you can see many are very skeptical on oil bottoming and wanting to short on a higher level which they believe will come down in a few days time.People who long also are very nervous.The move downwards and speed it does of oil future is probably one of the worst that I have ever seen in my lifetime since I started trading 1992!>

Posted by gray > 2016-01-25 12:56 | Report Abuse

If shorty start shorting big at these 32 level. U can see 22-25 soon.
I donno if they r doing it. Need to watch few dwys.

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-25 12:59 | Report Abuse

doesn't really matter whether they short or not, whether oil go to $22 or not.......suffice to know it is at an unsustainably low price. ...no matter from whatever angle you look at it.


======Posted by gray > Jan 25, 2016 12:56 PM | Report Abuse

If shorty start shorting big at these 32 level. U can see 22-25 soon.
I donno if they r doing it. Need to watch few dwys.

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-01-25 13:14 | Report Abuse

This up n down movements in oil is called noise. Unless u are an oil trader/ currency trader u will be very concerned. That is also if u short or long in very huge amounts for a short period of time..less than a day. This is your typical traders. Thriving on volatility.

I believe oil is also grossly oversold but this does not mean it will go up soon. Prices can be depressed due to sentiment factors or psychological factors..so it's just hard to tell!

Now is there's time to follow the true saying of buy low sell high.

I believe oil n gas sectors are depressed like hell now. So try to get one with good prospects n less debt. Now u may still see the prices still go lower that is noise n volatility..u can't get rid of it. U will need nerves of steel.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2016-01-25 13:17 | Report Abuse

Oil price most likely will oscillate between USD 20/bbl to USD 60/bbl over the next few years before it chose its new direction
- stay where it is
- go down further
- or go up

Those that believe that Oil price will recover and go up believe that China will continue to continually rise..

Those who are skeptical about oil price going up are indeed fearing China's continuing its continual fall...

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-25 13:19 | Report Abuse

perfectly agree with this para.

But....but you cannot hunt for OG counters yet....still too early....the co relation with oil price is not so direct, not so strong and not so immediate that you can profit from.


<Posted by coolinvestor > Jan 25, 2016 01:14 PM | Report Abuse

This up n down movements in oil is called noise. Unless u are an oil trader/ currency trader u will be very concerned. That is also if u short or long in very huge amounts for a short period of time..less than a day. This is your typical traders. Thriving on volatility. >

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-01-25 13:20 | Report Abuse

Upstream downstream doesn't really matter for us unless u have an army of analysts at your side. Simple ppl like us try to look for opportunities n must grab it if it's there. Again buy at your own risk.

If u Dun even have the stomach to see your simple cash of 1000 lose half it's value..u just dun have the nerves of step to succeed. Then just dun buy n invest in properties n not shares

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-01-25 13:28 | Report Abuse

Where oil prices go..its really hard to say lo. Tts why Warren Buffet also cepat buy a cheap asset refinery first.

Posted by Annetan > 2016-01-25 13:31 | Report Abuse

I totally agree with Coolinvestor,you need nerves of steel to be very successful in sharemarket investing.No matter how very cheap you buy in terms of fundamental valuation,you can still suffer losses.massive if you wallop.Character of a person is also important in share investing.Some people just cannot stomach too much losses and on thr other hand some people just have the nerves of steel.The latter who viewed it rightly are handsomely rewarded.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2016-01-25 13:39 | Report Abuse

If a refinery has
- good cost management
- a management culture that empowers productivity increase
- selling refined products with strong moat
- a readily available captive market to sell the refined products, no need to find new customers and incur incremental expenses
- forward PE in single digits
- prospect of low crude oil prices for extended periods of time

Why hesitate to buy? WB did not hesitate..He just made the decision to BUY!!!

Posted by Desa20201956 > 2016-01-25 14:09 | Report Abuse

Sun...America sells petrol at market....you sell at market price meh?

Posted by coolinvestor > 2016-01-25 14:22 | Report Abuse

I think dialog has a shared refinery in rapid pengerang...dunno share with who. And dunno refine what chemical

Posted by sunztzhe > 2016-01-25 22:25 | Report Abuse

http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-tumble-3-as-focus-shifts-back-to-global-supply-glut-381563

Crude Oil price is back to Fundamentals again of SUPPLY VS DEMAND after covering of the shorts. Renewed concerns on GLOBAL SUPPLY GLUT...AND... SLOWING GLOBAL DEMAND

Posted by sunztzhe > 2016-01-25 23:20 | Report Abuse

Oil dropped after Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest crude exporter, said low prices won’t reduce its spending on energy projects and China’s diesel consumption dropped for a fourth consecutive month.

Futures dropped as much as 4.6 percent in New York. Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Saudi Aramco, is maintaining its investment plans despite the rout in the crude market, Chairman Khalid Al-Falih said Monday. Diesel use in China dropped 5.6 percent in December compared with a year earlier and gasoline consumption grew at the slowest pace in more than two years.

Saudi Aramco is spending as much now as it did before the crash in crude prices, signaling no surrender in Saudi Arabia’s battle with rivals. It’s formulated a new strategy in response to cheaper crude, Al-Falih said at a conference in Riyadh. The state-run producer can sustain low oil prices for “a long, long time,” he said.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2016-01-25 23:45 | Report Abuse

Saudi Arabia being the lowest cost producer is waging war against the higher cost producers but this war of attrition will be long and protracted before Saudi Arabia emerge victorious. Saudi Arabia's shocking strategy is game changing to the Global Oil & Gas industry.

Meanwhile the other Oil majors will be under tremendous pressures to stay afloat let alone stay competitive and will resort to drastic cost cutting, cutting CAPEX, retrenching its workforce , re-strategize, restructure its business operations and/or downsize to lower its business operating costs. There will be some who could not hack it and they will go under.

At this moment none of the Oil Majors had gone bankrupt.Once that happens, we can safely say that Crude Oil price has bottomed.

Posted by Pavillion > 2016-01-26 07:58 | Report Abuse

Hi Sunztzhe, if you plan long on O&G i.e. buy during dips. Which stock do you recommend? i.e. one most unlikely go bust (avoid high gearing co..most of loan taken @USD100) and one which will recover weĺl. Tq.

Posted by sunztzhe > 2016-01-26 09:21 | Report Abuse

Hi Pavillion, Most Oil majors including PETRONAS are cutting CAPEX. So visibility is rather murky and most likely one can reasonably expect more earnings disappointment from players in the UPSTREAM sector especially those with high gearing. I will avoid upstream at the moment as crude oil is in process of bottoming and there is little visibility on how long this bottoming process will take. I will look at their cash position, cashflows, whether they continue to receive contracts but then again future cash flows may disappoint in an environment when CAPEX are being cut which leads to reduced earning and potential losses.

However the Refineries had turnaround since beginning 2015.Both are showing positive EPS as of YTD Q3R 2015. PETRONM and SHELL delivered cumulative Q3R 2015 of 75.7 cents/share and 85.1 cents/share respectively. Based on cumulative EPS , both companies are in single digit PEs.

The beneficiaries of low crude oil prices for an extended period will be refineries plus the export sectors on proviso that they are not near or fully valued