BUMI ARMADA BERHAD
KLSE (MYR): ARMADA (5210)
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Last Price
0.545
Today's Change
+0.005 (0.93%)
Day's Change
0.535 - 0.55
Trading Volume
16,316,600
Details of Changes
Securities After Change
Transactions
| Ann. Date | Name | Details of Changes | Securities After Changes | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Type | No. of Shares | Price | Direct (%) | Indirect (%) | Total (%) | ||||
Discussions
45 people like this. Showing 50 of 72,428 comments
this method ananda still very hard to cash out it shares,does he want to continue it's business with such age ?
6 days ago
Amarda assets are highly in demand due to limited supply , good fit to MISC especially able to get it at ~RM$1.05 now. Ananda doesnt need cash, he needs cash generating assets to benefit his future generations lah.
5 days ago
50c to 78c gives 50% upside.
I can't ignore the healthy gain for this mergers.
Else, it will stay below 50c forever
5 days ago
In all these discussions and valuations floating around, people hardly mention the Insonesian Akia interest that Amanda is anchoring its future on and indeed it is their new direction. Are MISc going to get that for free?
5 days ago
For the moment all analysts are pencilling zero valuation for Akia stake as Bumi Armada gas yet to share any formal appraisal or the discovery. I believe they've undertaken seismic studies a couple months ago and may know more in the coming months. Obviously if there is value here, then it is management's duty to ensure it gets added to the EV and the share swap deal reflects that accordingly.
5 days ago
Keep BUY, new MYR0.73 TP from MYR0.70, 36% upside. After updating the ESG scoresheet for the energy sector stocks under our coverage, we raise our ESG score for Bumi Armada to 2.9 from 2.7 – and adjust our TP accordingly. We favour Bumi Armada for its dedication to emissions tracking, strong waste management practices, and commitment to achieving net zero by 2050. • The positives. Since the launch of its Net Zero by 2050 target last year, Bumi Armada has made substantial strides in its sustainability efforts. The company has a strong focus on monitoring and aligning GHG emissions with reporting principles, enabling a more robust understanding of its Scope 1 and 2 emissions as of 2023, following alignment with GHG protocol classifications. Additionally, the group’s recent decline in overall emissions and its effective waste management efforts stand out as notable achievements in its sustainability journey. • Areas of improvement. In its FPSO operations, Bumi Armada reported 128.7 tCO2e per thousand tonnes of production for Scope 3 emissions, a level slightly above the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers or IOGP baseline for 2022. However, we note that the group has ongoing efforts to support clients in identifying Scope 3 reduction opportunities. Regular updates on its low carbon and/or renewable energy (RE) initiatives as well as a clear set of medium-term goals would provide greater clarity and confidence in its move towards achieving net zero. Enhancing the transparency and frequency of reporting on these fronts could also strengthen its alignment with global standards and investor expectations. • ESG score update. Reflecting its recent advancements, Bumi Armada’s ESG score has been raised to 2.9 from 2.7. We are upbeat on its comprehensive emissions tracking, which includes Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions, as well as intensity metrics. This level of detailed reporting enhances transparency and is in line with best practices, reflecting a robust commitment to achieving its net-zero target by 2050. Additionally, the group’s strong waste management practices support its broader sustainability goals.
5 days ago
CGS International in its latest update is valuing MISC offshore business unit on DCF whereas it is valuing BAB on SOP to come up with 66.7% eventualy stake in ME held by MISC. nikicheong, won't it be more fair for both parties if the same valuation method is used, namely if it is DCF or SOP then both parties should be valued on the same valuation method?
5 days ago
Bumi Armada is currently working on the following potential projects:
1. FSU/FSRU for SVT with Enquest
2. FCSIU for CSS Hub with Sarawak Shell
3. FLNG for Madura with Pertamina
4. Undisclosed offshore gas project in Indonesia
5. Budi Onshore gas project in Indonesia
So far no positive developments for any of these.
5 days ago
@Sovereign I believe the valuation basis is same. SOP valuation is derived from the DCF of each asset.
5 days ago
No wonder MISC so eager to buy armada..
MISC shall see the value in armada future project
5 days ago
Thanks nikicheong. At the end of the day Ananda will demand a premium for giving up control of BAB as they usually do. Hope we get to ride on the premium with Ananda
5 days ago
I have just had a look at BAB 2nd half 2024 financial stmts
All the accumulated losses have been wiped off
And now there is a surplus in its reserves account
And with a healthy cash balance of above RM1 billion
Hopefully with a good 3QR financial performance
Perhaps BAB can declate a small dividend
Keeping fingers crossed
5 days ago
Brent oil rebound to usd72. 8
I guess because of Ukraine war uncertainty. Russia claims WW3 to begin
4 days ago
US allows Ukraine to make long-range missile strikes into Russia
By Christian Edwards, CNN
Updated 9:41 AM EST, Mon November 18, 2024
4 days ago
Yes there is a chance, albeit a miniscule one, that a dividend may be declared.
4 days ago
It should be refer to nta $1.05 with premium for takeover normally.
If the oil price continues to rise over usd80 or usd90..., $1.05 shld be no problem
4 days ago
Technical Buy - ARMADA (5210)
PublicInvest
Publish date: Mon, 18 Nov 2024, 09:10 AM
Technical chart: ARMADA
Target Price: RM0.565, RM0.600
Last closing price: RM0.535
Potential return: 5.6%, 12.1%
Support: RM0.500
Stop Loss: RM0.480
Possible for sideways breakout. ARMADA is potentially staging a breakout from its sideways channel, with anticipation of continuous improvement in both momentum and trend in the near term. Should immediate resistance level of RM0.565 be genuinely broken with renewed buying interest, it may continue to lift price higher to subsequent resistance level of RM0.600. However, failure to hold on to support level of RM0.500 may indicate weakness in the share price and hence, a cut-loss signal.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 18 Nov 2024
4 days ago
Not looking good at Kraken. With the drilling cancelled, there is nothing to support the production plateau and the long term viability of the field may be called into question.
https://www.upstreamonline.com/rigs-and-vessels/partner-dispute-leads-to-costly-rig-cancellation/2-1-1741948
2 days ago
The company also announced that it has decided to terminate a rig contract with Dolphin Drilling at its Kraken oilfield after joint venture partners were unable to agree on a 2025 asset drilling programme. This will cost the company $14.6m but reduce 2025 planned capex by $60m.
2 days ago
I won't be surprised if the delay in drilling contributes to a further impairment in Q1 2025. I believe the Kraken FPSO was due for impairment again anyway, this might just make it worse.
2 days ago
accumulated losses finally turn to retained earning 326,899mil .
Prepare yourself for a surprise dividend at any time.
1 day ago
Some thing to note:
USDMYR rates used to report the balance sheet items and unrealized FX losses:
30 June 2024 = RM4.7195/USD
30 Sep 2024 = RM4.1075/USD
22 Nov 2024 = RM4.4675/USD
There is a 13% depreciation just between 30 June and 30 Sep 2024. This can be seen in the lower NTA of RM0.95 (Q3 2024) vs RM1.05 (Q2 2024) as Bumi Armada's assets and liabilities are mainly denominated in USD.
This has also resulted in unrealised FX losses of RM44mil in Q3 2024. This would have also resulted in lower revenues by around 5-10% in the quarter compared to the preceding quarter, which would have directly adversely impacted the bottomline by around RM20-30mil.
Reported net profit = RM211.3mil
Adjustment:
Unrealised FX losses = RM44.0mil
Core net profit = RM211.3mil + RM44.0mil = RM255.3mil
Now if you add another RM20mil to that, you get RM275mil. This would've been Bumi Armada's best quarter on record were it not for the Ringgit blitzing against the Dollar in August and September 2024. Funnily enough, it has given up more than half of the gains since, so this will end up inflating Bumi Armada's profit in Q4 2024.
Note: I believe the unrealized FX losses are part of the "Administrative Expenses" reported on the P&L, which has increased by around RM42mil over the previous quarter.
1 day ago
I've gone through the report. Nothing exceptional or extraordinary to highlight. But there are some interesting tidbits:
1. Despite earning full charter revenue for Armada Sterling V in Q3 2024, share of results of JV and Associates have reduced from RM32mil to RM15mil. I suspect this would be also due to the sharp weakening of USD during the quarter resulting in unrealized FX losses at the JV and associates level.
2. Armada Sterling V FPSO has completed the necessary tests and successfully achieved final acceptance on 1 July 2024. The Group holds a 30% interest in associates involved in the 98/2 Project. The associates are in discussions with the charterer on outstanding claims.
1 day ago
4Q24F may deliver forex gains, vs. forex loss in 3Q24 3Q24 core net profit of RM211m fell 20% qoq, mainly due to RM44m in unrealised forex translation losses as the US$ had depreciated from RM4.72 as at 30 Jun 2024 to RM4.12 as at 30 Sep 2024. Another reason was because of the lower qoq share of associate profits, since BAB had only begun depreciating the FPSO Armada Sterling 5 from 1 Jul 2024 when it had achieved first oil; in the immediately preceding 2Q24, BAB had recognised charter receipts from the FPSO but had not yet started depreciating the asset. Still, we expect BAB to deliver on our FY24F core net profit forecast of RM1bn, as the US$ has appreciated against the ringgit this quarter, and BAB should be able to book-in forex translation gains in 4Q24F. Our reported net profit forecast for FY24F, on the other hand, has been reduced by 25%, as we pencil-in a RM250m impairment of the FPSO Kraken, with BAB already flagging the necessity for impairment over the past two quarterly results briefings. As the impairment is a non-cash accounting charge, there is no negative implication for our DCF valuation of the FPSO’s cashflows. Nevertheless, this is a near-term downside risk to the stock, as some investors may still perceive the likely 4Q24F impairment negatively. FPSO Kraken impairment in 4Q24F already flagged; no cash impact One of the key reasons why we have reduced our FY25-26F core net profit forecasts by 21-27% is because BAB decided to accelerate the depreciation of the FPSO Armada Sterling 5, such that the majority of the asset’s book value will be depreciated by the end of its 9-year firm charter period. If BAB had adopted its usual policy (which we had previously used for our modelling), it would have depreciated the asset over its 16-year charter period, which includes the 7-year option period. We note that the cashflows from the FPSO Armada Sterling 5 remain intact, hence there is no impact to our DCF valuation of the FPSO, even though the accelerated depreciation means that the FPSO will contribute a small net accounting loss to BAB in FY25F. Consequently, our core net profit forecast for FY25F is now 21% lower than our previous forecast, and in fact, a steep 67% lower than our forecast for FY24F. The yoy drop in FY25F core EPS is on account of the FPSO TGT-1 transitioning to a lower daily charter rate (DCR) since 15 Nov 2024, and the FPSO Kraken moving to its lower-DCR option period from 1 Apr 2025F. However, all this has been reflected in our SOP-based target price, and we think that BAB’s share price remains undervalued against that. The proposed merger with MISC’s offshore unit is a potential rerating catalyst, as it may unlock the valuation of BAB to better reflect what we believe to be its underlying fundamental valuation. Reiterate Add.
12 hours ago
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nikicheong
Robert if the share swap is conducted on an Enterprise Value basis, then the Market Value will not be an issue. The market value will slowly catch up to the Enterprise Value prior to the share swap.
Bumi Armada's FPSOs are also mostly at the tail end of their tenures. Meanwhile, MISC has 2 gigantic floating vessels, one of which is Mero 3 which just begun the multi-decade charter recently.
If we take EV of RM4.7bil for Bumi Armada and RM10.0bil for MISC, then Bumi Armada's shareholders' stake in the merged entity will be at 32% vs 68% for MISC. In this calculation, the market value DOES NOT matter. Logically though, the closer we get to a deal, the narrower the EV and MV will be as speculators take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity. There will however always remain a gap between the EV and MV because of the risk of a deal falling through.
Also, the EV can always be revised with new developments, e.g. if Bumi Armada gets any new contracts in the next 6 - 9 months.
6 days ago