RayLee

It closes above 50 cents. Not yet game over

1 month ago

nikicheong

Ananda's demise might cause some panic selling, but does not alter the fundamentals of the company. By and large, the professionals and executives run the show at his businesses, including at Bumi Armada. If anything, it will be a solid opportunity if this heads to the lower 40 sen region to buy in the face of solid fundamentals.

1 month ago

RayLee

It didn't cause any panic selling ..

3 weeks ago

MM78

RayLee, anything happened to Ananda lately ?

3 weeks ago

Penarak

Still languishing in the 0.50 range,with spurts to 0.53 but not being able to maintain .0.60 was there for a day or so.Overall a though stock to keep ahead.Keeps coming back despite good credentials.

3 weeks ago

Macgyver111

OPEC+ has started discussing a possible delay to their planned easing of the production cuts after oil prices crashed in the past days to the lowest level in 9 months, sources in the alliance told Reuters on Wednesday.

3 weeks ago

Gabriel Khoo

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2024/09/06/misc-acquires-full-ownership-of-fpso-kikeh

3 weeks ago

Gabriel Khoo

MISC willing to increase stake for FPSO
Which analyst of the view that MISC will not increase explosure in FPSO?
Good indication ahead

3 weeks ago

Ninja _07

Next week onwards can see price dropping .. all the way to 0.38

3 weeks ago

696988

0.38? you think this is goreng stock meh

3 weeks ago

Macgyver111

I think tomorrow onwards the stock market will be slashed badly due to several reasons. 1st. rate cut and investors eyes on recession 2nd. oil price, which has been declining the past few days. 
Any comment on that?

3 weeks ago

Macgyver111

0.38 consider ok.. hopefully not back to 0.25 again..mati lor, rambut hitam saya sdh beruban tunggu ni Armada naik..😂🤣

3 weeks ago

696988

Impossible back to 0.25 because that time covid-19 + brent oil price 33.

Currently, brent oil 71 same price as during 31,may,2021, armxdx price is 0.430 then the next day is 0.455 if get average will be 0.442 + on that time their averages qtr only have 120m+ and above.
Compare to current situation, same oil price but their average profit is 150m+ and above, + middle east war.

Current oil price drop because of (economic data from China and the U.S. revealed weaknesses in their manufacturing sectors, raising fears of declining demand. Additionally, potential increases in oil supply from Libya, due to political factions nearing an agreement, added downward pressure) take from Trading Economics website.

The most important thing is the next Fed interest rate decision, if interest rate is drop then will be good for economic. When all the money back to the market, everyone start working then oil demand going to increase, but have to depend on OPEC if they keep increasing production then oil price will maintain on same price if not mistaken.

Above comment that is not a suggestion for call buy or sell, if want to buy or sell please contact your own financial advisor.

3 weeks ago

nikicheong

I have averaged up at RM0.47. Long-term, I don't see much of a future given the lack of orderbook replenishment. But in the short to medium term, this looks attractive at current price levels. The risk-return pendulum is now in favour of getting superior returns at lower risk levels.

Thesis:

1. Commencement of full charter of Armada Sterling V - will trickle to bottomline from Q3 2024 onwards, roughly net profits of RM25mil to RM32mil.

2. Imminent charter contract extension for Armada TGT. It will either be a 2+5, or 1+1+1+... (individual annual extension for 7 years), or direct 7+0 extension. At the bare minimum, 2 years is all but confirmed, with a full 7 year extension highly likely eventually.

3. Subsea tieback to the Bressay field is imminent. Next year, there will be a return to drilling at the Kraken field. Taken together, this means the Kraken production will continue far into the 2030s and even beyond. Firm contract period ends in Q1 2025, the first year extension has been agreed. I anticipate continuous annual extensions, or maybe even a renegotiated long-term fixed contract.

4. Extension of the Armada Sterling II charter. The firm charter ended in Q1 2024 and it has entered the first annual extension period. I anticipate continuous annual extensions, or maybe even a renegotiated long-term fixed contract.

5. Debt overhang is all but removed. Bumi Armada has substantial capacity to repay the refinanced debt over the next 6 years from its cashflows from operations.

The above is not even taking into account potential new job win for the subsea vessels in the Caspian Sea (or even their potential divestment), nor does it factor in any new floating job win for Bumi Armada. There are a number of projects that might get awarded in the coming months/years that may add to the upside potential.

i. Shell CCS offshore Sarawak
ii. Sullom Voe FSRU in the North Sea
iii. Uniper FSIU/FCSIU in the UK (Bluestreak CO2)
iv. Madura FLNG
v. Akia PSC (upstream)
vi. Akia PSC (FPSO + FLNG)
vii. Additional PSC (upstream) in Indonesia
viii. Mid-size FPSO win - e.g. Salam-Patawali (Malaysia), Nam Du / U Minh (Vietnam)

3 weeks ago

nikicheong

I have been buying since 2020, always averaging up. My anchor purchase was way back in 2020 and been adding usually once or twice a year ever since. Average price is now RM0.3125 sen.

RM0.225 (2020) > RM0.310 (2021) > RM0.335 (2021) > RM0.39 (2022) RM0.45 (Kraken shutdown in 2023) > RM0.42 (Kraken restart before official announcement) > RM0.47 (now)

3 weeks ago

nikicheong

Kraken Field Summary

Average net production of 13,637 Boepd (2023: 13,082 Boepd) in the first half of 2024 was driven by 98.5% production uptime and 97% water injection efficiency. This exemplary performance is testament to the focus and collaboration between the EnQuest and Bumi Armada operational teams, and the parties are undertaking further process work to extend this excellent performance.

The Group is focused on enhancing the next phase of Kraken operations and is working with its joint venture partner to finalise infill drilling plans for 2025. Work is ongoing to mature the Enhanced Oil Recovery (‘EOR’) project, which presents a material upside to the existing Kraken base reservoir performance. The EnQuest team is advancing the Bressay gas import project as a subsea tieback to Kraken, which will displace the majority of the diesel currently used to power Kraken operations; driving a material reduction in FPSO emissions and materially reducing operating costs. In the second half of 2024, trials will also commence to assess the potential for hydrogenated vegetable oil to be used as a diesel alternative for the equipment that cannot be run on gas. The Kraken maintenance shutdown is ongoing and is expected to be completed within ten days (six days full shutdown and four days on single train operations). The key scope to be completed is the five-yearly swivel inspection.

Source: Enquest 2024 Half-year Results
https://www.enquest.com/fileadmin/content/press_release_pdfs/2024/EnQuest_HY_Results_RNS_vF.pdf

3 weeks ago

Investor128

Armada has wiped off the accumulated losses. Is able to pay dividend from this year onward

2 weeks ago

ocbc

good move

2 weeks ago

TimCoke

too bad, w-shaped double bottom developed coincidently, trap again LOL

2 weeks ago

Heungheungloveyou

don't waste your time in this stock

2 weeks ago

MM78

Thanks Niki, for your excellent write up on Armada.
It reveals some hidden potential for BA. Armada price is getting attractive once again.Tempted to add back part of what I sold earlier in stages if it falls a little further.

2 weeks ago

RayLee

I plan to average when it reach 1 year low price 🙂

2 weeks ago

nikicheong

FPSO contractors lining up for replacement of sizeable Malaysian floater

FPSO companies potentially lining up include Malaysia's MISC and Bumi Armada, India's Shapoorji Pallonji Energy and Singapore-based HBA Future Energy

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exclusive/fpso-contractors-lining-up-for-replacement-of-sizeable-malaysian-floater/2-1-1706125

2 weeks ago

Gabriel Khoo

Is this related misc fpso kikeh in sabah?

2 weeks ago

Macgyver111

I noticed that you guys talking about armada and shapoorji since 2023?
Nothing support the price.. gosh! 🙄🤔.

2 weeks ago

Gabriel Khoo

PTTEP has launched a tender for a replacement floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel for the Kikeh oil and gas field offshore Malaysia, aiming for operations by 2028. The current FPSO, deployed in 2007, supports the Kikeh, Siakap North, and Petai fields, tied to a Spar dry tree unit in waters 1,320 meters deep. FPSO players, including MISC, Bumi Armada, and Shapoorji Pallonji Energy, and HBA have shown interest, with technical offers expected by November 2024. The new FPSO will have a production capacity of 40,000-46,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil and 90 million cubic feet per day (MMcfd) of gas, smaller than the current unit's 120,000 bpd and 150 MMcfd capacity. However, the transition is challenging as the new FPSO must connect to the existing Spar platform, requiring complex integration. Market skepticism also persists due to PTTEP's push for cost-effectiveness, which may limit contractor enthusiasm. XX Despite plans for a new vessel, there's speculation about extending the existing FPSO's life. MISC, which will take full control of the current FPSO in 2025, performed recent maintenance that could extend its service life by 10-20 years. If PTTEP considers prolonging the current unit's lease, it could affect the bid process for the replacement.

2 weeks ago

vespa

This heroic stock is in a moribund state

1 week ago

line

Armada is going to be a stable Company with revenues from the Oil field in kalimantan. Armada akia

1 week ago

line

Going towards E&P is much more stable - something like Hibiscus etc.

1 week ago

line

They can slowly explore Carbon capture etc, develop techs and services. The Potential is there. But strong stable n continuous revenue is needed. Which i think E&P is going to be good choice.

1 week ago

line

Google Pexco and Armada. Seismic activity is happening now.

1 week ago

line

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/indonesia-newcomer-launches-seismic-tender/2-1-1685442

1 week ago

RayLee

tap in again before Armada crosses 0.50 again 🙂

1 week ago

line

Fpso Business is more difficult. E&P is lucrative n stable.

1 week ago

line

The future is bright If akia strikes oil

1 week ago

ageetkumar

Armanda NAPS = 1.05 RM. Doesn't that mean if we sell off all assets pay back all liabilities we will still be left with 1.05 RM? which will probably yield more if we invest in some low risk bonds.

6 days ago

nikicheong

Ageetkumar most of the FPSOs are overstated. The recoverable amount will be much less. That value also assumes they complete the firm period and exercise all the optional periods, very optimistic. In reality, probably discount the NTA by 25% to 50% for an accurate picture.

6 days ago

nikicheong

Also, NTA would be badly hit (to the tune of around 10 sen) with the strong ringgit lately.

6 days ago

Penarak

Still in the marshes of 0.485...

6 days ago

MM78

Armada seems getting attractive at this price range but its lack of new business bothers me somewhat to repurchase back some of what I sold off at average 58.5 sens a few months ago. Painfully or otherwise , I am still holding 30 % of my peak holding volume of Armada shares; it is a love and hate story with Armada for the last 9 years. Loving it for its seemingly stable business with long term FPSO contracts till the Woodside project cancellation and Armada lost in its legal process with client. Its current free cash flow is also attractive and has been properly utilized to pay down it huge debt. Hating it for its series of poor management antics track records with shareholders and more importantly for Not getting new business since Sterling V project. Market punish the shareholders with low prices due to lack of confidence due to its series of shortcoming . Nevertheless It has been my largest investment in my share investment portfolios all these years until lately. I made fair amount of money trading it partially to make up for Zero dividend in the last 9 years due to it price volatilities but I also absorbed missed opportunities costs for not investing in other " better" stocks all these years. I am wondering if time is running out for me with this love and hated stock while I tried investing in other stocks for the last 2-3 years but the lingering itch with Armada is still there ; perhaps waiting for its price to drop further to reach good reward/ risks ratio once again. I am struggling with this mixed love/hate sentiments with Armada as sometimes I wonder if Armada is a speculative or investment grade stock for me. I guess it all depends on our stock entry price .

5 days ago

Balian de Ibelin

This thing may be taken private at below 20 sen 😁👍

5 days ago

696988

That is normal for current oil stock, dayxng from 2.8 to 2.230, Perdxna from 0.5 to 0.33, velxsto 0.28 to 0.205, now is just depend which stock is undervalue and have the potential to going up.

5 days ago

Balian de Ibelin

oil companies during recession gets very ugly.
many offshore oilfields will be abandoned.

Exxon already sold off a lot of offshore to go onshore due to global warming smashing most offshore assets to pieces of flotsam and jetsam. 😁👍

5 days ago

Balian de Ibelin

UK => 2030 fusion reactor completed
US => early 2030s fusion reactor completed
China => 2035 fusion reactor completed.

crude oil prices today reflect all available news

5 days ago

696988

The Chinese government has set a goal of building the first industrial prototype fusion reactor, which it has dubbed an “artificial sun,” by 2035, with officials hoping to begin large-scale commercial production of fusion energy by 2050. Nuclear fusion has become a national priority for China. They set a goal 2035, large scale is 2050. This is January 2024 news.

Oil price fall from 86 to 69 start from July not January, oil price drop because of economic data from China, Opec supply problem and economic worries. Now oil price going up from 69 to 75 because of US cut their interest rate.

5 days ago

Gabriel Khoo

https://www.upstreamonline.com/field-development/petronas-tempts-fpso-players-with-new-malaysia-offshore-opportunity/2-1-1714598

5 days ago

spencer628

khoo , do you have the full story to share ? who are going to bit that project ? thanks

4 days ago

nikicheong

Spencer the article claims Bumi Armada will be bidding. But these articles have been claiming the same rather frequently for the past decade with nary a win (except Armada Sterling V win in 2019).

4 days ago

spencer628

thanks niki 😃

4 days ago

nikicheong

Good lord, what will it take for some positive news from the company.

9 hours ago