1pingpong

adddddddddddddddddddddddddddd

2 weeks ago

1pingpong

that day after it break over 55cents, its the signal to enter big then.

2 weeks ago

Nepo

If can overcome 0.63, i.e 52 weeks high, then it is considered as BREAK OUT.

2 weeks ago

XXXvalue

IBs suppressing price. Trading volume within their means.

2 weeks ago

Robert Waters

Yes. I heard that one before. Operator keeps price low to achieve some type of financial target for transaction in the future. I tried to suppress a penny stock (PN17) once, but it ended badly for me. Break through and an opportunity loss by selling too low.

2 weeks ago

1pingpong

you learn a lot from 6 digits cut loss in one trade....

2 weeks ago

Robert Waters

Yes you do. And it was similar transaction value, but no loss, only breaking even. And my mistake was trying to block it on a few levels. It is like trying to stop the flood of the ocean at the beach using a bucket and a sandcastle. Buying wave goes through and continues. So is was happening with Armada. I saw 8 million offer (sell) at 60 sens yesterday, with only 0.5 buy at 59.5 sens. A few hour later 8 million was gone and price was 61. Next day it is 63.5. Momentum suggest that this too will be taken.

2 weeks ago

1pingpong

its also an obvious indicater at 0.595. When the volume hit extremely high to push pass the selling que...then only 0.60 appeared. This suggest a further TP than previous round. There are several significant indicator this round.

2 weeks ago

Robert Waters

I sold some at 59.5 of Armada, because sometimes those even numbers, like 0.6 take longer to cross. I take almost the same money from sale, and it occurs easily. I think the best similar example is bitcoin at 100k. Breaking through seems difficult. No problem to sell at 98k.
Obviously, I underestimated buying momentum for Armada. Even though there are no big bid, people just buy and new levels are reached. My next selling will be around 70 - using IB guideline targets.

2 weeks ago

MarketNavigator

Oil prices are dropping ... I wait below 60 sen and hentam

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/736972

1 week ago

TimCoke

lets see and wait

1 week ago

1pingpong

buy and forget.

1 week ago

1pingpong

Syrian crisis. Oil will up

1 week ago

TimCoke

wait for <0.6, no good news is bad news

1 week ago

1pingpong

if go below 60 cents, add another lorry in

1 week ago

1pingpong

operator fishing for bilis today

1 week ago

Robert Waters

What does it even mean ? Operator buying or selling, pingpong ?
Thanks for insight anyway.

1 week ago

MarketNavigator

1pingpong obviously wanted to buy it at cheaper price again

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1pingpong

if go below 60 cents, add another lorry in

2 days ago

1 week ago

1pingpong

now is recess hour..lunch time....take a break. before another push. After you climb the stairs to 10th floor, you need to take a rest before continue climbing....

1 week ago

Gabriel Khoo

https://www.sinchew.com.my/?p=6148147

Translate accrodingly

1 week ago

TimCoke

Breakthrough very soon!

5 days ago

shocklim

Huge block at 64.5 sen

5 days ago

nikicheong

In the AGM back in May 2024, the CFO alluded to the fact that cash was consciously being conserved to undertake an upcoming project. In Sep 2024, they fully repaid the RM1.5bil sukuk by taking out another matching loan, instead of utilizing some of the cash pile to reduce the refinanced loan.

It is either:
1. They really don't know what they're doing and have missed an opportunity to use the cash to reduce the interest expense. As it is, the new loan carries an interest rate of around 9.0%, compared to 6.35% for the previous Sukuk.

2. There is a project around the corner requiring significant outlay. It can't be the Bluestreak FCSIU, as the FID will only happen in the 2026-2027 period at the very earliest. It also can't be the Akia PSC exploration, as that too will only happen in the 2026-2027 period at the very earliest. So that leaves us with some possibilities on an imminent contract win:

a. Sarawak Shell FCSIU
b. Enquest Sullum Voe Terminal FSU/FSRU
c. Madura FLNG
d. Unknown FPSO project (least likely possibility as there are no known prospects at the moment)

3. There was something on the cards at the time of the AGM, but it's since been deferred or scrapped or awarded to another company.

5 days ago

ocbc

M&A price must be >$0.98

5 days ago

Sovereign

nikicheong, the fact that they are conserving cash is obvious. It is everyone's case what it is for but I assume they know what they are doing. It is a competent management team having brought the company from the brink at one time when it was under heavy debt loads. It has been reported that FPSO market was tight and while Yinson are able to win one project after another with debt profile not as good as BAB when BAB was not winning any bids or submitting bids, I am confident that the cash is for something significant either for upcoming projects or with an eye for the merger matrics with MISC.

4 days ago

nikicheong

@Sovereign, there is definitely some question marks on competency. They have stemmed the bleeding, mainly by selling off the OSVs and stabilising the operations at Kraken (which nevertheless still resulted in the blown transformers last year). There is no magic wand being waved beyond that.

Since 2015, the only notable contract win is the Armada Sterling V.

They have spent hundreds of million MYR on conducting all kinds of studies relating to "green" technology since 2020, with nothing to show for it yet.

They have 2 expensive vessels laying idle for over 5 years in the Caspian Sea, with a short campaign for hire in 2022.

The FPSO market has been red hot for the past 3 years, where has Bumi Armada been? One after another, they lost on promising prospects - chief of which was Agogo and Cameia in Angola. They were very certain to land either one, eventually they got nothing.

The debt situation was brought down to acceptable levels by mid to end 2022, so that's not the excuse for missing out on these projects.

To make matters worse, the Bumi Armada management lacks transparency as I have shown in the past, where material information is withheld from the public.

So yes, I would assume there is a good reason to conserve and grow the cash pile. But I am not certain they know what they're going to use it for.

Sometimes, I feel like Bumi Armada should close down its corporate and sales offices, and just focus on operating their existing assets and maximising shareholder returns. The terminal value after factoring in all the cost savings would be around RM0.90 to RM1.00 per share.

4 days ago

Gabriel Khoo

CGS has projected losses for yinson in fy2026

4 days ago

Gabriel Khoo

Unexpected core net loss of RM16m in 3QFY25 (Aug-Oct 2024) Yinson unexpectedly reported a 3QFY25 core net loss of RM16m (vs. 2QFY25’s core net profit of RM133m), which was below expectations due to EPCIC loss and higher corporate overheads. Yinson booked in an EPCIC operating loss of RM62m in 3QFY25 against an EPCIC operating profit of RM373m in 2QFY25 as 1) Yinson’s three construction projects already reached a high percentage of completion, leading to lower EPCIC revenue and profit recognition; 2) Yinson incurred full operating costs for the FPSO Maria Quiteria in the run-up to first oil on 15 Oct 2024; and 3) first oil for the FPSO Atlanta was delayed from the original target date of Sep 2024 due to the strike at IBAMA (Brazil’s environmental agency) in Jun-Aug 2024, causing Yinson to incur full operating costs without being able to book in any revenues. Meanwhile, Yinson’s corporate overheads rose from RM67m in 1QFY25 to RM89m in 2QFY25 and further to RM102m in 3QFY25 as it continued to invest and spend on capacity building and on various growth projects for the future. The 3QFY25 core net loss would have been much wider if not for Yinson booking in RM314m in “finance lease receivable (FLR) remeasurement gain”. Yinson reported a 3QFY25 net profit of RM200m, mainly because of RM181m in exceptional gains (details on page 3). Heavy interest expense burden may result in FY26F core net loss We expect Yinson to deliver a small core net profit in 4QFY25F of RM7m as the EPCIC loss for the FPSO Atlanta will likely continue into the quarter given that Yinson only expects it to achieve first oil in late-Dec 2024F. With the FPSO Agogo already 80% completed as at 31 Oct 2024 (sail-away from the yard targeted for Feb-Mar 2025F), we also do not expect significant EPCIC contributions from the vessel in 4QFY25F or in FY26F. We have relooked our forecasts for FY26F, which we now cut to a core net loss of RM262m vs. a core net profit of RM217m previously. Although we forecast Yinson to report RM2.3bn in FPSO charter-hire operating profit in FY25F (vs. RM2bn in FY24F including RM314m in FLR remeasurement gains), we also expect Yinson to incur RM0.4bn in corporate overheads and RM1.8bn in interest expense in FY26F (up from RM1.7bn in FY25F), which will consume most of next year’s group operating profit, with another RM0.3bn of taxes and RM0.2bn of minority interest to be deducted in order to arrive at the bottomline. Given the earnings trajectory for FY26F, we expect Yinson’s share price upside to be more limited than our previous expectation; hence we reduce our TP to RM3.09, although we retain our Add call for the potential rerating catalyst of the c.US$1bn fund raising exercise in earlyJan 2025F. Downside risks include delays in first oil target of late-Dec 2024F for the FPSO Atlanta and delays in execution of the FPSO Agogo project.

4 days ago

Gabriel Khoo

Reducing our target price ■ 9MFY1/25 core net profit made up only 46% of our full-year forecast due to EPCIC losses, higher overheads, and higher interest expense in 3QFY25. ■ We retain Add but with a modest 15% upside to our SOP-based end-CY25F TP of RM3.09, reduced from RM3.61 on faster-than-expected cash burn rate. ■ The key rerating catalyst is our expectation that Yinson will announce a c.US$1bn cash-raising exercise in early-Jan 2025F to fund its growth plans.

4 days ago

Sovereign

nikicheong, points taken. As we muse about what could have been for BAB, the share is stirring.

4 days ago

Sovereign

What it takes is a project or two getting into trouble for Yinson to be on a tailspin like during the dark days of BAB when Armada Claire contract was terminated and initial poor performance of Armada Kraken.

4 days ago

nikicheong

By the way, the Nigerian market is heating up once again. For many years there was a pause due to policy uncertainty. Way back in 2017-2018 era, Bumi Armada was the frontrunner for the Eni ZabaZaba FPSO. However the project was never sanctioned. If revisited, Bumi Armada might be interested. As they would in other Nigerian FPSO opportunities.

4 days ago

ITreeinvestor

We favour: i) defensive midstream companies – with Dialog as our pick; and
ii) FPSO players which are poised to ride on the global deep and ultradeepwater capex investments – with Bumi Armada as our pick.

4 days ago

nikicheong

Which investment bank is this from?

3 days ago

Gabriel Khoo

https://www.offshore-energy.biz/oeec-ccs-will-employ-as-many-people-as-oil-gas-at-its-peak/

3 days ago

ITreeinvestor

Niki, it's from Maybank

3 days ago

TimCoke

aiks~

3 days ago

Robert Waters

Like in the card game, I call BS on that carbon capture employment reaching Oil and Gas. And the need for regulation and government support reveals the truth ...

I say wind is the best carbon capture. It moves carbon east -west. Makes as much sense as move it up and down, from surface to underground.

3 days ago

abcb

Something is brewing up for ARMADA

2 days ago

abcb

Try to challenge 0.70 to 0.80 within a few days

2 days ago

TimCoke

Collect more!

2 days ago

ocbc

M&A price must be >$0.98

2 days ago

Robert Waters

That I agree. Many times too many I sold counters that were going up senselessly and against all logic. Soon after, there was an anouncement. New contract, winning law suit or similar. In Armada case most likely positive is that the statue of limitation has run out. Or judge decided that they will not be tried as an adult and go to minor court. Or their officer in Malaysia Anti Corruption Committee resigned.
:-)

2 days ago

vespa

@Robert Waters lol

2 days ago

TimCoke

M&A $ < 0.6

2 days ago

vespa

TimCoke … any basis to your comment ?

2 days ago

696988

M&A below 0.6?
For current situation ( NTA 0.96, CEO holding ticket, company earning money ) why have to discount 30%?
Another point of view, Tycoon's investment team and CEO of the company will the ticket to be so cheap? If not mistaken their job is trying maximize company profit.

https://www.sinchew.com.my/news/20241209/%E6%98%9F%E6%B4%B2%E4%BA%BA/6131133
If the news valuation is correct which is 4.6billion, then can apply for a simple calculation
( 4,600.00/share 5,927.88) = 0.775

No buy sell call

If you have any latest M&A news please update, because i also want to know M&A price tqvm.

1 day ago

vespa

This is about a month old and am not sure if posted earlier by others but here goes.
Gain For MISC With Bumi Armada Synergy
By Editor -November 16, 2024

News broke in Jul 2024 that MISC may take a substantial stake in Bumi Armada Berhad, obliquely implying that Objektif Bersatu Sdn Bhd (OBSB, ultimately owned by tycoon Ananda Krishan) that holds a 34.6% stake in BAB could be looking to exit the company.

MISC’s share price subsequently corrected 16% from RM8.90 on 3 Jul 2024 to a recent low of RM7.46 on 25 Oct 2024, as shareholders feared the implications of MISC possibly having to expend a lot of its cash on a mandatory general offer (MGO). We think that this worst-case scenario is now unlikely to be true, as MISC and BAB announced to Bursa on 14 Nov 2024 that both parties have signed an MOU and will over the next nine months explore a merger of MISC’s Offshore Business Unit (OBU) with BAB in an all-share transaction. CGS Investment Bank theorises that MISC may inject its OBU into BAB in exchange for new BAB shares. The house’s target price for BAB implies a RM4.7bn valuation (in contrast to its market cap of RM3bn), while it also values MISC’s offshore business at RM15bn.

Combining the two entities at these valuations, MISC will end up with a 76% stake in the merged entity (‘ME’), while OBSB’s stake in ME may be diluted to 8.3%. MISC may be obliged to execute an MGO for BAB, according to the Malaysian Code on Take-Overs and Mergers 2016, but if OBSB publicly announces that it does not intend to accept the MGO, there is a chance that MISC may not cross the compulsory acquisition threshold of 90%, which fits in well with the stated intention of both MISC and BAB to keep ME listed.

As such, assuming the merger is completed, CGS expects MISC to place out shares in ME to ensure adequate free float. A 10% placement by MISC may raise RM1.97bn for MISC (assuming a valuation of RM19.7bn for ME), equivalent to 22% of the RM9.1bn that MISC had spent on building the FPSO Mero-3. In this way, CGS believes that MISC can indirectly achieve its goal of paring down its stake in Mero-3, since its efforts to find trade buyers for the Mero-3 have so far not been successful, according to the company.

Operating synergies and prospects for MISC’s growth
MISC may experience a relief rally, since an all-shares transaction will help preserve MISC’s cash balances. The house thinks that a merger of two mid-sized FPSO companies can also help pool engineering resources, with cost synergies, while MISC can gain exposure to BAB’s growth initiatives, including the Bluestreak carbon capture and storage (CCS) project in the UK, and the potential to monetise gas via a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) solution in Indonesia. The house reiterates Add on these potential rerating catalysts.

EGMs will need to be convened at both companies, giving minority shareholders a chance to analyse closely and vote accordingly. The key downside risks are if the valuation for MISC’s OBU is lower than expected, or if BAB’s valuation is higher than expected.

1 day ago

vespa

https://www.businesstoday.com.my/2024/11/16/gain-for-misc-with-bumi-armada-synergy/

1 day ago

sheldon

TQ vespa.
The last sentence was from MISC's perspective hence opposite for BAB.

9 hours ago