WahLau Math

Linear Line VS KLCI

Wah Lau
Publish date: Thu, 22 Oct 2015, 01:08 AM
Wah Lau
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I like math, I try to link math with stock and futures market.
Following Message
I start my blog with linear line, one of simple formula to drawing a line. We only need 2 points to draw linear 
 
line. We try to use linear line to help us to get the average upper limit and average lower limit. Let us 
 
take KLCI as example: 
  
Year Actual KLCI Result
Dec 1st working day		 % Status
1979 149.51    
1980 227.02 51.8%  
1981 268.24 18.2%  
1982 251.58 -6.2% Low
1983 335.77 33.5% Up
1984 265.61 -20.9%  
1985 213.13 -19.8% Low
1986 239.05 12.2%  
1987 261.19 9.3%  
1988 357.38 36.8%  
1989 562.28 57.3% Up
1990 505.92 -10.0% Low
1991 556.22 9.9%  
1992 643.96 15.8%  
1993 1275.32 98.0% Up
1994 971.21 -23.8% Low
1995 995.17 2.5%  
1996 1237.5 24.4% Up
1997 594.44 -52.0%  
1998 586.13 -1.4% Low
1999 812.33 38.6% Up
2000 679.64 -16.3%  
2001 696.09 2.4%  
2002 646.32 -7.1% Low
2003 793.94 22.8%  
2004 907.43 14.3%  
2005 899.79 -0.8%  
2006 1096.24 21.8%  
2007 1445.03 31.8% Up
2008 876.75 -39.3% Low
2009 1272.78 45.2%  
2010 1519.91 19.4%  
2011 1530.73 0.7%  
2012 1688.95 10.3%  
2013 1866.96 10.5% Up
2014 1761.25 -5.7%  
 
1.) Let say (1979, 149.51) as point (X1,Y1). 
   
2.) We consider 1983, 1989, 1993, 1996, 1999, 2007 and 2015 as upper limit. (We skip 1981,2004)
 
3.) We generate the line (1979,149.51) with (1983,335.77), (1979,149.51) with (1993,1275.32)…. 
 
until (1979,149.51) with (1983,335.77). By using two point form Y-Y1=[(Y2-Y1)*(X-X1)/(X2-X1)]
Refer:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_equation
 
4.) Those upper limit lines as below:
5.) We take average for those upper line:
6.) We take 1982, 1985, 1990, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2008 as lower limit. And use step 3.) and 4.). 
 
We get lower average.
7.) We combine both lower and upper limit.
Base on this chart, <1200 (less than lower limit) is good trade for 2015 and 2016 and >2000 is near upper limit.
 
*Just sharing as study case and take your own risk to use it in your investment.
 
If you want more data about this, check it:
        Upper Limit Lower Limit
Year Actual KLCI Result
Dec 1st working day		 % Status Foracast
1983		 Foracast
1989		 Forecast
1993		 Forecast
1996		 Forecast
1999		 Forecast
2007		 Forecast
2013		 Upper
Avg.		 Forecast
1982		 Forecast
1985		 Forecast
1990		 Forecast
1994		 Forecast 1998 Forecast 2002 Forecast 2008 Lower
Avg.
1979 149.51     149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51 149.51
1980 227.02 51.8%   196.075 190.787 229.925 213.51 182.65 195.78 200.02 201.25 183.53 159.95 181.91 204.29 172.49 171.1104 174.5872 178.27
1981 268.24 18.2%   242.64 232.064 310.34 277.51 215.79 242.05 250.54 252.99 217.56 170.38 214.31 259.07 195.47 192.7109 199.6645 207.02
1982 251.58 -6.2% Low 289.205 273.341 390.755 341.51 248.93 288.32 301.05 304.73 251.58 180.82 246.71 313.85 218.45 214.3113 224.7417 235.78
1983 335.77 33.5% Up 335.77 314.618 471.17 405.51 282.07 334.58 351.56 356.47 285.60 191.26 279.11 368.63 241.43 235.9117 249.819 264.54
1984 265.61 -20.9%   382.335 355.895 551.585 469.51 315.22 380.85 402.08 408.21 319.63 201.69 311.51 423.41 264.41 257.5122 274.8962 293.29
1985 213.13 -19.8% Low 428.9 397.172 632 533.51 348.36 427.12 452.59 459.95 353.65 212.13 343.92 478.19 287.39 279.1126 299.9734 322.05
1986 239.05 12.2%   475.465 438.449 712.415 597.51 381.50 473.39 503.10 511.69 387.67 222.57 376.32 532.97 310.37 300.713 325.0507 350.81
1987 261.19 9.3%   522.03 479.726 792.83 661.51 414.64 519.66 553.62 563.43 421.70 233.00 408.72 587.75 333.35 322.3135 350.1279 379.57
1988 357.38 36.8%   568.595 521.003 873.245 725.50 447.78 565.93 604.13 615.17 455.72 243.44 441.12 642.53 356.33 343.9139 375.2052 408.32
1989 562.28 57.3% Up 615.16 562.28 953.66 789.50 480.92 612.20 654.64 666.91 489.74 253.88 473.52 697.31 379.31 365.5143 400.2824 437.08
1990 505.92 -10.0% Low 661.725 603.557 1034.075 853.50 514.06 658.46 705.16 718.65 523.77 264.31 505.92 752.09 402.29 387.1148 425.3597 465.84
1991 556.22 9.9%   708.29 644.834 1114.49 917.50 547.20 704.73 755.67 770.39 557.79 274.75 538.32 806.87 425.27 408.7152 450.4369 494.59
1992 643.96 15.8%   754.855 686.111 1194.905 981.50 580.34 751.00 806.18 822.13 591.81 285.19 570.72 861.65 448.25 430.3157 475.5141 523.35
1993 1275.32 98.0% Up 801.42 727.388 1275.32 1045.50 613.48 797.27 856.70 873.87 625.84 295.62 603.12 916.43 471.23 451.9161 500.5914 552.11
1994 971.21 -23.8% Low 847.985 768.665 1355.735 1109.50 646.63 843.54 907.21 925.61 659.86 306.06 635.52 971.21 494.21 473.5165 525.6686 580.86
1995 995.17 2.5%   894.55 809.942 1436.15 1173.50 679.77 889.81 957.72 977.35 693.88 316.50 667.92 1025.99 517.19 495.117 550.7459 609.62
1996 1237.5 24.4% Up 941.115 851.219 1516.565 1237.50 712.91 936.08 1008.24 1029.09 727.91 326.93 700.33 1080.77 540.17 516.7174 575.8231 638.38
1997 594.44 -52.0%   987.68 892.496 1596.98 1301.50 746.05 982.34 1058.75 1080.83 761.93 337.37 732.73 1135.55 563.15 538.3178 600.9003 667.13
1998 586.13 -1.4% Low 1034.245 933.773 1677.395 1365.50 779.19 1028.61 1109.26 1132.57 795.95 347.81 765.13 1190.33 586.13 559.9183 625.9776 695.89
1999 812.33 38.6% Up 1080.81 975.05 1757.81 1429.50 812.33 1074.88 1159.77 1184.31 829.98 358.24 797.53 1245.11 609.11 581.5187 651.0548 724.65
2000 679.64 -16.3%   1127.375 1016.327 1838.225 1493.50 845.47 1121.15 1210.29 1236.05 864.00 368.68 829.93 1299.89 632.09 603.1191 676.1321 753.41
2001 696.09 2.4%   1173.94 1057.604 1918.64 1557.50 878.61 1167.42 1260.80 1287.79 898.02 379.12 862.33 1354.67 655.07 624.7196 701.2093 782.16
2002 646.32 -7.1% Low 1220.505 1098.881 1999.055 1621.50 911.75 1213.69 1311.31 1339.53 932.05 389.55 894.73 1409.45 678.05 646.32 726.2866 810.92
2003 793.94 22.8%   1267.07 1140.158 2079.47 1685.50 944.89 1259.96 1361.83 1391.27 966.07 399.99 927.13 1464.23 701.03 667.9204 751.3638 839.68
2004 907.43 14.3%   1313.635 1181.435 2159.885 1749.50 978.04 1306.22 1412.34 1443.01 1000.09 410.43 959.53 1519.01 724.01 689.5209 776.441 868.43
2005 899.79 -0.8%   1360.2 1222.712 2240.3 1813.49 1011.18 1352.49 1462.85 1494.75 1034.12 420.86 991.93 1573.79 746.99 711.1213 801.5183 897.19
2006 1096.24 21.8%   1406.765 1263.989 2320.715 1877.49 1044.32 1398.76 1513.37 1546.49 1068.14 431.30 1024.33 1628.57 769.97 732.7217 826.5955 925.95
2007 1445.03 31.8% Up 1453.33 1305.266 2401.13 1941.49 1077.46 1445.03 1563.88 1598.23 1102.16 441.74 1056.74 1683.35 792.95 754.3222 851.6728 954.70
2008 876.75 -39.3% Low 1499.895 1346.543 2481.545 2005.49 1110.60 1491.30 1614.39 1649.97 1136.19 452.17 1089.14 1738.13 815.93 775.9226 876.75 983.46
2009 1272.78 45.2%   1546.46 1387.82 2561.96 2069.49 1143.74 1537.57 1664.91 1701.71 1170.21 462.61 1121.54 1792.91 838.91 797.523 901.8272 1012.22
2010 1519.91 19.4%   1593.025 1429.097 2642.375 2133.49 1176.88 1583.84 1715.42 1753.45 1204.23 473.05 1153.94 1847.69 861.89 819.1235 926.9045 1040.98
2011 1530.73 0.7%   1639.59 1470.374 2722.79 2197.49 1210.02 1630.10 1765.93 1805.19 1238.26 483.48 1186.34 1902.47 884.87 840.7239 951.9817 1069.73
2012 1688.95 10.3%   1686.155 1511.651 2803.205 2261.49 1243.16 1676.37 1816.45 1856.93 1272.28 493.92 1218.74 1957.25 907.85 862.3243 977.059 1098.49
2013 1866.96 10.5% Up 1732.72 1552.928 2883.62 2325.49 1276.30 1722.64 1866.96 1908.67 1306.30 504.36 1251.14 2012.03 930.83 883.9248 1002.136 1127.25
2014 1761.25 -5.7%   1779.285 1594.205 2964.035 2389.49 1309.45 1768.91 1917.47 1960.41 1340.33 514.79 1283.54 2066.81 953.81 905.5252 1027.213 1156.00
2015       1825.85 1635.482 3044.45 2453.49 1342.59 1815.18 1967.99 2012.15 1374.35 525.23 1315.94 2121.59 976.79 927.1257 1052.291 1184.76
2016       1872.415 1676.759 3124.865 2517.49 1375.73 1861.45 2018.50 2063.89 1408.37 535.67 1348.34 2176.37 999.77 948.7261 1077.368 1213.52
 
 
More articles on WahLau Math
Linear Line VS KLCI Ver.2

Created by Wah Lau | Oct 24, 2015

Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 5 of 5 comments

sjwee3

什么代誌！

2015-10-22 08:02

tobaco

...........

2015-10-22 08:44

kchia

so complicated....

2015-10-22 08:50

paper

good model to anticipate the floor and the ceiling.

2015-10-22 09:41

kingcobra

wahlao heh!

2015-10-22 15:35

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