Oil prices fell 68% from this year’s peak to the lowest level since 2002 - below USD23/bbl as demand appeared to have been hit by work and travel lockdowns globally as part of efforts to contain the spread of Covid-19. It was exacerbated further by a price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia after its 3-year alliance fell through over Saudi’s calls for greater production cuts to support prices. After reaching a low last week, oil prices have rebounded by 46% however on the prospect of a win-win deal between the world’s three top producing countries. While there may be hope for the supply crisis to be resolved, we foresee worries over the Covid-19 global pandemic remaining as the recovery period may take longer than expected, leading to an unprecedented demand loss as lockdown period are extended. While we maintain our Neutral stance on the sector, we trimmed earnings forecast of various companies as we note that the 28-day movement control order (MCO) has reduced their efficiency levels despite no revision on work order quantum by oil majors thus far. We also re-visiting our valuation parameters to better reflect the current operating climate.
Source: PublicInvest Research - 8 Apr 2020
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UZMAPetronas - reassessing its plans and budget. While there is no sign of lower work order by oil majors thus far, it is understood that Petronas is still assessing its plans and budget in light of the price plunge. Based on our channel checks with some industry players, discussions are currently on going with the main focus including the assessment on the sector and areas to cut. That said, we are not surprised with its plans to continue its domestic capex of RM26bn to RM28bn despite the lower oil price, going by the 2016 and 2017 period (relatively similar price conditions) where it cut overseas capex by 66.1% and 25% while increasing the domestic portion by more than 80% for two consecutive years. It also intends to maintain its dividend payment of RM24bn to the Government for FY19. Nevertheless, if the low oil price environment prolongs, Petronas may need to preserve some cash for future investments while also preparing for potential requests from the Government (special dividends) in the current challenging economic climate. With expectation of lower overseas allocation in order to spur the domestic economy, areas of work that might be affected (either defer or revision on the rate) will include the capex-heavy jobs like greenfield projects and FPSO, exploration and development services such as EPCC, drilling and OSV.
Maintenance jobs will likely be continued with minimal rate adjustments.
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2020-04-08 09:53
Petronas to maintain oil and gas production despite measures to contain Covid-19
https://www.upstreamonline.com/safety/petronas-to-maintain-oil-and-gas-production-despite-measures-to-contain-covid-19/2-1-776040
“Therefore, all operations falling within the above essential services including all SUPPORT SERVICES,
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should continue,” Petronas said in a statement.
Petronas issued the statement following the 18 to 31 March movement control order announced Monday by Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, which includes the closure of all non-essential business and services.
2020-04-08 09:55
oil price will definitely go up.....
why? They can do nothing to change on the demand side....
but they can stop fighting for market share by reducing price without any gain in supply side...., i,e they cannot increase supply more than demand which is fixed.
the price drop is lose lose situation for all 3 parties...where at the end the sum of their supply remains the same but selling at a cheap price
they will be smart enough to cooperate with each to rise for a win win situation for all
2020-04-08 10:07
laychee
疫苗+特药 是这次灾难的解药。
还有。。。准备下一次的新 蝙蝠病毒。
2020-04-08 09:52