Qiii Ramblings
KLCI Reverse Head & Shoulder Breakout - Truth or Dare
Barely 4 days after the S&P 500 made new highs, KLCI looks likely to follow suit with a convincing breakout today (23 Oct 2013) from the minor downtrend that started at the end July 2013. From the charts, we can see a strong candle crossing over the neckline of an inverted head & shoulder chart pattern today. It seems that the stars are aligned now for the index to retest 1826, the all time high reached after GE13. MACD, RSI and Stochastics are all positive with the index trading well above SMA20 hugging the upper Bollinger band like a darling.
What an impeccable timing it is this time round.
- Global equity market sentiments are positive.
- US Quantitative Easing (QE) program taper [foreign funds] looks likely to be delayed til early 2014
- Our economy and those of major trade partners are looking up (China, Singapore, EU, US)
We are 2 days away from major announcements in our fiscal policy, The Budget 2014. They better not screw this up.
1814 too high?
A break above 1826 is in the cards?
Truth or dare?
Feel free to comment.
Happy investing / trading.
--- Qiii ---
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2 people like this. Showing 50 of 70 comments
@Zenwan: I understand that the question is for OTB but just being a busy body, I'd go O&G.
2013-10-23 22:49
Qiii, that's the sector everyone is talking about...too predictable for me....but thanks
2013-10-23 22:51
market turun naik..OTB jugak yang untung..haha ada side income tu
---
OTB u kan dah kaya..tak payahlah charge...just give us some free info..haha
2013-10-23 22:53
Nice try anbz.....what say u OTB....if anyone blame you,...Anbz & I will bite their head off....
2013-10-23 22:56
I hope anbz got teeth like vampire.....he seems to suck hard..hehehe....I like this brother.....
2013-10-23 22:59
hi twobits, may I know where did u get the info pertaining to the fund movement? Can u share the link? Thanx
2013-10-24 08:10
@twobits: Thanks for sharing. Volume is actually higher than the average day and within the upper range of daily historical volume so far. We will see if this breakout is real on Friday / Monday.
2013-10-24 08:44
my portfolio is now almost 70% in stocks, hope that there will be super bull run in 2014 as predicted
2013-10-24 08:58
That's true. I think profit taking is expected. Question is whether quality support can sustain the bull. Maybe this is a special note to contra players to be extra cautious.
2013-10-24 09:10
it's common to have "window dressing" b4 budget, ride on this and get all u can. "quality support", v will c next week.
btw, next month more qtr reports will release. by now, took nearly all profits off the table already ;)
2013-10-24 09:29
angin tiup first to come tenaga, experience bird like u knows the Cx game, right? :D :D
2013-10-24 09:48
Well Tenaga started yesterday with punters looking at possible tariff hike but I am more interested for any hidden gems in earnings reports for e.g. 100% increase in profit y-o-y etc. Satu kali, finance minister kata tak perlu tariff hike untuk kepentingan rakyat, jatuh menjunam.
2013-10-24 10:01
trend started since 23/8 to be precise. tak perlu tariff hike means tenaga is doing well, u believe tu "kepentingan rakyat"?
2013-10-24 10:18
@twobits: Actually the sentiments in the US and as confirmed by some recent indications (between the lines) by some Fed state governors is that it is unlikely that they will taper this year. This is of course due to the fiscal issues the US government is facing, impact of gov shutdown on economy and unemployment in Oct. It looks likely that they will only rethink this after the US government has some concrete agreement in Jan 2013. We will see.
Regarding the chart pattern, it is just a pattern. As long as index stays above 1809, we are talking business. Today looks promising. I can't comment on foreign funds. MYR is strengthening, US equity market outperforms emerging markets and maybe they are just waiting on the sidelines for some clear signals on the Budget.
2013-10-24 11:24
in week of oct'18, there's outflow of USD94m.
note U.S budget/debt issues r not over but postpone to next year Jan-Feb. in that sense, probability of tapering will be low. in view of midterm election, no one wants to be blamed for screwing up economy stability. overall U.S economy shows slow and steady recovery, so is EU.
2013-10-24 11:24
agreed with u they r probably juz like us, cash out waiting at the sideline for clear signal on the budget; which said by wahid to address fitch rating.
2013-10-24 11:30
qiii is slightly on bull, iafx & 2bits r slightly on bear (correction actually, NOT crash or anything like that) at this point of time.
noise is good, if no noise market cannot move, everyone calculated with same formula gets the same value; looking at each other doing nothing? :D :D :D
2013-10-24 11:47
All & all, it is a healthy discussion. Good to be cautious although I am leaning on the index touching higher before correction kicks in and resume upward trend towards year end.
2013-10-24 11:50
it needs to clear n close abv the recent 1826 hi for momentum n vol to return..otherwise..will remain tentative n sidelined..as dow/s&p r trdg at the highs..
2013-10-24 11:56
totally agreed with jtfx on the technical part, ESPECIALLY the vol... good post!
2013-10-24 12:02
post budget, if everything is aligned positively, n dow/S&P making new highs, then we will hv the real SHS blast off..i am hanging on my longs for that..good luck to all...cheers
2013-10-24 12:08
@twobits: First of all, I just had a glance at UEMS so pls take with a pinch of salt. UEMS is in the property sector. Frankly I am not bullish on this sector until policy decisions on stamp duty, RPGT, PR1MA are clearer. On the earnings front, they seem to be doing pretty. I recalled reading earlier about potential penalty for delay in KLIA2 construction and some suit by Bank Kerjasama Rakyat on a Bangunan Angkasaraya deal sold by Deepak to Sunrise earlier. On the plus side, EPF seems to be accumulating shares so that's probably the boost it needs.
2013-10-24 12:15
With a close above 1818 today, the break out is confirmed. We are now looking at support between 1809 - 1811.
2013-10-24 18:51
Fitch view on the budget: *TENGOK DULU* http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/260268-fitch-important-to-monitor-the-implementation-and-execution-of-budget-measures-over-time.html
2013-10-25 18:14
KLCI was volatile today - taking a rest before the next move. It almost looked like a big contrarian play on the index today. Well the budget is quite positive apart from sentiments around GST.
We will see how the abolishment of sugar subsidy impact the consumer products sector. Reduction of personal tax and half month bonus of civil servants should boost the economy by a tiny bit. The policy on RPGT & DIBS should impact the developers for a couple of weeks before earning reports kick in. GST play will be the focus. HSBB2 may benefit some counters.
2013-10-25 20:48
Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Oct 25, 2013 09:15 PM | Report Abuse X
A loyal and good member will not run down the party. Only a traitor will do it.
Thank you.
Ans : I just cannot understand why anbz called me a racist because of my aforesaid posting.
To me, any political frog jumps party or any one who was not elected in an election, run down his party IRRESPECTIVE OF RACE, he is a traitor to the party. A good and loyal party member will not run down his party if he failed to be elected in any party election. I did not mention any race, I only quoted that person. Am I a racist ? Please judge yourself. I want to avoid get caught in this dispute.
Thank you.
Ooi
2013-10-26 14:05
Garang banyak suara garang,
Sampai terasa dalam berbisa;
Orang banyak perkara orang,
Berbagai bangsa bermacam bahasa.
Kera merebut cemara remuk,
Capai kedangsa kelat dan masam;
Negara disebut negara majmuk,
Berampai bangsa beradat resam.
Kayu cendana di tepi paya,
Di belah lima kapak berhulu;
Melayu Cina Punjabi India,
Telah bersama sejak dahulu.
Hujan banjir, kemarau parah,
Air melimpah di sungai jua;
Usahlah bicara kulit & sejarah,
Pandang ke depan, Bursa bersama.
Rangkap 1-3 Source:
http://mamasentimental.blogspot.com/2013/04/pantun-orang-kita.html)
Rangkap 4 Source:
Yours Truly
2013-10-26 15:18
Bro Qiii,that's a good one. We should stop fighting among ourselves. Life goes on,look forward and remember,when going gets tough, the tough gets going.
2013-10-26 15:59
KLCI has seen a good correction from 1800-1660 in july..( I have bought strongly into this selloff)..This corretion has shaken out the stale longs and set the stage for a much stronger and powerful rally to break the band of triple tops at 1805-1826. Global sentiment in the EU n US n china is now more positive..the KLCI will be very supported abv 1800..get ready for the Dec rally...
2013-10-27 23:48
Agree with twobits. Actually the market is already prepared for DIBS with Bank Negara's announcement a few months back. IMHO, PM is just adding more punch to it in case of compliance issues. As quoted by many developers commenting on the Budget, most foreigners are buying properties above RM 1mil anyway.
2013-10-28 09:53
@twobits: If you look at the Weekly CI chart, you will notice that closing prices are well supported at the 1790 level. Candle-wise, last 4 weeks have seen bearishness with a surprising bull spike on 19 Nov due to local institutions according to the media. If the bear continues, we will see support at 1784, 1775 and 1760 levels. Otherwise if year end bullish sentiment returns, we will witness a retest of 1801, 1809 followed by 1822. IMHO, taper talk is hurting the index & local institutions are not shooting.
2013-11-23 10:53
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2013-10-23 22:47