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【阿弟】巴菲特說股價合情,有根據嗎?

Adi_Investor
Publish date: Wed, 04 Oct 2017, 10:50 AM
我业余时,替《阿弟说投资》telegram GROUP的会员,做经济周期分析,以及投资趋势的建议、谘询、教育、理財等等。
投资以长期趋势为主,根据趋势的判断哪类资产该买,哪类该卖?再配合适当的交易策略。
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巴菲特說目前股價合情,有根據嗎?

 

巴菲特週二告訴 CNBC 說,以利率水準而言,美國股價應屬合情合理。 

 

(美國股市本益比用Shiller PE Ratio計算,是30.9倍)

 

他說,在股價中,利率是強而有力的因素。

 

沒錯!利率的確影響股價。

 

不過如果我在場,我會問巴菲特,你認為現在的利率合理嗎?

 

下圖是美國百多年的10年期國債利率走勢。

 

 

 

你認為現在利率是合理?還是過度高估?尤其對比美國當前債務的情況下......

 

如果利率本身就不合理,那股市當前價格,又怎麼會是合理呢?

Discussions
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fung9815

If the interest rate in the US was 2.3% 20 years ago, they might have seen 20% inflation back then; today they are having 2.3% interest rate but inflation is only 1.9%.

Not saying that inflation will not eventually go up, but we are living in a tech-driven low inflation era. Unless inflation rate shoots up substantially, we are going to continue seeing low interest rates (Fed's long-term target is 3%).

Tech-driven low inflation is a huge topic that is too big to summarise here. Even Buffett himself is surprised with the low inflation.

2017-10-04 17:48

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