bluefun的投资分享心得
Cut loss也是一种自我救赎 Self Redemption - bluefun
朋友们很晚的晚上好，好久不见，在街角的咖啡店，哈哈哈 
。 因特忙于 Financial Year End Closing 的关系，所以 bluefun 也已经好久没空闲的时间与广大的朋友们聊聊天，吹吹水，真的是不好意思呢。 不过， 不知到朋友们还记不记得“不烦先生”这一位“奇葩”的部落客呢 
话说今天， bluefun 想利用文字与朋友们分享下一个真实的案例，好让自己时时刻刻铭记于心，切勿在未来投资的道路上成为执迷不悟的“惯犯”，哈哈哈。
话说在去年的时候，因为受惠于美元的强势，又保持良好的盈利与派息政策，FY15Q4现金384m，短期债务139m ， 所以还蛮看好 JCY 这一家生产 HDD(Hard Disk Drive) 的公司。当时就以非常高的价码买进， 然而好景不长， 因为全球 HDD市场需求放缓与被其他高科技产品取代，HDD 的市场面临着艰难的考验，这也进一步影响了JCY的 revenue ，profit margin & net profit。
因 HDD市场犹如落日的余辉，JCY 公司的股价也随之而下滑，没有最低，只有更低。那时候的 bluefun 觉得这样长期持有下去也不是办法， 所以就搜集了资料，重新再研究HDD市场未来的发展。 然而，小弟却发现未来的HDD市场收缩是不争的事实，极大可能在10年后HDD就可能会在市场上消失无影踪。
所以当时 since threat > strength， bluefun 就狠下心做了一个“长痛不如短痛” 的决定，撤出于 JCY 全部的投资资金，亏了大概 20% T_T 。 不过，这也证明了 bluefun 小弟的决策是对的，因为在 FY16Q1 to FT16Q4，PBT 从 43.8m 到 -21.86m，真是 "惨不忍睹"。
感谢自己的短期失利成就了自己避免长期“住套房”的决策。 虽然 -20% 很心痛，但也算是一个“付学费” 学习的经历，算是值得的。 若是现在 bluefun 依然持有的话，我想 -50%的 discount 应该都有我的份。算一算其实我还赚了 10% (不卖 more -30%，卖 -20%) ，哈哈哈。 一个杯子，半杯水呀 XDD 没错是 -50%，这不是 mega cheap sales，而是一个 experience LOL
倾向长期投资的策略是没错，不过一旦公司的未来迈向末路山穷水路，基本面变质了则另当别论。 也许投资下一家未来保持稳定成长的公司才是上策呀。 
JCY 手上现金非常充足，但是管理层必须善用于收购那一些“成长中的公司”加以并购，或者也可以改变企业的方向，转向生产未来拥有更高需求的产品。 "Explore" & "Changes" 是必经过程，虽然刚开始很 tough， 一旦埋下了深刻的根基，未来的果实不一定丰厚，但却一定甜呀
从 JCY 的投资还没成功经历， bluefun 学会了有时候的 cut loss 是一种成长 growth必经的过程与自我救赎 self redemption。 对，非常对，承认错误并不可怕，最怕是错了还不“回头是岸”。感谢 cut loss 让我学会舍得舍得，不舍难得
股市里处处充满惊喜，人生的经历。
颜色虽然只有一线之差，却常考验着投资者们的耐心，信心，个人心态，决策等等，真的好有趣
Do not chase high when you are in high。
Sometimes cut loss is self redemption，sometimes
chase high like commit suicide
持之以恒，水到渠成
bluefun
07.01.2017
P/S: This cut loss article is just for sharing experience purpose, this is not buy call, sell call or last call. Any trade please on your own risk.
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Discussions
7 people like this. Showing 17 of 17 comments
Erm.. Agree with your point. Before that I also cut loss from few counters. Now my portfolio still have one counter which is Tek Seng making paper loss > 30%, but so far I still holding it because I think they still have potential in the future. Will wait and see next quarter result and see how.
2017-01-08 12:04
most ppl do not cut-loss because they cannot admit they are wrong.
My friend buy Reach 73sen last time, when it drop after QA to 60sen, she still didn't cut loss. Now Reach is back near her buying price, she still believe in no-cut-loss.
2017-01-08 14:10
All shout attnd Mr.Teh's e-meeting about cut loss.
After I attend the e meeting. I cut everything including my house water n electricity supply.
2017-01-08 16:34
In the very first place buying JCY and not knowing the slowdown thread for HDD exist since 5 years ago was already wrong. Bluefun is good blogger, it is sad to see hom make a mistake for not knowing what he is buying into in the very first place.
2017-01-08 18:00
since we are human, making mistake is not a big issue.
making a mistake and doesn't admit it is an issue. (refuse to cut loss)
when we make any mistake, realize it (cut loss) and let it be a lesson for us.
2017-01-08 21:14
Absolutely agreed, a lesson need to be paid off, a great experience lead us to a right path in future
Worth :)
2017-01-08 21:17
Thanks for sharing Bluefun...Everyone make mistake, key is don't repeat the same mistakes again! Please continue with all the great sharing.
2017-01-08 21:39
Luxchem is very attractive in term of FA, hopefully drop more for accumulating, kikiki :D
2017-01-09 18:20
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Bruce88
Yup, cut-loss is not easy but is necessary !
2017-01-08 10:32