My Trading Adventure

Technical rebound?

CP TEH
Publish date: Mon, 10 Sep 2012, 07:57 AM
CP TEH
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All the writings in this weblog are mainly for PLEASURE reading purposes. I am in NO position to recommend a call(BUY/SELL). Please check with those know-hows before you make a decision. Yes, I am just a learner, with only five years experiences in KLSE. So, please BEAR with me.
It has been a busy weekend for me ... and I did not blah-blah yesterday. I did not even attend the wealth-expo day 2 as I was too tired. Sunday is my rest day to be with family. And catching up with some readings ...

Last night I had an e-meeting with my e-tratles. Well, just showing them simple MA. We do not need to pay thousands to learn MA, ok? Anyone explain in details those MA lines well enough? What is the difference between SMA vs EMA? When do we use what ... and is bullish crossover really a buy? Which pair of MAs do we use to trade? How do we use MA to see trends and using it as support-resistance? Why? What? How?

For a newbies, even a simple MA(= moving averages) could be too much to handle in a session. There is no way a newbie to learn MA is a day or not even in a month!! I am talking about learning and using MA effectively for their trading. Can a trading course which offer a few days classes be effective to learn all those technical terms, all those technical indicators and strategies? Personally, I feel it is NOT possible. I went thru that ... I should know. Even with my prior knowledge, I do not think so I could grasp those concepts in ... days?

If I am telling those newbies that MA is lagging ... can u imagine the word 'lag' is new to them in trading? How are they going to understand how to use MA ... when the word 'lag' needs to be explained?


This is a chart of KLCI ... dropped below 20MA on Wed, gapped down and broken 50MA on Thu. Support at 1605 level, still above 100MA. What do all these mean? Buy-hold or sell? Technical rebound expected after Friday many stocks showing harami. So, for short term we could buy for that short term rebound. That is leading ... but using MA, it is a downtrend now ... that is a sell.

One good question came out last night. If a stock is below 50day-MA(like KLCI) but still above 20wk-MA, should we be selling or buying? It is from a young e-tratle of in our group. To be able to ask such question showing that he is trying to digest and understand MA, to be applied in his trading plan.

With all these MA, if it is not confusing enough ... with lack of liquidity in KLSE(and most of the stocks), many of our stocks could be manipulated. Sigh ... technical analysis really fails badly in KLSE and many of KLSE's stocks.

Lets move to HKSE ... as it is cheaper valuation there. I will share with my group in a talk next month about HKSE and few stocks to watch, letting them to learn to move out of KLSE(very expensive and toppish now). I might be having a public talk to share with those who might be interested in HKSE? The risk is high, buying into something we dont understand.

Got to go ...

Note : If we need to trade, trade short term. If we need to sell, sell during rebound. Avoid penny speculative stocks, avoid call-warrants. Keep more cash ... and perhaps look into broader picture. Acquire that knowledge could save us from being burnt again?

TEH
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Discussions
1 person likes this. Showing 16 of 16 comments

lotsofmoney

Nothing beat common sense. It will be down , down, down.

2012-09-10 10:16

Weng Fai Yik

Agreed, it will be down, down and down.

2012-09-10 20:30

PaulinaYong

KLCI will rebound back by the END of this MONTH(SEPTEMBER)..But BEFORE that MAJOR SELL OFF (GREATER THAN LAST THURSDAY) will HAPPEN probably in MID SEPTEMBER..
This WEDNESDAY or THURSDAY probably you can see some RALLY due to ECB & GERMANY bla bla bal..
After that the consol will happen as usual..
Prepare the CASH for SHOPPING SPREE..
=)

2012-09-10 21:16

kkbee

If another big sell off in mid September, today is 10/9, which means very near already.

2012-09-10 22:17

PaulinaYong

YES correct kkbee..
But it is in my observation..
The CHART HISTORY will repeat itself...

2012-09-10 22:19

ccs999

Hi Paulina Yong, thanks for your comments. I read your comments before regarding Glomac and Hua Yang. You put on BUY call on it, Glomac is closed at RM0.8 today, possible will break the holding point? Thanks.....

2012-09-10 22:21

PaulinaYong

Dear friend..
I'm unable to give you opinion now as market in MAJOR SELL OFF mode...
Better keep in the side line until fresh signal sign...

2012-09-10 22:23

reshkumar

Aiyo..ini mcm cakap kah pauline..ada idea sama DRBHICOM??

2012-09-10 22:32

ccs999

Thanks, Paulina.....

2012-09-10 22:33

lotsofmoney

DRBHICOM just buy into Proton and with VW is in Car business in a big way. The Asian Trade Agreement and the present recession is not very favourable for cars. On the other hand, DRB have also acquired a very large landbank which is good. At the present price, it is a hold.

2012-09-11 10:06

Weng Fai Yik

Wow Pauline I like your conviction in your KLCI prediction (major selloff in mid Sept and rebound in end Sept). Just curious what is this forecast based on? Is it based on previous September months or TA, or mixture of both? Cheers! =)

2012-09-11 12:52

KC Loh

Market oversold. It has leg to be ending around 1630 index at least. But that's just me! :)

Good time to be cautiously greedy!

2012-09-11 13:57

kAcM@s7

people just cautious on 9/11 anniversary...

2012-09-11 14:02

dknycom

So stupid for remember this 911 anniversary.
Future is more important.

2012-09-11 14:24

KC Loh

Dkny, what is meant here is another unexpected repeat attack

2012-09-11 14:27

Lim Rachel May Wan

based on TA, is klci going long or reversal ie short next week? cos i read 2 blogs reading TA with different conclusions ~ any input?

2012-10-27 21:41

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