kcchongnz blog
Jaks: Is Santa Claus coming to town? kcchongnz
I read a top article in i3investor just now, on “Why Jaks?”, in the link below,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/godsonkyy/176074.jsp
Again, it never fails to amaze me on the grossly misleading statements below.
First it says,
“The 3 Chinese National Banks must have studied the power purchase agreement before they are prepared to finance Rm 7.76 billion for the project.
It is like the Chinese Banks is giving a profit guarantee to all the Jaks shareholders every year for 25 years when the JV sells electricity to the Vietnamese Government.”
Wow, some profit guarantee from banks for 25 years! That was fantastic, incredible, unimaginable. What a great “Santa Claus” deal was that!
I have been in the construction industry for many years in the contracting environment. We have utility privatization project too such as that of the water supply project in Johore. We too got financing arrangement with a large bank here, Maybank, which lent us millions Ringgit for the project. But never in our mind that our profit was guaranteed by Maybank, just because it lent us money. We had to work our ass out to ensure the project was carried out successfully, and rewarded with the recurring income once the water project was completed. Maybank would be happy to get interest payment from their lending as well as eventually recouping their capital. That was the only thing Maybank was concerned about.
The bank lends out money for project financing. What do they concern about lending out this money? To guarantee profit for the shareholders of the lender?
Of course not! Their concern is to get interest payments from the project operators, and make sure that the lending came with collateral, or the projected cash flows from the project is adequate for the payment of interest and the repayment of their capital eventually. They would make sure that their interest is paid first before shareholders getting any dividend. Where got guarantee your profit?
Where on earth got such bankers who are so stupid to guarantee your profit, and for every year and for 25 years? Santa Claus ah?
The next misleading statement was,
“During the construction, the Chinese JV partners pay Rm 454 million to Jaks and this sum of money is to be used as capital for owning 30% of the Joint venture. Moreover, the Chinese would undertake the construction and Jaks is not even required to lay a brick.
I wish to point out that Jaks will own 30% of the Joint Venture free of charge.”
The comment below makes sense,
[Posted by sense maker > Sep 30, 2018 02:23 PM | Report Abuse 
Jaks need to do nothing but will take away 30% stake in the power plant and its recurring profits for 25 years. Sounds too good to b true.]
No need to come out with any money and no need to do anything and eventually own 30% stake in a 1200 MW power plant with huge recurring cash flows. It is a big fat frog jumping around. All costs are paid and absorbed by the generous Chinese.
Many of my friends doing business in China told me that negotiating with the Chinese in business is very tough. They would squeeze you dry, especially when they are in upper hand in any agreement.
Lastly this statement,
“I think it is a very good share to buy bearing in mind that its NTA is about Rm 2.20 per share without any valuation of the 30% of the 1,200 Mw power plant.”
Just wondering why would a big major shareholder so stupid and sold down 72 million shares at cheap sale below RM1.00, when his cost is above RM1.50, for a loss of more than RM36m?
How on earth he gets the NTA of Jaks is RM2.20? What is his “NTA”?
How is that the above valuation even did not consider of the value in the power plant when there is an item on “Investment in JV” in the balance sheet of Jaks?
Is NTA of Jaks relevant in the investment thesis of Jaks? Is the “Golden Rule” of increasing profit during the construction stage where money is placed from the right pocket to the left pocket, relevant?
Actually, to me, the most important information for investing in Jaks is the future cash flows attributed to Jaks in the Vietnam power plant project when it is in operation, and how much is translated to the cash flows per share in the future, after taking into all the future dilutions of shares of Jaks.
What are the estimated future annual free cash flows for Jaks after the completion of the power plant, and discount them back to the present? From this, then we can make an assessment if Jaks is worth investing. There must be adequate margin of safety (MOS) in view that there are substantial debt holding claiming this future cash flows too.
If that future cash flows are large and with adequate MOS, of course Jaks is worth investing. But be aware of the risks involved too as described here,
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/kcchongnz/123266.jsp
The management should be able to shed some light and be transparent about it.
Without that information, we may be able to try to estimate the future cash flows based on information such as project cost, project IRR, capital structure etc. But that could only be a rough estimation.
Otherwise, buying Jaks is only a speculative endeavour. Of course it doesn’t mean speculating in the stock market can’t make money. But it doesn’t mean one won’t lose money too. We have seen people losing huge amount of money in Jaks in the last few months, haven’t we?
No, I am not saying Jaks is not a good candidate as a speculation. I also did not say it is not a good investment.
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Discussions
7 people like this. Showing 50 of 60 comments
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 1, 2018 10:43 PM | Report Abuse
that is actually quite typical of people who got no balls to commit but interested in showing off or kicking up a fuss.
I still remember vividly 7 months ago someone thought his balls were big and pretty ind telling everyone everyday to sailang and margin on Jaks when it was selling between RM1.50 to RM1.85.
It turns out after exposing his balls and showed that his balls are actually twisted and ugly when Jaks fell to 83 sen 6 months latter.
Yet he still think his balls are big and pretty now, everyday talking about nonsense.
2018-10-02 07:37
I agreed with KC that it is naïve to believe Chinese bank will give guarantee for the profit of the power plant. It is like saying when Malaysian bank gives out housing loan to you, the bank guarantee our property investment will profit us. No, the bank just make sure u can pay them back before they approve your housing loan.
2018-10-02 09:20
kc
You can redeem your self by committing yourself and your formulas to a couple to stocks....lol...if you dare.
otherwise they say your formulas only good for armchair critics but no balls to commit.
2018-10-02 10:11
and as for Jaks...........
this is what fellow value investor Affin Hwang says....
Maintain BUY Call with a Lower TP of RM1.75
We are maintaining our BUY call, while lowering our TP to RM1.75, on the back of EPS estimate cuts of 9.4-12.8% over 2018-20E, as we factor in higher property losses from the property delay and the higher share base. We still believe that the stock is undervalued, trading at 6.6x 2019E EPS.
Source: Affin Hwang Research - 20 Sept 2018
2018-10-02 10:16
kc
KYY is a businessman and risk taker ( he says so himself). He is not going to write like an analyst, not going to cross every t and not going to dot every i. Why you have chosen to approach kyy writings with a magnifying glass? ...and then..... at the end concluded he (kc) got no conclusion..... lol
if your intention is to talk about extended shares.....then chose an extended share and talk about it....Jaks is not an over extended share.
2018-10-02 10:36
hahaha.....this reminds me of hengyuan....a lot of predictions and assumptions, at the end go holland also
2018-10-02 11:27
kc....how to be value investor when stock market not interested in IPP but interested in bankrupt and badly managed Oil and Gas counters?
another value investor dilemma......
2018-10-02 11:50
nobody knows the hiccups Jaks encounter at the Vietnam plant. doing business is really tough especially in a country where language and business is totally new and alien
2018-10-02 12:24
Posted by Jonathan Keung > Oct 2, 2018 12:24 PM | Report Abuse
nobody knows the hiccups Jaks encounter at the Vietnam plant. doing business is really tough especially in a country where language and business is totally new and alien
=======================
good comment......that is why we have stock market and stock market rewards those who assume the business risk and proven right later.
2018-10-02 12:27
Dear qqq3,
I refer to your comments:
KYY is a businessman and risk taker ( he says so himself). He is not going to write like an analyst, not going to cross every t and not going to dot every i. Why you have chosen to approach kyy writings with a magnifying glass?
I think DK66 had answered your question by correcting 3 factual incorrect information contained in i3investor top article “Why Jaks?”
As of the writer opinion:
“It is like the Chinese Banks is giving a profit guarantee to all the Jaks shareholders every year for 25 years when the JV sells electricity to the Vietnamese Government.”
I would think the writer is stretching his imagination too wide without reasonable facts or logical deduction.
It is my hope that the writer can double check his fact or ask someone to check and correct the incorrect facts for him before he published the article
Thank you
2018-10-02 13:00
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 10:16 AM | Report Abuse
and as for Jaks...........
this is what fellow value investor Affin Hwang says....
Maintain BUY Call with a Lower TP of RM1.75
We are maintaining our BUY call, while lowering our TP to RM1.75, on the back of EPS estimate cuts of 9.4-12.8% over 2018-20E, as we factor in higher property losses from the property delay and the higher share base. We still believe that the stock is undervalued, trading at 6.6x 2019E EPS.
Source: Affin Hwang Research - 20 Sept 2018
So you are a big fan of investment bankers, only wen they write something good about a stock you promote?
Tell you what. This analysis of Affin hwang is nonsense. The investment thesis on Jaks is it future cash flows from Vietnam power plant, discounted to the present value. And its value per share for Jaks.
EPS is a stupid reason. 6.6 times PE? That is a hopeless analysis from an investment bank.
I thought you don't believe in low PE? So now circumstance suits you and you worship PE?
2018-10-02 15:09
yes, I am a big fan of investment bankers when they promote stuffs I like....not when they behave like 1 MDB bankers.
and,
The NTA of Jaks at 30 June 2018 is $ 1.47....The IPP of Jaks is expected to add $1.00 NPV to Jaks....based on very conservative estimates.
Actually KYY got great intuition to say NTA of Jaks is $ 2.50....
2018-10-02 15:40
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 03:40 PM | Report Abuse
yes, I am a big fan of investment bankers when they promote stuffs I like....not when they behave like 1 MDB bankers.
and,
The NTA of Jaks at 30 June 2018 is $ 1.47....The IPP of Jaks is expected to add $1.00 NPV to Jaks....based on very conservative estimates.
Actually KYY got great intuition to say NTA of Jaks is $ 2.50....
Let me correct you a few more misinformation you spread.
1) The NTA of Jaks is not RM1.47. Its NAB is RM1.47.
2) (1) above already included the assets of the power plant in Vietnam as explained by DK66, unless you can tell me how the hell you get "NPV" of another RM1.00, some more "based on conservative estimate".
3) "NPV" of the power plant is not that relevant as its present value, as initial investment is a sunk cost not relevant to new shareholders.
4) You don't seem to be able to differentiate between NPV, and PV.
5) Great intuition to say Jaks NTA is $2.50? Why sell at less than RM1.00 and incurr huge losses? You call that "Intuition"?
2018-10-02 16:12
Stock: [JAKS]: JAKS RESOURCES BHD
Sep 25, 2018 10:51 AM | Report Abuse
Reference is made to the subject matter and the announcement made by the Company on 30 July 2018.
The Company's subsidiary, JAKS Island Circle Sdn Bhd's ("JIC") application for interim injunction was heard today, 1 August 2018, in the Federal Court. The Federal Court granted JIC's applications for interim injunction to restrain Star from receiving and the financial institutions from paying on the Bank Guarantees pending the hearing and disposal of JIC's motions for leave to appeal to the Federal Court, which has been fixed on the 26 September 2018.
This announcement is dated 1 August 2018.
=========================
it is not without reason I post the above.
well....I sold my Jaks on 25 June .......now looking to buy back......one more round.....this Jaks very kind to me......
2018-10-02 16:34
I post the above Sep 25, 2018 10:51 AM
I sold my Jaks afternoon session Sept 25.....see....I very generous fellow.
2018-10-02 16:37
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 10:11 AM | Report Abuse
kc
You can redeem your self by committing yourself and your formulas to a couple to stocks....lol...if you dare.
otherwise they say your formulas only good for armchair critics but no balls to commit.
Redeem myself? From what? I have never asked people to sailang and use margin finance for Jaks and as a result causing them to lose their pants, have I?
Formulas? What formulas? Can share ah?
No Balls to commit? You have forgotten that you showed your ugly balls and caused many lost their pants? You better redeem yourself by, I don't know what you can or able to do to redeem yourself.
2018-10-02 16:48
Your knowledge about NPV, IRR and payback period on Jaks power plant is highly in doubt. Certainly there is no way you can compare with DK66. Everyone can see the latter, may be not the earlier.
But let me refute your knowledge of NPV, IRR and payback period, the essential financial evaluation of a project.
There is no projected cash flows given by the JV, although they must have their estimates. Neither DK66 knows that, and I don't think he claims he knows it. Nobody bothers to give you those cash flows, but an indicative IRR. It is from the given IRR, the concession period and the estimated project costs we can roughly estimate the future cash flows of the project.
Hence point no. 1, I agree with DK66 that the IRR of 12% given is the project IRR, and not what as asserted by your previous comment below,
"The IRR of 12% is to equity, not to project, and no this is a statement, not a guess"
From what you are basing on to make such a statement?
I think when IRR is mentioned for a project, it is normally project IRR, as a project viability in financial appraisal normally is independent of the capital structure to be used.
Project IRR of 12%, "therefore Equity IRR is 30%"? How do you connect the two statements?
High equity IRR of more than 30% is not impossible, and I think in Jaks's case, it could very well be. But you must understand the concept of IRR, that all cash flows are reinvested at that rate of return. How to get a return of 30+% from the future cash flows?
Hence equity IRR may not be relevant, what is relevant is the future cash flows for Jaks, what are their magnitude and what is the present value of those future cash flows, and what is it translated to per share of diluted number of shares of Jaks.
An IRR doesn't mean the payback period is 8 years as in your statement below. It is not as straightforward is 1/12%. It is something to do how many years those cash outs are even out from cash ins.
That is why I said you may sound loud, but I doubt you are good as DK66.
Posted by valuelurker > Oct 1, 2018 10:48 PM | Report Abuse
You everyday harp on the same thing people will say you're a nag old man kcchong
You believe DK66 and say he's knowledgeable, so believing those facts, and inputting those numbers into your spreadsheet, that should give you the NPV - 'IRR 12% is to Project, therefore Equity is 30%++'
Instead you revert back to your 'common sense' and disregard the model, the theory, the maths, the thought process...
Youre like the scientist who has a hypothesis, runs the experiment, and the results do not conform to his hypothesis, then proceeds to disregard the test results and sticks to his hypothesis because thats what his 'gut' tells him - yeah way to go scientific advancement lol. Next time when you cannot prove or disprove something, dont go and tell the world you agree/disagree with someone - youre just like another one of those who are going to mislead people
Old man koon has access to management, he's substantial shareholder - at the start he was touting the massive 'construction profits', wanting to con the masses with the 'massive construction profits' and then it first proposed that the profits are not real, he now pivots to 'the 30% share in he IPP is free' - in that whole time, he has never mentioned anything about the yearly cashflows over the period of the 25 years of the IPP - oh he knows, and he knows its nothing to shout about - IRR 12% equals payback in 8 years, only desperate to change their fortunes JAKS would accept such lousy returns for an overseas venture.
But just like your 'too good to be true' common sense, all of this is still just conjecture and guesses
None of it is irrefutable, absolute truth
2018-10-02 18:38
kc chong.....balls to commit means balls to stake your reputation on some stocks....not just go criticise KYY stocks over 2 years already........
and as for Sendai...my private whatsapp to KYY.....
[14:45, 9/30/2018] Sendai on the other hand I am bullish.... The environment is right for them. I think the sale of lift boat is not yet reflected in last results and will be reflected in next results..
[14:47, 9/30/2018] Middle East should be booming with cash at current oil price. Should be party time.
I very generous one...go buy Sendai before he does......
2018-10-02 18:50
I teaching my analyst son yesterday....
the dichotomy of stock market.....
stock market is stock market....mostly unrelated to reality. Oil price breaks records, every bankrupt and badly managed OG counter also heavily bought...you think these bankrupt and badly managed OG companies will do well meh?
stock market......mostly what is good short term is bad long term and opposite is true.
and analysts are mostly playing Games People play.
every thing about stock market is about Games people Play.....just a game...Games theory is therefore a better tool than all the Kc Chong formulas and tools.
2018-10-02 19:18
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 06:50 PM | Report Abuse
kc chong.....balls to commit means balls to stake your reputation on some stocks....not just go criticise KYY stocks over 2 years already........
ME: DON'T HAVE TO PLP. I DON'T CRITICIZE ANYONE ON PURPOSE, BUT TO SHARE MY OPINION ON SOME GROSSLY MISLEADING STATEMENTS. JAKS IS A PUBLIC LISTED COMPANY. IT DOESN'T SPECIFICALLY BELONG TO ANYONE.
and as for Sendai...my private whatsapp to KYY.....
[14:45, 9/30/2018] Sendai on the other hand I am bullish.... The environment is right for them. I think the sale of lift boat is not yet reflected in last results and will be reflected in next results..
[14:47, 9/30/2018] Middle East should be booming with cash at current oil price. Should be party time.
ME: DON'T HAVE TO PUBLISH PERSONAL EMAIL LAH! WHO CARES? WHAT IS YOUR MOTIVATION? THAT YOU GOT SOMEONE FAMOUS ADMIRING YOU?
I very generous one...go buy Sendai before he does......
ME: I HAVE SEEN AND READ ENOUGH OF THIS "GENEROUS" GESTURES. ANYONE WHO HAS TAKEN IT ALL END UP IN DEEP SHIT IN THEIR FINANCIAL WELL-BEING. I HAVE NEVER MET A SAINT IN I3INVESTOR, BUT PLENTY OF DEVILS.
TO ME IT IS MORE LIKE,
NOTE: I DELETED MY COMMENT HERE AS I REALIZE I AM JUST SPARRING WITH THIS FELLOW, AND NOT OTHERS.
2018-10-02 19:23
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 07:18 PM | Report Abuse
I teaching my analyst son yesterday....
the dichotomy of stock market.....
stock market is stock market....mostly unrelated to reality. Oil price breaks records, every bankrupt and badly managed OG counter also heavily bought...you think these bankrupt and badly managed OG companies will do well meh?
stock market......mostly what is good short term is bad long term and opposite is true.
and analysts are mostly playing Games People play.
every thing about stock market is about Games people Play.....just a game...Games theory is therefore a better tool than all the Kc Chong formulas and tools.
I don't know your analyst son listen to you or not. My guess is the best is he treats what you say as wind by the ears.
If he ever listen to you, then this is my best advice to you, and it is free.
Stay away from your son if you want him to to successful in life and his future financial well-being. Leave him alone.
2018-10-03 10:28
yes, leave him alone
Jho Low father taught his son how to be cunning when he was young
now see what happens to the young man ?
2018-10-03 10:41
icon
all the analysts in town are still wet behind the ears....all very inexperienced one.
the experienced ones all went off to do some thing less demanding than working until midnight and sometimes work until morning.
2018-10-03 11:03
icon
the analysts work
the Jho Lows party
I think every young analyst prefer to be partying than to be working.
2018-10-03 11:08
just don't teach your son the bad things... let him learn by himself (just like you and me)
2018-10-03 11:10
Very good article to read, newbies better read to see both sides story, rather than listen to one sided thing.
2018-10-03 11:16
Posted by KLCI King > Oct 3, 2018 11:16 AM | Report Abuse
Very good article to read, newbies better read to see both sides story, rather than listen to one sided thing.
===============
did u notice this article got no conclusion one?
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 1, 2018 10:40 PM | Report Abuse X
This KC kick up a fuss and at the end concluded he got no conclusion..... lol
2018-10-03 11:22
yes, qqq3, agreed what you said, it does not have any conclusion & not even an analysis, it is just another article pointing out the weak points on the other article.
I like to hear different stories to make better-informed decision.
Because of many have talked about Jaks, now I also try to see if the vietnam project can deliver good cash flow back for Jaks or not.
Hope it won't be like Ekovest, once Duke 2 completed, cash flow koyak.
2018-10-03 11:26
Jaks Vietnam project not yet start why assume everything to be fine?
Even WCE highway can delay.
2018-10-03 11:32
kcchong....
you are no business man.....too bad.
but Andy is a Businessman.....you know what he will do?
Andy will pile on all the good news only after completion of the warrants issue. That is what good businessmen do.
2018-10-03 13:12
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 11:50 AM | Report Abuse
kc....how to be value investor when stock market not interested in IPP but interested in bankrupt and badly managed Oil and Gas counters?
Value investor must invest in IPP stocks? Tell me why?
How much you invested in Mudajaya 5 years ago when it was hot with the power plant project in India, and promoted every week in public forums such as i3investor at RM3.00+?
How much did you invest in Malakoff IPO at RM1.80 4 and a half years ago, and now less than half the IPO price?
Badly managed oil and gas companies cannot be invested by value investor?
I believe if you are good at investing in distressed debts, you may make big money in those O&G companies too.
Again, another free lesson for you; making money is not about investing in which sector, which stock, but what is its price versus value and the margin of safety.
I have been so kind to you for almost every statement you made, I taught you investing lesson.
2018-10-03 14:47
Bit by Bit and bip by bip, true colours are coming out...Otherwise no truth BUT Bull shit and Cock show..
2018-10-03 15:52
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 2, 2018 06:50 PM | Report Abuse
and as for Sendai...my private whatsapp to KYY.....
[14:45, 9/30/2018] Sendai on the other hand I am bullish.... The environment is right for them. I think the sale of lift boat is not yet reflected in last results and will be reflected in next results..
[14:47, 9/30/2018] Middle East should be booming with cash at current oil price. Should be party time.
I very generous one...go buy Sendai before he does......
Santa Claus coming to town again?
You better watch out, you better not cry
You better not pout, I'm telling you why
If the share price continue to drop from now onward, there will be forced selling of big margin player son, very soon.
2018-10-03 16:07
by kcchongnz > Oct 3, 2018 02:47 PM | Report Abuse
I believe if you are good at investing in distressed debts, you may make big money in those O&G companies too.
===========
so now you want to be known as junk bond king? as well as teacher to newbies?
I tell you what....for most people.....they will be in good hands as long as their money is in good businesses with business sense and good quality management........like qL, for example.......
2018-10-03 16:10
kc
sendai? There are many other shares to worry about ....not Sendai.....Sendai operations are mainly in Middle East and Middle East is swimming in cash with current oil price.
2018-10-03 16:16
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 3, 2018 04:10 PM | Report Abuse
I tell you what....for most people.....they will be in good hands as long as their money is in good businesses with business sense and good quality management........like qL, for example......
I agree with you 100% about the management of QL.
However, we are talking about Sendai.
How much do you know about the boss, besides having a Tan Sri title? How good is the management?
I don't know them but I can evaluate them, from what they have been saying in the past, what they did and what are the outcomes.
Over-promise but under-delivered.
That is the signature dish.
Go read the past annual report since listed. You don't have to believe in me.
What man, keep on harping on good management, but don't have the faintest idea how the management has been doing for the minority shareholders.
You are just keeping on exposing your ignorance.
2018-10-03 16:23
kc
what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.
I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.
2018-10-03 16:25
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 3, 2018 04:25 PM | Report Abuse
kc
what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.
I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.
Mine low quality stuff? What do I own which is low quality? Please state here.
Jaks and Sendai high quality stuff?
I told you to look at Jaks annual report; what they have done in term of shareholder value enhancement? What quality is the management; what they say, and what they did, and the outcome?
Same as Jaks. Both the quality of their business and the management. The latter for Jaks is actually obvious to most investors.
I don't know if you are blind or what?
2018-10-03 16:56
Posted by qqq3 > Oct 3, 2018 04:10 PM | Report Abuse
by kcchongnz > Oct 3, 2018 02:47 PM | Report Abuse
I believe if you are good at investing in distressed debts, you may make big money in those O&G companies too.
===========
so now you want to be known as junk bond king? as well as teacher to newbies?
I tell you what....for most people.....they will be in good hands as long as their money is in good businesses with business sense and good quality management........like qL, for example.......
Distressed debts are junk bonds?
You see you are a really a hopeless "accountant".
2018-10-03 17:50
kc
what I don't like about your approach to stock market is you like to teach people to look for low quality but "cheap" stuffs.
I think most people are better served if they stick to good quality stuffs.
true, what I say about you.
People like u...always only like to talk about valuations, valuation this valuation that, as if stock market can be so easily valued, people like you will only land up with low quality stuffs.
and as for Jaks and Sendai.....people buy Jaks and sendai have their own evaluations and reasons. ...and if they make a lot of money, it is because they are willing to take the market and business risks associated with their purchase......why cannot meh?
2018-10-03 17:57
ItChing is pretty correct and right on track. Good business, good management and what management say comes to pass. Good on you kcchongz
2018-10-05 21:41
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