Koon Yew Yin's Blog
Will Palm oil price fall? Koon Yew Yin
Koon Yew Yin
Publish date: Sun, 31 Oct 2021, 03:55 PM
Koon Yew Yin
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An official blog in i3investor to publish sharing by Mr. Koon Yew Yin.
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
All materials published here are prepared by Mr. Koon Yew Yin
The crude palm oil (CPO) price chart below shows that CPO price has risen from Rm 2,200 per ton in April 2020 to close at a historical record high of Rm 5,300, an increase of Rm 3,100 per ton within the last 18 months.
The reasons why CPO price shot up in the last 18 months are as follows:
During the last 18 months, Indonesia and Malaysia have been taking all the necessary steps to prevent the spread of Covid 19 virus.
Both of the governments implemented MCO and lockdown. Workers could not go to work in the plantations to fertilise the palm trees and collect the fruits. Truck drivers could not go to drive trucks to transport the fruits to the crushing plants and to deliver palm oil to the refineries. As a result, the shortage of CPO supply pushed the CPO price up higher.
For decades, all the plantation companies have been expanding their plantations. As a result, CPO price has been falling below Rm 1,500 per ton in 2009 as shown on the price chart above.
Currently there is no more MCO and lockdown. All the people are free to go about to work and condition will become normal again as before. The current CPO record high price of Rm 5,300 per ton is not sustainable. It will fall sooner or later.
I hope investors will read this article and take appropriate action.
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Discussions
Be the first to like this. Showing 50 of 88 comments
I agree with you Calvin, this old man writes lots of nonsense and misleading article
2021-11-01 04:44
This Geezer doesn't know anything about the oil palm business. He's talking nonsense.
2021-11-01 07:21
Btw is there a saving of rm500*3pct for every tonne for peninsula palm right?
2021-11-01 08:27
Brazil's 2021-22 soybean output forecast at record 140.7 million mt: Conab
Global supply of the oilseed in 2022 is likely to be ample as a result; Brazil is the leading producer and exporter of soybeans, accounting for more than a third of the world's soybean production.
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/100821-brazils-2021-22-soybean-output-forecast-at-record-1407-million-mt-conab
2021-11-01 08:52
Palm oil stocks at China and India is lower than last year but extremely tight...
As Sep 21 Palm oil inventory at china
September 398,300 MT (2021) 409,500 MT (2020)
As Sep 21 Palm oil inventory a at India
September 602,429 MT (2021) 304,957 MT (2020)
Expected the export for Palm oil in Oct will be lower than Sep...
I believe buyers will not hurry to buy a lot to stock up at current high price..
https://mpoc.org.my/monthly-stock-comparison-2021/
2021-11-01 09:06
Aiyah, just because he hasn't bought ma....... in 2 months time when the cop touches Rm6000 , he will say he bought a lot...... Cunny fellow, last bull on plantation he asked people to sailang on Jtiasa when the price is 2.50rm. Haha.... please listen to him and sell, he will buy.
2021-11-01 09:46
We have many Sifus with some attacking the others. Some make U turns within days while there was no change in the economic situation. Just read everything but believe a few and take the rest wirh a pinch of sale. Never fully trust them as most have hidden agendas
2021-11-01 10:03
kyy ask you buy you better sell, kyy ask you sell you better buy.
simple and just do it and you will earn money
2021-11-01 10:53
Palm oil is unhealthy as cooking oil and it is over rated.
It's time to dump it before it crash hard.
2021-11-01 13:01
Saturated oil is the best fat for human consumption !!!
Palm oil got the best type of vit. E !!!
2021-11-01 13:19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM5AotI70Ko
"The human body needs good saturated fats" — Dr. Ken Berry
2021-11-01 13:22
Next year if the production increase the price may drop 10% - 20% but don't expect it drop to below RM4,000. During December2019 investment banks said the CPO sure drop back to RM2,000+ by April 2020. During December 2020 investment bank said CPO sure drop to back to RM3,000 by May/June 2021. What is the price of CPO Now ? Investment bank and KYY is just guessing.
2021-11-01 15:15
Palm oil is the most economical cooking oil in the world, if no substitute cooking oil can be found in the near future then the price will not drop drastically.
2021-11-01 15:38
Further factors are these
1. Indonesia and Malaysia banned further conversion of forest to oil palm cultivation
So no new oil palm but world population is growing by 80 million per year (0nly 1% growth out of 8 billion people on earth. So demand increase but supply no longer increase
2021-11-01 16:48
USA refineries under clean energy mandate to turning from fossil fuel to biodisel fuel on a MASSIVE SCALE
LATER BOTH REFINERIES AND BAKERS WILL BE FIGHTING OVER SOYBEAN FOR FOOD AND FOR CLEAN FUEL
WITH SUCH STRUCTURAL DEMAND (REFINERY RECONFIGURED FOR BIODISEL USE) SOY OIL AND ITS PROXY COMPETITOR WILL SEE SUSTAINED PRICES
2021-11-01 16:57
What kind of analysis from someone long enoughin the market ! very very shallow indeed .
2021-11-01 19:00
He just got the fact wrong why CPO Charge way way above historical price level !
He totally ignorant and simply bluff why CPO crash in 2009 amid Lehman's collapse! What a shame.
2021-11-01 19:04
Dunno about Uncle Con but have a brother-in-law who owns palm oil land/farm. Price can only go up from now until they can resolve the labor shortage issues. MCO over does not mean there will be many workers ready to go back to work in the industry, you need to be in it to know the real details.
This article too shallow to believe. Looks like a copy and paste from some reading.
2021-11-01 19:13
The only reason Kyy talk about palm oil because Calvin been writing & promoting palm oil stock for far too long and almost everyday until no one notice kyy steel stock promotion.
2021-11-01 19:22
I will continue to collect MHC and Cepat. Both are having very good management teams and low debt/equity ratio. Both are small plantation companies that don't have to warry about "cukai makmur".
2021-11-01 19:40
gladiator The only reason Kyy talk about palm oil because Calvin been writing & promoting palm oil stock for far too long and almost everyday until no one notice kyy steel stock promotion.
01/11/2021 7:22 PM
OOOO!! THEN, CALVIN SHOULD REPLY TO UNCLE WITH NEW ARTICLE 'WILL STEEL PRICE FALL?'
2021-11-01 23:28
ignore the old senile and cunning uncle . Nowadays nobody believe in him anymore.
2021-11-02 06:10
Uncle caution CPO price correction . Is that justified?
I would like to share the year's high (H) , low (L) and the simple average (Avg) from year 2008 to 2021as below :
2008. $4179 (H) , $1403 (L) , $2791 (Avg)
2009. 2887,. 1630. 2259
2010. 3782. 2386. 3084
2011. 3930. 2786. 3358
2012. 3567. 2027. 2797
2013. 2635. 2157. 2396
2014. 2917. 1933. 2425
2015. 2360. 1802. 2081
2016. 3243. 2181. 2712
2017. 3344. 2338. 2841
2018. 2555. 1718. 2137
2019. 3025. 1834. 2430
2020. 3835. 2021 2928
----------------------------------------------------
Avg. 3251. 2017. 2634
----------------------------------------------------
2021YTD 5395. 3471. 4434
2021's H is 29% higher than the highest H (2008)
2021's H is 66% higher than the avg H 2008-2019
2021's L. Is 147% higher than the lowest L (2008)
2021's L is 72% higher than the avg L 2008-2019
2021's Avg is 68% higher than the Avg 2008-2019.
(Note : in 2008 , Lehman's collapse in Sept caused global panic and hence commodity prices )
Despite the above , all plantantion counters stock prices are 20-50% below the highs achieved in 2008 -2020 period . Mind boggling indeed.
So, why should there be worries if CPO price indeed correct for 10-20% next year ??
02/11/2021 9:54 AM
2021-11-02 10:06
Should stop posting under KYY thread and instead start "why CPO will remain resilient"
2021-11-02 10:11
Why Mr.KYY didn't using same theory to advise investors in steel sectors? or Mr.KYY think steel price can long last forever?
2021-11-02 10:29
Why this iddiot go every way to promote palm oil stocks?
If you so confidence what you bought, why need to go every way non-stop talking unless you start realise not the better choice so need all waterfish members here to support you
I don't why 3iii administer didn't take any action to suspend this iddiot account to avoid keep on spamming every way
I pegging administer need to take proper action against this spammer
Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 1, 2021 4:48 PM | Report Abuse
Further factors are these
1. Indonesia and Malaysia banned further conversion of forest to oil palm cultivation
Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 1, 2021 4:49 PM | Report Abuse
Both indonesia and Malaysia are mixing palm oil as B30 biodisel to fuel
So more palm oil goes into power for vehicles less for export
Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 1, 2021 4:53 PM | Report Abuse
Canada Rapeseed oil failed badly this past summer
Since Only Northern hemisphere produce most of Rapeseed or canola oil (not Argentina, Brazil or Australia ). There won't be enough canola oil until August 2022 for next Canadian canola harvest
Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 1, 2021 4:57 PM | Report Abuse
USA refineries under clean energy mandate to turning from fossil fuel to biodisel fuel on a MASSIVE SCALE
Posted by calvintaneng > Nov 1, 2021 5:02 PM | Report Abuse
The worst is yet to come for currency debasement by Fed relentless money printing
2021-11-02 13:52
Bro Koon, please dont listen or learn from your half bake, remisier, god, guru, master, gold finger, educator and so on!!! If they are excellent, why they need your tuition fee please? My two cents, indicator about inflation is down, price for commodity should be down. 10% to 20% down for CPO is ok. Main negative news for plantation company is 33% tax after 100 million profit (Budget 2022). All bad news for CPO, any bad drop please!? No, what is it mean please!? Price for commodity is not about supply n demand, everything is about politic! Why Euro want to ban CPO please!? If you think America & China problem can overcome by tomorrow or few months time then you need to sell all stock. Beside that, America debt are so high. The best way to make this debt look small is inflation. On other hand, the best way to create inflation is breakup. What I foresee is "HYPERINFLATION" on the way!!! Last, situation can be change instantly. Investment is about control risk.
2021-11-02 17:32
Thanks TheGardener, Calvintaneng and all others provide the valuable information. I am very confident to add more plantation stocks in my portfolio.
2021-11-03 14:51
When this sifu give advise to sell all plantation stock when CPO too high on 31 Oct 2021, he did not know or rather don't spend time to understand that underlying environment at that time will support CPO price.
Fast forward to today, he is changing his tune to buy plantation stock because CPO price is at elevated 7k. And yet his choice of company is as bad as his skill of prediction, TDM.
Maybe his should change to disciple instead of sifu for him to make money in stock market
2022-03-11 11:48
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ming
no fertilizer no worker..
Mean price should up further lo xD
2021-11-01 02:47