MYCRON what happen?

what happen to MYCRON ?

Lazymandiary
Publish date: Fri, 02 Dec 2016, 10:05 PM
Lazymandiary
0 5
this is my first time trying to post on i3investor.
just sharing my thoughts on mycron

http://lazymandiar.blogspot.my/2016/12/mycron-what-happen.html
Following Message

Just sharing my thoughts on MYCRON.

I did not research and study much on steel counters, but MYCRON has got my attention on a very weird pattern. Normally, when a company QR result is good, the price will either go sideways, or push up or drop a bit or volatile. but for MYCRON, it has drop significantly for about 27% within a week after it's QR release, and furthermore, it's QR is pretty good.

 

 

 

A real sracth head right? how is this impossible for I really dont understand, but as I said, I didnt learn much about steel industries so I would not really know what happen.

Only explanation I can give now is, maybe people have overly high expectation for MYCRON, or maybe big sharks have the same feeling for MYCRON before it's QR.

 

 

From Homily chart we can see that loads and loads of Big Shark are eyeing eagerly on MYCRON before it's recent QR. But as soon as the QR is out, I can see that a lot of Big Sharks swam away on the 29th November.

 

I couldn't get hard evidence or news about MYCRON big downtrend, more like weird downtrend. So I can only check on gossips. but which does really make sense.

 

But there's also another main reason and also why the Big Shark try to run ASAP. I may be wrong, but the prospect I read from MYCRON latest QR does sound like a very negative future growth.

 

 

So, the mystery of MYCRON big sell down??? I may seen something but I'm still not very sure.

My lesson learn today is, one need to understand all kind of business nature, despite you like it or not.

 

NOTE, THIS IS NOT A BUY CALL OR SELL CALL.

I JUST SHARING MY THOUGHTS AND RESEARCH.

 

 

 

 

 

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Be the first to like this. Showing 17 of 17 comments

John Lu

Dunno what u trying to say

2016-12-02 22:14

leoting

Simply overshot effect...its price one step ahead the steel theme.

2016-12-02 22:28

Lazymandiary

mr John, I'm just trying to express that bankers may have forseen the downtrend of MYCRON business and they try to sell off whatever they have now. I may be wrong but this is just my own thought.

2016-12-02 22:28

John Lu

Buy hibiscus better

2016-12-02 22:30

stockraider

Posted by stockraider > Dec 2, 2016 11:12 AM | Report Abuse X

Financially and corp governance wise....this mycron is no way compare with CSC loh.....!!

Also div from CSC very steady and consistent...even bad times mah...!!

Melewar group are bunch of conman loh.....!!
Ask yourself when was the last time this mycron and melewar pays div leh ?

Don look at directors remunerations and nice annual reports to make decision...bcos it is peanuts mah...if they sapu....they will sapu big big mah....!

Mycron is a shiok sendiri stock....no matter how good the profit...the owner will not share with u loh.....!!

After sometime....they will scheme....something....and take all...the accumulated cash and profit out....all for their own benefit...without sharing with u mah...!!

2016-12-02 22:34

Bullhunter

wat happen, u tell us lah...

2016-12-02 22:35

Jon Choivo

Simple. A friend of mine is currently doing forensic for melewar, you wont believe the amount of claims the ceo takes, and how each project without fail, sure over budget one.

In terms of bad management, this is a 9/10.

2016-12-02 23:22

ABCDEFGHIJKLMN

Jon Choivo, your friend is just a staff of an audit firm, whereas my friend just played golf with the ceo this evening at Suajana Golf Club, Azlan told him that mycron is now deeply undervalued, factory is running maximum rate, price will go up to 2 in few months time.

2016-12-02 23:30

probability

The dip in Mycron is due to expectations prior to results and the bleak forecast on coming quarter.

the problem is their products - local CRC iron ore & scrap based is not rising as per the external market unlike the rise in raw material HRC imported (due to Megasteel closure)...

The local CRC consumers on the hand are enjoying a fairly unchanged cost in raw material but a better pricing of their final end products as per the rising Steel Price.

This could partly due to the fact that CRC imported from POSCO has very small Duty imposed unlike the high duty imposed on HRC imported.

This is causing companies like PRESTAR to gain significantly going forward.....

2016-12-02 23:31

ABCDEFGHIJKLMN

Forgot to tell, my friend's name is YBhg Datuk Chow

2016-12-02 23:43

ronnietan

probability, you said Prestar now imports HRC from Posco with small duty? Howcome small duty. HRC at a lower price perhaps.
So it might be similar for CSC which could import from Taiwanese parent.

2016-12-03 00:22

probability

ronnietan, i meant CRC as per below:

http://www.miti.gov.my/index.php/pages/view/3343

I believe CRC is its major portion of raw material to produce its end products via cutting and machining. The product includes Steel Tubes.

2016-12-03 02:56

probability

The above lesser duty on CRC of ~ 3 % from POSCO Korea and Vietnam compared to other countries at 10 -20 over % appears to be specifically catered for PRESTAR.

POSCO based in Vietnam or Korea could procure HRC as their raw material without a high duty unlike Malaysian HRC consumers like Mycron & YKGI.... As such they can produce CRC at way cheaper pricing.

This is truly giving an advantage to PRESTAR.

2016-12-03 03:04

stockraider

If prestar can import Coil with low duties, there is nothing stop CSC, Mycron, Choobee, annjoo and hiaptek to import coil with low duty too mah.....!!

Steel business is a commodity business, no one had a profound competitive advantage especially imports, it all boil down to efficiency mah....!!

2016-12-03 10:06

probability

Raider, the duty above is for CRC and not HRC....

Key difference between (1) Mycron / Cscsteel/ YKGI with (2) Prestar:

- (1) uses Imported HRC now as their raw material due to Megasteel Closure

- (2) mainly uses CRC imported from its susbsidaries (this is the reason the Duty is placed very low relative to other supplier , refer link from MITI above).

- (2) also uses HRC to make the CRC but likely using Vietnam to acquire the cheaply imported HRC there in Vietnam with lesser duty and then convert to CRC.

- the last two phenomenon is indirectly disabling (1) excluding Cscsteel to raise their Selling Prices of CRC as their Buyers - end downstream manufactures need a competitive price of CRC as their raw material to compete with PRESTAR.

2016-12-03 11:16

Benjamin_8888

Not sure how is the net profit of Csc on 4Q, but their production lines are still busy as usual in Oct

2016-12-03 11:23

probability

Things are becoming clearer..

The CRC produced from Scrap based HRC are used for Steel Tube making as per below:

http://www.prestar.com.my/bizActivities/steelUnit_prestarsteel.asp

i believe this is the reason PRESTAR had mentioned that they stand to gain from the closure of Megasteel in their latest qtr report.

If one studies Mycron's latest quarterly results, one would know that their Steel Tube segment margin had significantly improved compared to their quarter ending 31March 2016 albeit marginally lower than the preceding qtr performance. This is purely due to Imported HRC and the rise in Steel Tubes pricing accordingly.

The Steel Tubes produced by Prestar are of similar specification to Mycron unlike Choo Bee's which are not suited to high end petrochemical or process plant applications.

2016-12-03 12:17

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