"Even under the unlikely scenario of Indo AirAsia (IAA) and Phil AirAsia (PAA) going bankrupt and 100 percent of the receivables owed by related parties are written off, our analysis shows that AirAsia will remain in a very solvent position," Jian Bo Gan, an analyst at CLSA, said in a note earlier this week.
While he noted the risk those receivables might become impaired, he added that not only was the risk not new, the current low oil prices could "forgive" the associates' competitive issues, making a full write-off unlikely. He kept a buy call, with a 3.10 ringgit target.
The shares' sharp drop spurred the carrier to file a statement to the Malaysia stock exchange midday Wednesday.
"Management would like to assure the investment community that the company has a solid footing, strong balance sheet, rich in assets and good business outlook," the statement said, citing its ability to boost its first quarter earnings despite the fallout from the crash of flight QZ8501. AirAsia is taking "strong corrective action" at IAA, expects it to break even by the end of the year and meet its payments to the parent company, it said. It expects PAA to reach profitability in the fourth quarter. It plans initial public offerings of both associates in 2017.
Not all analysts, however, are shrugging off the carrier's potential negatives. AllianceDBS cut its target price to 1.80 ringgit from 2.30 ringgit.
"AirAsia's depreciation policies seem aggressive vis-à-vis its peers," Tan Kee Hoong, an analyst at AllianceDBS, said in a note Tuesday, citing higher figures for aircraft's useful life and residual value. "This distorts earnings quality, and could lead to future losses when the aircraft are eventually disposed."
Tan is also concerned that AirAsia, which this week was named the world's best budget airline by Skytrax for its seventh straight year, may be propping up the bottomline with unsustainable interest income from amounts due from its associates and joint ventures. But even then, Tan is sticking with a Hold call on the stock.
AirAsia is just the latest in a string of companies targeted by extremely negative independent research reports. Often, other analysts note that these reports contain no new information, but the stocks generally drop anyway.
Singapore-listed Noble Group's shares are down as much as 40 percent from their February peak before research firm Iceberg Research published a series of anonymously written reports attacking the company's accounting practices. In 2012, Carson Block – the short-seller who founded research firm Muddy Waters – issued an attack on Olam; its share price is still down around 17 percent from its levels before that report.
Source : CNBC
r°Moi
You compare what r°Moi has posted on 14-6-15 to the AirAsia management statement today... you will know r°Moi has full grasp of the so called issues raised by CMT
Posted by r°Moi > Jun 14, 2015 11:54 AM | Report Abuse X
......The June 10 report questioned the airline’s “accounting, profit generation, cash-flow issues, leverage and group structure,” GMT Research’s founder Gillem Tulloch said in an e-mail Friday
Based solely in this...
"accounting......... group structure,”
GMT could well be taking issue with AirAsia that IAA and PAA results (losses) are not taken into account in AirAsias results...
GMT could well be contending that IAA and PAA should be treated as subsidiaries not associates ... arguing that AirAsia has control of these companies even though it has just forty over %.. based on.. well.. these companies bear the name AirAsia, using AirAsias systems, Tony is key... blah blah blah and all that, as such... should bear the full brunt of their losses..
“accounting, profit generation,
CMT could well be contending that AirAsia is generating higher income/profit by over charging its associates on leasing of aircrafts...
These are just r°Moi takes on CMTs thoughts which r°Moi don't think proper on CMTs part....
2015-06-17 20:37