Hi Fabien,

To be honest I haven't looked at LCTITAN closely ever since I saw that their IPO was priced too high. I usually wait for companies to perform for a few years to get more clarity on their business strategy, advantages and growth prospects.

I did drive by their plant in pasir gudang, I thought that their space was limited and not so easy to grow in size and efficiency. Their plant turnover for maintenance was a bit slow for the size, and I felt their feedstock source would have difficulty in hedging and planning prices properly.

Other than that your guess is as good as mine. I don't even know who their end customers are ( Korea local?) So I wouldn't know much.

Sometimes I wish all annual reports are written similar to Berkshire, less pretty pictures and filler info, more info on what they have done to the business, the thought process behind it, the challenges they are facing and what they are doing about it. More pertinent information I guess. You basically have to start everything in reverse i.e. from the major shareholders, notes on the financial statements and backward to analyze properly what it going on...

>>>
Phillip, i bet you have done your comparison between PCHEM and LCTITAN of which you choose the former. Mind to shed some light on your choice?

Hi teoct, to be honest, my belief is a government that governs least, governs best. It is up to others to decide if their margin of safety is in owning many homes opposed to bonds or equities. I would not like to force people into telling them what they can or cannot buy.

I think those who know their investments best whether homes, shares or bonds should stick to it. I wouldn't want the government telling me that I can only buy shariah compliant stocks, just as I wouldn't want government to tell me what kind of house I can own.

AEON perpetuity bond sounds good. I'll look into it.

Thanks!

I would love to have adult discussion, but one "party" keeps assuming I have a bone to pick with him. At least in official page, if he comments too far, call all report for abuse and remove his posts.

I "invested" in forex in the 90's, never again. Zero sum games are stupid. Malaysia almost went bankrupt betting against George Soros in '97. I almost did too.

Landed properties I only need 1 to live in. Buying more is just greedy and denying another family a roof over their heads. Housing speculation is unnecessary, and selling, maintaining and servicing a house is very irritating for an old man like me.

Name me one high grade bond that performed better than PCHEM, QL and TOPGLOV since 2010. With the share splits and dividend yield. I'd look into it.

The best investment I think it's still equities. Question is what equity has lower risk ( compared to bonds) and better growth opportunities...

Other than it is a storage company that charges on flat rate similar to yinson with a good growing profit with exposure to PIC I have totally no idea. I like how the rates are standardized with no relation to oil price per barrel (as compared to the negotiations of bumi armada and sapura), but I guess it will continue to do well in the future, it is in a niche market after all.

Hmm that is probably true. But there is also usable and important information, and unlikely black swan events.

Risks are everywhere. If I take into account ALL pertinent risks, I would probably see shadows behind every curtain.

Luckily my wife is a trained actuarist. She has guided me into learning how to evaluate risks. Which she has earned her chocolate and flowers this year.

For me, I understand there is no actual way to mitigate risks. That is why I wait for quarterly reports to show me what the business is doing and how I should respond.

At least I still have QL, Topglov, Yinson and NYSE:STNE to fall back on. Although everyone keeps telling me to sell my stocks because it is far too expensive.

But I keep asking myself, sell it and buy what?

That is what the university economists tell you when they invent terms like beta and alpha and R.

Jeff bezos 99% networth is in one stock. Amazon.
Warren buffett 99% networth is in one stock. Berkshire.
Bill gates 99% networth is in one stock. Microsoft.
John D Rockefeller 99% networth was in one stock. Standard oil.
Andre Carnegie 99% networth was in one stock. It became US steel.

The fact is, they say that volatility equals risk. And the best way to fight risk is to diversify into multiple stocks.

I am of the firm belief that your BIGGEST risk is in not knowing your investments. If you know your investments enough to weigh opportunity costs, you will by nature gravitate to the investment that makes the most bang for buck.

If you dont know your investments well enough, it is true what you say risktransformer, it is definitely better to just buy the index or basket of funds and invest in the overall growth of malaysia. Hopefully we can find one where the asset management costs is below 0.04% management fees, no liquidation cost. I dont think there exists one in malaysia.

>>>

When u compare your PCHEM investment with stockraider's INSAS, u think u r minimizing risk but from the way u keep on compounding your investments in the same few stocks.... u r actually increasing your risks whenever u top up your investments.

titus, 50% is from petronas and 50% is from saudi. crude oil.

Saudi only reserve the right to sell more to PIC. Up to 70% if they want to.

Think of it this way. black oil from the ground you dig up is basically unusable.

You need to refine it then got use.

Saudi is smart because it realize petronas is far more efficient than saudi in managing its refining plants and process than saudi refiners. And most of all PIC is closer to its customers in SEA. So that's why they reserve the right to make more money.

The reason why this is important is because crude oil won't explode. After refining it becomes jetfuel(kaboom),kerosene(kabummm), Ron95(boommshakakaka), diesel, naphta, etc etc. These can go kaboom. So it is better to produce nearest to the major growing population centers. (asia and china and india) to reduce risk.

Thats why I think PIC is a gamechanger. It will be the cheapest production center this side of SEA, with the fastest population growth ever. Its basically a guaranteed revenue and earnings for years to come (if no nasty surprise la boom boom kabooom) with 50% earnings of it going to retirees like ppteh and me in dividends.

God I love non-taxable income!

Speaking of which, you need to support Calvin Tan. He showed us the way, god save his black soul!

If christian, attend church and pray for him. If not christian, attend once just for kicks and donate for him.

titus! That is exactly how I started. And it is the smart way to do it. Don't listen to any sifus, make your own decision and dip only, don't need to go crazy all in. The best is if you like the stock, understand more about it. if the quarterly report is good. Buy more. slow and steady, no need to sailang. As long as you are right, no need to be so kancheong. There are many quarters left until RAPID goes full run and production goes all out. Then you can smile big big. I spent 10 years buying QL since 2009. I expect I'd probably be spending many years more buying PCHEM.

However....

There is the other material list(from annual report), where the T&C goes badly and the entire PIC goes out in a big ball of fire. It could happen and it would be a huge disaster for a 27B USD investment. Poof. But chances are low la. Nothing in investing is guaranteed.

qqq3 - you do realize that PCHEM just went from 67bil market cap to 71 bil market cap right? How would I even be able to start a bull run. Must be the fake photo i'm using borrowing choivo name.

4 billion in market value increase would be like buying 8 500 million penny stock companies. But the share price doesn't matter. What matters is what happens 2 weeks from now when the earnings come out and you have an idea what is happening with the company.

like I said. PPHB is a good company. will definitely do well in the future.

edited title. this is not an insas thread. please stop posting insas here and polluting pchem discussion. please post elsewhere.

No one wants to declare any war with you. No one cares about you or your existence. No one is interested in replying your message. I think thanks to you from now on all further blogs I do I will disallow posting of replies.
Very low class speculator. Totally zero temperament to be an investor. I highly doubt you invested 200k in INSAS. Since when is investing a competition?

Bye kid. I will stop replying you at all from now on.

Can you just go away? Please start your own thread so people can reply to you. You are just drowning other people's post and posting recycled information just for your own enjoyment.

3iii! I beg to differ. I sold my PBB at 25. Haha.

PCHEM i bought start from 8.15-8.33. Today it is 8.87. Do I sell with 5% gain?

Why sell at all? Buy and forget? No. Buy and read every quarterly report.

For short term trading, it is a very careful strategy that needs to be micromanaged. I'm sure steven is very good at what he does. I wish him all the best. I put my trading philosophy in the too hard pile almost 19 years now thanks to halim bin saad and renong and aokam perdana. And it hasn't been for the lack of trying.

I just realized that trading strategies seem more akin to buying black on the roulette table and it working out ten times in a row. But when the red color comes, there is just no way to predict this. Which is even funnier when the baccarat tables start showing me the previous results of banker/player like it means anything.

I finally found out that short term trading depends on psychology (thats what momentum is). Herd psychology is by definition irrational. How to make money from crazy people?

I just gave up and decided buying businesses on the possibility that great businesses will make more money over time than lousy business makes more rational sense.

hi felicity,thanks for catching my error. I meant to say it is 30%+, or (2,821,124) as per 2017 entire operating expenses costs, the biggest and most major expense in its operation (8.3 billion). And something that is totally uncontrollable and unproducable by air asia , as hedging on the jet fuel spot futures can only go so far.

Note that the net profit for Air Asia in 2017 is 1,571,374. a 15-20% swing in jet fuel prices can hit the bottomline of Air Asia very heavily. something that we smile when crude oil prices is low, but we will rue when we realize it will be difficult to pass the costs down easily.

dead cat bounce. Entire bursa market is undervalued. Bursa has been laughing stock for 4 years, so now that foreign investors fleeing from usa/china tradewar are investing in more stable markets like malaysia (after election, while other SEA incoming elections). You could throw a brick at any stock now and get 10-30 % short term.

The game starts after quarterly results out. That's when you see the trading stops and the investing begins.

Personally, no one knows what will happen tomorrow. But what I can assure to retirees is that PCHEM is the safest stock you can buy right now. It's gain may not be as exciting as buying derivatives and options, but I can guarantee you can sleep well at night.

5-10 years from now you can also sleep well at night.

Well, if you already knew news is going to be good whether or not this QR results come out good or bad, it would be pointless to wait. I didn't.

titus: you crazy ah? If penny stocks probably la. This is a 68 billion dollar company. my 1.4 million stocks barely make any dent la. EPF sells more in 1 day than my entire exposure haha.

But i must admit, Malaysia market now is so undervalued after 4 years of recession, that almost any stock (almost) will have a dead cat bounce.

the real game is when all the quarterly reports start coming out every quarter. That is when the trading ends and the investing part comes.

TM, MYEG, gamuda and bstead is not good stocks. Never have been. Never will. Those are companies which are only based in Malaysia and can only compete locally. Political stocks, construction stocks that can only compete locally I don't really see any point in following long term.

For me, the stocks that I bought and held for 10 years now since 2009 was QL, topglove, pbb and YINSON. Those are Malaysian companies which I saw growth and are competing regionally and internationally. I have bought and held these stocks, and have been average buying continuously after every quarter for 40 quarters.

Obviously you need some technical knowledge if you want to buy, you need to buy at a fair price. Like right now ql and NESTLE is pe50, true but it is unfair to assume that just because the price now is high didn't mean you will lose money.

Just ask Amazon. Facebook. Coca cola in the 90's. There are exceptions to every rule. Buy high can go higher, just as buy low can go lower.

I'm sure trading will make money. But thinking that only good price to enter is a dangerous consideration if you don't look to the business itself first.

If we just look at simple price movements, sapura:
2017 was rm2.20(adjusted)
2018 was rm0.65
Today it is rm0.30 cents.

Is this a good time to enter? If simply based on price momentum sapura seems to be all time cheap. Buy!

But if you look closer, when a company starts printing free share issues to "borrow" money, and use it to pay their billions of dollars of debt instead of growing their business, I would say this is the most dangerous time in its history as a company.

Trading can definitely make small money. But I doubt anyone will have the temperament (or the balls of platinum) to sailang millions of dollars into sapura sell house sell family.

Warren buffet put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Berkshire.
Chia song kun put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Ql.
Bill gates put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Microsoft.
I put 90% of my networth into 4 stocks. In 10 years holding and building my exposure ql, topglov, pbb and YINSON they have done wonders for me.


Which is better in the long run? I may be wrong you may be right, but I'm still trying to find a short term trading sifu who has a portfolio over 10 years and growing consistently 20% compounded average yearly who is willing to show his portfolio gains and strategy for scrutiny.

Lionel Messi track record still far better than those 17 year old Argentinian kids from God knows where.

I believe a good entry is never as important as picking the good stock at a fair price.

Why? Even if you have the best entry you will never sailang. It's not feasible because best entry is usually for lowest point of a stock in its history, meaning problems in the horizon. Optimism in the face of problems is admirable, but usually fatal.

Picking a good stock(at a fair price) you are able to sailang, because you are participating in the growth and success of a company without any stormcloud in the horizon. Sure it will come, but if is not there yet, why be pessimistic? Pessimism when things are looking very good is a sad way to live.

Having said that, it is almost impossible to buy great companies at liquidation prices, you always have to pay a premium for quality. Nestle,dutchlady, topglove, Hong Leong, QL, yinson, PCHEM, hartalega, are all companies that have returned multibaggers throughout the years but have always been under the radar of short term traders. Thank God.

I wouldn't have it any other way.

I think a big misconception is also that playing stock market is easy.
Buy and hold and forget what you are doing!
Just buy special indicators based on modified stochastics and moving average, buy when signal is right and uptrend detected, sure win!

Warren advocates long term investing yes, but not buy and forget. Monitor quarterly reports to see how the business of performing, then make your next choice.

One plays on psychology the other plays on business results. Both need careful study.

Stock market is not for the lazy. Actually, nothing worthwhile is.

Author is very right saying we should have enough information at our control which includes technical and fundamental.

But I think the more important ingredient is how to build up your second level thinking (Howard marks) of removing unnecessary information, trading a detour understanding of the information given, and making the right choice.

I take umbrage with this conception. Based on very long experience I have realize this to be false. Short term is subject to far more uncertainty than long term.

Let me talk football terms. Which is harder to do and achieve success for the club?

Offer Lionel Messi a massive contract when he had won a balon de oro, most goals scored in a season a few times and go big with him as your most expensive signing with a long term contract?

Or offer a few undersized kids needing growth hormones but with potential in Argentina a contract to play in Liga? How many actually turn out? If you bring in a hundred of those kids with 1% of Messi salary, you probably won't even know their names, much less how they will turn out tomorrow.

In stock terms, if you hold NESTLE long enough, your risk and uncertainty factor inherently become less, because your earnings and profits have far outweighed any incoming risk. In the long term, if you held nestle long enough, even if meteor hits Malaysia and destroys entire population and all factories, you would still be up on dividends gained.

I think short term trading has far greater uncertainty and risk compared to long term. I keep trying to find someone to do the Warren buffet 10 year bet between active investing and passive investing, to no avail.

>>>
As we know, long term investment will be subject to more uncertainty factor compare to short term. This is for sure.

I'm sure trading stocks can make money. But I think the reason why it is rare(almost never) to hear famous short term traders over a long period being successful as compared to longer term value investors (Howard marks, Peter lynch, walter Schloss etc etc) I think the reason is simple. George Soros is not a short term momentum trader. He is a contrarian trader if I ever saw one.

Almost all momentum trading is based on capital protection first, earnings second. By default you can't put more money into play, because of the inherent risk of not knowing deeply the asset you are trading. And to diversify the risk ( I never understand this part), they have to put money into more and more stocks they don't understand which they only analyze based on momentum charts ( things that has happened before) to guess what will happen tomorrow.

To be honest, most of the trader friends I know, they do not go into big active fund management. Majority of them trade small amounts. The biggest I know trades with 10% maximum exposure per trade aof a group fund of 10 million. He has averaged 10-15% over 8 years. The amount of stress he gets to achieve that level of success is tremendous. He does not trade bursa.

And Steven is exactly right. The biggest cause of fund failure is when they forget that they are doing speculation and trading activities and suddenly convince themselves they are doing long term investing halfway through their trading. Then they chase bad trades with more money and it becomes a ball of fire.

So far I have yet to find an official fund manager in Malaysia with big fund size (assets bigger than 500 million) successfully using short term trading methodology as a way of investing with a success rate 5-10 years+. Any sifus who firmly believe in this strategy out there making trading gains with big sums of money over long periods of time out there?

Oh, I see. Well that is still based on general public knowledge then. That's fine.

Everyone who spends a few hours on the internet can find the same knowledge. That is public. I was thinking you were meant EPF has material information on the quarterly results before it is packaged and announced by Bursa.

I think that is fair. Everyone has the same knowledge. Interpretation of the information however differs from individual to individual. It's funny though each time EPF sells their shares now, the price has gone up.

Meaning there are buyers who see the same thing I do.

Yeah Stockraider, can enough? Everyday post same post. Are you trying to brainwash people or something? Please go other thread and post your insas Hathaway. I think everyone here gets the message and those who want to buy already done so. I won't put a single cent in your stock choices. Can you go find other people to disturb? You more lohsoh than choivo.

Even Leno INSAS bull cannot tahan you...

If you think there is no risk premium in buying airline stocks, you are either joking or crazy...

>>>>
Therefore, in Buffettology, no risk premium is applied.


also, malaysia 10 year bond rate is at 4%-5%, so anything you buy better do than this. You can't apply US government bond rates in emerging markets in my opinion.
>>>>
Warren uses long-term government bond rate as the discount rate. Here, we use 3.5% only.

How about BJTOTO, I dont think you can buy toto with credit. :) Isn't that an all cash business?

Is that a good business? Not necessarily.

I think author forgot to mention that until recently, Warren buffett has been avoiding airplane stocks like the plague.

Only recently has berkshire bought delta and southwest airlines due to massive consolidation in the industry to make it attractive.

The main problem with airlines is the fact that you can lose an entire plane, your business, factory and production area which is worth hundreds of millions of dollars in one single flight, with no idea what happened. The nasty surprise can be very nasty and will hit the company earnings for multiple quarters.

On top of that the main raw material is a very expensive ingredient which is subject to change on an immediate basis and affects bottomline on a huge basis, due to the fact that it is 70%+ of entire AirAsia costs, its major expenses.This is also a nasty surprise, should fuel prices spike suddenly. These 2 costs are not something that you can pass through to the customer.

Just these 2 surprises is the main reason why so many airline stocks have gone bankrupt throughout the years.

Buying airline stocks is not for the faint of heart.

Having said that, AA is a fantastic company that is the best performer in its entire industry, and is always searching for new ways to monetize the fact millions of people spend hours sitting in their planes with nothing to do and no where to go. I'm surprised Tony hasn't thought of starting up flight casinos in international air space for long haul flights.

It's just that you need to know the underlying risk in buying airline stocks. You cannot just see the happy times when all making money without knowing your risk potential for loss when bad things happen.

One big metric which you don't put in your thesis is the number of mechanical delays, failures, loss of life and crashes AA versus the competitors and industry. This is important because you need to realize the bigger scope of business of AA, the higher the rate of risk of dangerous, company affecting damage.

Just ask MAS airlines. How much was the reputation loss after MH370? How big was the drop in passenger turnover after the crash? How much many to save it?

Thoughts to ponder.

sentiment and perception is true, but pinned by earnings and fundamentals. Short time crazy wife, long term good cooking and childbearing and house cleaning and clothes washing.

So far, that would be construed as insider information which is illegal and punishable by law. I have no proof the EPF knows more about material public information or has insider connections with PCHEM directors (which from all accounts have a track record of reliability, multiple other directorships in internationals companies like AIA etc, and are very ethical). You may be perfectly right, I have no way of knowing.

I choose to believe in the more plausible action, that the EPF is governed by a big group of fund managers who have different KPI and opportunity costs/risks. And also it takes a long time to unload big block of shares without causing undue stress and hitting limit down.

In the end, I think PCHEM has a very viable business, and a strong core growing moat. As long as the value of tomorrow is more than today, and I am using cash to buy the stock (instead of margin or contra), I find that I can wait longer periods of time.

Most importantly, my family currently has around 1.4m shares in PCHEM. at 29 cents of yearly dividend, that should come to quite a nice tidy sum each year to buy PCHEM stock at lower prices if things go well, and have capital gains increases if it goes up higher.

We shall see how the quarterly report goes.

I may be a bit too excitable recently, but I think you should trust me. PCHEM is solid.

>>>>>
Usually these multi-billion dollar institutions (including EPF) have advance information about any public listed company several months b4 the quarterly report comes out.... that's y we can't figure out y they r selling (but they already know everything ahead of others who have to depend on the quarterly reports).

I think you can do it online from here and mail them your documents. I'm not sure. It's probably the same as owning TD in USA, just submit your w8-ben form and you should be good to go.

I did mine in Singapore, I have a sg account with standard chartered, the first bank to open in Sabah.

Leno is a very smart man! everyday keep posting all forum telling everyone to buy, got point kah? If people want to buy let them buy la, they want to sell up to them la! Important is in i3 is to share information. Got wrong or right pulak in sharing information?

if only Leno become CEO of INSAS, INSAS sure CAAAAAWANNNNNTEEEEEEKKK!

LENO CAAAAAWANNNNNTEEEEEEKKK!!!

Hi Leno, I do not buy penny stocks. I only own 5 stocks which I know well and can monitor properly. In my view I don't think the future of INSAS will be good, it may be a trading stock, but I no longer speculate on trades anymore since 2000.

Good luck Leno, you make 30% profit! Good job!

Qqq3, that is a bit under the belt...

Please refrain from hurtful remarks like that. My post here is about pchem and it's pro and cons.

If possible let's all stick to that so we can gather concise information instead.

This apabagus is one of the reasons I write my blog. Just because you own multiple stocks doesn't mean you are a good investor. You are just someone who doesn't know how to value your stocks. If you know your stocks well, a concentrated investment portfolio is clearly the best method of investing.

Gambling different story la, if you don't how if black or red will turn up in roulette wheel, you need to diversify your bets so your chances of failure is lower.

INVESTING is not gambling. If you know that a stock well enough that it will perform 70-90% accuracy, then you should put your entire net worth into it.

I did.

* Apabagus is another troll. Almost ALL of his 200 comments on i3 us negative troll remarks making fun of others with no investment philosophy. Except 1. He thinks with the introduction of GST our klci is 1600, with SST is 2060. And mark his words, by July 2018, klci will hit 1750.

Still waiting.

I wonder what stocks he bought?

There are too many reasons to worry about why other people are selling their stocks. What is important is the material information from the Feb quarterly report. If it is good, many people will buy more. If it is bad, the evaluate the reason why.

For myself, I welcome the chance to buy pchem stocks at such a low price. If I can buy it for rm3 I'll be even happier to sell my other positions and go all in on pchem. 10% dividend on a growth stock with roe 19% is unheard of.

Wishful thinking though.

Ah I see. For that, my only response as a concentrated long term investor is to buy only on the quarterly report and monitor how things are going every 3 months. If the story doesn't change, then you continue buying. If the story changes, then you reevaluate.

This is how I have been investing these past 10 years. I guess no matter what you just need to be vigilant.

I'm willing to cut PCHEM some rope because of it's good management and so far they have not been deviating from their business strategy. But so far I find that their business advantage is such that an idiot nephew could run the business with relative success.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp

The very fact that you use words like noob and troll remark and no interest in learning new things tells me you are either in your twenties or early thirties.

Millennials. A few years and they think they have seen everything in bursa.

I'm old enough to remember trading options on bursa.

Did you know that?

Who say I'm flaunting? I'm just stating a fact. This is what I earned. And this is how I earned them.

And the question you should be asking me is, since 2009 how many times I cut loss? How big is my investment size? How small did I start from?
Why I keep buying the same stock every quarter top up for 10 years?

How many people you know buy the same 4 stocks and average every 3 months for years? And not sell out and take small gain?

You know nothing, but presume to comment so much. Maybe you should be the one to be humble?

How many times you cut loss in your investments? What is your compounded gains in the last 10 years?

Like icon8888 maybe I can challenge you also, show your portfolio and your investment gains.

I did.

You should read more apabagus, it might do your investing some good.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp

I have been in the stock market since late 80s'. So I think I know what I'm talking about.

Which single stock? QL since 2009? Topglove since 2010? Public bank since 2012? YINSON since 2013?

Why would I buy multiple many stocks, buy 50 counters with 5% net worth?

I practise concentrated investing. I have a few good ideas, and put big sum of money in them.

They work. I share. You may use them if you like. You don't have to comment.

I have no qualms with gambling in genting, I do it once in a while. It's no issue to me.

I have a problem when people gamble, but call it investment.

Hi dragonslayer,

I am a retiring member of the Rotary club in Sabah. I believe in giving back to society, and most of all I believe if more retail investors are educated properly on the concept of investing versus gambling they will have a better future in Malaysia. I hope for that fact because the more educated retail investors we have, the better our local bursa stock market. And the better run our bursa, the more good companies will list here instead of elsewhere, and the more dividends and profits will be returned to our malaysians so we can spend on our childrens future.

I share my knowledge because I am retiring soon (next few years actually) and I hope retirees will not be fooled into losing their shirts in blind investments (like sslee and his xinguan, KYY in his JAKS, and all those investors in Renong and SUMATEC) but have a clearer perspective on what the stock market really is:

AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHAREHOLDERS TO JOIN IN THE PROFITS AND GROWTH OF A GOOD COMPANY, FOR THE GOOD OF THE PUBLIC.

I look to the earnings of a company to benefit me long term, not to the share price swings, which I cannot predict and benefit from.

This investment has worked for me. And my goal is to leave my writings for posterity, so that future young investors can learn from my mistakes and not repeat them. (halim bin saad is still evil.)

>>>>>>>
Aiyo...gaduh lagi...why always the same group of ppl like to gaduh one...what you all want to prove...lol ..who can be the StockGod kah...aiyoyo...mau invest..invest lah...why must write blog...I cant figure out any reason...other than to promote own stock...lol...aiyoyo...kikiki

To be honest, no one here knows why EPF sold PCHEM. and since they have a few hundred million shares anyway, it doesn't really matter. Everything else is conjecture.

All we should care about and think about is whether or not PCHEM will do better in the future compared to today.

In 2010, IPO listed PCHEM with a valuation of 4.4 billion USD (around 14 billion back then). Today in 2019 it is worth 68 billion ringgit.

I would hold on all speculation and wait to see what the results for the latest QR will be before making am investment decision.

Speculators buy carimin and sapura and naim and etc without caring what the qr reports are saying.

Investors buy after understanding the latest quarterly report to see how the business is doing, then they make their decision.

I see. On what basis do you make this claim? I'm very interested to learn more.

From what I can see, ever since they spin off of petchem into bursa listed company, they have been consistently paying 50% of dividends from their earnings.

I'm starting to get worried now :)

Can you provide us concrete proof that petchem had done such a thing before and will do such a thing in the future?

I say this because a big part of my networth had been invested in petchem, so any material information from i3 community would be very helpful!

Cheers and happy CNY risktransforner!

I leave that to investors like sslee to find out.

When you have 2 billion retained earnings every year, you can do many things, and when you have 6 billion in cash, many deals can be made. You need to be aware petchem not doing entire PIC( it's integrated, see) meaning they are only doing the petrochemical processing plants. And that is also a JV job with aramco to share the costs.

If not profitable you think aramco want to share costs?

This year we are expecting 4.7 billion in earnings versus 4.1 billion in earnings last year.

With pangerang online, isononanol plant online and better turnaround utilization the next few years ( plant utilization is already at 93% which is better than world standard of 85%), I believe in 2-4 years time pchem can hit 5-6 billion in earnings. 2.5 - 3 billion of which will be given out as dividends, meaning

If you buy now at 8.5, you will look forward to (possibility but with high probability), dividend of 35-38 cents, more than current 29 cents.
This will be around 4.5% dividend yield when pangerang comes online, not to mention capital gains.

Meaning in 10 years you would have earned 45% if your outlay costs in dividends alone ( if all goes well, as usual).

But I believe in petronas chemicals. It has the resources, management ability and high net profit to continuously grow here in Asia, India and Africa market, which will be the biggest population growth in the future compared to USA and Europe.

I look forward to the day petchem becomes a 80 billion USD (from 18) international company doing revenue of 10 billion (from 4.5) USD revenue a year and 2 billion(from 1) USD in earnings.

Impossible or probable? No one knows. I'm along for the ride, and will be monitoring the quarterly reports consistently.

Notice how I don't care what the share price is in the short term?

For reference ( this is how I value my stocks),

Dowdupont( Dow chemical merged with Dupont chemicals) is the biggest petrochemical company usa. Is market cap is 123 billion USD(500 bil rm), has revenue of 86 billion usd a year, and net profit of 4 billion USD a year. Profit margin 4.47%.

BASF is the world's second biggest petrochemical company germany. It is valued at
61 billion euros, it does 73 billion euros in revenue, with 7 billion net profit, margin at 9.43%.

Shin-etsu chemical Japan is valued at 4 trillion yen. It does 13 billion yen in revenue per year, net income of 2 billion yen, and is the most efficient at 18% profit margin.

These are all companies that have hit terminal growth and are now growing only with the population increase, with no big growth triggers in place.

PCHEM I believe is in growth stage even right now, with a huge new profit of 25% consistently for more than 5 years, no debt, efficient growth.

Pangerang is a very good start. I look forward to 5-10 years from now.

Imagine if they took on more debt, and expanded more aggressively. If they took market share by reducing their profit margin I believe they can take a huge piece of the international market in the future.

Good morning, appreciate if all can keep comments on the viability of PCHEM as a growth stock and long term pro and cons of holding PCHEM. Please start a chat somewhere else if nothing concrete or useful to add. Readers will be very irritated if all they see is arguments over nothing, and stockraider repeating same argument ad nauseum.

FYI, just in case anyone is wondering in why my father in law agreed in buying PCHEM, please note one interesting fact.

PCHEM has almost zero debt. Yes no current debt, no long term problem to worry about. No preferred shares hanging over your head, no warrants, no esos.

And this with a multinational group of directors and the best bumiputera talent money can buy. If you have a really smart Malay friend( and I have many good friends), chances are he works for petronas.

It has 8 billion shares. That's it. No more. No less.

Listed company. No hidden agenda like stockraider says. Clear annual reports and governance. It's actually worth more than petronas dagangan, which tells you the future of PCHEM.

I believe PCHEM at 17 billion USD cap, 19 billion revenues, 4 billion earnings has much room to grow.

A few simple questions to ponder,

Why did solar industry die the moment no more FIT was announced?

Why is no one taking up the net energy metering on the industrial side?

If "green" energy is sustainable, why did FIT in Thailand and many other countries fall apart? Why did Sarawak not participate in feed in tariff?

Why does SolarCity and many solar companies keep going bankrupt?

Why did the biomass industry in Sabah and Sarawak for the moment people realized there was value in fruit bunches?

And the main one, is cypark business sustainable if the government stopped supporting the seda programs today? Will it make financial sense to general industry?

I think it's more of a case where they can't sell sapura because it's underwater, they can't sell Armada because it's underwater, they can't sell fgv because it was making losses, and they can't a lot of "institutional" shares because it was loss making last year. So only way is to hold and wait.

What can they sell? PCHEM. Because it was profitable last year and can sell to cover the dividend payment to pay for epf savings this year.

Go figure.