First you say don't see rear view mirror. Then you say at 1996 dialog is good.

So is it reverse it forward, which is it?

Most importantly, in between the lean years and good years did Calvin buy?

Answer: No!

But now suddenly dig up shareholder purchases from 2015, when PANTECH did its worse and stock price tank.

But when stock price tank, did tan Ang ang but with his own hard earn money?

No, instead he take advantage of the company and do... ESOS. Why don't buy off the market at fair price? Why need to take advantage of shareholder and buy it cheap from company?

This is what Warren buffet had to say about companies like this, from their latest annual report.

" That brand of earnings is a far cry from that frequently touted by Wall Street bankers and corporate CEOs. Too often, their presentations feature “adjusted EBITDA,” a measure that redefines “earnings” to exclude a variety of all-too-real costs.

For example, managements sometimes assert that their company’s stock-based compensation shouldn’t be counted as an expense. (What else could it be – a gift from shareholders?) And restructuring expenses? Well, maybe last year’s exact rearrangement won’t recur. But restructurings of one sort or another are common in business – Berkshire has gone down that road dozens of times, and our shareholders have always borne the costs of doing so."

- Warren buffett

Do you count ESOS as a expense? Especially when they dilute company shares ( 1.3 million+ in this year alone) at 0.415 when it is worth 0.6 in the open market.

This is not reported as an expense in your earnings, but who pays for the difference? A gift from the shareholders like Calvin tan?

Thank you Calvin.

YOU ARE SO GENEROUS!

SO GENEROUS TO GIVE OUT FREE MONIES WHETHER FOR OVERPERFORMANCE OR UNDERPERFORMANCE.

So many unrelated causality it's not even funny. Calvin tan back to his old tricks again trying to get people to buy his promoted shares by biased views and no relation to financial results.

Untrue.

If they all need PANTECH, why is their net profit 7+% ? And their sales have barely grown over 5 year period?

In 2017 they did 615 million. This year this will do 600 million. In 2016 the do 480 million. 2015 they do 513 million. Sadly All at below 8% margins. And they give out 40% earnings as dividends.

How to grow retained earnings if every year make 40 million but I give out 17 million?

That does not sound like a wonderful hidden gem of a company.

That sounds like a average company that has share price of 0.70 in 2017, 0.63 cents in 2018, and 0.60 cents in 2019 reverting to mean.

Same thing that is happening in NAIM, azrb, carimin and hibiscus.

Average company at fair price in 2017.
Average company at wonderful prices in 2018.
Average company at average price in 2019.

Do you think average company can outperform?

Fat kid suddenly winning 100m school dash?

Good luck.

What does chicken got problem mean? I just came back from tuaran site upgrading t&c recently. I don't see any chicken problem...

Can elaborate supersoya?

Then like that... My TP today is rm9.3

20 million revenue on 71k profit is good? Total for this financial 4q year is 80+ million revenue and negative 3 million in earnings.

Casino INVESTMENT= casino returns.

How is that a good QR?

But to be honest Calvin why do you even bother buying PANTECH, just look at PCHEM instead.

Forget the share price, forget the extra zeros. Forget the market cap.

Study and understand the business first.

Pantech pays out 40% of Pat, pchem pays out 50%.

Pantech growth 5 years averaged out is shoddy. Only this financial year with pic construction Pantech making profit ( at low net margins around 7% due to competition).

PCHEM is growing hugely 5 years even without PIC. What happens to PCHEM when it does get completed? It has 25% net profit which is sustainable because of its production moat for many years since it's spin-off in 2010.

Ask yourself one simple question, who makes more money? Developer or sub-contractor? And after developer gets it's Jewel up and running with 30% increased capacity and new business units like isononanol processing plant ( first in South East Asia)? How big will the growth of the "developer" be?

This is what I mean between buying fair companies with wonderful prices and wonderful companies for fair prices.

And after all that is said and done? It is only selling for pe 14.

*Oops I'm sorry, ever since I bought my block the share price has jumped, it is now up from 67 billion to 72 billion, pe is 15. Still worth it.
That could buy you like 10 PANTECH with change for kopi tarik.

But add 3.3 mtpa ( million tons per annum) from it's current 10.8 mtpa production? That's an easy 30% guaranteed increase in production and thus earnings.

You want a Chun Chun call in O&G that can last 10 years unlike all your other stock calls? This is it.

Carimin has already fallen short.
Hibiscus is also falling short.
You bullish plays into DAYANG, NAIM, azrb etc etc will fall short in the next few quarters.

You want to practice true value investing? ( Tell me what investing is not based on future value versus today)


Buy wonderful companies at fair prices.

The q in Pantech management can only go so far. After pic is done, it's performance will only be on that level. If it was going to be successful, it would have diversified into the right industries and grown it's moat a long time ago. It's basically a company that fights only on price with no vertical integration or special innovation in it's horizon.

If course I may be totally wrong and Calvin may be totally right.

So I reserve the right to smirk art him 5 years from now, and I give him the opportunity to laugh at me if QL market cap drops to 500 million and Pantech goes up to 11 billion 5 years from now.

Your Pantech

Pantech Group Holdings Bhd is engaged in investment holding and provision of management services. The company has three operating segments: Trading; Manufacturing and Investment holding. It derives most of its revenues from the Trading segment. The Trading segment is engaged in trading, supply and stocking of high pressure seamless and specialized steel pipes, fittings, flanges, valves and other related products for use in the oil and gas. The Manufacturing segment is engaged in manufacturing and supply of butt-welded carbon steel fittings, stainless steel, and alloy pipes, fittings and related products, as well as milling, machining and welding of tube and pipe fitting. The Investment holding segment is engaged in investment holding, property investment and management service.

I lazy to show you Pantech financials, you can see how much of an "equivalent" it had grown since 2012 until today.

Phillips 66 also in 2012 you can compare.

Then you know what moats are.

Hidden gem? What is so hidden about Swarovski Stones? Nice sounding name?

Try starting your own chicken and egg farm and see? See how long you can last. Consolidation for this industry has been happening for a very long while. Only the smart and integrated survive. Those who have tried scratch their heads why the chickens sold is far cheaper than my costs of raising it.

>>>>

Forget about chicken & egg business with no moat or barrier to entry

I really don't know who is thinking rationally or just using level 1 thinking.


* Calvin, are you seriously comparing Phillips 66 as equivalent to pantech??

Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) is a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company with a portfolio of businesses: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties. Our Company processes,
transports, stores and markets fuels and products globally. Phillips 66 Partners (NYSE: PSXP), our master limited partnership, is integral to the portfolio. The 14,600 dedicated employees of Phillips 66
are executing the strategy that has guided the Company since its creation in 2012.

Financial highlights

($MM) 2017 2016 2015
Revenue $102,354 $84,279 $98,975
Net income 5,106 1,555 4,227
Cash from operations 3,648. 2,963 5,713
Capital expenditure. 1,832 2,844 5,764
Total assets* 54,371. 51,653. 48,580


It's like comparing your pastor John in Johor bahru to pope John Paul 2nd in Rome.

Totally different industries, totally different moats, totally different levels of competence.

Suddenly an expert. Have you compared results from teoseng, cck, and other poultry and lifestock suppliers? the egg and poultry price increase reports from the federation of lifestock Farmers Malaysia (flfam)?
Do you follow up the mpob listed process by region monthly? Lower prices yes, but due to a bumper crop regionally? Have you looked at the total production increase by QL this quarter?

Bosses panic selling? The selling by the "bosses" to fund their foundation charity giving you mean? They still have hundreds of millions of shares which is not going anywhere (70% ownership similar to Nestle) if it was a meaningful drop I would definitely be worried. A few million ringgit here and there is chump change and you get worried? If they didn't have faith in own company why would they buy back with their own cash? They could have easily done a treasury stock buy back and achieve a bigger net effect.

Pattern of what problem? Do you mean family Mart growing much much faster than expected and already hitting break even 2 years after starting up ( and 100 million in capex costs?) Did you buy the maxincome sdn bhd ctos ssm report ( only like rm 30 or so I believe) or their ccriss ( my wife helped me access from public bank side) to read something that is very very impressive ( so impressive I bought 50k shares@ 6.25 after Christmas bonus in 2018)

2 years increasing revenue 100 million from family Mart? That growth problem you mean?

I believe that the possibility ql going to become Malaysia agribehemoth after following it and investing more in it over 10 years far more likely over the long run than a crystal ball that says the quarter will be bad.

I should keep quiet and let more bad rumors about QL float about so I can buy more at lower prices...


>>>>>>>>

24/02/2019 16:17

supersaiyan3 Few more days for QL.....

I have said this quarter will be very bad for QL. Because chicken got problems and oil palm low price.

Bosses also panic sell last two months, but look at the pattern the problem must have been solved as they are buying back.

So, be cautious but don't get too emotional, you could get burned if you are not thinking rationally.

To be honest I think they priced it too low. If you used the mental model exclusivity and social proof, if you charge rm10 people will not come BECAUSE they assume the value of the event is just rm10, therefore not worth going for.

If they charged the event as rm1000(with a discount from rm5000), I believe many more people will come, because they will believe that they will be getting an education or service that is worth rm5000 for only rm1000.

And the hosts can up the quality and give an event with paying rm1000 for.

Its like attending your children concert, it if it's rm5 you probably won't go. Buy if it is rm100, you die die also must go.

Hi Herbert Chua, may I know what is the total production capacity of of the liquid egg plant in pasir gudang?

That is where you are oh so wrong.

I have bought cheap penny shares for many years during the 90's.

And if you think that 2 dollar gain from 20 dollars is harder to get than 2 cents from 20 cents, then you really have much to learn about buying stocks.

There is no such thing as big sums and small sums in investing. The risk is the same with either amount.

Buying a rm0.20 cent share is the same as buying a rm20 one.

If it drops by half you lose both ways.

I would argue due to the concept of compounding long term of gains, it is far more important to invest properly with small sums where you cannot afford mistakes or loss of capital, than it is to invest large sums where you would already have more than enough to live a comfortable life.

But to each his own.

Losing 200k when you can ill afford it is more difficult than losing 2 million when you have millions to spare.

I speak from bitter experience.

Also Marie kondo is now officially a cult, with her own tv show exclusively on Netflix.

Hi tanleechoo,

Surprisingly enough, I have also read these books. And they add on to my mental models in thinking about investing and it's prospects.

Remember everything is related.

>>>>
the art of thinking clearly n the life changing magic of tidying ..

Topglove is 25% of world glove market.

Just because you end up buying 5 stocks doesn't mean you don't research and read in the other 2000. Oversimplification is silly.

If you run on the assumption that you can only buy 20 stocks in your lifetime, you better make sure that your investment is rock solid.

But if you are right, and it is easier to be right if you stop buying everything and choose only the wonderful companies, you will be rewarded for more than you can believe.

Put it this way, when you were in school you had like 30-40 students in class. If you could bet on which students would do well in the next exam, would you bet on the top 5 students with the best results during the last exam? Those who were the hardest working and dedicated ones?

Or would you pick all the students to do well and diversify your risks?

Or would pick the top half of the students who did reasonably well with a margin of safety?

That is what Charlie is advocating and changed the mind of Warren buffet from pure margin of safety or buying fair companies at wonderful prices to buying wonderful companies at fair prices.

Yes wonderful companies are hard to come buy, no one day it is not.

But consider this, when you do find one, you can invest big capital into that one great idea ( all your money into that one top student who did well during the last exam), knowing the chances he will do well is much higher than sharing your betting money on the middle half ( fairly smart students who can do ok).

When you have 80-99% of a sure thing, you can afford to sailang and make big money at low risk. I'm not taking free hundred ringgit, I'm talking hundreds of thousands into millions of dollars.

When you are not so sure of your investment, you will never dare to put big sums of money into a stock idea.

Just think about it: if you were sure INSAS was a wonderful company, and it will definitely go to rm3(because you think fair value is rm3), why are you buying sapura and jcy and other companies with lower opportunities? Just put all of it into INSAS and get 500% gain( from 0.60 to rm3) over 2 years.

But because you are not sure what to value, and you don't know your stock well enough, you choose to "diversify". Into sapura, etc etc etc.

Charlie munger-" diversification is a protection against ignorance.

I fully agree.

Einstein said it best, "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler."

Oversimplification = Disaster.

I believe the biggest lesson to learn in I3 is to remove yourself of basic prime concepts, and relearn and add on to your platform with updated concepts.

One bad mental model which I see on most stocks by so called analysts,

when a company is cash rich or has high NTA, the first instinct is = GOOD. SAFE COMPANY TO BUY.

I learned the hard way in 1997.

My advice is to update that mental model(2009 edition), when you approach a company with high NTA and cash rich, you first instinct should now be = BUT WHY?. That changes your prime concept into something that you will study further into instead of buy and forget.

Dear SSLee

I repeat an off repeated charlie munger and warren buffett maxim, which I recommend you reading more books ( on everything, biology, law, architecture, engineering, investing, biographies) on expanding your investing knowledge.

- "In investing, just as in baseball, to put runs on the scoreboard, one must watch the playing field, not the scoreboard."

What this means (a lesson to Calvin tan as well), if you look to the scoreboard only (share price), or the names of the players arrayed on the field, you will not have a satisfactory return long term.

you must know how the players coordinate with each other, what the injuries are on the opposition team, how tired your players are, how motivated and dedicated.

If you only know how to look at scoreboard, then you fall to the same problem all 1st level thinkers have.

another one of my mental models I use: Everyone has an angle.

Take a wary eye on the accounting reports ( they are simply processed information by the accountants based on data given by the business owners). It can be easily "cooked" to those that have a need to.

Instead, think of investing as an ecosystem, where everything is linked to each other.

when a company is cash rich, why? When a company has high net assets but inability to capitalize on them, why? When a company sells a good subsidiary to purchase nonperforming ones, why? Investing based on NTA and cash alone is similar to buying xinguan based on the assumption that they have 1 billion in cash, even as the revenues, earnings ,and industry performance is going the opposite way.

Everything is related to each other, you cannot just pick one detail out (NTA, cash holdings) and say this business will succeed. That is oversimplification doomed for failure. and stop looking at the share price alone. If a business succeeds, the share price will take care of itself.

"More commonly, the forces coming out of these one hundred (investing) models are conflicting to some extent. And you get huge, miserable tradeoffs. But if you can't think in terms of tradeoffs and recognize tradeoffs in what you're dealing with, you're a horse's patoot. You clearly are a danger to the rest of the people when serious thinking is being done. You have to recognize how these things combine. And you have to realize the truth of biologist Julian Huxley's idea that 'Life is just one damn relatedness after another.' So you must have the models, and you must see the relatedness and the effects from the relatedness." - charlie munger

That is definitely true, there is always a need for someone to make a choice and others to poke it down. And there is definitely emotion involved when one has long term success with an investing method but is met with ridicule by those with average results over time.

>>>>
Majority of investors are emotional.. once u have invested in that counter, u will defence it .. I have kept QL for the last 10 yrs n I have also kept Insas almost 10 years . We make our own decision.. good nite n all take a good rest .

Hi purebull,

That is the essence of true investing.

Investing is supposed to be boring, slow and watching paint dry.

The bigger the sums you invest, the less action you need to do, the more reading you need to have.

Action needs to be decisive, because majority of stocks will not give you good returns long term.

One of the mental models I use for stocks is the 80/20 rule. In business, 20% of the population control the other 80%. Therefore in this case, I operate on the assumption that 80% of the stocks in bursa are crap, and only 20% above average.

It makes it easy for me to just skip through a lot of financial report and start applying other mental models on the 20% to define my opportunity costs.

*****

I guess if we wanted more excitement I'd go to the casino instead.

I thought i3 was an investing forum? It is funny how word information gets passed around.

Sslee if you are not a keen reader or intent in widening your investing knowledge, why do you even bother buying stocks? It will lose you money in the long run if you have no idea what you are doing.

I would advise you to just put your money in the fixed deposit and pick a quiet temple somewhere you no longer need money.

No point asking who is proven, I have skin in the game, been a long term investor of QL since 2009. Every quarter I added in my salary and commission and bonus, for 40 quarters straight. I monitor my 5 stocks very very carefully.

CalvinT has zero skin in the game, he can afford to talk because he doesn't have a portfolio. He sells subscription and cheats new investors by acting as if he is a know it all. I keep only to my circle of competence.

He is the guy who told you about perisai, talam, binapuri, protasco, etc etc. He has 5% of his networth spread out over 50 stocks.

I would have a discussion, but his investing method is so archaic and simple and straightforward you really wonder how he really makes his money. Likely from property and just following his Johor sifu blindly like a parrot.

All I can say is if you take all of his stock picks and average it out, you would have negative return.

You just have to see in the long term, which stock has he ever picked that has grown shareholder value for 10 years running?

The guy who brings his friends to his abode in holland( drive)?

Or the guy who held since 2009 stocks in QL, Topglov, PBB (now PCHEM), YINSON? And moreover top up every quarter and didn't sell a single share?

It is obvious what Calvin is trying to do by comparing price action (only) of QL versus DIALOG. He spells it as dialogue, not knowing what dialog even stands for.

Do you think he bought a single share?

Thats why I say 1st level thinking always 1st level thinking. Ask yourself, how easy it is for dialog to expand to phillipines or indonesai or thailand or japan with its business model?

Then ask yourself if QL can do the same thing (yes it has regional replication up and running, which is why they sacrificing short term profit for long term gain). And most importantly, why is QL REVENUE and earnings is consistently growing year after year after year.

Then ask yourself why Dialog growth of revenue is stuttering up and down (and how much capex needed to grow, and how many storage tanks do we really need?
Why is Dialog revenue reducing, and can they keep up the earnings? financial accounting?

Is QL growth story ending? or just beginning to flex its muscles? (watch the long queues at family mart and the brand recognition and products you should know the answer)

How is Dialog trying to find its second wind with EPCC and upstream ventures? Will it end up successful or troublesome? why is their storage tank expansion slowing down? (QL already found its second wind with Marine, third wind with layered farming, fourth wind with plantation, fifth wind with family mart. all from a start as a feedstock company)

Dialog has more nasty surprises coming up with its EPCC division (which 1st level thinkers know nothing about).

You know nothing Jon Snow. And winter is coming.

You should stick to what you know calvin tan. Which is preaching the word of god. Because your investment track record is more luck than skill.

then I keep quiet lo, stockraider so pro he can say 4.75 to 9 cents for DGSB is 100% gain.

I stupid lo, dont know how to calculate 1+1 = 2.

forget the little hint like consolidation that I leave out for amateur stockraider to find, he still fall into trap. really 100% gain?

Spade is really spade, shows how deep you investing skill is.

I think enough la, had too much fun bullying "smart" investors like stockraider. time will tell.

dont forget ah, RM3 then sell ah?

I bow to leno logic. At least leno is gentleman and will study first without immediately calling everyone who don't agree stupid and idiot.

OK insas canteek.

I remember xinquan also had a wonderful balance sheet.

he doesn't even know what is consolidation means. Just spout and never check properly. Insas pay 4.75 cent, after 2:1 consolidation become 9.5. but share price drop to 9 cents. Smart insas. Buy loss making company. you think can get 100% gain?

Stockraider, investing not for you. You think you got 250K to play play with a stock? Better go back borrow more money from your dad la.

Malu apa bossku?

No need to bother explaining to a guy who doesn't know what a car is. His investing is fish deep. Until I brought it up, he doesn't even know INSAS has bought DGSB.

>>>>
Dgsb consolidation 2 to 1 . Where got 100% gained?

no one is laughing.

People are thinking carefully.

If a business is shrinking and not making money, the management has to keep trying new things to make things work. If it keeps on not working, you will have to sell shares to pay your dividends and grow the business.

If you buy multiple nonperforming business, the earnings and returns of which are negative, you business will suffer and get worse over time.

Only idiots and poor people think about share price all the time only.

Business results and management execution are of the utmost importance.

what is drive car fwd. stop and reverse?

office boy talk. good luck with your imaginary 250K, probably more like 2.5K sounds more like it with your investing personality.

Irrational, repetitive, stuck with using the same tools and concepts forever.

with your so called margin of safety: they had rights issue to dilute company shares in 2015 which they didn't even know how to fully utilize until 2017+. then they have esos to dilute company shares further. then they have warrants to dilute company shares even further. all to get RM137 million in cash.

Why? if you say they have so much assets and money, why need to do activities that destroy shareholder value?

Please wait until your share price goes to rm3 then you sell ya(hopefully in 2 years Jan 2021). those who only know how to drive a car fwd forever better than those who don't even know what a car is.

Good luck.

TA? downtrend, bearish harami. stochastics in short term is not good. Resistance is 0.80 is futile. Next resistance at 0.75.

Long term? shooting star definitely lo.

I love how technical analysis make me sound smarter than I really am.

especially if your insas is selling good performing inari to buy DGSB?


Good luck holding on to your 250K (if you even have them) for 2 years or more.

Don't sell early ya, got "potential value" of RM3 per share.

is a business a bungalow?

if the stupid wishes to make a analogy, how about a 3 million rented apartment in Malaysia, and a 10 million abandoned empty apartment here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Varosha,_Famagusta

Yes, you could buy that apartment from the seller for 500 thousand (he will be more than willing to sell it to you), and it has a value of 10 million (if the turkish governemnt relents and reopens cyprus), but how long do you have to wait? or if it will even happen

Still don't understand how it works in the context of a business?

Surely you are not so stupid as to overpay for a business with underperforming assets?

yeah, what he said.

All I read was free money to invest at 2%.

Think about it, don't use small brains and say but dgsb is with 134 million, 20% for 12.83 million is good deal what.

Ask yourself why you would pay 20% for a company with 42 million nta, negative earnings and reducing revenue?

It's like describing a mini INSAS this dgsb, except worse.

FYI, if you are still wondering, this is what your INSAS CEO is doing with your money, buying a 20% share in this:

https://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/stk/fin/0131.jsp

Business sense versus blind margin of safety? Good business? Imagine CEO selling 600+ million of inari shares to invest in 100 companies like this. Good luck. Bye bye good will.

If just investing buy companies with high nta low market cap was so easy, then everyone would be doing it. Just use klsescreener 5 minutes work. Office boy strategy. One simple indicator.

But it isn't that easy. You don't need much brains to invest, but you need a heavy dose of common sense.

After you read Warren's letter, you will start to think, do I want to buy INSAS for what it has done with inari IPO in 2011? Or what it is doing today and what it is trying to achieve in 5 years from now.

If investing is about the past, I would be the top20 shareholder in INSAS.

But investing is about investing in the future, and margin of safety does nothing to tell you about the future.

Warren's exact words:

"Too often CEOs seem blind to an elementary reality: The intrinsic value of the shares you give in an acquisition must not be greater than the intrinsic value of the business you receive."

You really need to ask yourself this simple question, INSAS is selling inari shares every quarter. For what purpose? What is it buying with the money? Is it a destruction of value or a creation of value?

If the CEO thinks selling inari shares is worth investing in companies like vigsys, sengenic, numoni and especially the new company acquisition, you have to value the growth of these two companies relatively.

" Insas Bhd has acquired a 19.91% stake in Diversified Gateway Solutions Bhd (DGSB) via direct business transaction from Omesti Bhd for RM12.83 million cash or 4.75 sen per DGSB share. "

If the answer is value destruction, then it doesn't matter how much the nta of INSAS is because the CEO will just gamble it all away.

That is the silliest thing I have ever heard.

At to rm3, earnings of 7 cents (4 last quarters), you will be paying for INSAS
1.7 billion ringgit.
PE of 42++
Earnings of 46 million., From a revenue of 240 million. ( In 2010 it had a revenue of 423 million, 60 million in net profit)

For a company of shrinking profits. Unsteady revenues, bad business investments.
I'm all for speculation, but paying for something with warrants overhang, preferred shares and so many hidden hooks.... I don't get it.

This is what happens when you take "margin of safety" in vacuum.

Instead, read this:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/SpecialLetters/WEB%20past%20present%20future%202014.pdf

Think grow rich.

Moving on.

>>
Why leh ?? This is bcos Insas got potential mah....the TP can be Rm 1.30....Rm 2.00....Rm 2.54 or even it is Rm 3.00 is not overvalue mah.....!!

That is the silliest thing I have ever heard.

At to rm3, earnings of 7 cents (4 last quarters), you will be paying for INSAS
1.7 billion ringgit.
PE of 42++
Earnings of 46 million., From a revenue of 240 million. ( In 2010 it had a revenue of 423 million, 60 million in net profit)

For a company of shrinking profits. Unsteady revenues, bad business investments.
I'm all for speculation, but paying for something with warrants overhang, preferred shares and so many hidden hooks.... I don't get it.

This is what happens when you take "margin of safety" in vacuum.

Instead, read this:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/SpecialLetters/WEB%20past%20present%20future%202014.pdf

Think grow rich.

Moving on.

>>
Why leh ?? This is bcos Insas got potential mah....the TP can be Rm 1.30....Rm 2.00....Rm 2.54 or even it is Rm 3.00 is not overvalue mah.....!!

That is the silliest thing I have ever heard.

At to rm3, earnings of 7 cents (4 last quarters), you will be paying for INSAS
1.7 billion ringgit.
PE of 42++
Earnings of 46 million., From a revenue of 240 million. ( In 2010 it had a revenue of 423 million, 60 million in net profit)

For a company of shrinking profits. Unsteady revenues, bad business investments.
I'm all for speculation, but paying for something with warrants overhang, preferred shares and so many hidden hooks.... I don't get it.

This is what happens when you take "margin of safety" in vacuum.

Instead, read this:

http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/SpecialLetters/WEB%20past%20present%20future%202014.pdf

Think grow rich.

Moving on.

>>
Why leh ?? This is bcos Insas got potential mah....the TP can be Rm 1.30....Rm 2.00....Rm 2.54 or even it is Rm 3.00 is not overvalue mah.....!!

Exactly, no problems. PPHB is a good long term stock with a growth trigger. Once the quay girl gets completed then you have a guaranteed revenue and earnings growth. Things will look out fine in the long run.

Yawn

My own experience in investing (and gambling) for 20+ years is realizing that when you value a stock, the best way is still to assume the share price not there.

When you stop seeing share price first, all you see is businesses. You start comparing which business works the best, who has the best profit margins, who has the competitive advantage, who has been growing for the longest period, and more importantly why are they growing. After you analyze the business itself on the strength of its business model, then when you decide this is the stock than I am going to buy,

Then you look at the price. If the price fits, then the stock will work out.

Then when the quarterly report comes out, forget about the share price and understand the business model itself again. Is it on track? Has it changed? Did something new happen? Then when you decide to buy mor(e or sell you position, then you look at the price.

That's how it finally clicked for me.

That's why I don't get ta or momentum investing at all. How does the study of price action in the past prepare you for future results? A stock can keep going down for a long time, longer than your margin call can bear before suddenly shooting up without warning. Or a stock can keep going up for a long time then suddenly drop like a rock.

And you don't even know why(except after it happened). Isn't that kind of investing stressful? Imagine trying to use ever larger sums of money to chase those gains.

Crazy.

If I had to invest 12 million that way, I think I would lose everything in 3 years.

After a certain amount, money becomes the scoreboard to keep track. To be honest depending on your lifestyle, 200k is more than enough. I survive in far below that.

Rick or not is simple matter of not having to cut loss or take profit too early for 10 years. I started with 200k, end up with reinvesting and retain earnings into QL for 10 years in one stock. Is that gambling? If you know what you are doing and you know what your stock is doing you are not gambling. You are investing.

I bought 1.4m shares in PCHEM, I made 1.2 million in a month in paper profit. Is that gambling? Not if you can see what the future will be. All I can say is the simple the business, the clearer the future. You buy or sell based on what the future business will bring. Not the sudden increase in share price.

I would instead say buying 0.25 of sapura the very definition of gambling. You don't see any earnings future to give it profit. The business it has is inherently loss making for the next few years because of the contracts it has. You KNOW that sapura will continue to lose money, but you still buy because you HOPE someone will pay more for it than you did.

That is the essential definition of gambling. Hope that things will work out, instead of rational judging of the most likely future possibility coming out.

I don't get how you can value the intrinsic value of PETRONM to be a feasible action.

Personally, I don't think the future of refining stocks like petronm, dagangan and hengyuan to be that good. They are probably going to scrap their plan of expanding operations with that 3.5 USD billion new refining plant because of low margins and unclear results in the future on demand.

For me, I see no pricing power, no demand choice, no clear business advantage between a petron gas station versus a Petronas or Shell. I am ambivalent about which station I choose, as the price are all the same and the locations are a matter of convenience.

For petron to increase the number of service stations in the future would be foolhardy wth the returns it gets in recovering returns. The capex requirement to increase production is huge and time consuming. The scheduled/statutory shut down is a drain on the total future value of the company.

There is just no point to buying a refining stock in the long run. So personally I don't see how you can look 10 years ahead and find any reason to own PETRONM Vs a Petronas or hengyuan or whatever.

Now if petronm has a patent or be technology that can process palm oil into high grade diesel fuel that others don't have then different story la.

As it is, what kind of growth trigger can one even find to put petronm in a competitive moat position vs its peers 5-10 years from now. Lower refining costs? More efficient production? Bigger sales network? Better customer loyalty and support?

I just don't see a future where petron will be the market leader locally. Why bet long term?