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2019-02-19 07:00 | Report Abuse
I'm sure trading stocks can make money. But I think the reason why it is rare(almost never) to hear famous short term traders over a long period being successful as compared to longer term value investors (Howard marks, Peter lynch, walter Schloss etc etc) I think the reason is simple. George Soros is not a short term momentum trader. He is a contrarian trader if I ever saw one.
Almost all momentum trading is based on capital protection first, earnings second. By default you can't put more money into play, because of the inherent risk of not knowing deeply the asset you are trading. And to diversify the risk ( I never understand this part), they have to put money into more and more stocks they don't understand which they only analyze based on momentum charts ( things that has happened before) to guess what will happen tomorrow.
To be honest, most of the trader friends I know, they do not go into big active fund management. Majority of them trade small amounts. The biggest I know trades with 10% maximum exposure per trade aof a group fund of 10 million. He has averaged 10-15% over 8 years. The amount of stress he gets to achieve that level of success is tremendous. He does not trade bursa.
And Steven is exactly right. The biggest cause of fund failure is when they forget that they are doing speculation and trading activities and suddenly convince themselves they are doing long term investing halfway through their trading. Then they chase bad trades with more money and it becomes a ball of fire.
So far I have yet to find an official fund manager in Malaysia with big fund size (assets bigger than 500 million) successfully using short term trading methodology as a way of investing with a success rate 5-10 years+. Any sifus who firmly believe in this strategy out there making trading gains with big sums of money over long periods of time out there?
2019-02-18 19:03 | Report Abuse
Oh, I see. Well that is still based on general public knowledge then. That's fine.
Everyone who spends a few hours on the internet can find the same knowledge. That is public. I was thinking you were meant EPF has material information on the quarterly results before it is packaged and announced by Bursa.
I think that is fair. Everyone has the same knowledge. Interpretation of the information however differs from individual to individual. It's funny though each time EPF sells their shares now, the price has gone up.
Meaning there are buyers who see the same thing I do.
2019-02-18 18:45 | Report Abuse
Yeah Stockraider, can enough? Everyday post same post. Are you trying to brainwash people or something? Please go other thread and post your insas Hathaway. I think everyone here gets the message and those who want to buy already done so. I won't put a single cent in your stock choices. Can you go find other people to disturb? You more lohsoh than choivo.
Even Leno INSAS bull cannot tahan you...
2019-02-18 15:30 | Report Abuse
If you think there is no risk premium in buying airline stocks, you are either joking or crazy...
>>>>
Therefore, in Buffettology, no risk premium is applied.
also, malaysia 10 year bond rate is at 4%-5%, so anything you buy better do than this. You can't apply US government bond rates in emerging markets in my opinion.
>>>>
Warren uses long-term government bond rate as the discount rate. Here, we use 3.5% only.
2019-02-18 15:11 | Report Abuse
How about BJTOTO, I dont think you can buy toto with credit. :) Isn't that an all cash business?
Is that a good business? Not necessarily.
I think author forgot to mention that until recently, Warren buffett has been avoiding airplane stocks like the plague.
Only recently has berkshire bought delta and southwest airlines due to massive consolidation in the industry to make it attractive.
The main problem with airlines is the fact that you can lose an entire plane, your business, factory and production area which is worth hundreds of millions of dollars in one single flight, with no idea what happened. The nasty surprise can be very nasty and will hit the company earnings for multiple quarters.
On top of that the main raw material is a very expensive ingredient which is subject to change on an immediate basis and affects bottomline on a huge basis, due to the fact that it is 70%+ of entire AirAsia costs, its major expenses.This is also a nasty surprise, should fuel prices spike suddenly. These 2 costs are not something that you can pass through to the customer.
Just these 2 surprises is the main reason why so many airline stocks have gone bankrupt throughout the years.
Buying airline stocks is not for the faint of heart.
Having said that, AA is a fantastic company that is the best performer in its entire industry, and is always searching for new ways to monetize the fact millions of people spend hours sitting in their planes with nothing to do and no where to go. I'm surprised Tony hasn't thought of starting up flight casinos in international air space for long haul flights.
It's just that you need to know the underlying risk in buying airline stocks. You cannot just see the happy times when all making money without knowing your risk potential for loss when bad things happen.
One big metric which you don't put in your thesis is the number of mechanical delays, failures, loss of life and crashes AA versus the competitors and industry. This is important because you need to realize the bigger scope of business of AA, the higher the rate of risk of dangerous, company affecting damage.
Just ask MAS airlines. How much was the reputation loss after MH370? How big was the drop in passenger turnover after the crash? How much many to save it?
Thoughts to ponder.
2019-02-18 14:45 | Report Abuse
sentiment and perception is true, but pinned by earnings and fundamentals. Short time crazy wife, long term good cooking and childbearing and house cleaning and clothes washing.
2019-02-18 11:02 | Report Abuse
So far, that would be construed as insider information which is illegal and punishable by law. I have no proof the EPF knows more about material public information or has insider connections with PCHEM directors (which from all accounts have a track record of reliability, multiple other directorships in internationals companies like AIA etc, and are very ethical). You may be perfectly right, I have no way of knowing.
I choose to believe in the more plausible action, that the EPF is governed by a big group of fund managers who have different KPI and opportunity costs/risks. And also it takes a long time to unload big block of shares without causing undue stress and hitting limit down.
In the end, I think PCHEM has a very viable business, and a strong core growing moat. As long as the value of tomorrow is more than today, and I am using cash to buy the stock (instead of margin or contra), I find that I can wait longer periods of time.
Most importantly, my family currently has around 1.4m shares in PCHEM. at 29 cents of yearly dividend, that should come to quite a nice tidy sum each year to buy PCHEM stock at lower prices if things go well, and have capital gains increases if it goes up higher.
We shall see how the quarterly report goes.
I may be a bit too excitable recently, but I think you should trust me. PCHEM is solid.
>>>>>
Usually these multi-billion dollar institutions (including EPF) have advance information about any public listed company several months b4 the quarterly report comes out.... that's y we can't figure out y they r selling (but they already know everything ahead of others who have to depend on the quarterly reports).
2019-02-18 10:16 | Report Abuse
I think you can do it online from here and mail them your documents. I'm not sure. It's probably the same as owning TD in USA, just submit your w8-ben form and you should be good to go.
I did mine in Singapore, I have a sg account with standard chartered, the first bank to open in Sabah.
2019-02-18 10:12 | Report Abuse
Leno is a very smart man! everyday keep posting all forum telling everyone to buy, got point kah? If people want to buy let them buy la, they want to sell up to them la! Important is in i3 is to share information. Got wrong or right pulak in sharing information?
if only Leno become CEO of INSAS, INSAS sure CAAAAAWANNNNNTEEEEEEKKK!
LENO CAAAAAWANNNNNTEEEEEEKKK!!!
2019-02-18 09:09 | Report Abuse
Hi Leno, I do not buy penny stocks. I only own 5 stocks which I know well and can monitor properly. In my view I don't think the future of INSAS will be good, it may be a trading stock, but I no longer speculate on trades anymore since 2000.
Good luck Leno, you make 30% profit! Good job!
2019-02-17 15:06 | Report Abuse
Qqq3, that is a bit under the belt...
Please refrain from hurtful remarks like that. My post here is about pchem and it's pro and cons.
If possible let's all stick to that so we can gather concise information instead.
2019-02-17 14:26 | Report Abuse
This apabagus is one of the reasons I write my blog. Just because you own multiple stocks doesn't mean you are a good investor. You are just someone who doesn't know how to value your stocks. If you know your stocks well, a concentrated investment portfolio is clearly the best method of investing.
Gambling different story la, if you don't how if black or red will turn up in roulette wheel, you need to diversify your bets so your chances of failure is lower.
INVESTING is not gambling. If you know that a stock well enough that it will perform 70-90% accuracy, then you should put your entire net worth into it.
I did.
* Apabagus is another troll. Almost ALL of his 200 comments on i3 us negative troll remarks making fun of others with no investment philosophy. Except 1. He thinks with the introduction of GST our klci is 1600, with SST is 2060. And mark his words, by July 2018, klci will hit 1750.
Still waiting.
I wonder what stocks he bought?
2019-02-17 14:23 | Report Abuse
There are too many reasons to worry about why other people are selling their stocks. What is important is the material information from the Feb quarterly report. If it is good, many people will buy more. If it is bad, the evaluate the reason why.
For myself, I welcome the chance to buy pchem stocks at such a low price. If I can buy it for rm3 I'll be even happier to sell my other positions and go all in on pchem. 10% dividend on a growth stock with roe 19% is unheard of.
Wishful thinking though.
2019-02-17 14:16 | Report Abuse
Ah I see. For that, my only response as a concentrated long term investor is to buy only on the quarterly report and monitor how things are going every 3 months. If the story doesn't change, then you continue buying. If the story changes, then you reevaluate.
This is how I have been investing these past 10 years. I guess no matter what you just need to be vigilant.
I'm willing to cut PCHEM some rope because of it's good management and so far they have not been deviating from their business strategy. But so far I find that their business advantage is such that an idiot nephew could run the business with relative success.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp
2019-02-17 14:08 | Report Abuse
The very fact that you use words like noob and troll remark and no interest in learning new things tells me you are either in your twenties or early thirties.
Millennials. A few years and they think they have seen everything in bursa.
I'm old enough to remember trading options on bursa.
Did you know that?
2019-02-17 13:44 | Report Abuse
Who say I'm flaunting? I'm just stating a fact. This is what I earned. And this is how I earned them.
And the question you should be asking me is, since 2009 how many times I cut loss? How big is my investment size? How small did I start from?
Why I keep buying the same stock every quarter top up for 10 years?
How many people you know buy the same 4 stocks and average every 3 months for years? And not sell out and take small gain?
You know nothing, but presume to comment so much. Maybe you should be the one to be humble?
How many times you cut loss in your investments? What is your compounded gains in the last 10 years?
Like icon8888 maybe I can challenge you also, show your portfolio and your investment gains.
I did.
2019-02-17 13:17 | Report Abuse
You should read more apabagus, it might do your investing some good.
https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/phillipinvesting/188844.jsp
I have been in the stock market since late 80s'. So I think I know what I'm talking about.
2019-02-17 13:15 | Report Abuse
Which single stock? QL since 2009? Topglove since 2010? Public bank since 2012? YINSON since 2013?
Why would I buy multiple many stocks, buy 50 counters with 5% net worth?
I practise concentrated investing. I have a few good ideas, and put big sum of money in them.
They work. I share. You may use them if you like. You don't have to comment.
I have no qualms with gambling in genting, I do it once in a while. It's no issue to me.
I have a problem when people gamble, but call it investment.
2019-02-17 12:20 | Report Abuse
Hi dragonslayer,
I am a retiring member of the Rotary club in Sabah. I believe in giving back to society, and most of all I believe if more retail investors are educated properly on the concept of investing versus gambling they will have a better future in Malaysia. I hope for that fact because the more educated retail investors we have, the better our local bursa stock market. And the better run our bursa, the more good companies will list here instead of elsewhere, and the more dividends and profits will be returned to our malaysians so we can spend on our childrens future.
I share my knowledge because I am retiring soon (next few years actually) and I hope retirees will not be fooled into losing their shirts in blind investments (like sslee and his xinguan, KYY in his JAKS, and all those investors in Renong and SUMATEC) but have a clearer perspective on what the stock market really is:
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SHAREHOLDERS TO JOIN IN THE PROFITS AND GROWTH OF A GOOD COMPANY, FOR THE GOOD OF THE PUBLIC.
I look to the earnings of a company to benefit me long term, not to the share price swings, which I cannot predict and benefit from.
This investment has worked for me. And my goal is to leave my writings for posterity, so that future young investors can learn from my mistakes and not repeat them. (halim bin saad is still evil.)
>>>>>>>
Aiyo...gaduh lagi...why always the same group of ppl like to gaduh one...what you all want to prove...lol ..who can be the StockGod kah...aiyoyo...mau invest..invest lah...why must write blog...I cant figure out any reason...other than to promote own stock...lol...aiyoyo...kikiki
2019-02-17 12:11 | Report Abuse
To be honest, no one here knows why EPF sold PCHEM. and since they have a few hundred million shares anyway, it doesn't really matter. Everything else is conjecture.
All we should care about and think about is whether or not PCHEM will do better in the future compared to today.
In 2010, IPO listed PCHEM with a valuation of 4.4 billion USD (around 14 billion back then). Today in 2019 it is worth 68 billion ringgit.
I would hold on all speculation and wait to see what the results for the latest QR will be before making am investment decision.
Speculators buy carimin and sapura and naim and etc without caring what the qr reports are saying.
Investors buy after understanding the latest quarterly report to see how the business is doing, then they make their decision.
2019-02-17 11:45 | Report Abuse
I see. On what basis do you make this claim? I'm very interested to learn more.
From what I can see, ever since they spin off of petchem into bursa listed company, they have been consistently paying 50% of dividends from their earnings.
I'm starting to get worried now :)
Can you provide us concrete proof that petchem had done such a thing before and will do such a thing in the future?
I say this because a big part of my networth had been invested in petchem, so any material information from i3 community would be very helpful!
Cheers and happy CNY risktransforner!
2019-02-17 11:39 | Report Abuse
I leave that to investors like sslee to find out.
2019-02-17 11:09 | Report Abuse
When you have 2 billion retained earnings every year, you can do many things, and when you have 6 billion in cash, many deals can be made. You need to be aware petchem not doing entire PIC( it's integrated, see) meaning they are only doing the petrochemical processing plants. And that is also a JV job with aramco to share the costs.
If not profitable you think aramco want to share costs?
2019-02-17 09:56 | Report Abuse
This year we are expecting 4.7 billion in earnings versus 4.1 billion in earnings last year.
With pangerang online, isononanol plant online and better turnaround utilization the next few years ( plant utilization is already at 93% which is better than world standard of 85%), I believe in 2-4 years time pchem can hit 5-6 billion in earnings. 2.5 - 3 billion of which will be given out as dividends, meaning
If you buy now at 8.5, you will look forward to (possibility but with high probability), dividend of 35-38 cents, more than current 29 cents.
This will be around 4.5% dividend yield when pangerang comes online, not to mention capital gains.
Meaning in 10 years you would have earned 45% if your outlay costs in dividends alone ( if all goes well, as usual).
But I believe in petronas chemicals. It has the resources, management ability and high net profit to continuously grow here in Asia, India and Africa market, which will be the biggest population growth in the future compared to USA and Europe.
I look forward to the day petchem becomes a 80 billion USD (from 18) international company doing revenue of 10 billion (from 4.5) USD revenue a year and 2 billion(from 1) USD in earnings.
Impossible or probable? No one knows. I'm along for the ride, and will be monitoring the quarterly reports consistently.
Notice how I don't care what the share price is in the short term?
2019-02-17 09:40 | Report Abuse
For reference ( this is how I value my stocks),
Dowdupont( Dow chemical merged with Dupont chemicals) is the biggest petrochemical company usa. Is market cap is 123 billion USD(500 bil rm), has revenue of 86 billion usd a year, and net profit of 4 billion USD a year. Profit margin 4.47%.
BASF is the world's second biggest petrochemical company germany. It is valued at
61 billion euros, it does 73 billion euros in revenue, with 7 billion net profit, margin at 9.43%.
Shin-etsu chemical Japan is valued at 4 trillion yen. It does 13 billion yen in revenue per year, net income of 2 billion yen, and is the most efficient at 18% profit margin.
These are all companies that have hit terminal growth and are now growing only with the population increase, with no big growth triggers in place.
PCHEM I believe is in growth stage even right now, with a huge new profit of 25% consistently for more than 5 years, no debt, efficient growth.
Pangerang is a very good start. I look forward to 5-10 years from now.
Imagine if they took on more debt, and expanded more aggressively. If they took market share by reducing their profit margin I believe they can take a huge piece of the international market in the future.
2019-02-17 09:20 | Report Abuse
Good morning, appreciate if all can keep comments on the viability of PCHEM as a growth stock and long term pro and cons of holding PCHEM. Please start a chat somewhere else if nothing concrete or useful to add. Readers will be very irritated if all they see is arguments over nothing, and stockraider repeating same argument ad nauseum.
FYI, just in case anyone is wondering in why my father in law agreed in buying PCHEM, please note one interesting fact.
PCHEM has almost zero debt. Yes no current debt, no long term problem to worry about. No preferred shares hanging over your head, no warrants, no esos.
And this with a multinational group of directors and the best bumiputera talent money can buy. If you have a really smart Malay friend( and I have many good friends), chances are he works for petronas.
It has 8 billion shares. That's it. No more. No less.
Listed company. No hidden agenda like stockraider says. Clear annual reports and governance. It's actually worth more than petronas dagangan, which tells you the future of PCHEM.
I believe PCHEM at 17 billion USD cap, 19 billion revenues, 4 billion earnings has much room to grow.
2019-02-17 07:06 | Report Abuse
A few simple questions to ponder,
Why did solar industry die the moment no more FIT was announced?
Why is no one taking up the net energy metering on the industrial side?
If "green" energy is sustainable, why did FIT in Thailand and many other countries fall apart? Why did Sarawak not participate in feed in tariff?
Why does SolarCity and many solar companies keep going bankrupt?
Why did the biomass industry in Sabah and Sarawak for the moment people realized there was value in fruit bunches?
And the main one, is cypark business sustainable if the government stopped supporting the seda programs today? Will it make financial sense to general industry?
2019-02-16 18:32 | Report Abuse
I think it's more of a case where they can't sell sapura because it's underwater, they can't sell Armada because it's underwater, they can't sell fgv because it was making losses, and they can't a lot of "institutional" shares because it was loss making last year. So only way is to hold and wait.
What can they sell? PCHEM. Because it was profitable last year and can sell to cover the dividend payment to pay for epf savings this year.
Go figure.
2019-02-16 17:45 | Report Abuse
You do realize that dividends per year is 0.3 cents right? Anyone crazy enough to dump a company with rm3 in nett assets AND giving out 30 cents a year in dividends, and doing 25% nett profit, and growing it's revenue by 2 billion every year can sell their shares to me. 4 billion in earnings, if you are interested. And growing roe by 19%.
LCTITAN down the road is doing half the revenue and half the earnings and higher debt ratio is asking for more.
Any reason to sell other than epf just announced 6.15% for 2019? You do realize that no way epf with all it's investment losses in 2018 losses can give out those kind returns right?
The one you should look at is petronas, they are major shareholder. Does it look like they are selling their PCHEM shares?
2019-02-16 17:33 | Report Abuse
Wah suddenly know insas business for 10 years since 2009? Wah shareholder since 1996 is it? Talk to management session some more. Okok, you win! Insas canteek!
* The entire point I was going on is to imply that the petrochemical building in Pangerang is completed. The isononanol processing is also completed. Power to site is completed. All I was trying to say is everything is ready for final T&C stage AHEAD of schedule, meaning earnings and additional revenue from pic to PCHEM will be earlier than expected.
Ok enough la. I stop taking so much. Since stockraider is so pro I just keep quiet let him enjoy the sound of his voice.
Maybe you can go back to sapura and insas page to talk more there?
I really have enough of you already. I don't want to argue but you keep following me everywhere.
2019-02-16 17:17 | Report Abuse
Haha crazy. If course not. Minimum amount to get the 0.1% Maybank transfer fee without running the volume. But if course I was to smart for my own good. Pchem trading volume around 6m shares ( buy and sell) per day, I thought of doing 1% per day. Actually no difference also. Haha. I'm small potatoes la. If buy penny stocks like PPHB I think will affect. But pchem no difference.
Anyway, I started buying January 14th at rm8.2 until end January around 8.33, on hindsight should have just bought entire block then.
So I think what I will do is write a quarterly update on my report so fellow investors can see how I go through my understanding of quarterly reports, and can correct me if I see the wrong thing.
But FYI, I have already been to Pangerang, so I know it's there la. Quite confident la. It's massive!
Easier than going Vietnam to see jaks power plant. Which I thought was quite smart of kyy to verify.
2019-02-16 16:53 | Report Abuse
Raider, stop arguing for the sake of arguing. You want to search for supporter for what.
If your investing works then it works lor.
What is this bullshit master slave posting? You think tvb drama?
If you really have the balls, you would have put insas in your 2019 stock challenge. Sure number one now 30% gain. But you only know how to talk talk talk.
If you have balls to talk so much, then put your money where your mouth is sailang everything, put your family house, dog cat, everything into insas.
Why still got time and money to play with sapura?
Really what kind of investing are you doing? Troll investing?
My portfolio is clear and concise and simple. My investment philosophy is consistent. The moment you look at PCHEM you know immediately this is the kind of stock that Philip will buy.
Your style of playing with fire, stop asking people to join you la. If people see value in your investing method, they will join you play without you asking.
Do you need friends and supporters so much? INVESTING and buying stocks no need friends one.
If you buy, and it works then it works lo. No need to be so childish about it.
And no need to be like kyy after buy then tell everyone I don't need you to buy to help me push the price up.( Then wtf keep posting so many articles telling just that?)
Just remember to cut loss when your investing starts so fail.
2019-02-16 14:59 | Report Abuse
Even here raider no supporter.
Sad.
I go eat egg tart first. Happy Saturday all.
Insas CAAANTEEEKKK! :)
2019-02-16 13:03 | Report Abuse
Wasting time talking with broken clock.
Stop promoting your insas and sapura speculation here. last 5 years your insas and sapura has not performed. Looking at their management and business operations, they will continue to not perform 5 years from now.
Readers should read and make up their mind.
Up 30% in a month is speculation or investing? You make money short term you think is investing? Is the quarterly results out already?
You think stockraider dare to sailang, sell house, sell property buy all in into INSAS?
2019-02-16 12:55 | Report Abuse
Stockraider,
I post here first so you can find your supporters.
>>>
Do you think I will so silly pump in his money now in stocks like Sapura and Insas?
Think a bit. Understand risk. Your concept of margin of safety means nothing if your management decides to invest in weird companies like biotech and fintech and failed investments.
Just read about this:
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/06/27/insas-creates-a-listable-financial-technology-outfit/
this was in 2015. Insas had 30% of inari, sold its shares to buy crap like numoni. Now INSAS has 19% of INARI.
Where is numoni now?
Now insas buys biotech company sengenics. That buys biotech office in brunei, of all places. Brunei where got any talent or growth in biotech. Doesnt that raise any question marks?
then your insas buys vigsys sdn bhd. this vigsys:
http://www.vigsys.net/
Would you even buy anything from this webpage?
How about this? This is also a insas subsidiary.
http://www.jcpacific.com.my/
Would you buy anything from this company?
How about this? This is also INSAS subsidiary.
https://www.iprac.com/
In the age of UBER and GRAB, when was the last time you rented a car in SINGAPORE?
How about this? This is insas franchise.
http://www.domecafe.com.my/
Can you name me off the top of your head where is your nearest dome cafe. Ask your kids if they have gone to dome recently? Old town? Starbucks? Which is more popular and with better products/marketing?
How about this? This is INSAS core business.
https://www.mnaonline.com.my/
Do a survey, ask yourself. When you buy stocks, do you even use M&A stockbroking services? Why not? Which do you trust more? Hong Leong? Public Bank? Maybank? If you as a INSAS shareholder don't even use your own products, what does that say about the company?
I could go on and on with kind of bullshit INSAS buys:
On 25 July 2018, Insas Technology Berhad (“ITB”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the
Group had disposed off 12,000 ordinary shares, representing the entire shareholding in
Vigcashlimited LLC (“Vigcash”), to Mr. Sanj Natsagdorj for a total cash consideration of
USD1,500 (“Disposal”). Arising from the Disposal, Vigcash ceased to be an indirect
subsidiary company of the Group.
Vigcash was incorporated in Mongolia on 7 December 2005 and its issued and paid-up
share capital is USD10,000. The Company is currently dormant and the net asset value of
the Company is USD31.
Inari was a 1 shot lucky pony, that the dad bought. He is now retired, step down. Replaced by his son. Who is buying all of these companies with the money his dad earned. You see any future in these companies? Where is your margin of safety calculation in a son that uses all the goodwill of previous management to buy these crap?
12 million you think so easy to earn ah? I thought you previously office boy? You of all people should understand what RISK is.
You want me to invest in INSAS? I dont buy companies for what they have done before.
I buy companies for the capability they have today, and what I think they will do tomorrow.
Faham?
2019-02-16 12:52 | Report Abuse
Anyway, I never said PCHEM will outperform. The exact words I used were Stability, clarity of future growth earnings, and safety of investment. If you are a retiree and you couldnt invest in ASB, what would you do?
After all, I lost my father in law big sum of his money before (100K back in 90's).
Do you think I will so silly pump in his money now in stocks like Sapura and Insas?
Think a bit. Understand risk. Your concept of margin of safety means nothing if your management decides to invest in weird companies like biotech and fintech and failed investments.
Just read about this:
https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2015/06/27/insas-creates-a-listable-financial-technology-outfit/
this was in 2015. Insas had 30% of inari, sold its shares to buy crap like numoni.
Where is numoni now?
Now insas buys biotech company sengenics. That buys biotech assets in brunei, of all places. Brunei where got any talent or growth in biotech. Doesn't that raise any question marks?
then your insas buys vigsys sdn bhd. this vigsys:
http://www.vigsys.net/
Would you even buy anything from this webpage? or their vigcash in mongolia?
How about this? This is also an insas subsidiary.
http://www.jcpacific.com.my/
Would you buy anything from this company?
How about this? This is also INSAS subsidiary.
https://www.iprac.com/
In the age of UBER and GRAB, when was the last time you rented a car in SINGAPORE?
How about this? This is insas franchise.
http://www.domecafe.com.my/
Can you name me off the top of your head where is your nearest dome cafe. Ask your kids if they have gone to dome recently? Old town? Starbucks? Which is more popular and with better products/marketing?
How about this? This is INSAS core business.
https://www.mnaonline.com.my/
Do a survey, ask yourself. When you buy stocks, do you even use M&A stockbroking services? Why not? Which do you trust more? Hong Leong? Public Bank? Maybank? If you as a INSAS shareholder don't even use your own products, what does that say about the company?
I could go on and on with the kind of bullshit INSAS buys:
On 25 July 2018, Insas Technology Berhad (“ITB”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of the
Group had disposed off 12,000 ordinary shares, representing the entire shareholding in
Vigcashlimited LLC (“Vigcash”), to Mr. Sanj Natsagdorj for a total cash consideration of
USD1,500 (“Disposal”). Arising from the Disposal, Vigcash ceased to be an indirect subsidiary company of the Group. Vigcash was incorporated in Mongolia on 7 December 2005 and its issued and paid-up share capital is USD10,000. The Company is currently dormant and the net asset value of
the Company is USD31.
>>>>
Inari was a 1 shot lucky pony, that the dad bought. He is now retired, step down. Replaced by his son. Who is buying all of these companies with the money his dad earned. You see any future in these companies? Where is your margin of safety calculation in a son that uses all the goodwill of previous management to buy these crap?
12 million you think so easy to earn ah? I thought you previously office boy? You of all people should understand what RISK is.
You want me to invest in INSAS? I dont buy companies for what they have done before.
I buy companies for the capability they have today, and what I think they will do tomorrow.
Faham?
2019-02-16 12:08 | Report Abuse
Sigh... stockraider, you really dont understand?
If you play texas poker or gambling during CNY, you gamble with RM5-10 is consider play play no pain.
You try playing one hand 100K-200K, your hand shaking or not. Can still consider play play?
If you really multimillionaire like you claim you are, you would have understood by now.
To make real money, you need to put big money and make consistent tough choices.
Investing where got play play this word? You need to have as much information as possible, make the right decisions, and buy only consistent stocks that wont lose you money in the long term. That is investing.
Speculation you play like bacarat table got la. Either go up or down. When go up dont know, when go down also dont know.
you play play 1-5K on sapura got la, how to believe you can "invest" millions like you say in stocks with the same kampung thinking? Or you lose more than you win in the stock market, get angry and start arguments with everyone on i3?
If like that, I feel sorry for you lor. Let you win lor. Stockraider say everything also correct lor.
*outperform or not dont know yet. But I know I miminize my stocks risk first, and maximize my opportunity costs second. Basic fundamentals. Big amount or small amount doesnt matter, but if you invest as if thinking your whole family will be sold to slavery if your stock pick fails, then you definitely will start thinking about risk first, no? And if you think like that, do you still want to buy 30 stocks, gambling stocks, or friend recommend stocks?
I hope you learned something.
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U really stupid loh...just bcos u put big amount on a stock...u r going to outperform meh ??
Very stupid analogy loh...!!
2019-02-16 11:58 | Report Abuse
Saturday is off day yes, but i'm also on holiday now until after chap goh mei, enjoying super high speed internet now in HK. Daughter landing in HK then we transfer flight to Sabah.
Problem with Sabah is that hard to find direct flights out to anywhere. Have to fly to SG or HK for transfer to US.
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I also realized Eason not related to you. He sold his Vitrox too early. :)
2019-02-16 11:04 | Report Abuse
Really boloh, I give up. The amount of money you invest is the amount you will lose if your investment is wrong. Which business has the higher risk of disappearing in the long term?
A company that each quarter can buy 2 insas? With high, consistent profits that you can see 5-10 years from now?
Or a company so ridden with debt, it can't even bid for projects anymore and has to keep selling assets to pay creditors ( sapura)
Or a company with fake assets out east that no one can verify it see, and accountants who don't care about their reputation just sign off? (Sumatec)
Or a company that buys questionable investments in a fintech that no one has ever heard of or generate any income, and a company that buys a biotech company that you don't even know what it does and how much money it can make. That is insas.
Do you even care what insas is doing with your retained earnings?
Good luck. I find the fact that you can make money from stock market long term to be amazing.
2019-02-16 10:47 | Report Abuse
I think you have it wrong. I am investing more than 12 million of me, my father in law and my wife net worth.
Knowing this, you need to see deeper and invest with extreme care, with minimal risk and the best possible growth with that level of risk.
Ask yourself, if you invest 10 million with your entire family, brother, cousin, lender money, do you really think you have the guts to put all that money in a very on sapura?
I might as well start an ah long company and get 18% per annum borrowing to b40 individuals, less risk.
How shaky do you think "investing" in CARIMIN and SAPNG is at these current levels when you can't even name the CEO or it's business strategy. When the directors themselves are rushing to sell all their shares to you so they can get out of their own company?
Speculation is speculation.
In investing you don't look at 1 month, 3 month, 1 year prices.
I look at 5-10 years from now.
No need to argue with someone who can't even answer simple economic questions.
Do you want me to tell you how much pchem pays for feedstocks? Or why exactly pchem can maintain 25% net profit margin in an industry selling plastics, fertilizer, aromatics and PVC? Or how much extra revenue will be generated from Pangerang RAPID?
Very easy. It's like this, the price paid is the
2019-02-16 06:17 | Report Abuse
You have zero concept of the idea of risk.
Just because you are making money, make 10-20% from sapura, you think it is not a risky play.
Just because you made money from carimin, make 100%, you think it is not a risky activity?
Working in o&g you only see the high salary and bonuses, but not the underlying risk involved. Just try buying insurance, the premiums are different. Why?
The habits you build while investing forms the core of your long term success. And the core of long term success is COMPOUNDED GAINS.
How many times you cut loss? Each time you cut loss you lose months and years of investing gains.
I don't want to belittle you anymore raider, but when you talk more than you listen and read, someone has to teach you a better way.
I hope you learned something.
* I apologise if I make you feel small. But you seem to think investing is about me fighting you. No, arguing until cow turn into milk won't achieve anything. Investing is about being right. I don't really care anything about you. I don't even know your real name or care who you are. What I care about is factual useful information brought to the table. So far you talk the most, and bring the least. You should change that.
2019-02-16 06:00 | Report Abuse
If you need to be an expert to buy stocks, what are you doing speculating in sapura. Got margin of safety? You are buying just in the HOPE that the price will go up with zero care in what the underlying business is doing.
You might as well be gambling in genting.
Or sailang in buying sub-prime derivatives.
2019-02-16 05:55 | Report Abuse
Stockraider, until now you cannot answer a simple question which is in the annual reports, blah blah blah.
Simple question 1. How much is the price PCHEM is paying for feedstocks from petronas that you say is " eroding"
Simple question 2. Why is PCHEM getting 25% net profit compared to it's petrochemical competitors like LCTITAN etc(10%)?
Simple question 3. How much additional revenue will PCHEM receive from Pangerang RAPID refining process to give additional feedstocks capacity to them? Is the estimated 3.3 MTPA ( PCHEM current capacity 10.9 mpta) feasible or a fake number?
Simple question 4. If the new production capacity priced into PCHEM current price? What will the intrinsic value be when you add this new capacity into book value?
Investing is not that difficult. It's all about buying a stock today for it's returns tomorrow.
The difficult part is understanding tomorrow.
2019-02-16 05:43 | Report Abuse
https://zfelites.com/about/blog/
I suspect this Eason Chang is qqq son or student? He buys the same thing!
Hahaha.
2019-02-16 05:35 | Report Abuse
I think Warren buffet explained it best. By virtue of the lexicon, traders are by definition cannot be investors. When you invest in something, you look to the investment itself to provide you with earnings, which come out with either retained earnings, dividends or share buybacks. So if they disallowed trading of stocks similar to buying a farm or a apartment, when you expect your return to come from the value of the asset itself, that by devotion is an investment.
When you buy a stock expecting to make money from the the share price difference instead of the asset yourself, that is not investing, that is called speculating.
You can make money with both, but it is 2 different types of games. Never forget that. It is when you speculate and think you are investing, that is when the problem starts happening.
2019-02-16 05:22 | Report Abuse
Everyone needs a hobby.
The idea that money is the point of it all versus the discipline, focus, habit and the journey through life is the reason why most people don't succeed in life.
You should read the life of Rose blumkin, founder of Nevada Nebraska Mart.
At 89, her children forced her to retire. She was so angry she started a new carpet shop right opposite the giant store she founded and proceeded to take market share.
Her children had to apologize, buy the shop over give her back her job.
She died doing the thing she loved
What could be better in life?
2019-02-15 16:58 | Report Abuse
this guy talk a lot of info, but almost nothing is relevant and usable info. I found myself listening so long with no good results. Everything that he is saying can be taken into different context with 2 totally polar results.
I dont get it. Is he charging for this?
2019-02-15 13:47 | Report Abuse
unless that was for the esa jadi hydro power plant, which is definitely a scam. How is that lonely thing worth 218 million? Even looking at QL CAPEX of 300 million you can see the amount of work being done on all its assets.
Crazy.
2019-02-15 13:43 | Report Abuse
I have totally no idea. All I know is they said they are EPCC for that 30MW hydro power plant in Kota Marudu, Sabah... I've been there. No such thing exists. And they say the order book was for 218 million. Smells fishy.
Blog: What do you think about Short Term Trading and Long Term Investment?
2019-02-19 07:16 | Report Abuse
I take umbrage with this conception. Based on very long experience I have realize this to be false. Short term is subject to far more uncertainty than long term.
Let me talk football terms. Which is harder to do and achieve success for the club?
Offer Lionel Messi a massive contract when he had won a balon de oro, most goals scored in a season a few times and go big with him as your most expensive signing with a long term contract?
Or offer a few undersized kids needing growth hormones but with potential in Argentina a contract to play in Liga? How many actually turn out? If you bring in a hundred of those kids with 1% of Messi salary, you probably won't even know their names, much less how they will turn out tomorrow.
In stock terms, if you hold NESTLE long enough, your risk and uncertainty factor inherently become less, because your earnings and profits have far outweighed any incoming risk. In the long term, if you held nestle long enough, even if meteor hits Malaysia and destroys entire population and all factories, you would still be up on dividends gained.
I think short term trading has far greater uncertainty and risk compared to long term. I keep trying to find someone to do the Warren buffet 10 year bet between active investing and passive investing, to no avail.
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As we know, long term investment will be subject to more uncertainty factor compare to short term. This is for sure.