Be fearful when everyone is greedy. Be greedy when everyone is fearful.

It is exactly because everyone is focusing and buying oil & gas counters that the risk is rising. Just because you are making money doesn't mean you are dealing with less risk.

How risky is PPHB? The amount of money you can make by investing here is far more low risk than O&G goreng counters. Low risk medium reward is far more better than high risk high reward.

Later when the tide comes out then you can see who was swimming naked.

Disclosure: My wife and her brother each hold RM100K in shares bought at 0.46.

Slow and steady wins the race.

General Philip say the key is to never lose money!

December 25th, me and my wife will be at the Christmas dinner opening of Quay Hotel. See you there!

Raider Philip say this company should be worth at 200 million fair value (conservative), it should be priced at least at 120-150M. Wait till quarter results out. Be Patient. Be Cool.

PPHB Cannnteeekkkk RAIDER PHILIP SAY SURE WIN!

To be honest, calvin tan has many many good ideas. Too bad he never acts fully on his good ideas.

Actually scrap that. Calvin tan also has many many horrible ideas. Thank Jesus he never acts fully on his bad ideas too.

God is great all the time.

You can't change investors like from skipping investing in small capstocks. The monitoring is loose, the accounting is shoddy and cowboy, and bursa is basically non-existent. If investors like sslee can get fooled by xinquan and bursa does nothing to follow up or protect the quality of it's listed companies in it's bourse, retail investors themselves must see the underlying risk and invest with more margin of safety in the business itself, not the accounting reports.

One of the big faulty prime concepts investors have is in trusting the external accountants filling of events. Or even bursa confirmation of listings.

If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

Although definitely I am telling the majority of i3 investors to please don't invest in QL. Short it if you like Bring it's price down to pe35 or even pe10. But do it when the story changes, when the business starts to lose money. When their investments start failing. When all the chickens and fish start disappearing.

Those are all possible ( but not probable) outcomes.

But if the story has yet to change, why sell?

I'd like to sell all my stocks too. But every time I measure my opportunity costs versus other market stocks, I realize I still end up holding the same ones.

Having said that, I might actually begin to sell my public bank position after 7 years.

I mean chew on this.

In 2008, ql did 1.3 billion in revenue, 80 million in earnings, 350 million in net assets.

In 2013, ql did 2.15 billion in revenue, 130 million in earnings,880 million in net assets.

In 2017, ql did 3 billion in revenue, 200 million in earnings, 1.737 million in net assets.

Today, last quarter it had the best quarter revenue of ALL time with 920 million revenue in ONE quarter. And I estimate it will hit 1 billion in revenue this quarter ( crazy I know).

Why would you punish a company for performing beyond expectations? Is it the worry that a company that keeps going up only has one direction left to go? ( Down?)

When you see that a company has the foresight to acquire family Mart and do regional expansion? No losses, no reduction in revenue. Smart investments within its circle of competence?

You sell it just because it is PE50? Come on. See the context.

How many of you have a share in Berkshire Hathaway A? I do. For all the comments on margin of safety and value investing, I think 90% of the i3 community has never put their trust in Warren buffet, because they think his share is expensive and overpriced.

Those who did get rewarded.

If you sell this company 20 years later I'm sure you get much more than just 11 billion... Or you think land and properties and wisma QL will just amortize into smoke?

Godhand, your math is way wrong.
You are paying 11 bill for a company with 3 billion assets, a share in boilermech, 15000 hectares of palm oil land. A lot of properties that have not been restated in value. Tons of goodwill, biological assets. A well trained team of workers, 2000 employees. A 25 year long term franchise in family Mart. A gateway into international markets like Japan, Australia and China. A monopolistic business which is hard to compete with ( ask layhong). An integrated industries that does Marine, palm oil and poultry which everyone will always need ( unlike a Mercedes Benz), a 20 year history of never losing money. A shariah compliant company with easy access to Islamic funding.

Oh yeah and a company that generate a growing earnings of 200 million a year.

That is what you are paying pe50 for.

You are funny if you want to buy a quality company just for it's earnings.


>>>

godhand u are paying 11bil for company that is making roughly 200mil even if it grow by 10% every year which is considered superb performance. u will only get your return of 11bil 20 years later. U are still not making money after 20 years.

Hi 3ii,

For the information you require, I would have given it but since Ricky and choivo pissed me of previously I will show you how to get it but not for free.

The information can be gotten from maxincome resources sdn bhd final audited accounts.

You can purchase sdn bhd audited report via ssm. You just need to start an account registered with ssm. However you can only get latest financial accounting.

If you want 5 years with you need to register with ccriss. Is pretty expensive, so unless you have a wife who is a bank manager it might be slightly difficult.

For maxincome you only need 3 years worth though. All I can summarize is the capex requirement is lower than originally thought. The maintenance expenses averaged out is very low. And the revenue generation or unit is magnitudes in order compared to 7-11. In fact you don't need a financial report to see that. Just a simple check would tell you 7-11 seems other people's ice cream, other people's food, other people's drinks. Family Mart carries majority is private label items, fresh food and self processed soft serve ice cream. Which would have been earnings returns?

Can you help me here on QL?

1. How much capex for setting up Family Mart?

2. What is the ROI projected for Family Mart?



Of the capex spent last 3 years, how much was spent to grow Family Mart (capex for growth) and how much to maintain preexisting businesses (maintenance capex)?

Choivo,

Why would you pay for a company with zero growth? If earnings grew by 15% every year consistently, you need to look at compounded growth. That is how I buy my companies, I look for management who are able and willing to use retained earnings to do more as a business than I can as an individual. That's why I don't buy REITs.

If your earnings grow 50% per annum COMPOUNDED that would be far more than your 10% earnings yield. I continue to buy and hold QL because I believe in it's power of long term compounding ability. ( Historical 15% average revenue growth, 12% ROE). I believe moving forward at ql size growth will be more of a long gestation of capex followed by growth spurt in revenue and earnings.

I put great store in quality of management and business competitive advantage in my compounded growth probabilities.

Buying into simple, understandable business within my circle of competence gives me clarity.

I give you an example: there is a simple calculated probability( not certainty) where I can give a reasonable estimate ( inflation, palm oil prices, regional replication, new business units into precooked meal etc) where QL does 8 billion yearly revenue and 500 million earnings 10-15 years from now. They have the financial capability, management capacity and overall market industry size to achieve this.

For Time, where do you see this company going 10-15 years from now? What are the challenges, what are the incoming new technologies that will displace, how are it's financial capability, government interference. What is the probable future that time will find 10 years from now? Have you given it a thought in that sense?

Is the business clear enough for you to understand this?

Has the management shown a propensity to act faster and better than it's competitors?

The past gives it an indication, the current intrinsic value gives you an idea. But if you think you can apply DCF to get an accurate value
of returns off the entire lifecycle of time, that would be very dangerous, no?
>>>

If you paid 50 dollars for a company that make 1 dollar every year, you would have. 50 dollars in 50 years, or 3.8 dollars when 50 years worth of future cashflows is discounted back to present value. 92.4% destruction in value, unless there is growth. The only way you get 10% earning yield, is if earnings grow 50% per annum.

The best way i can put it, all investing is about betting on the future.

each company has a series of probable future. Some are more probable than others. But sometimes shit happen. But if it was an improbable future then no choice lo.

Your margin of safety, intrinsic value become useless.

The art is in trying to find a good probable future for your business. The better the management, the more probable it becomes. The easier the business, the more clear your future becomes.

What are the chances a well run company will continue to do well in the future?
Very high.

What are the chances a badly run company will continue to report losses? Very high.

Is it possible to have a turnaround? Yes definitely.

Is it probable? That is why I will never buy companies like jaks and carimin and DAYANG and talam and binapuri and naim. The probability of it happening is singing that is difficult for me to measure. Most investors buy on hope

Yes, they may have a turnaround, and may have big success. But Majority if the time, one or 2 good years does not change the intrinsic culture or quality of a company to perform over the long run.

Haw Liao! Exactly, different stage of expanding got different margin of safety. Different industry different measurements. Each company is different.

That's why when somebody tells me they have 30 stocks in their portfolio I scratch my head.

Either they are very pro or I very stupid.

I spend around 1 hour to digest an annual report and try to guess where the company is going. What the CEO is doing. What the company is achieving or not.

Most " investors" read annual/quarterly report, skip to the middle part for the cash flow, financial statement and revenue profit/loss and think they know the company. Can calculate the intrinsic value Liao.

I read the front part, middle part and back part. And most times I still don't understand the company future.

Disclaimer here, let me be the first to rebut raider by saying in no shape of form so I think QL is remotely similar to Amazon. I am just pointing out the argument that you cannot reduce intrinsic value to just a few formulaic decisions. That is why every year a new guy ask during the brk annual meeting how does Warren and Charlie measure intrinsic value they never give a straight simple answer. It's not because they won't give it to you because they are grumpy old men, it's because you can't simply apply one simple formula to everything. Even DCF is the closest, but that is merely a simple framework for understanding, they don't write and calculate it exactly, is simple more of an estimate than anything else.

Yes the concept of the lemonade stand is great. Intrinsic value is how much you can get out of the entire business throughout is entire lifetime.

Easy. But if you use simple DCF to evaluate a whole company wholesale, would you have bought Berkshire in 1999 during the tech bubble?( Or even knew how many new earnings streams would be introduced?)

Exactly. Using DCF as a true to God formula ( instead of a mental framework) is a wild goose chase.

Any level 1 thinker would have skipped Amazon at all cycles of it's growth and said it was overvalued. Even today many investors would not understand the earnings yield in paying pe150 for Amazon.

But those who practise level 2 thinking know what they are looking for.

I myself am a new investor in thinking deeper on a stock. I may be wrong on my stock choices to hold or buy more. But I find it funny that those who keep telling me to sell my QL like choivo and sslee just because it is currently pe50 are also those who have never bought a single share of QL in it's entire history since 2009.

But second level thinking states how can you measure intrinsic value of a company without putting in measurements of management quality ( think Warren buffet in Berkshire, is PE50 to pay in 1977 too high?) which is the ability to open new earnings streams for the company, The intrinsic value of monopoly ( if you think paying rm150 per kilo for white prompfret had nothing to do with QL and it's ability to export seafood to China is no sign of Monopoly....) How about the intrinsic value of being lowest cost producer in a huge market? ( How else would you value Amazon?)

I definitely agree in NOT paying to much for a company. But those analyst who said paying 80 cents for YINSON was too much? Or paying rm4 for YINSON today is too much? There is a reason why they are analysts, and the rest of us are investors.

Do you think analysts and remisiers act on their own analysis of stocks?

Using pe as simply a conjecture if value as I said is a way of missing out on companies like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google, all of which Warren said are quality companies but he missed, even thought he knew that they write a companies run by amazing management.

One thing you have to realize, Warren admits that he did not buy those companies because they were outside his circle of competence.

But as a millennial, should you avoid buying Amazon? Is it out of your circle of competence?

Warren has said before, if he was younger and Berkshire was smaller he would certainly have bought Amazon.

In an age where the competition is far more fierce due to ready information, one must be smarter in learning what stocks to buy.

You cannot use the same p/e ratio for ALL industries. The acceptable p/e for tech versus say banking is different.

You cannot use the same p/e ratio for all countries. The interest rates and monopolies and inflation rates are different.

Investing is an art, not a science. In mixing different colors, using different feels, using an the techniques at your disposal, you get a beautiful painting. A great painting and a cheap painting may use the same color red, but behind the microscope you see that the beautiful painting had many pigments layered over that turned into the color red.

If you turn investing into a simple science, then missing new groundbreaking companies is assured.

How can you just proxy CARIMIN and DAYANG simply on those metrics. Isn't that just silly and crazy?

That's like saying najib and mahathir are the same kind of leader just because both are Malay, do politics in Malaysia, and have long experience in malaysian politics.

Each company is different, goes on different tangents and each company has different management who make different decisions based on their company goals.

Good luck Calvin. At least now I know what kind of companies you and your buddies invest in.

As someone who lives in East Malaysia and has friends who are contractors of the different branches of the pan Borneo highway, and who has actually lived in Sarawak and have supplied to NAIM and DAYANG before, all I can say is wow. Calvin knows his stuff. Almost an the tenders are being renegotiated in pricing, and all the price are barely profitable for main contractors who don't have good internal teams. Those days of fat profits are long gone.

None of the proper sub-contractors want to work with them anymore, including us. Their payment schedule is horrendous. They are over leveraged and have no money. All dealings are in cash terms only. Cash before start work.

Their management is untrustworthy. The projects they take are beyond their scope of work and skill level. Even their best engineers and managers( people like Mr. Chan who left the mrt project halfway due to mass idiocy) have long gone and left for other MNC where they are paid triple the salary.

Margin of safety? There is no margin of safety when idiots are managing your company. Look at the board of directors. Not a single one is chosen for their skill sets, all are chosen because of the bloodlines or relationship.

Turnaround? Paper magic.

Long term the management is still the same. The company attitude and culture is still the same. The benefits and money politics are long gone.

Good luck.

Good luck sslee. I hope your investing future goes well. And thanks for the well wishes. I monitor my suck very closely, have been for the last 9+ years. I usually wait until the quarterly report to make my judgements instead of what happens in between, but point taken. I really don't think you know how to invest for the long term, but I supposed everyone has to learn and start from somewhere. I hope one day you will read my article and learn to apply more than just one simple metric like nta and p/e into your investment analysis.

Have a great investment bloggers day! Do us old men proud!

Exactly Jon!

That's what confused me about stockraider. He says he looks margin of safety, but goes ahead and promotes horribly risky companies with declining growths.

>>>
Raider bro,

When you talk about investing in general, you sound logical.

But the moment you talk about stocks, hy, evergreen, insas etc. You start to sound a little to very illogical.

I guess I was lucky that I found a business I understood, within my circle of competence, fit Peter lunch idea of long for businesses around you. But the was also many ql staff and workers, even my boss he knows the chia brothers directly and gets invited during CNY.

But did they all buy and hold QL? I don't think so.

There is much to be said on receiving public information, seeing the different future possibilities and acting on it.

That is where I think the efficient market school gets out wrong. Everyone gets the same info, they see 1+1, they think it equals 2. I see 1+1, I think it equals 2 now, but long term it can go to 11. That's part of being a contrarian.

To be honest you already knew since the day shell sold to hengyuan, that it was a fixer upper and hengyuan was going to have to do upgrades to the refinery plant to do ron92.

Downtime was almost guaranteed. It was a question of when.

Did that require insider knowledge or some fancy insight, I live it up to you to decide.

My exposure to QL is simply this:

I visited the plants to do upgrades and installations.
I met with the management, made friends with them. Never have they told me to buy QL shares or told me how their future quarterly report was going to go.
In terms of payment, QL was the best paymaster we ever had. We got paid on the dot. PO and VO was raised without request for discounts. They were willing to pay for airfreight, speed was more important than price.

If you asked any of QL customers they would tell you the same.

How many of them acted on and bought stock?

I think your idea of insider info and mine is totally different.

Kyy and aminvest went to Vietnam to view the status of the jaks power plant. How did that turn out?

Warren visited the HQ of GEICO, many others did but he saw something different that other people didn't.

I used the same operational framework for YINSON, topglove and public bank. I spend time to understand my investments, which is why I'm confused someone can buy 50 stocks and promote 20 more. Every stock I buy is carefully understood.

I could tell you my wife works at public bank. Does that constitute insider information that allows me to purchase stocks in public bank since 2012?

Most information are really available to serious investors and business owners. In fact I find it weird for me that everyone is investing heavily into hengyuan and CARIMIN without trying to understand the business model or visiting the plants. Hengyuan plant in is peninsular Malaysia, its not like it's in Brazil. Why not drive over, take a look, request for a tour? It's your investment!

What is the harm of understanding your business properly before betting the farm on it? In fact, if you wanted to buy a new bungalow house, wouldn't you want to visit the developer showroom, see the showhouse, interview your friend who works with the developer?

Should investing 1 million in pieces of paper warrant the same kind of dedication and attention?

I was exposed to ql since 2003 when the company I worked at started doing work for QL frozen plant and palm oil refinery in tawau and kalimba tan Uber ql boilermech. I got to see their capex growth first hand, and the number of new boats they buy, new feedmills and processing plants they do. From 2005-2008 I started to monitor their annual report, I really liked what I saw. But that time since owing money to a lot of people from bad stock market decisions I doubt myself in buying. In 2009, the annual report still doing very good things. After 4 years of good governance I decide to go in, after I saw Dr chia new expansion plans for QL.

So in some way insider information. But I think I stay in the stock for far longer than most insiders, because I kept buying the same stock for 10 years now from 2009 until 2019.

Who knows if the results for this quarter is also good, and the company no nasty surprise, I will continue to buy.

On contrary, I think Malaysia market is the lowest it had been in years. When all the other stock markets are flailing, I think this year Malaysia stock market will do very well overall.

I sure hope he does well, I did that for 3 years trading options. Then I've black swan event semua hilang.

:(

Should have followed icon8888 instead back then.

Obviously that is why I monitor closely every quarter results lo.

So far since 2009 has the story changed? What has its historical cagr been? Has it made a lost in any quarter? Has it failed to turn a profit?

You look at ql and you say it can't do it. I look at my report card and see no reason why I should doubt the management.

Have they ever failed me yet?

Has your wonderful insas ever failed you? For all it's margin of safety. This quarter it had lower revenue and profits of last year, and half the revenue of previous quarter and earnings mainly from selling it's inari stock. Is it growing organically?

Is it giving you any belief?

Stockraider average 15% yearly return on 45 stocks many years until today? Impressive. Sell buy sell buy everyday win big!

I can't fight general raider. He is the best!

Luckily this is not a competition. There is no winner or loser in the long term.

I only compete with my previous self.

Probability,

That is because you don't look at things the same way I do.
Let me give you some insight,

In 2009 when I bought ql they had 89 million earnings with 1.3 billion sales.
In 2013 they did 2.1 billion sales and 131 earnings.
In 2017 they did 3 billion sales and 200 million earnings.

What is the long term earnings that you can guess in 2022? How much revenue will family Mart add and earnings add in 2022?, How much will the other items add in 2022?

How about 2025? When do you think growth will end and earnings become flat? Is it in 2019? Will they crash their business this year?

Or do I have a insight on how ql in long term can get 8 billion revenue and 500 million earnings yearly flat when it exits growth stage?

Obviously I don't have an insight on that. That's why I rely on contrarianism from everyone in i3. Or optimism. Or idiotism. Or quarterly reports updates.

So far my journey since 2009 is on track and not done. I'm constantly changing my long term view on QL.

Same with YINSON. Same with topglove. Same with PBB. Same with STNE. When the story changes I sell.

Purebull if I am you, I will follow TAKAFUL closely. Their use of float is horrible ( they can only invest in shariah compliant stocks), but their underwriting profit from takaful family is fabulous.

Probability, Howard marks, Peter lunch, Warren Buffett all invest in the same way. There is no calculation of exact method if you are looking for it because investing is not a science. There is no formula that always works. It is more an art than science. It is a series of mindsets:

From all their annual reports, brk:

We select our marketable equity securities in much the same way we would evaluate a business for acquisition in its entirety.
We want the business to be (1) one that we can understand, (2) with favorable long-term prospects, (3) operated by honest and
competent people, and (4) available at an attractive price.

Purebull, you definitely can't use the same strategy forever. Ask kyy. Read the nifty fifty. Read the dogs of the Dow.

It works until it doesn't.

I think the one constant to ask this is to buy a stock where the future value you believe it's lower than is current value.

Margin of safety rule works in this way. It doesn't matter if:
1. You buy based on liquidated net asset value. You hope it will turnaround.
2. You buy based on future earnings. You hope the business will grow.
3. You buy based on wrong evaluation of information. You hope the results will be contrary to public belief.
4. You buy based on inside information. You have a crystal ball.

All of this is bought because you think you have margin of safety based on your idea of intrinsic value.

https://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/philip6/

You do not.
1. Management can waste retained earnings on horrible ideas. Sell assets at below your assumed value to pay for debts. No turnaround.
2. Management can miss earnings. Low growth and no growth gets the same results.
3. The market is right. You were just plain wrong.
4. Be wrong and waiting too long to be right is the same thing. You still register losses.

Purebull, I've invested long enough to know that right timing is just that poor bull (shit). Anyone who tells you they have indicators, technical analysis and charts that can help you pick the right timing to buy or sell stocks you should avoid. If more than 100 years of stock market, the smartest men on the planet (LTCM long term capital management) couldn't do it, if Warren buffet told you he can't do it.

Trust me. It can't be done.

For me being contrarian will always be based on facts and the quarterly reports. If QL is PE50 and doesn't do anything different and just sits on their laurels, if buta buta keep and close eyes knowing that the revenues and earnings will stagnate or even go down is just stupid to buy or hold.

But if you practise 2nd level thinking and realize that they are constantly improving their management and constantly investing your earnings in smart investments like sustainable aquaculture, family Mart, regional replication to Vietnam and Indonesia, and you foresee a future for the palm oil industry improving, why not go along for the ride?

Level 1 thinking: ql is overvalued pe50, it is bad. Sell.
Level 2 contrarian thinking: QL is overvalued pe50, but will people stop eating chicken, eggs and seafood? Will their factories and plants suddenly become obsolete? Will their capex today generate more revenue tomorrow? Will their investments into family Mart, Indonesia and Vietnam work out?, Will the revenue and profits be exponentially more 5-10 years from now? Yes? Then don't sell. Hold or Buy.

Being a contrarian means looking further, but don't be a contrarian just for kicks. If your house is on fire and someone points it out. Don't bloody go in.

QL Nestle pe50 is not a sign to sell or buy, it just means you have to understand why it is PE50. Do you know why Nestle is PE50? Why QL is PE50? If you know then it is possible to be a contrarian. If you know next quarter report QL revenue and earnings is going to do badly, can do idss and short QL. But if you are hoping QL price at pe50 is going to drop just because it is PE50, that is not being a contrarian when you short.

That's just plain stupid.

Diversification is for those who don't know how to value their stocks properly. They lack clarity and business sense, so they think to reduce their risk by buying other stocks (which they also don't know as well).

But if you know your risk and stock well, why bother diversifying into other lesser understood stocks.

You will never convince me after you buy into bjcorp, weida, etc etc will, you decide to diversify into bad stocks like PRTASCO,talam and binapuri is a GOOD idea. Calvin tan did (or did not) that to 50 stocks.

How can that be a good business strategy? It is impossible for you to know all those stocks well enough all the time, otherwise how would you lose money on those turds?

The answer is you don't know well enough about those stocks to make an educated decision. Diversification should be about opportunity costs, where you buy other stocks because you think those others might do better than the stocks you currently hold.

The risk is in not understanding your stocks. NOT in diversification.

But believe what you want. You have repeated your sentence word for word in every forum page with the same thought process. Same words, all in capslocks. No new info, nothing new to learn. We get it.

It's getting boring.

But I'm sure you also bought your Hong leong based on pe ratio also back in 1998, or am I talkcock also?

One measures the float, the " free money" a bank has that allows them to give loans on free money.

The other measures the risk of their loans, how high the risk of being caught naked when the tide come out.

Book value is important, but measuring based on a single metric of price versus book value is just as bad as measuring based on earnings alone.

If you knew that you would probably have bought more Hong leong raider.

I give you chance to explain why I bought public bank since 2012. I give you hint, deposits and loan assets quality. You know how to measure those?

Hmmmm.... Anyone who simply just uses p/e as a valuation measure of banks is either a new investor, or someone who didn't know how to value banks. You have to look at it's book value, and the quality of it's book. As most banks are very closely related to a high degree, you have to be more discerning in the metrics you use to measure.

I think we should ask be envious of raider more leh. He invested in HL for so long since 1998, from rm1 to rm20 with many many dividends.
Problem is, he lack the conviction to realize opportunity costs. If he put in all his quarterly salary, savings, margin loan and borrowing every quarter since 1998 until 2019, I think he can become substantial shareholder in Hong leong and make more money than kyy.

Too bad.

I think one big question you need to ask is:


Is time cheap fibre selling cost versus tmnet fibre selling an issue of the legacy rates of tm wanting to earn more or is it some technology that only time has that allows it to sell at much lower prices?

If it is not, and a price war begins ( remember the old days of Digi versus maxis commercials),

but this time between fibre operators
Gigabroadband
Maxis fibre internet
Tm unifi
time fibre

And you add in 5g/6g incoming from cell operators (which no one ever saw coming 10 years ago)
Digi
Celcom
Maxis

Then you add in the alternative internet suppliers who are coming out with more offerings and better technology ( never expected 10 years ago either)
Measat

The race for cheap internet will become far more integrated, more low prices and commodities and the company with the lowest "internet" costs will succeed in the long term.

Who it is? No one knows. What I do know is South Korea charges 44000 won or rm159 for 1 gigabit (1000 MB) broadband speed access(via multiple methods). Who in Malaysia has the capex and the capability to undergo big investments like this in the future?

That is who I feel will be the winner in the future.

What is fair price? That's The question you should ask.

No one ever expected Amazon to be a trillion dollars company, except those who were willing to pay pe350 for it back in the day.

Not that I'm telling you to go buy QL, but I'm just proving you wrong.

More facts you are wrong, and pe and valuation are 2 didn't things:
Warren bought and held:

Suncor Energy Inc. (USA) (SU): 478.78
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd (AXTA): 106.42
Liberty Media Corp (LMCA): 132.74

Of course at his stage, it would have been much more difficult to sell stocks without causing a big rip in panic selling.

It is important to remember that he bought in 1988, when coke was actually cheap because of some bad decisions. At the time, was a contrarian investment case.

But even if he did pay to buy more in 1998, he would still not have let his shareholders down.

Coke was the highest P/E stock Warren Buffett had in his portfolio.

KO traded over 50 times earnings during 1998. And Buffett didn't sell his shares.

Warren regretted not investing in Amazon too. He said he knew it was a wonderful company, but the price asked was to great.

He was both wrong to be right and right to be wrong.

And today the share price of latitude is 3.88. superb destruction of value.
Maybe what the 2nd level thinking should have been was the viability of the guaranteed rising costs of the 2 more depressed raw ingredients in local furniture industry to it's bottom line aka labor and rubber wood prices?

Perhaps samarang should have taken a look at the furniture made and sold by latitude and thought why would you invest in a company based in Vietnam, domiciled in Malaysia, 95% of it's products exported to the USA, and a product list that no self respecting Malaysian or Vietnamese would ever think of buying for his own home?