Why make things so difficult for yourself.

If you don't trust funny buy.

After buy and blame 80 year old man the only shameful one is yourself.

Somebody catching on.

TEOSENG results good.
CCK results good.
Layhong results good.
Poultry and feed stock companies report big profit.

End of the year holidays where everyone overbuy.

Rising price of eggs and poultry. High demand lower supply.

Moving on.

How often do you get to borrow 200 million USD and pay back 2%? The only risk is if you do too well and the share price goes up, then it turn into equity anyway. I like it, better than rights issue...

It's already fully taken up. Bookmaking was faster than you can say " Morgan Freeman!"

Ummmm I don't really see any problem, it is a 5 year bond wth 2% coupon, making at end of period 5 years, TOPGLOV has to pay back 9.04% of the loan. Not bad for 200 million USD bond.

The only problem I see is the exchangeable bond, if owners saw the profit they could dilute and sell the bonds for shares ( so it becomes company equity). That way topglove doesn't have to pay back any bond coupons or payments.

The only thing of note then is the conversion price, 20% of reference price, meaning they can only convert it at a cost of 6.204 per share. Ok what.

I'd take it, we get to clear the bond and the dilution is done with shareholders in mind.

Panic sellers indeed.

Ummmm I think somewhere you are wrong la 3iii. I'm sure if they have 680 million in cash and cash equivalents, if they take a short fix deposit or buy high grade sir term bond, at least got 3-4% may.

Fix deposit at 4% should at least get 24 million interest income.

I'm sure SSLee can explain what is going on...

Those who use only sort term share price chart comparison instead of long term business performance is just amateurish. It's like saying wow this month naim it's sure Chun Chun call business is the best o&g up up up. But not noticing how the business is losing market share and generating loss of equity over multiple years.

Short term price comparison is just... Stupid.

Long term business performance is better. Can you do that instead?

Level 2 day thinking. I thought you like Howard marks?

>>>
I shall post in reply in another write up comparing Ql chart to Dialogue price chart for all to study

I apologise. That was a little bit below the belt

However my remark remains true, if you are buying INARI, and everyone who likes the future of inari, then why is INSAS selling INARI? The best reason ( and I believe only) reason to sell a stock is if you find another one that is better than the one you currently own.

What is INSAS buying with proceeds of INARI sales?

If only I didn't hate flying to kl so much. I so miss the good old days of landing in subang airport and driving 5 minutes to the house. Klia is such a chore.

Anyone going? I wonder if got q&a session. Night be interesting to meet some of my idols and goreng them. Hahaha.

Yeah to be honest I find i3 small time investors to be very small minded. Kyy give you 30% gain, just shut up be happy and thank him for free advice.

Do you know how much those subscription sellers and trading sifus here are asking you to pay for your education even before making a single cent? If win it is because of them, if lose is your own fault. Those kind of sifus are a done in a dozen.

Yewyin33 at least it's a man with balls of pure adamantine. He buy and sell he show conviction. If earn everyone happy praise him. If lose you blame him? For what?

Actually qqq, Jon choivo not wrong leh. He hedged. He said either make a small lost or a small profit.

Either way he say he will take that queue at 5.4 from woolei.

Whether falling knife or shooting cannon tomorrow no one will know.

But probability states that if you didn't go on margin it should be ok la.

Oh wait, did Jonathan Choi portfolio invest on margin? Good luck! My advice, if you don't know what you are doing, don't take margin.

If you need a loan, I can take payment in kidneys.

Lucky this quarter also can chop off a finger from bleeding INARI and sell to buy food. At least still got 12 million in sold fingers in so called associate. Every year insas share in INARI dropping. Why abandon "good" company and "invest" in rubbish like that Mongolian guy doing his vigcash?

If INARI making money and got nice dividend, why need to chop off? Isn't INSAS making good income from it's other businesses? Why don't use free cash flow and earnings generated from other businesses to buy more stock in INARI? Buy over and become a full subsidiary la,

I forgot, INARI is no GEICO. INSAS is no Hathaway.
INSAS would rather invest millions in sengenics, numoni, fast fashion and other loss making companies than buy more shares in INARI, which is it's biggest winner.

It's like that rich son whose father owned shares in public bank. Every year Mr teh give his son dividends. What does he do with it? Buy Ferrari. Buy Lamborghini. Open a cyber cafe. Open a bubble tea house. Open a pub.

When the father cut him off and threw him out, he realize all his investments not making money. Soon sell Ferrari. Close cyber cafe. Close bubble tea house. Close the pub.

When he went back home to apologize to Dad and turn a new leaf. Found out the father had already gone to Holland.

The end.

Are you talking about Sendai? Or how an owner that awards a 500 million shipbuilding contract.... To himself. Those kind of companies?

This is a crap counter. The results this quarter is the same as the results last year quarter, and the previous year before that, and the previous year before that.

This is what we can in the industry hitting terminal value. Nothing to look forward to. All talk. No economic action.

With a name like SASBADI, would you even consider buying these educational products for your children?

When you have options like McGraw Hill, Pearson and Wiley's, why buy a no name brand for your children future?

The most important thing is education is not the quality of education, but the reputation of the education.

If SASBADI had a metric and supporters where 40% if it's readers end up in ivy league schools or get 10as versus comparable educational tools, then I'd believe in something.

If the peer group and writers if SASBADI are Oxford lecturers or novel laureates or some crap like that which increases the reputation of the group as a whole, then I'd believe in the future of it's imprint.

As it is, it's just another penguin books.

Remember them?

Moving on.

>>>
bowman If you are into this counter, look back three weeks. Grab every news item, listen to every broadcast. The reasons are there for the rise. One of which is its investment into educational products for pre-schools across the region, particularly Singapore. Go figure why now.

Calvin, can don't put dialog in the same breadth as ql, Nestle and Dutch lady? Your research is very flawed and connections very thin.

You don't even know what dialog does it what it's management classifications are.

Firstly, dialog is a pe35 company with terminal growth in deepwater terminals approaching. It is diversifying upstream and downstream into epcc( which is where companies like sumatec, sapura, bumi and carimin are ending up).

Dialog is in no way has any "moat". Moat of convenience, maybe.

Their major acquisitions making them money is for the supply base and storage tanks in tanjung langsat and PDT.

Do you think there is any special contract saying that we can only use the dialog storage tanks? Or any special license where we can only use dialog services?

Right now, dialog is used because other o&g epcc firms had one foot in the grave with contracts that dealt with shared barrel production revenue.

Back then we all laughed at dialog because they don't want to earn big money. They content to earn small change with just tank rental.

But now suddenly when oil prices go down you say dialog with it's conservative 10% earnings to be a wonderful company?

How about the fact that it is now pe35, with a business that will hit it's terminal growth soon. (How many new tanjung langsat can you find?). Or the fact that it has 3 billion in liabilities. And growing.

Moreover when you want to company with QL, Nestle, dlady etc you want to be comparing super stable companies with low chance of nasty surprises.

Do you think their downstream operations epcc and upstream will run into problem? Have you considered the incoming nasty surprise in epcc prin with the contract for

This is the part where I become the oracle of Kota Kinabalu.

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - Malaysia’s AirAsia X Bhd recorded its third consecutive quarterly loss on Thursday, dragged down by an impairment provision while rising fuel costs also dented its performance in the October-December period.he airline’s average fuel price rose 29 percent from $69 to $89 per barrel during the period.

>>>>

hi felicity,thanks for catching my error. I meant to say it is 30%+, or (2,821,124) as per 2017 entire operating expenses costs, the biggest and most major expense in its operation (8.3 billion). And something that is totally uncontrollable and unproducable by air asia , as hedging on the jet fuel spot futures can only go so far.

Note that the net profit for Air Asia in 2017 is 1,571,374. a 15-20% swing in jet fuel prices can hit the bottomline of Air Asia very heavily. something that we smile when crude oil prices is low, but we will rue when we realize it will be difficult to pass the costs down easily.

There are two types of people who lose money. Those who don't know anything. And those who know everything.

Ok moving on.

Calvintaneng, any idea when you think insas will reach it's nta of 2.54? I'm sure if you pray hard enough Jesus will tell you. Or is HIS silence telling you.... Never?

LENO CAAANTEEEKKK!

It's a simple equation. INSAS is inari big shareholder with 19%, if it goes down, INSAS goes down.

When it comes out.

I expect the terminal value going forward will be 80-90 million every quarter going forward with low profit margins, 2-4 cents per share. 5 years from now, carimin will be just another handout company hoping for a slice of a very competitive pie with no competitive advantage versus all the other market players. Terminal value met.

Moving on.

Higher revenue means more billing, more maintenance and topside work done, completed and carried out. Lower earnings means it cost them more to get the same amount of work done (due to monsoon season). This is basic engineering costings.( I have experience working in multiple platforms before)

Now I realize kyy doesn't have a crystal ball. I start to smell bullshit.

How can he say less maintenance contract work done, unless CARIMIN has a special rule where they can bill performa invoice to Petronas first for upcoming work to be done?

Jon! Can you share your rm5000 appreciable report on your PETRONM and why it has a spectacular crash today? I'm really interested in learning why refining is not it's main money maker.

PETRONM just had its quarterly report out. Anyone else thinks hengyuan will suddenly outperform?

I think you got the not money maker part right.

>>>

Choivo Capital Oil price does not really matter for PetronM. Its not the main money maker.
13/02/2019 15:05

Choivo! Time to be like Jackie Chan and take a punch! Chill and watch movie with free popcorn!

Sheldon! Time to be like Stephen chow and catch some falling knives.

I've read all of it except for deep survival. Will try to pick it up.

Funnily enough, the best books that I thought were very important to investing was from Malcolm Gladwell.

I thought tipping point was the best ever in thinking about how to analyze growth and virality, social psychology, and why some ideas with and others flounder.

I use the concepts that when I build a mental model of how a business will work out over time.

Hi Fabien,

To be honest I haven't looked at LCTITAN closely ever since I saw that their IPO was priced too high. I usually wait for companies to perform for a few years to get more clarity on their business strategy, advantages and growth prospects.

I did drive by their plant in pasir gudang, I thought that their space was limited and not so easy to grow in size and efficiency. Their plant turnover for maintenance was a bit slow for the size, and I felt their feedstock source would have difficulty in hedging and planning prices properly.

Other than that your guess is as good as mine. I don't even know who their end customers are ( Korea local?) So I wouldn't know much.

Sometimes I wish all annual reports are written similar to Berkshire, less pretty pictures and filler info, more info on what they have done to the business, the thought process behind it, the challenges they are facing and what they are doing about it. More pertinent information I guess. You basically have to start everything in reverse i.e. from the major shareholders, notes on the financial statements and backward to analyze properly what it going on...

>>>
Phillip, i bet you have done your comparison between PCHEM and LCTITAN of which you choose the former. Mind to shed some light on your choice?

Hi teoct, to be honest, my belief is a government that governs least, governs best. It is up to others to decide if their margin of safety is in owning many homes opposed to bonds or equities. I would not like to force people into telling them what they can or cannot buy.

I think those who know their investments best whether homes, shares or bonds should stick to it. I wouldn't want the government telling me that I can only buy shariah compliant stocks, just as I wouldn't want government to tell me what kind of house I can own.

AEON perpetuity bond sounds good. I'll look into it.

Thanks!

I would love to have adult discussion, but one "party" keeps assuming I have a bone to pick with him. At least in official page, if he comments too far, call all report for abuse and remove his posts.

I "invested" in forex in the 90's, never again. Zero sum games are stupid. Malaysia almost went bankrupt betting against George Soros in '97. I almost did too.

Landed properties I only need 1 to live in. Buying more is just greedy and denying another family a roof over their heads. Housing speculation is unnecessary, and selling, maintaining and servicing a house is very irritating for an old man like me.

Name me one high grade bond that performed better than PCHEM, QL and TOPGLOV since 2010. With the share splits and dividend yield. I'd look into it.

The best investment I think it's still equities. Question is what equity has lower risk ( compared to bonds) and better growth opportunities...

Other than it is a storage company that charges on flat rate similar to yinson with a good growing profit with exposure to PIC I have totally no idea. I like how the rates are standardized with no relation to oil price per barrel (as compared to the negotiations of bumi armada and sapura), but I guess it will continue to do well in the future, it is in a niche market after all.

Hmm that is probably true. But there is also usable and important information, and unlikely black swan events.

Risks are everywhere. If I take into account ALL pertinent risks, I would probably see shadows behind every curtain.

Luckily my wife is a trained actuarist. She has guided me into learning how to evaluate risks. Which she has earned her chocolate and flowers this year.

For me, I understand there is no actual way to mitigate risks. That is why I wait for quarterly reports to show me what the business is doing and how I should respond.

At least I still have QL, Topglov, Yinson and NYSE:STNE to fall back on. Although everyone keeps telling me to sell my stocks because it is far too expensive.

But I keep asking myself, sell it and buy what?

That is what the university economists tell you when they invent terms like beta and alpha and R.

Jeff bezos 99% networth is in one stock. Amazon.
Warren buffett 99% networth is in one stock. Berkshire.
Bill gates 99% networth is in one stock. Microsoft.
John D Rockefeller 99% networth was in one stock. Standard oil.
Andre Carnegie 99% networth was in one stock. It became US steel.

The fact is, they say that volatility equals risk. And the best way to fight risk is to diversify into multiple stocks.

I am of the firm belief that your BIGGEST risk is in not knowing your investments. If you know your investments enough to weigh opportunity costs, you will by nature gravitate to the investment that makes the most bang for buck.

If you dont know your investments well enough, it is true what you say risktransformer, it is definitely better to just buy the index or basket of funds and invest in the overall growth of malaysia. Hopefully we can find one where the asset management costs is below 0.04% management fees, no liquidation cost. I dont think there exists one in malaysia.

>>>

When u compare your PCHEM investment with stockraider's INSAS, u think u r minimizing risk but from the way u keep on compounding your investments in the same few stocks.... u r actually increasing your risks whenever u top up your investments.

titus, 50% is from petronas and 50% is from saudi. crude oil.

Saudi only reserve the right to sell more to PIC. Up to 70% if they want to.

Think of it this way. black oil from the ground you dig up is basically unusable.

You need to refine it then got use.

Saudi is smart because it realize petronas is far more efficient than saudi in managing its refining plants and process than saudi refiners. And most of all PIC is closer to its customers in SEA. So that's why they reserve the right to make more money.

The reason why this is important is because crude oil won't explode. After refining it becomes jetfuel(kaboom),kerosene(kabummm), Ron95(boommshakakaka), diesel, naphta, etc etc. These can go kaboom. So it is better to produce nearest to the major growing population centers. (asia and china and india) to reduce risk.

Thats why I think PIC is a gamechanger. It will be the cheapest production center this side of SEA, with the fastest population growth ever. Its basically a guaranteed revenue and earnings for years to come (if no nasty surprise la boom boom kabooom) with 50% earnings of it going to retirees like ppteh and me in dividends.

God I love non-taxable income!

Speaking of which, you need to support Calvin Tan. He showed us the way, god save his black soul!

If christian, attend church and pray for him. If not christian, attend once just for kicks and donate for him.

titus! That is exactly how I started. And it is the smart way to do it. Don't listen to any sifus, make your own decision and dip only, don't need to go crazy all in. The best is if you like the stock, understand more about it. if the quarterly report is good. Buy more. slow and steady, no need to sailang. As long as you are right, no need to be so kancheong. There are many quarters left until RAPID goes full run and production goes all out. Then you can smile big big. I spent 10 years buying QL since 2009. I expect I'd probably be spending many years more buying PCHEM.

However....

There is the other material list(from annual report), where the T&C goes badly and the entire PIC goes out in a big ball of fire. It could happen and it would be a huge disaster for a 27B USD investment. Poof. But chances are low la. Nothing in investing is guaranteed.

qqq3 - you do realize that PCHEM just went from 67bil market cap to 71 bil market cap right? How would I even be able to start a bull run. Must be the fake photo i'm using borrowing choivo name.

4 billion in market value increase would be like buying 8 500 million penny stock companies. But the share price doesn't matter. What matters is what happens 2 weeks from now when the earnings come out and you have an idea what is happening with the company.

like I said. PPHB is a good company. will definitely do well in the future.

edited title. this is not an insas thread. please stop posting insas here and polluting pchem discussion. please post elsewhere.

No one wants to declare any war with you. No one cares about you or your existence. No one is interested in replying your message. I think thanks to you from now on all further blogs I do I will disallow posting of replies.
Very low class speculator. Totally zero temperament to be an investor. I highly doubt you invested 200k in INSAS. Since when is investing a competition?

Bye kid. I will stop replying you at all from now on.

Can you just go away? Please start your own thread so people can reply to you. You are just drowning other people's post and posting recycled information just for your own enjoyment.

3iii! I beg to differ. I sold my PBB at 25. Haha.

PCHEM i bought start from 8.15-8.33. Today it is 8.87. Do I sell with 5% gain?

Why sell at all? Buy and forget? No. Buy and read every quarterly report.

For short term trading, it is a very careful strategy that needs to be micromanaged. I'm sure steven is very good at what he does. I wish him all the best. I put my trading philosophy in the too hard pile almost 19 years now thanks to halim bin saad and renong and aokam perdana. And it hasn't been for the lack of trying.

I just realized that trading strategies seem more akin to buying black on the roulette table and it working out ten times in a row. But when the red color comes, there is just no way to predict this. Which is even funnier when the baccarat tables start showing me the previous results of banker/player like it means anything.

I finally found out that short term trading depends on psychology (thats what momentum is). Herd psychology is by definition irrational. How to make money from crazy people?

I just gave up and decided buying businesses on the possibility that great businesses will make more money over time than lousy business makes more rational sense.

hi felicity,thanks for catching my error. I meant to say it is 30%+, or (2,821,124) as per 2017 entire operating expenses costs, the biggest and most major expense in its operation (8.3 billion). And something that is totally uncontrollable and unproducable by air asia , as hedging on the jet fuel spot futures can only go so far.

Note that the net profit for Air Asia in 2017 is 1,571,374. a 15-20% swing in jet fuel prices can hit the bottomline of Air Asia very heavily. something that we smile when crude oil prices is low, but we will rue when we realize it will be difficult to pass the costs down easily.

dead cat bounce. Entire bursa market is undervalued. Bursa has been laughing stock for 4 years, so now that foreign investors fleeing from usa/china tradewar are investing in more stable markets like malaysia (after election, while other SEA incoming elections). You could throw a brick at any stock now and get 10-30 % short term.

The game starts after quarterly results out. That's when you see the trading stops and the investing begins.

Personally, no one knows what will happen tomorrow. But what I can assure to retirees is that PCHEM is the safest stock you can buy right now. It's gain may not be as exciting as buying derivatives and options, but I can guarantee you can sleep well at night.

5-10 years from now you can also sleep well at night.

Well, if you already knew news is going to be good whether or not this QR results come out good or bad, it would be pointless to wait. I didn't.

titus: you crazy ah? If penny stocks probably la. This is a 68 billion dollar company. my 1.4 million stocks barely make any dent la. EPF sells more in 1 day than my entire exposure haha.

But i must admit, Malaysia market now is so undervalued after 4 years of recession, that almost any stock (almost) will have a dead cat bounce.

the real game is when all the quarterly reports start coming out every quarter. That is when the trading ends and the investing part comes.

TM, MYEG, gamuda and bstead is not good stocks. Never have been. Never will. Those are companies which are only based in Malaysia and can only compete locally. Political stocks, construction stocks that can only compete locally I don't really see any point in following long term.

For me, the stocks that I bought and held for 10 years now since 2009 was QL, topglove, pbb and YINSON. Those are Malaysian companies which I saw growth and are competing regionally and internationally. I have bought and held these stocks, and have been average buying continuously after every quarter for 40 quarters.

Obviously you need some technical knowledge if you want to buy, you need to buy at a fair price. Like right now ql and NESTLE is pe50, true but it is unfair to assume that just because the price now is high didn't mean you will lose money.

Just ask Amazon. Facebook. Coca cola in the 90's. There are exceptions to every rule. Buy high can go higher, just as buy low can go lower.

I'm sure trading will make money. But thinking that only good price to enter is a dangerous consideration if you don't look to the business itself first.

If we just look at simple price movements, sapura:
2017 was rm2.20(adjusted)
2018 was rm0.65
Today it is rm0.30 cents.

Is this a good time to enter? If simply based on price momentum sapura seems to be all time cheap. Buy!

But if you look closer, when a company starts printing free share issues to "borrow" money, and use it to pay their billions of dollars of debt instead of growing their business, I would say this is the most dangerous time in its history as a company.

Trading can definitely make small money. But I doubt anyone will have the temperament (or the balls of platinum) to sailang millions of dollars into sapura sell house sell family.

Warren buffet put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Berkshire.
Chia song kun put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Ql.
Bill gates put 99% of his net worth into 1 stock. Microsoft.
I put 90% of my networth into 4 stocks. In 10 years holding and building my exposure ql, topglov, pbb and YINSON they have done wonders for me.


Which is better in the long run? I may be wrong you may be right, but I'm still trying to find a short term trading sifu who has a portfolio over 10 years and growing consistently 20% compounded average yearly who is willing to show his portfolio gains and strategy for scrutiny.

Lionel Messi track record still far better than those 17 year old Argentinian kids from God knows where.

I believe a good entry is never as important as picking the good stock at a fair price.

Why? Even if you have the best entry you will never sailang. It's not feasible because best entry is usually for lowest point of a stock in its history, meaning problems in the horizon. Optimism in the face of problems is admirable, but usually fatal.

Picking a good stock(at a fair price) you are able to sailang, because you are participating in the growth and success of a company without any stormcloud in the horizon. Sure it will come, but if is not there yet, why be pessimistic? Pessimism when things are looking very good is a sad way to live.

Having said that, it is almost impossible to buy great companies at liquidation prices, you always have to pay a premium for quality. Nestle,dutchlady, topglove, Hong Leong, QL, yinson, PCHEM, hartalega, are all companies that have returned multibaggers throughout the years but have always been under the radar of short term traders. Thank God.

I wouldn't have it any other way.

I think a big misconception is also that playing stock market is easy.
Buy and hold and forget what you are doing!
Just buy special indicators based on modified stochastics and moving average, buy when signal is right and uptrend detected, sure win!

Warren advocates long term investing yes, but not buy and forget. Monitor quarterly reports to see how the business of performing, then make your next choice.

One plays on psychology the other plays on business results. Both need careful study.

Stock market is not for the lazy. Actually, nothing worthwhile is.

Author is very right saying we should have enough information at our control which includes technical and fundamental.

But I think the more important ingredient is how to build up your second level thinking (Howard marks) of removing unnecessary information, trading a detour understanding of the information given, and making the right choice.