@effulgence

Any update to your thesis write up post Q2 earnings?

I wonder why they keep so much cash. sitting idling. equity base is 688mil. cash is 694mil, stripping of debt...net cash about 495mil.

Bonus issue would attract more retail investors by increasing its liquidity/float

EPS 90sen...earnings about 7billion.

enterprise value of this company is about 55billion after taking in net cash of 16billion.

Very strong cash flow generation. annualised cash flow of 8 billion.

To me, the decision is pretty clear.

This company is amazing cash flow machine. Operating CF a whopping RM43.7mil against net profit RM18mil. 2.34 times of earnings

Churning abundant of cash...

Not too shabby. Above 10mil quarterly profit.

EPS at RM1, you are implying PE of 10x. HLI has always trade above 10x multiple because if you striped out their net cash (which is about 50% of market cap), it's ex-cash PER is less than 7x.

GCB end the year 2021 @ RM2.80. 1H earnings increased 39.6% y-o-y.

You are getting much better value for money at current prices

Maximisation of operational efficiency bear fruits.

Snapshot of FY2022 financial results
- Revenue 2.32bil (up 3.12%)
- Net profit - 173.4mil (up 30.14% against 133.24mil in 2021)
- GP margin 13.99%
- NP margin 7.47%
- Operating CF - 50.98mil (about 29% of net income)
- Capex 94.4mil invested in 650,000 sq ft facility in JB

terrence is still relatively new in this field of investing. gradually, over time, you will learn investing is not about excel spreadsheet

Posted by terence775 > 43 minutes ago | Report Abuse

learn the fundamentals and derive your own fair value to the company by understanding the business, challenges, opportunities, and risks.

if life gives you a second chance, an opportunity to go back in time. just a little bit..1 year back. i can bet with much certainty, with hindsight, that the Kuan brothers would not have taken the decision so quickly to expand their capacity. unfortunately in reality, market forces may not work in your favor. because if every of your competitors are buying up land, build factory and expand their production line. you risk being left.

lets take this a lesson to learn about this industry dynamics/landscape. when you have a low barriers of entry, with product commoditization and almost zero product differentiation, low switching costs., etc, the industry as a whole is at risk facing the inevitable negatively skewed imbalances towards the supply-side vs. demand-side forces, due to simple fact of human nature extrapolating the short term massive profit generation induced by the pandemic into the future

Back to where it belongs...RM7+

2Q GDP was robust, amidst low base effect. But still, growth is projected at the upper range bound of 6.8%. Banks are the best proxy for economic growth. Inflation seems to peak in the US but rising rates will benefit Banks generally on a net effect basis. Previous credit provisioning will see a reversal and thus boost the bottom line. With higher profit, expects higher dividends.

Furthermore, TNG Digital is doing well. Valuations are still reasonable.

Malaysian electricity utility Tenaga Nasional Bhd plans to begin the process next year for a potential US$1 billion (RM4.44 billion) listing of its power generation business, sources close to the matter told Reuters.

In what would be the country's largest initial public offering (IPO) in a decade, TNB Power Generation Sdn Bhd, known as TNB Genco, could be valued at about US$4 billion, the sources said, declining to be named owing to the confidential nature of the matter.

Proceeds from the offering will be used to grow TNB Genco's renewable energy portfolio, they added.

Maybank bullish SOP TP 4.90

Yinson enters exclusivity agreement with bp to reserve FPSO Nganhurra for PAJ project in Angola

inson, through its subsidiary Yinson Acacia Ltd, through its subsidiary Yinson Acacia Ltd, has entered into an exclusivity agreement with bp Exploration (Angola) Limited (“bp”), as the operator of the Block 31 Contractor Group (the “Agreement”) for the reservation of FPSO Nganhurra, a floating, production storage and offloading (“FPSO”) vessel for use in bp’s proposed 10 well subsea Palas, Astrea and Juno Oil Fields (“PAJ Project”) based in Block 31, Angola.

Under the Agreement, Yinson will exclusively allocate FPSO Nganhurra to bp for the PAJ Project until 31 December 2022 with an option for bp to extend until 30 June 2023 whilst the parties negotiate a contract to convert, operate, maintain and lease the FPSO for the PAJ project (the “Lease and Operate Contract”). The Lease and Operate Contract, which is anticipated to include a 10-year fixed term, is expected to be executed by the end of 2024 subsequent to bp reaching final investment decision.

Yinson holds an exclusive purchase option for FPSO Nganhurra until 30 June 2023 with its owners, Woodside Energy and Mitsui E&P Australia Pty Ltd, with an option for Yinson to extend such exclusive purchase option until 31 December 2023.

Yinson Production Chief Executive Officer Flemming Grønnegaard commented, “This Agreement emphasises Yinson’s position as the preferred contractor in executing FPSO redeployment projects, which have significant capex and schedule advantages, for established oil & gas players such as bp. We have recently completed two successful redeployment projects, which are FPSO Abigail-Joseph and FPSO Helang, and the Group is currently engaged in a redeployment delivery for FPSO Atlanta. We are confident that our track record, technical knowledge and experience in this industry will support and fulfil bp’s business needs.”

FPSO Nganhurra has a production capacity of 100,000 barrels of oil per day and was built by Samsung in 2006. The FPSO, which operated at the Enfield field in Australia until autumn 2018, is currently laid up outside Labuan, Malaysia.

Keck Seng has been "undervalued" like ever in decades...

Chocolate is one of the most popular sweet treats on the planet. Global annual sales are nearing $150 billion. As consumers in developing countries acquire more wealth, chocolate consumption is rising along with it. Some estimates point to sales of cocoa products reaching $200 billion per year by the end of the 2020s — representing an average annual growth of about 5%.

As part of the consumer staple sector of the stock market, chocolate isn't the highest growth investment theme out there. However, demand for chocolate and other sweets isn't going away anytime soon. In fact, chocolate sales are still rising as consumers in developing markets join the middle class, and previously out-of-reach products such as chocolate become a more regular part of the grocery shopping list.

their capital management strategies is a little bit complicated and not easy to comprehend for a lay person due to their usage of perpetual securities. on paper, the high level of debt will scare you off. unless you care to deep dive and understand their rationale of using these bonds.

i think the main risks investors need to care of is execution risk and counterparty risk. we can't anticipate future risks with much certainty, the only certainty investor can relied on is their track record and reputation over the years. and provided your risk appetite is up for it.

9 consecutive quarters of losses. gruesome

We raise FLB’s FV to RM 2.26 (from RM1.98), ascribing a 8.6x P/E (5Y average) on FY23 EPS of 26.6 sen as we roll over our valuation base year to FY23. We like FLB given its favourable product mix with primary exposure to the US RV market (c.50% of US sales) that commands a higher ASP. The strong USD will also benefit FLB as >95% of its sales are denominated in USD while >80% of the cost is in ringgit.

Currently, FLB has pending orders (until 3Q) with locked in plywood prices hovering near record high. Going into 2QFY22, we believe FLB will likely post stronger QoQ earnings on the back of (i) sustaining or slightly stronger GP margin; (ii) delayed revenue recognition from 1QFY22, and (iii) higher plywood realized price amid rising geopolitical tension.

https://klse.i3investor.com/web/blog/detail/savemalaysia/2022-06-14-story-h1624373361-Sales_tax_holiday_for_automotive_sector_to_be_extended

Nice Orient

https://paultan.org/2022/05/25/2022-kia-ev6-gt-line-in-malaysia-preview/

either they distribute the excess cash or make it work harder. the only way to close the gap between share price and book value is to increase its return on capital

At least management is doing something via monetizing assets/unlocking value. this hotel sale is just a start.

2015 was their record year. PAT 31.7mil. EPS 30sen and DPS 15sen (about 50% payout)

If they can maintain and do a bit better, hopefully can achieve 30sen earnings per share again matching their previous high

Q1 FCF is 26mil or 26sen per share. 3 sen divvy is a tiny piece. Cash balances a whopping 106mil vs MC of 151mil. Very hard for this company to go bankrupt

Based on the North America lumber market outlook report, housing starts, which is a primary driver of lumber demand and selling price is expected to continue growing in year 2022. Thus, we expect that market price for wood products is sustainable in current year based on the US consumption of lumber as well as continued supply-side constraints due to its logistic issue and also Russia-Ukraine conflict.
However, costs of raw material and other components are increasing in current year due to increased oil price.
Besides, revision of minimum wage effective from 1 May 2022 would increase our production costs by approximately 4%. The impact of the increasing production cost can be minimised if we are able to increase our production volume through the employment of more workers. However, the current selling price of plywood,
without taking into consideration of the recent strengthening of US dollar, is able to absorb the increase of the production costs. Based on the current operating environment, the Board of Directors is confident that the Group will achieve a new height in year 2022.

Moreover, due to rising investments in oil & gas extraction and production across deep-sea locations, the demand for FPSO across offshore reserves is expected to increase significantly. Due to the rapid growth of the world's population, the rising energy requirements will increase technological demand over the forecast period and eventually drive the FPSO market. Furthermore, according to OPEC, China is the region's largest oil producer, producing 5 million barrels of oil per day. So, the increasing oil production in the region is further driving the FPSO market. In addition, the technological advancements in floating production storage and offloading over other production systems, such as digitalization of FPSO and penetration of IoT and
automation in the oil & gas industry, increased focus of FPSO market players on R&D activities, and the development of new products would create trends for the FPSO market growth in the coming years.

The COVID-19 outbreak across the globe has substantially impacted oil and gas industry, especially in Europe. The rapid industrialization and urbanization in the MEA region is projected to contribute to the FPSO market growth. Oil & gas production is one of the prominent businesses in the region. Libya, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Qatar are a few countries that have seen growth in the oil business. Despite the slowdown in economic growth and substantial macroeconomic imbalances from lower oil prices in the last few years, oil & gas producing countries in the MEA are boosting their oil & gas production by partnering with foreign firms to expand the huge onshore and offshore oil & gas fields, which is creating the demand for FPSO units. Moreover, due to the rising oil & gas extraction and production investment, the demand for FPSO across offshore reserves is expected to increase significantly.

Global FPSO market was valued at $11.91 billion in 2021 and is expected to reach $21.83 billion by 2028; it is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 8.0% from 2021 to 2028.

The FPSO market growth is driven by the increasing oil and gas production in deep-water and ultra-deep-water drives the demand for the integration of FPSOs into the ships used to explore oil and gas, the advancements in subsea technology would increase the adoption of advanced oil & gas extraction and production processes.

The FPSO market is stimulated by an expansion in offshore operations in deepwaters and ultra-deep seas due to increased investments in this area. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brazil, the US, Angola, and Norway produce the bulk of oil & gas from deepwater and ultra-deepwater. Since the last decade, the share of crude oil output from deepwater or ultra-deepwater developments has grown in these countries. Moreover, according to the US Energy Information Association, in 2020, the US exported ~8.51 MMb/d and imported ~7.86 MMb/d of petroleum, making the US a yearly petroleum exporter since 1949. Also, in 2020, the US produced ~18.40 million barrels of petroleum per day (MMb/d) and consumed ~18.12 MMb/d. The growing oil imports and exports are propelling the demand for comprehensive FPSO units in North America. Growing industrialization and surging population propel the demand for oil in Europe. . As crude oil requires less refining and is less hazardous to the environment the adoption of crude oil is increasing rapidly. Moreover, owing to their availability and low cost, crude oil and petroleum
are widely used in essential sectors such as transportation, medicine, agriculture, textiles, plastics, hygiene products, heating, road asphalt, and metallurgy. As a result of the increasing use of oil in the region, the FPSO market continues to grow.

Not forgetting, their annual bean griding capacity exceeding 300,000MT

The game changer comes when their processing facility at Ivory Coast commence operation in end 2Q or early 3Q. They would become more vertically integrated, able to drive better cost efficiencies and minimise supply chain risk as they able to source the beans from the origins and have better control of the supply chain. And via SCHOKINAG and establishment of subisi in UK, they would be able to supply directly to UK and Europe.

Oriental is like a business with free optionality

You are getting paid to wait. or rather i am getting paid 6% on my 5.30 cost every year waiting for the market to adjust

Look at it this way, their cash itself is always 50-60% of their market cap. This company generates healthy earnings and free cash flow every year. so in no way it is a value trap. as investors, we are getting rewarded every year

The free optionality comes from increased in asset values which the market has for some reasons not pricing it in.

Good riddance. Share price moved after someone dumped his shares.

Very happy to have bought Dialog at 2.48

Highest revenue ever, indicative of elevated ASP. Expect PCHEM to record highest quarterly earnings ever and handsome dividends

1. Demand for RV is robust
2. Lumber prices remain elevated at above $1k/board
3. USDMYR at high of 4.36

Results for the RV Industry Association’s March 2022 survey of manufacturers determined that total RV shipments ended the month with 64,454 units, an increase of 18.7% compared to the 54,291 units shipped during March 2021. Through March, RV shipments are up 15.5% against the same point last year with 171,466 wholesale shipments.

Both the month of March and the first quarter of 2022 set new highs for shipments in any single month and quarter, respectively.

All i care about is that i will make millions from palm oil

Just hold la. I expect this coming dividend at least 1.30 per share

Inflation at 8.5%

Investors are better off holding productive assets such as plantation land

TSH managed to sell undeveloped land at such a premium price. These plantation land is very very valuable given the scarcity and reforestation

But having said that, im confident UP will record a better profit this year compared to last year. A repeat of windfall dividend of RM1.15 is highly probable.

UP is counter cyclical. Up swing in commodity prices is not good for them. They are built to survive and thrive even in the down cycle.

It's been a while 3i. I don't have FV for PBB but happy to hold for the next 5-10 years.

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/cpo-stocks-output-continued-decline-february-2022-%E2%80%94-mpob

Production output drop again. If only the country manage to solve the labour issue much earlier, the golden opportunity to reap more bonanza for all plantation owners.

Picked up some at discount sales 1.29

I don't have Hap Seng Plant but owned Hap Seng Consolidated instead.

UP will thrive both good and bad times. when CPO normalises which is a question of when rather than not if, guess which plantation co will make the most profit? look at their yields and cost of production