Fabien _the efficient capital allocator

fabienwks | Joined since 2010-12-10

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Stock

2024-03-16 18:46 | Report Abuse

As the world shifting towards generative AI....the demand for electricity will be explosive. Data centres will easily eat 5000MW of electricity consumption. No power. No AI.

Also, massive upgrade of transmission grid is needed to cater for green energy. Tenaga earns fees for usage of their transmission grid.

Best proxy to our country's energy transition agenda.

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2024-03-16 18:33 | Report Abuse

Just spotted inconsistencies within IEA's oil demand projections. Their Q1 oil demand was projected to increase to 1.7M bpd. While their 2024 oil demand was forecasted to rise by 1.3M bpd. These implied a fall in demand for the rest of the year. Seems unlikely given global economy remain resilient. US GDP estimated to grow by 2.3% in Q1.

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2024-03-16 11:31 | Report Abuse

MYEG now owned 16.08% stake in HeiTech Padu

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2024-03-15 09:37 | Report Abuse

Oil price stays above $85. good for upstream earnings. The IEA had just upgraded their view on oil outlook for 2024. Raising world oil demand to 1.3 million bpd in 2024 against supply deficit.

Dialog's terminals business remain resilient admist the Red Sea crisis. tank utilisation sustained at 90%-95% and monthly spot storage rates holding above the SG$6 per cubic meter (cbm) levels.

EPCC losses have narrowed significantly in the past two quarters, and management guided that all legacy EPCC contracts during COVID will be completed by Jun 2024F. After that, Dialog expects the EPCC division to either break even or be slightly profitable.

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2024-03-14 20:01 | Report Abuse

Sell Xpeng EVs much better than Peugeot.

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2024-03-13 11:03 | Report Abuse

No one interested in Superln? Coming result would be good.

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2024-03-12 17:19 | Report Abuse

Head i win, tail i don't lose much.

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2024-03-08 19:07 | Report Abuse

ROE increased to 5.7% in FY2023, from 4.2% in FY2022 and 2% in FY2021. With expected improvement in coming FY, ROE conservatively can achieve 6%. P/BV of 0.6x of historical BV of RM2.30 = RM1.38

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2024-03-04 12:51 | Report Abuse

Selling is harder than buying. As a guide, there are various metrics that you can use. Lets use PEG ratio. At current price 23.90, PE ratio = 23.90/1.71 =13.98x. 2023 EPS grew by 17.93%.

P/E-to-Growth (PEG) Ratio = 13.98/17.93 = 0.78. Its PEG remain below 1.0

To reach PEG of 1, the implied PE is 17.93x. Based on latest EPS of 1.71, share price = 1.71 x 17.93 = RM30.66

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2024-03-01 20:10 | Report Abuse

By next week, UP will reach the new milestone of reaching RM10 billion market cap category.

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2024-03-01 15:30 | Report Abuse

PE at 15x. Share price RM25

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2024-03-01 14:56 | Report Abuse

Congrats all shareholders. CPO is within hair breath from 4k now.

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2024-02-29 18:36 | Report Abuse

QL results SUPERB. Highest quarterly profit again!

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2024-02-28 15:50 | Report Abuse

Warren Buffett in its latest annual letter wrote about the lesson from Coke and American Express. "When you find a truly wonderful business, stick with it. Patience pays, and one wonderful business can offset the many mediocre decisions that are inevitable."

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2024-02-27 12:26 | Report Abuse

UP not only outperformed its peers, they even outperformed themselves with FFB average yield/ha increased by 1.50% and OER increased by 2.20%. Their superior operational performance mainly due to their prime age oil palm trees coupled with mechanisation effort as well as sterling plant breeding techniques (high-yielding seed, Clonal DxP).

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2024-02-26 21:10 | Report Abuse

They can return more cash to shareholders. They have abandoned their plan to expand Guocera tiles business. Looking at this, it's more likely they will dispose of this non core assets following recent disposals. Their annual operating cash flow amounts to at least RM500mil. This is enough to fund their entry into auto spare parts business.

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2024-02-26 20:51 | Report Abuse

At current price, the case of Shang assets (5 hotels and landbanks) are seriously undervalued even taking into account the worst scenario of full write down of its Myanmar associate.

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2024-02-26 20:43 | Report Abuse

Aberdeen ceased as substantial shareholders. That's good news.

Fundamentally, the worse is over. Their associate in Myanmar book value is about 200mil after years of impairment. Their land in Penang are all valued at decades old valuation. For example, the undeveloped land at Rasa Ria carried at only 21 sen psf. If revalued at 100psf, there are huge revaluation surplus. With the ongoing property boom in Penang, those undeveloped land is a gold mine, including 8 acre plot in prime area of Batu Ferringhi (book value recorded at RM27 psf).

Shang's fame lies it its strong brand luxury hotels and management. Shang KL (662 room, 5 star hotel) with book value per room of only RM288K. This is absurdly low figure compared to other luxury hotels which sold at RM1million per room.

The Penang hotels even more cheap. Rasa Sayang book value per room is RM315k, Golden Sands at only RM123k. Just take the book rate per night as benchmark and work out the market valuation for these hotels.

Shang is deeply undervalued, prime candidate for privatization. Trading at massive discount to its RNAV.

Their occupancy rates have been improving gradually ranging from 61% to 82%. With Q4 holiday season, expect the hotels to do very well. You can check google review to get a sense of their hotel bookings.

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2024-02-26 14:53 | Report Abuse

But this quarter was a real blow out.

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2024-02-26 14:52 | Report Abuse

I remember few years back, Lay Hong was traded at RM1

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2024-02-26 14:01 | Report Abuse

Touch macro conditions reflected in the results. A very bad quarter result, even worse than Q2 2020 when the whole global economy entered into lockdown.

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2024-02-25 11:55 | Report Abuse

Their 9 months free cash flow amounted to 14 sen per share. They have paid 3 sen dividend thus far. Hope for a more juicy dividend in Q4

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2024-02-25 11:53 | Report Abuse

They did 9 billion revenue last financial year. 2023 should end up mid of 9 bil and anticipate to break 10 billion in 2024. Their margins have been improving recently. Last quarter they earned about 7% profit margin. Very likely, we will see Q4 earnings being the highest on record.

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2024-02-24 20:51 | Report Abuse

EPS at least 8 sen. 15x PE - RM1.20, 20x PE - RM1.60

News & Blogs

2024-02-24 20:36 | Report Abuse

How to explain TSH results dropping by 44%? Next week UP results will surprise you.

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2024-02-21 19:53 | Report Abuse

Wait for management to sell their non-core assets of Guocera tiles business and more bumper dividends for us.

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2024-02-21 19:49 | Report Abuse

Special dividend 50 sen 😋

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2024-02-20 20:08 | Report Abuse

The Group is focusing its attention and resources in preparing for this opportunity and is committed to complete all necessary deliverables to ensure its readiness to participate in the exercise. Participation in the upcoming LSS bidding aligns with Uzma Group's strategic objectives and government's Energy Transition towards 2050 Net-zero target.

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2024-02-20 19:50 | Report Abuse

SKP main client is Dyson which accounts 75-80% of revenue. Individiually, the rest are immaterial.

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2024-02-20 19:48 | Report Abuse

Best quarterly profit in last 5 years.

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2024-02-20 17:06 | Report Abuse

Luckily managed to bought first batch at 1.98, averaged again at 1.82 and last batch at 1.76. Take balls to keep buying the dip.

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2024-02-20 10:13 | Report Abuse

TP1.30-1.50

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2024-02-19 20:58 | Report Abuse

Are their MC correlates? why need to benchmark against them? JTiasa is being valued at 7x trailing PE. forward PE is about 5

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2024-02-19 12:39 | Report Abuse

@xiaoeh engine baru start, buying momentum is strong. we are entering seasonally weaker production, CPO price 3.9k-4k is conducive enough for planters to make handsome profit

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2024-02-19 12:36 | Report Abuse

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

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2024-02-19 12:34 | Report Abuse

RM25 first target

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2024-02-16 22:51 | Report Abuse

Don't forget they have huge forest plantation of 30,978 ha. Based on RM4K/ha, its equity value worth RM124million.

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2024-02-16 22:50 | Report Abuse

Cheapest plantation play remains JTIASA, by a far margin. 5-6x PE. Q4 FFB production increased 30% y-o-y.

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2024-02-15 18:47 | Report Abuse

Risk management on stock price? What is Berkshire class A shares trading now??
Go and find out why Warren Buffett never allows a share split on its stock.

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2024-02-15 16:16 | Report Abuse

Best in class plantation company, very well managed and profitable. trading at less than 12x PE. and some people shout overvalued. what are you doing here, anyway?

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2024-02-15 16:15 | Report Abuse

3 billion market cap company. of which 1.6 billion net cash. generates 280-300 million annual profit. very profitable company at cheap valuation. HOLD.

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2024-02-15 14:44 | Report Abuse

The secret to make money is to buy right and hold tight.

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2024-02-15 14:43 | Report Abuse

Congratulations to all shareholders. Been a long time holder of UP. Just do nothing and wait for harvest.

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2024-02-14 09:37 | Report Abuse

The Body Shop collapses into administration with thousands of jobs at risk

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/body-shop-collapses-administration-132934275.html

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2024-02-13 19:51 | Report Abuse

Never understand why someone want to rationalise their decision to sell in public forum. if want to sell, then sell. no one interested to know, keep your thought process to yourself. happy with 4% p.a. then sell.

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2024-02-06 11:31 | Report Abuse

Singapore Changi Airport’s passenger volumes are expected to reach pre-pandemic levels in 2024, the country’s transport ministry said in a written response to parliamentary questions.

Monthly passenger traffic recovered to around 90% of pre-Covid levels in December. For the full year of 2023, the airport handled 58.9 million passenger movements, or 86% of traffic recorded in 2019, the ministry said.

Singapore tourism on recovery path, bodes well for GENS

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2024-02-03 19:44 | Report Abuse

PE 100x crazy. wont touch this stock with a ten feet pole. Greatec is better buy

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2024-01-30 20:57 | Report Abuse

Uzma Bhd's subsidiary Malaysian Energy Chemical & Services Sdn Bhd has accepted a contract from Hibiscus Oil and Gas Malaysia Ltd for the supply of chemicals and related services for PM3.

In a filing with Bursa Malaysia, Uzma said the contract will be for a period of five years, effective Nov 16, 2023, to Nov 15, 2028.

Its value will be based on work orders issued by Hibiscus Oil& Gas during the contract period.

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2024-01-30 20:53 | Report Abuse

Yinson Renewables acquires 97MWp Matarani solar project in Peru

Yinson Holdings Bhd’s renewables business unit, Yinson Renewables has completed the acquisition of the 97 MWp Matarani Solar Project in Peru from Grenergy Renewables.

The project is located in the Mollendo desert in the Arequipa region, one of the world’s highest solar irradiation areas, Yinson Renewables said in a statement.

Most of the project’s energy has been contracted through a power purchase agreement (PPA) with a bankable off-taker for the next 15 years,

Yinson Renewables said Project Matarani is currently under construction and is expected to enter commercial operation by third quarter of 2024.

In addition to the SPV acquisition for about US$25mil, Grenergy is providing a full turnkey engineering, procurement, and construction contract for the construction of the project and is entitled to further earnouts (collectively valued at about US$65mil).

Grenergy will also provide the operation and maintenance service for the plant for the first two years.

Once in operation, Project Matarani will inject about 260 GWh of renewable energy into the Peruvian grid annually, enough to satisfy the energy needs of about 62,000 Peruvian households and prevent the emission of more than 56,000 tonnes of CO2 per year.