Dialog "shareholder value destruction"?

Over the last 3 years, dialog share price has seen continued sell down relentlessly. even to the extent, of getting itself being kicked out from FBMKLCI. if one take a cursory look, you will be left wondering what happen? is there any significant deterioration in its fundamentals? lets try to find the answer in the numbers

FY2018 - 2023
Revenue
3,111
2,386
2,303
1,610
2,319
3,002

Net Profit
528
552
648
543
506
521

NP margin
17.0%
23.1%
28.1%
33.7%
21.8%
17.4%

ROE
15.40%
14.70%
15.90%
12.50%
10.50%
9.60%

With valid reasons, the selldown is not entirely unreasonable as the company's profit margin and ROE has seen erosion over the last 3 years.

Dialog used to enjoy premium valuation, driven by its high growth prospect and strong ROE of 14-15%. the question now is, can Dialog improve its ROE in the near future?

ROE 11%
Book value 1.51
Assuming P/BV 1x, TP at least 1.51

Dato Mohamad Nasir bought 10k stocks at 19.70

He is Director of RHB, MRCB, Yinson, UTDPLT and Plus Malaysia. Impressive.

PE only 6x. hold on

wow UZMA is damn strongggg

MR LOH HANG PAI @ LOW HENG FONG (a company director) acquired 135,800 shares on 19-Jan-2024.

19 Jan share price ranges 19.26 to 19.60

welcome @hng33

you are here means we can further ride the upside. what's your trading plan?

EPF keep buying GENP

The past is past. New management is much improved. Their average age of palm tree is 14 years. Bullish CPO bodes well for them.

CPO above 3.9k. bullish

Stay chill and eat dark chocolate. Dark chocolate is rich in minerals, such as iron, magnesium, and zinc. it can have various health benefits, including reducing inflammation and decreasing the risk of heart disease.

Despite market weakness this week, GENP is holding up well.

Even broke RM20, its still about 12x PE for the most profitable and best in class Plantation company.

Their sizeable landbank is valued at more than RM5billion.

Deep assets value stocks are in play. KSENG, INSAS. Don't miss out on OSK and ORIENT

2018: EPS 20.5 sen (SPr: 9.06 to 10.72)
2019: EPS 16.6 sen (SPr: 9.36 to 10.80)
2020: EPS 28.4 sen (SPr: 8.50 to 10.80)
2021: EPS 48.2 sen (SPr: 6.46 to 9.93)
2022: EPS 52.5 sen (SPr: 5.55 to 9.58)

Pre-covid, GENP trades at RM9 to RM10+
Last 2 years, GENP record profit, however valuation multiple was much lower due to high interest rate environment. As rates are anticipated to moderate lower, expect PE multiple re-rating.

I predict JTIASA can achieve at least 6 sen EPS in coming quarter and declare 2 sen DPS.

Thanks Phillip Capital!

Phillip Capital has initiated coverage on integrated energy and technology company Uzma Bhd with a “buy” rating and 12-month target price at RM1.30 pegged to 10x PE (price-to-earnings) multiple on 2025E earnings per share

Hong Leong Investment Bank Research (HLIB) has maintained its "buy" rating on OSK Holdings Bhd, with a higher target price of RM2.04 (from RM1.77) based on a 30% discount to a revised sum of part-derived valuation of RM2.91.

Cheers!!!

the crown of the jewel is in GENP. they are sitting on a huge tracts of undeveloped lands....17k hectares of freehold land waiting to be monetized. huge monetary value of landbanks and low share capital base.

@enigmatic [bamboo investing style] not entirely true, if you have patient capital. getting pay decent yields while waiting, eventually (due to some fortunate circumstances) value may be unlock/

Recent examples, Keck Seng and OSK

Their combined stakes in Genting SG (52.7%), Genting MY (49.5%) and Genting Plantation(55.4%) already worth more than RM10 per share. Assuming other assets assigned zero value. Adjusted for debt, their SOP is still around RM7.

@SinGor i share your sentiment too. this undervalued conglomerate has been shunned and unloved for far too long. its time to shine. HL initiated coverage last year. The Edge had included OSK as their top 2024 pick.

The Silver Valley Technology Park (SVTP) development in Kanthan is expected to bring in RM14bil foreign direct investment (FDI), says Datuk Seri Saarani Mohamad.

The Perak Mentri Besar said this RM1.03bil project would also create 13,000 new job opportunities for the people of Perak.

Saarani said he was optimistic that the development of SVTP would provide an alternative for Perak-born graduates to return back here to contribute to the state through the job opportunities provided.

“SVTP, which is located in a strategic location between the Kanthan Industrial Park and Meru Raya Town, already has a supporting ecosystem including existing basic facilities which provides an added value in attracting investors.

“To ensure that the SVTP is capable of being a catalyst for the state's industrial development and becoming the country's new industrial hub, aspects of quality and safety will not be compromised,” he said.

Saarani told reporters this on Monday (Jan 8) after witnessing the Joint Venture Agreement ceremony between Perak State Development Corporation, its subsidiary Perak Corp and Advancecon Holdings Berhad on the establishment of the park.

GENS $1 - MC $12billion. GENT owns 52.6% stake.

Genting's holding of Genting Singapore is already RM5.54 per share.

Tenaga is best proxy for electrification. The grid of the future will mean more electricity to generate, distribute, and manage. Production and consumption of electricity will see higher demand from power hungry data centres, proliferation of EVs, shift to renewable sources and also AI computers.

The capital spending to upgrade the grid means more sales and earnings growth for TNB as regulator will allow utilities to earn a return on their outlays.

Also, construction boom will boost their IBS segment.

Embedded within this conglomerate's industries segment is Cables business. Cables are in high demand now...with shortage in supply, unable to cope with rising demand from RE transitions....Tenaga (grid enhancement/investments), data centres and solar projects. Look at SCABLE, attracting massive interests lately.

JOHOR’S state government has proposed that its business hub Iskandar Malaysia be designated as the special economic zone being planned between Singapore and Malaysia.

Iskandar, which was conceptualised as an economic growth corridor in 2006, spans 2,217 sq km across southern Johor, an area three times the size of Singapore. It includes Johor’s heavy industrial zone Pasir Gudang, its capital city Johor Bahru, Iskandar Puteri, Kulai, Sedenak and part of Pontian town.

Hold tight. Insiders are buying

Global semiconductor capacity is expected to increase 6.4 per cent in 2024 to top the 30 million wafers per month (wpm) mark for the first time after rising 5.5 per cent to 29.6 wpm in 2023, SEMI announced in its latest quarterly World Fab Forecast report.

Johor theme in play. GENP is a laggard. They have more than 10,000 hectare of freehold land in Johor (Batu Pahat, Kulai, Air Itam, Simpang Renggam).

2024 is Yinson's inflection point in turning around their CF. stay invested.

Im interested to try for the first time.

GENTING - 20%
YINSON - 20%
MFCB - 20%
SHANG - 10%
GCB - 10%
GENP - 10%
SKPRES - 10%

Jaya tiasa's 69,589 hectares of prime trees are worth much more. Current valuation is too cheap.

Up_down

Rsawit sold most of their unplanted lands and old trees. Young and prime mature lands represents merely 2,609 hectares out of 9,935 hectares.

Rimbunan Sawit Bhd (RSB) is disposing of five parcels of agricultural land collectively measuring 9.935 hectares in Miri, Sarawak, to Mahawangsa Sungai Bok Plantation Sdn Bhd totalling RM165mil.

This works out about RM16,608 per HA.

No idea when it will pecah. but if you believe in country's energy transition. then Tenaga is the best proxy play.

Fears of higher oil prices after Red Sea attacks - Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea risk pushing up the price of oil and other goods, analysts have warned.

Several firms have paused shipments through the route after vessels were attacked by Houthi rebels in Yemen.

The world's second largest shipping line, Maersk, said on Tuesday that it would reroute some of its vessels around Africa's Cape of Good Hope.

Deja vu? Yes, because similar incident happened back in 2021
Suez Canal blockage - The massive cargo ship Ever Given has completely blocked the Suez Canal, a vital trade passageway for as much as 12% of the world’s seaborne trade. A prolonged blockage could lead to “significant disruptions to global trade, skyrocketing shipping rates, further increase of energy commodities, and an uptick in global inflation,” JPMorgan warned.

Higher P/BV is fair, a testament to UP's higher efficiency gains. Be it their ability to generate higher profits per dollar of capital employed. or higher yield extracted per acre of farmland.

How can UMCCA trades at 28x PER vs. UP 10x PER. Anyone can enlighten me?

The balance of $65 billion will be invested to develop oil-producing assets. According to the Strategic Plan, $22 billion is set aside for projects in the Campos Basin with four new floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels to be put in place by the end of 2028.

One fact you need to understand about Brazil. Is that most of Brazil's production is offshore and most of its truly promising fields are not simply under the two miles of ocean, but under an additional two miles of seabed.

In a shock development, Latin American energy giant Brazil announced it will join the OPEC+ group of oil-producing countries, including some of the world’s biggest such as Russia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The consortium works in concert to coordinate and unify petroleum production to secure pricing for the benefit of its members. Brazil, which government data shows pumped 3.5 million barrels per day for October 2023, intends to join OPEC+ during January 2024. In a surprise development, the CEO of Brazil’s national oil company Petrobras announced that Latin America’s largest oil producer will not participate in the consortium's coordinated production caps. This news highlights how much of a risk Brazil’s oil boom and growing hydrocarbon production pose to OPEC+’s ability to control global petroleum prices.

In less than two decades, Brazil went from being a marginal oil producer to the world's ninth largest with the country poised to enter the global top five by the end of the decade. Brazil, which is Latin America’s leading economy, possesses the region’s second-largest oil reserves after neighboring Venezuela. According to the hydrocarbon regulator, the Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels or ANP, at the end of 2022 Brazil held proven reserves (1P) of 14.9 billion barrels and proven and possible (2P) reserves of 21.9 billion barrels. The federal government in Brasilia initiated the Potencializa E&P program to expand Brazil’s oil reserves and production. The plan aims to secure investment for the development of marginal as well as frontier oil basins to boost production to 5.4 million barrels per day by 2029, an increase of 54% over October 2023, making Brazil the world's fourth largest oil producer.

The primary contributor to such a substantial hike in petroleum production will be state-controlled Petrobras. Brazil’s national oil company, as part of its 2024 to 2028 Strategic Plan, has budgeted total capital expenditures over that period of $102 billion, which is a 31% or $24 billion increase over the previous 2023 to 2027 strategic plan. Petrobras has earmarked 72% or $73 billion of that budget for spending on exploration and production activities, leading to higher hydrocarbon reserves as well as production. Of that amount, $7.5 billion is earmarked for exploration activities between 2024 and 2028. This will fund the drilling of 50 new wells with 25 planned for Brazil’s Southeast Basins another 16 in the Equatorial Margin and the remainder to be drilled in offshore Colombia.

FPSO Atlanta was 72% complete at end-Oct 2023 and first oil is targeted for mid-CY24F
FPSO Maria Quiteria reached 82% completion at end-Oct 2023
FPSO Agogo reached 41% completion at end-Oct 2023, with first oil targeted for 1QCY26F

Revenue growth via new investments. As at 30th Sept 2023, management has allocated capex of RM606.5m, of which 62% or RM376.6m is allocated for the renewable energy segment. Of this, RM198.5m is for the new 5th turbine and the remaining RM178.1m for the 46.5MW solar farm project in Malaysia under the Corporate Green Power Programme, 11.4MW solar farm project in Maldives and 8.1MW commercial and industrial rooftop solar projects. It has also allocated RM61.1m for remaining works on two new packaging factories and RM95.8m for new production lines. RM74m is budgeted for modern farming covering 772 acres in Perak, which also include a 60MW solar project.

Positive progress on the 5th turbine concession. Management is currently in the final stage of negotiations with Laos’ Electricite Du Laos (EDL), which will see a favourable new concession for the Don Sahong Hydropower plant that includes all the 5 turbines with a combined capacity of 325MW. Announcement of the new concession is expected to be unveiled by 1QFY24. Meanwhile, Energy Availability Factor is expected to stay around 91% in 2024. Completion of the 5th turbine is in time for the wet season, which could see full capacity utilization. Assuming a conservative EAF assumption of 41%, the 5th turbine could generate annualized pre-tax net profit of RM40m for the group. The solar business is expected to contribute revenue of RM14-15m with a net profit of RM3m in FY24.

New food security division. Apart from the 2,560-ha coconut and macadamia plantation in Cambodia, the group is also investing into an established platform in Malaysia that owns 1,300-acre fruit and vegetable farms and distribution channels in Johor and Pahang. Via the platform, they plan to develop modern farming or greenhouse farming for herbs, vegetables and fruits on a 772-acre (allocated 400 acres for modern farming) plot of lowland in Perak. Given the huge capex involved and concerns on heat or high temperature of lowlands in Perak, they have started on a pilot project while in the midst of acquiring the entire landbank in Perak under the MFCB name. Eventually, there are plans to integrate the established platform with the modern farming as it plans to have a bigger stake in the entity. Including nursery, the gestation for vegetable farming is about 30-45 days. To avoid the risk of price fluctuation and middleman costs, MFCB plans to have direct off-takers like supermarkets and hypermarkets. Based on the estimated annual production of 50k mt and average wholesale price of RM6/kg, it could potentially generate revenue of RM200m-300m p.a. or RM500k/acres. The modern farming design is expected to be ready by end-March 2024.

Very likely, they can achieve 30 sen EPS for FY2024
At 10X PE below mean, RM3.00

Simply the supply demand dynamics over the long term. where do u think the trajectory is heading towards? short term, is anyone guess....economic recession, slowing demand, geopolitical risk, ....artificially suppressed prices by US (2024 election coming)....but over the long term..its a fair bet that the supply demand equation is bias towards higher oil price

there is no substitute for crude oil in terms of energy efficiency and density. the fact is, there are many use case especially in transportation where it is impossible to replace oil as fuel of choice. coupled with the fact that transitioning into renewable energy requires more oil needs than ever. you can read the book "How the World Really Works" by Vaclav Smith where u get all the data supporting this fact

The world still have plenty of oil, yet the supply has been very tightened. oil producers have been incentivised enough by markets or governments to incur new capex for explorations. bank financing has been restrictive or non-existent due to ESG concerns. a case in point, take a look at US shale production....long term secular decline. the certainty is the global supply is very very tight and this tilts the balance of risk towards higher oil price

GENP is one of the largest freehold land owner in Peninsular Malaysia (PM) with 16,908 ha, with 61% located in Johor, 18% in Malacca & Negeri Sembilan, 18% in Kedah & Perak, and 3% in Selangor (ie. Sepang). GENP continues to carry these valuable assets at their book values. As these lands were amassed progressively since 1981, and strategically located on highly populated areas of the west coast of PM.

Gaming revenue at Genting Bhd’s Resorts World Sentosa (RWS) in Singapore will grow by another 10% in 2024, buoyed by the growth of a diversified customer base outside of China, according to Fitch Ratings.

In its “Global Gaming Outlook 2024” released on Thursday, the rating agency said that while Singapore is already performing “above expectations” with gaming revenues 15% higher than pre-Covid levels this year, Fitch analysts said that they expect such growth to continue, driven by increasing foreign visitors in 2024.

The report noted that as of October 2023, visitor arrivals to Singapore were still 25% below 2019, primarily due to a slow recovery in the Chinese market.

The agency expects Malaysia — home to Genting Malaysia Bhd’s flagship Resorts World Genting — to enjoy a 9% gross gaming revenue growth next year, driven by a “steady increase in domestic traffic and foreign tourists”.