Hi nokenzo : if use your number 70,058 as base FCF, I got terminal FCF =1,315,659. PV FCF= 1,122,242.
add cash =272200 less current debt=-18500 Total PV FCF =1,375,942 less minority inetrest=-354,993 Total PV FCFE =1,020,949 FCF/share=IV = 3.78 MOS @1.96 = 48%
Hi kokenzo : I were a chemistry student, very dumb too. I spent many days in performing reverse engineering on the numbers by KC Chong to understand DCFA. I were shy to simply ask question, thus I spent lot of hours in reading at Investopedia.com and annual reports to map his numbers. Now I have little(not much and not validated) understanding on his numbers. Please feel free to ask whatever questions, let us learn together.
Thank you very much, Mr BS Ng. Shall try to sort out later after office. I live in Kedah, usually wake up early to read mail and quite computer illiterate. Worst, now trying to understand finance! Me, too, because of KC, I learned to read AR. You are much better than me, hope to learn from you too. Ecstasy, when I got certain figure right as stated by KC. This reminded me of my student time, I was really on top of the world when I can solve a maths equation. Yes, happy learning together.
Hi Mr BS Ng, Merry Christmas, while most of us are enjoying the holiday, I am still struggling with the 'equation'. Starting from CFFO, I found certain discrepancy, could you advise when you are free? 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 nokenzo CFFO 52,898 131,051 137,909 114,196 56,521 62,207 Capex -49,659 -26,434 -24,022 -18,412 -23,826 -30,433 FCF 3,239 104,617 113,887 95,784 32,695 31,774
The base FCF I used for the estimation of future FCF is the average of the FCF of last 5 years, ie 69794.
You notice last year's FCF is very usually low at about 3m only. The FCF before that are much higher. For example 2012 FCF is 105m, 2011 114m etc. Last year there was a build up of inventories and receivables which were unusual. Anyway I have checked the first quarter 2014 cash flow and most receivables have collected and inventories reduced. So it appears to be ok.
So I think the average 5-year FCF used as the base is conservative enough.
ask him to make future FCF which must be the average of the FCF of last 5 years for pmcorps...u'll be surprised....ripley's believe or not..he will make u believe...lol
Go go go! Go to the company recommended by anbz, the beautiful one of it's kind Nova MSC, that superstar that should reach RM1.20 from RM0.06 before the UMNO general assembly in 2013 ( November 2013???) Or did you mean 2023? 2033? 2043? 2053?
But did KC Chong inform his kakis that he had sold out PMCorp and Fibon after these shares have risen??? Did he??????? But did you tell people that all your Nove story was bullshit, and that people should not take your recommendation seriously??? Did you???
And KC got his influence not by spamming , like what you did! He got his following because people know he is genuine, he knows his stuff, he is GOOD! Not like you, anbz! Not you!
Posted by anbz > Dec 26, 2013 01:22 AM | Report Abuse don't buy kfima...it's too expensive...look...another stock recommended by kcchong...is pmcorp...only 21.5 cents...ask him why he recommends lousy counters such as pmcorp..hahaha
I NEVER RECOMMEND ANYBODY TO BUY KFIMA, HAVE I? IF I CAN REMEMBER, I TALKED ABOUT THE BUSINESS OF KFIMA, HOW IS ITS OPERATING PERFORMANCE,CASH FLOWS AND BALANCE SHEET. I ALSO TRIED VALUING KFIMA, AND COMPARED WITH ITS PRICE. THOSE WERE WHAT I HAVE DONE. DID I SAY ANBZ, YOU MUST BUY KFIMA, GUARANTEE YOU MAKE MONEY ONE?
I DIDN'T ASK PEOPLE TO BUY BECAUSE I KNOW SOMETHING YOU DON'T KNOW, IE I CAN BE WRONG IN MY ANALYSIS, MARKET MAY NOT AGREE WITH MY ANALYSIS, THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN ETC.
NOW YOU SPECIFICALLY RECOMMEND PEOPLE NOT TO BUY KFIMA. CAN SHARE WITH US WHY DO YOU THINK SO? WHY EXPENSIVE? WHAT METRICS DO YOU USE? HEY YOU ARE A MATHS GRADUATE, AREN'T YOU? WE ALL MATHEMATICS INCLINED PEOPLE LIKE TO USE NUMBERS, DON'T YOU?
DID I RECOMMEND PEOPLE TO BUY PMCORP? I REMEMBER I JUST DID A GRAHAM NET-NET VALUATION OF PMCORP AND MENTIONED THAT ITS CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENT IS CLOSE TO ITS SHARE PRICE. THAT WAS ALL I DID. I ALSO MENTIONED THAT ITS CHOCOLATE BUSINESS IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF IT IS GOING TO BE IMPRESSIVE IN THE FUTURE, ALL BASED ON WHAT I SAW IN THE FINANCIAL STATEMENTS. WHERE DID I RECOMMEND YOU TO BUY PMCORP?
PMCORP IS A LOUSY COUNTER? DID I ACTUALLY TALKED ABOUT "COUNTER"? MOST OF THE TIME I TALKED ABOUT BUSINESS. THERE IS A BUSINESS BEHIND ALL STOCKS.
Posted by anbz > Dec 26, 2013 01:28 AM | Report Abuse
ask him to make future FCF which must be the average of the FCF of last 5 years for pmcorps...u'll be surprised....ripley's believe or not..he will make u believe...lol
DID I PROJECT THE FUTURE FREE CASH FLOWS OF PMCORP WHEN I DID THE GRAHAM NET-NET VALUATION? DO YOU KNOW WHEN SHOULD WE USE ASSET-BASED AND EARNINGS-BASED VALUATION MODEL TO GET THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF A COMPANY? BY THE WAY, DO YOU KNOW WHAT INTRINSIC VALUE IS? WHAT IS MARGIN OF SAFETY ETC? I GUESS NOT. ALL YOUR POSTS ARE ABOUT SHARE PRICES, WHICH DAY WHAT PRICE, GORENG THIS, GORENG THAT.
YOUNG MAN, IF YOU CONTINUE DOING THIS, YOU GOT NO FUTURE IN YOUR INVESTING EXPERIENCE. TRUST ME.
This chap should be ignored. His slanderous remark is to belittle both of you, Mr KC and BS. Both of you still command high respect from all your followers, including me. No amount of slandering can affect my admiration for both of you. Please ignore him. Both of you have done a great job. Salute you.
Hi Mr BS Ng and KC Chong, thank you very much. I have finally gotten the answer of FCF per share. Pardon the brain of biology student, can only record and cannot reason. I was banging on historical FCF and not the FV FCF.
I am just few months ahead you in chatting and learning from KC Chong and many others in I3. One of the surest things is that I am few notches behind him. So please do not making me uneasy by putting my name side by side with his except if you are talking about our good intention on this forum.
Another one which you can try on DCFA is Prestariang by KC too. Prestariang is a good counter. I want to buy it at a lower price as so how, I have unconsciously over invested lately. I am now queuing to let go some counters.
Hi Mr KC, how do you get 33m reduction in receivables in Q1 2014 comparing to 2013 receivables? Do you also include other receivables also as in the AR and quarterly report?
Posted by nokenzo > Dec 27, 2013 06:32 AM | Report Abuse
Hi Mr KC, how do you get 33m reduction in receivables in Q1 2014 comparing to 2013 receivables? Do you also include other receivables also as in the AR and quarterly report?
That 33m is shown in the statement of "cash flow from operating activities" in the first quarter 2014 results. It includes all receivables.
Hi Nokenzo: pls do not miss thread "Shall we avoid risks? - kcchongnz". It has good discussion on CFO. I saved the thread but have not gone into it yet as on vacation.
kcchongnz has left a new comment on your portfolio "Stock Pick Challenge 2013 2H - kcchongnz":
So what is wrong with the pick on Kumpulan Fima which lost 2.4% since a year ago? Well there were two or three people in i3 who constantly picked on me for choosing this stock. However they were not able to articulate on why my Kfima pick was such a bad move, except talking nonsense, all of them.
Looking back on the selection process again, I do not see what is wrong. It was selected based on its diversified durable business in security paper printing, palm oil, bulking, food etc. It had high ROIC of 25%, a healthy balance sheet with 255m net cash, or about RM1 per share, excellent quality of earnings with consistent and abundant cash flows from operations and free cash flow. Free cash flow is more than 20% of revenue and invested capital. And most of all, at RM2.06 at that time, the earnings yield (EV/Ebit) was 27%, a great number.
Sure its earnings has dropped by about 10% the last financial year, though its revenue still went up a little. Again which company with plantation as a major earnings didn’t have their earnings reduced last year when palm oil price is depressed? Many even made losses.
Based on Kfima’s last annual financial results, ROIC has dropped to 19%, but this is still a high return of capital. And at RM1.93 now, its earning yields (EV/Ebit) of 26% is still hell of a good bargain. This is a classic case of the Magic Formula Investing Strategy of Joel Greenblatt.
Buying something for less than its value is the most dependable way to make money. Buying discount from IV and having asset price move towards its value doesn’t require serendipity; it just requires that market participants wake up to reality.
Trying to buy below value isn’t infallible, but it’s the best chance we have.
The fact that despite its great fundamentals haven’t changed but its price has gone down a little while the overall market has gone up by 14%, it is even more compelling to keep Kumpulan Fima as a major stock in my portfolio in 2014.
I also pick KFIMA for 2014 , we all know that KFIMA is undervalued like many undervalued stocks of which many have been adjusted during 2013 with KFIMA stands out not having any improvement, logically it should make the move.
I am in queue buying more KFima, unfortunately there was nobody willing to sell it to me. I will patiently wait for it. I just need few cents lower than the current close. Just want to save few hundred for dinner lah.
bsngpg, I jump in on Friday... this is still the highest MOS stock in my portfolio... if didn't get at cheapest nvm la... next Mon might pump in more.. I smell an uptrend coming soon....
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
nokenzo
591 posts
Posted by nokenzo > 2013-12-24 02:24 | Report Abuse
Hi Mr BSNg, just got the formula of Terminal FCF, $=CFn(1+g)/(R-g).