but this probably not how it play, the sequence is suppose to be like this....
Koon Yew Yin and co accumulate the stocks ---> Koon Yew Yin promote the stock like mad ---> Koon Yew Yin and co push up the price ---> small fishes seeing the price keep going up and regret not buying ---> small fishes start to believe Koon Yew Yin story and start buying at ' high price ' ---> Koon Yew Yin and co sell their stocks and realized big profit ---> small fishes suffer loss and left hanging...
rsawit is a good example..
i dont know why Koon Yew Yin keep revealing his dirty secret... and in the meantime... he still think ppl will keep going to believe him?
thats why i said... if you in a game, and you want to bluff the opponent.. the 1st thing you do is ...you dont reveal your cards... kikiki..
MR KOON thank you very very much , i saw your comments & posting on dec 31 ... however i bought a day earlier on 30th at 2.10 to 2.04 & when i saw you parking a whole lot at 2.04 on 31st .. i grabbed at 2.05 & above (what else can i do sir ... how to beat you at 2.04 on 31st) ....
i am smiling today ... thank you sir !!! Hope i have the privilege & opportunity to meet you in person in the nearest future ....
I am buying some JT now for long term hold at 2.38, a most auspicious figure. Within 3 years, I will know whether JT will morph into a killer stock returning 20% plus p.a. over the period. Speculation will be put to rest if you put money where your mouth is, and hold it there for 3 years. No blame on Mr Koon or anyone else if it does'nt pan out. Kudos to him if it does for the unwarranted brickbats that he is taking.
i also no blame him for anythings what.. i just want to stated out that in stock market, you dont reveal your cards.. actually it is a kind warning to mr koon, if you reveal too much information, you will get prone to be attacked, thats it... kikiki
many follow his view,and loss money,i had bad experience too in tdm,r sawit and jtiasa, but i dont blame anyone,because we buy on our own risk,happy investing
If you look at FR with it's equally young palm distribution (>60% young trees below age 7), why is it able to achieve 19-20 ton FFb/ha yield and a very impressive 22%-23% OER?
Why? you need to look at the soil, palm grows best in riverine alluvial soil, which is predominant in sumatera, south and east kalimantan and also in sabah and western peninsular.
Others areas with poor soil like east peninsular and sarawak, the yield and OER is evident in the data. Even with growth plantations in poorer soil cannot hope to match the efficiency of plantation in favorable soils, no matter what they do. JT is planted on mostly peat soil, which is detrimental to the overall FFB yield and OER, even matured plantation like SOP and SP still is not able to get good FFB yield and OER. JT's FFB yield and OER is extremely poor, and is a hallmark of a peat soil plantation similar to SOP and SP. FFb yield of 25 t/ha is not feasible on these soils.
FFB yield and OER is EXTREMELY important to plantations, as it is the ultimate reasons for its high or low production cost. FR have an impressive 50% gross margin and a 20% net margin on it's plantations even at the current depressed selling price. Also FR is able to command higher price for it's CPO due to it's integrated plantation concentrated in RIAU which can guarantee very low FFA% CPO, which commands a price premium.
Now compared it to JT's gross and net margin, can you see how much is the difference, and why?
Lol. For those complaint that P/E are extraordinarily high. Come on this is cyclical counter! CPO prices at multi-year low last 2 years and the trees had yet to mature. Definitely the profit will not be there! When the trees reach their prime profit will normalize. However as what I said previously i am not fancy on this counter coz I have no confident on their cost control, sarawak peat soil yield and their hefty debts. Bear in mind they need another 200 million ++ to construct new mills but their warchest is unable to cope with it. I strongly believe a cash call is around the corner!
FR is one of the best plantation counters in the world. Everyone are talking on how much biodiesel can help in pushing CPO prices. Since FR has biodiesel plant this may help speculator to push the prices up!
P/S: I hold significant position in FR. Pls use your judgement before making any decision.
I though my colleuge better than Warren coz our profit per year almostly double RM1 became RM2 within a year.My opinon if your capital limited better dont go for long term investment better masuk & lari.
Let me shared with you the little knowledge and experience that I have gained on margin financing and the sort of return achieved by top fund manager and promises by conservative financial planner.
A portfolio that generates 20% or more CAGR on capital invested consistently year after year is only possible through margin financing. The risk-reward ratio which is a comparison of expected returns on an investment to the amount of risk undertaken to capture these return will determine the stop loss of each trade.
Assuming you intend to put in RM50 as seed capital and borrowed another RM50 with 4% interest. You invested on 100 shares of X at a price of RM 1 and intend to stop loss at RM 0.95 to ensure your losses will not exceed RM 5 which represents 10% of your seed capital. If after closing your position, you expect a return of 12% which represent an amount of RM 12. Then your risk-reward ratio is 5/12, the higher the ratio the more risky will be the venture. You need to gauge the volatility of the stock to gauge the stop loss (max loss allowed by financier without risking default on margin call), some trial and error is necessary to determine which ratio is best for a given trading strategy.
In the above example, the RM 12 return less RM 2 interest (RM 50x4%) will yield RM10 net profit after interest which represent 20% return on your RM 50 seed capital. The risk is loosing 10% of your capital if the share price will not go below 95 cent, any price below that may risk margin call. It will be more complicated with more open trading positions.
One of the well known fund manager, Mr.Tan Teng Poh - MD of Capital Dynamics Asset Management has achieved around 14.73% CAGR with its RM 140 million Closed-end fund since inception (19/10/05) til now in term of NAV. 11.44% CAGR in term of share price over same period (approximate 9 years). The CAGR was much better until he decided to hold more cash.
Right now its share price is RM 2.38 and its NAV as at 15 Jan 2014 is RM 3.00, a discount of 20%. If he decided to sell everything and return the monies to shareholders, you will get 20% extra for your investment.
Does that sound logical as an investment to you? Well it depends on what you want. The fund does not pay regular dividends and if you do not mind to lock in your capital for a long period of time for the 14% CAGR capital appreciation. In this case, the fund has proven track record unlike SPAC and JTIASA. The reward is good if you can afford to wait with minimum downside risk.
I am not promoting Capital Dynamics Fund nor do I hold any of its shares because as an investor I prefer a combination of regular cash dividend plus capital appreciation over time. If the overall market valuation looks lofty, I prefer to liquidate and hold more cash. In other words, I will rebalance my portfolio if the price moves too far from fundamental, meaning P/E & PBV up substantially with flat or declining earnings and dividend payout. As what is happening now, earnings and dividends payout of many companies are either flattish or declining.
One wealth management guru (a certified financial planner) told me that he can manage to give a return of 6%-9% consistently with minimum risks on client’s capital. However, if you dared to pick up undervalue stocks with strong fundamental during crisis period like the 1998 Asia meltdown and 2008 global financial crisis. My experience concurred with Mr Koon that you will have very good chance of doubling your monies in three years time.
Investing is a risk but not knowing what you are doing is a greater risk. Every investor has his or her own investing style. No matter what strategy you use, just make sure you know what you are doing.
You need to be focused, Donald Trump focused on real estate, Jim Rogers on commodities future and Warren Buffett on stocks. You need to be a voracious reader and have a solid financial foundation moulded on the streets.
Like Mr Koon said, you learned from your own experience or from a network of friends with similar interest. Never jump from one strategy to another and always looking for the next hot tip.
Always have an exit strategy before entering an investment, equity price should stay within a permission limit relative to earning growth. I would sell on strength if there is a wide divergence between price and fundamental. Must have patience to wait for your plan to materialize, fear and greed are the causes of declines and surges at market place. Like what is happening at the moment. It is only through market fluctuation that a successful investor makes his or her money. Winning or losing are just part of the game.
Crisis always present opportunities to cherry pick undervalue stocks, as long as the company has strong balance sheet, sustainable cash flow and earning growth prospect. Just remember that you can never sell at the highest nor can you buy at the lowest. Just stick to your plan. Good luck to all,cheers....
Very balanced and fair posting Alphabeta. You can have the best share tip in the world, but the grey matter between the ears can still make the worst of it. Who to blame/
I have read all the commentaries of all my articles on this forum. I must congratulate Alphabeta for writing the best comment. It shows that he is well educated and knows what he is talking about, unlike some gas bags writing some senseless rubbish.
I notice that there are fewer commentaries for this article, up till now there are only 71. I think the only reason is that those stupid guys have nothing to say because they cannot really understand this article. Moreover, they realised that they are actually exposing their stupidity.
I like readers to comment intelligently. I welcome controversies so that I can learn something new. Thank you Alphabeta.
To avoid any misunderstanding, when I said those stupid guys, I mean those who ridiculed me with vulgar language. I also get copies of commentaries that were automatically removed from the system which you all could not see.
For example opimus7 wrote quote "Fuck you" and "Koon is fucking his Indo mate and his wife is watching". Now you understand why I am so angry.
My wife says that I must be lag of punishment in trying to teach people to become rich. Even our children cannot emulate you and your success.
I bought JTiasa some time ago because i saw value in the stock. (This was an independant decision based on my own analysis.)
I am a long term investor and my guiding principle is : I will only buy stocks i am willing to hold for at least 5 years. (I normally hold for 10 years or more.)
Everyone invests based on his or her own rules. I don't think there is any right or wrong way to invest. Everyone is entitled to their own opinions since we have to bear every loss and also enjoy every profit.
This forum is for sharing investment ideas and opinions. We should respect other people's opinions just as we expect them to respect our own.
Thousand thank you to Alphabeta for contributing one more positive element to this community, which helps to retain and increase readership of this forum.
I always believe “WHAT ONE WROTE REFLECTS WHAT HE IS”. I tasted honey before therefore I can describe things as sweet as honey. I saw flowers before, therefore I can describe things as beauty as flower. I tasted “chow tou foo” before; therefore I can tell how nasty it is.
So since he wrote those “disgusting scene”, he must have experienced it himself.
Its best to ignore such nasty remarkes and abuses and the negative vibes they send out will surely go back to themselves .By and large the forummers here are well mannered , educated and having fun ( but not at somelse expense )
Alphabeta, good comments. I would like to say that I agree fully with most of the content. However, I would like to share some thoughts of some differences in opinions in some areas as a follower of value investing. My comments are in capital letters just to differentiate those from Alphabeta.
Posted by Alphabeta > Feb 7, 2014 10:03 PM | Report Abuse
A portfolio that generates 20% or more CAGR on capital invested consistently year after year is only possible through margin financing.
FIRST I DISAGREE WITH THIS STATEMENT. THERE WERE A NUMBER OF INVESTORS WHO HAD OBTAINED MORE THAN 20% RETURN FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME CONSISTENTLY WITHOUT USING LEVERAGE; WARREN BUFFET, PETER LYNCH, JOEL GREENBLATT, GUY SPIER, MOHNISH PABRAI, DAVID EINHORN ETC. THERE ARE FEW THOUGH. FOR THE LAST 5 YEARS (MAY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH) WHEN THE MARKET IS FAVOURABLE, A NUMBER OF FUNDS IN THE BURSA ALSO MANAGED TO ACHIEVE THAT; PHILIP MASTER CAPITAL FUND, KENAGA GROWTH FUND, AND MAAKL-HDBS FLEXI FUND. I AM SURE THERE ARE A NUMBER OF INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS ALSO MANAGED TO ACHIEVE THAT.
IT IS COMMON FOR PEOPLE TO BOAST ABOUT MAKING EXTRA-ORDINARY RETURN THROUGH LEVERAGE, BUT WHAT IS THE PERCENTAGE OF THOSE WHO MADE THAT? MY HUNCH IS THAT A GREAT MAJORITY OF INVESTORS LOST THEIR PANTS BECAUSE OF THE USE OF LEVERAGE. OVER RISK TAKING MAY BE GOOD FOR ENTREPRENEURSHIP, BUT DEFINITELY IS SHOULD NOT BE ENCOURAGED FOR PUNTING IN THE STOCK MARKET. I COULD NOT THINK OF ANY TRULY SUPERINVESTOR ENCOURAGING RATAIL INVESTORS USING LEVERAGE TO INVEST/PUNT IN THE MARKET.
In the above example, the RM 12 return less RM 2 interest (RM 50x4%) will yield RM10 net profit after interest which represent 20% return on your RM 50 seed capital. The risk is loosing 10% of your capital if the share price will not go below 95 cent, any price below that may risk margin call. It will be more complicated with more open trading positions.
A VALUE INVESTOR GENRALLY MAKES ESTIMATIONS OF WHAT IS THE VALUE OF THE STOCK HE INTENDS TO INVEST, AND THEN COMPARE WITH THE MARKET PRICE IF IT IS WORTH INVESTING. WITHOUT COMING OUT WITH AN ESTIMATED VALUE, I DON’T KNOW HOW ONE CAN CONSIDER IF A STOCK IS CHEAP OR NOT. HENCE IT IS STRANGE FOR HIM TO HAVE A STOP LOSS. IF A STOCK WAS CHEAP WHEN HE BOUGHT IT, HOW CAN IT BE EXPENSIVE (AND SELL) WHEN IT HAS DROPPED 10% (WITHOUT ANY CHANGE OF FUNDAMENTALS). SIMILARLY IT DOESN’T MAKE SENSE FOR HIM TO TIME THE MARKET; FOR EXAMPLE SELL IT WHEN UP BY 10%, AND THEN BUY BACK WHEN IT DROPS BACK TO 5% BECAUSE IT IS SIMPLY NOT EASY TO DO THAT. INSTEAD MY EXPERIENCE IS I COULD NOT EVEN GET TO BUY BACK THE STOCK AT THE PRICE I SOLD. MY OWN CASES OF EXAMPLES ARE DATASONIC, JOBSTREET, NTPM, PRESTARIANG ETC. CAN ONE SEE THE LOGIC OF SAY BUY DATASONIC AT 3.50; SELL AT 4.00; BUY BACK AT 6.00 AND SELL AT 7.00; BUY AGAIN AT 9.00 AND SELL AT 10.00?
One of the well known fund manager, Mr.Tan Teng Poh - MD of Capital Dynamics Asset Management has achieved around 14.73% CAGR with its RM 140 million Closed-end fund since inception (19/10/05) til now in term of NAV. 11.44% CAGR in term of share price over same period (approximate 9 years). The CAGR was much better until he decided to hold more cash.
THAT IS PRECISELY WHAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT; THE PERIL OF MARKET TIMING. IT IS VERY STRANGE TO ME THAT A SELF-PROCLAIMED VALUE INVESTOR DOING MARKET TIMING. IT IS HIS ARCHILLES HEEL.
However, if you dared to pick up undervalue stocks with strong fundamental during crisis period like the 1998 Asia meltdown and 2008 global financial crisis. My experience concurred with Mr Koon that you will have very good chance of doubling your monies in three years time.
AGREE WITH THIS STATEMENT, BUT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT THE “VERY GOOD CHANCE” IN THE ENVIRONMENT IN 2008, OR NOW? THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE HERE.
I do not know Mr Koon personally but from the ways he shared his wisdom in a transparent manner, his arguments and conviction on his assessment of JTIASA does carry weight for its future earning prospect. Most important of all, he put monies where his mouth is.
I do respect his entrepreneur spirit which I am lack of, he is an innovator of new ideas (strategy) and has the skill and initiative to make them profitable (execution). The reward for the risks taken is the potential profits he earns. It is also possible that a good strategy with wrong execution will end up making losses.
If you wanted to have super return, you may need to change your thinking cap as entrepreneur and take calculated risks. A good strategy must complement with good execution in order to earn better return. You do have to pay tuition fees along the way to horn your execution skills. I have paid mine in my early stage of investment. we must learn from past mistakes and the best is to learn them from others.
I may consider allocating some risk capital in future in my portfolio. I admit it will be a big mental block I need to overcome from my current objective.
Thanks Mr Koon for sharing your thought generously, it has definitely given me a fresh perspective in scouting for investment targets later.
As I said when you buy I might be selling, so be careful. You buy at your own risk. ----
now that's more honest than before...bravo!!!
so mr koon from your perspective...what should be the lowest price...i mean the best price that people like me can enter jt? if u can help us in this...then u'll be my hero
Kkchongnz, I think this alphabeta is only good at writing beautiful article, don't think he got real combat experience in stock market. You can tell from his assertion that only with margin financing you can achieve CAGR of 20%. Which shows that he has never really experienced it before, hence doesn't have the feel.
Alphabeta said you can only achieve 100% in three years if there is a financial crisis like 1998 and 2008. This showed he doesn't have real feel for the market.
I achieve almost100% return every three years since I started investing by a combination of the following : (1) intense focus on earning of a PLC, not net assets (2) staying away from blue chips (too big) and speculative companies (high financial risk) and focus on mid cap or small cap with reasonable prospects (3) relatively concentrated portfolio of five to sick stocks at any one time, (4) pick stocks that you can feel the earnings visibility (5) moves one step ahead of everybody else. To name a few, I bought kumpulan Fima when it was RM1.10, bernas when it was RM1.20, ijm land-wa at RM0.20, engtex-wb at RM0.25, PJDev-WC at 31 sen, etc...
During 1998 financial crisis, I made 800% over nine months! not 100% over three years. You can only understand this if you have real combat experience.
Yes, it is not wise to borrow and take risk on potential growth stock like JTIASA at the moment for a few good reasons. Possible hike in interest rate, tightening of margin due to worsening market condition etc. but can consider Mr Koon assessment method on companies which practicing more balance approach in capital allocation.
Warren Buffette is smarter, he "leverages" on insurance premium which form bulk of Berkshire Hathaway investment capital.
I use margin. But limit it to 30% of my portfolio. Have been doing so since started investing (fortunately I started investing during the peak of 1998 crisis with KLCI at 250) and so far never margin call (not even during 2008).
Having said so, I was old enough to witness the destruction brought by 1998. It was a totally different ball game compared to 2008 (2008 is a walk in the park)
All these years, I have been keep thinking about 1998 and asked myself how I can come out of it unscathed. Unfortunately, I didn't manage to come up with an answer. My view is that if 1998 hits again, I am going to die standing, together with everybody else.
The only lesson I learned in 1998 was that YOU NEVER GIVE UP. As long as you remain invested, you have not lost yet. As no matter how bad things are, one day the market will rebound when things got sorted out (just look at Indonesia after 1998). As long as you stayed invested, you can recover.
That is the only comfort I have, for a crisis of 1998 magnitude
Yes, you are right ICON8888. I am not an active trader and i don't intend to be one.
I do not look at the screen every minutes. A sizeable portion of my monies is on equities giving recurring income stream. It is only logical for me to take profit if the price move too far ahead to a level when the earning cannot catch up.
I went through the 1987/1998/2008 economic recessions. The worst by far was 1987 for economic problems came with political instability as well. Money was a scarce commodity then, credit almost non-existent and quite a few businesses, including stockbrokers, folded up. Yet, those businessmen who survived became more resilient and made good comebacks in the 90's. One debt laden businessman who almost went bust told me he fought for time to survive, for if he had enough time, he could solve any problem with the turn of the business cycle. He did more than that. He subsequently became a household name for self made wealth and success.
Hi Lohman, 1987 was terrible. Those with margin account got morning call from the banks every other day to top up until finally they have to sell their shares. So newbies don't play margin cos sooner or later the market may go down and you will receive morning call from your financier to top up. Likewise when the market goes up, you hehe n kiki to the bank. Sir, having gone through 1987, 1997 n 2008 you must be full of knowledge n wisdom from your experience. Do share with us, Thank u.
Since i preferred regular income stream and sustainable earning growth, I would look at equities in IPC, consumer, REITs, trading & services sectors.
In early 2009, i have bought into YTL power at an average cost of 1.86 and dividend yield then was 6% and above. Sometime in early 2011, YTL wanted to use YTL Power cash pile to venture into 4G Broadband. Telecommunication business required huge capex. The moment I have read the news, I have sold my holdings at 2.40 in anticipation of declining dividend payment. This was pure reaction to change of business model by YTL Power that will affect my objective. My annual TSR (capital gain plus dividend) was 19%.
After that i entered Zhulian in March 2011 at 1.68, the reason is again due to strong earning and dividend yield. Its strong agencies and products created demand in Malaysia and Thailand. I have sold Zhulian in Nov after a sharp price hike (almost RM 2 in two months) of more than 60%. I must admit this is purely a decision to take profit due to unusual speculation on the counter.
These kind of opportunities does not come often and most of the time you will get around 5%-8% per annum from dividend yield.
Of course before entering a counter, I need to spend almost 2 days (normally during weekend to read annual & analyst reports. Spend 2 hours analyzing its financial performance for the past five years minimum.
If you wanted a decent recurring income with upside potential, check out SUNREIT. Its price has dropped back to a sensible level and its re-opening of its Putra Mall in Penang around 2015 will improve its earning and dividend yield.
Hi Seek ; I am still learning but I can share some experience. One lesson is that no two economic crisis are alike, there is always something different so you can never prepare fully for the next. As for margin borrowing, it is like a double edged sword which you unsheath to use at the right moments only or you're likely to stab yourself. I have a few old scars to remind me of my clumsiness and naivete. I am certainly no super investor; just hope to be significantly above average with new skills and shared knowledge.
ICON8888, very refreshing insight to your investment techniques. We wish for more contributions from you. Wish you all the best in your future endeavours. Also, kudos to Mr Koon for his passion in the stock market and for sharing. For me, I'm happy because I'm finding many other ways to pack a bag.
Trait 7. Finally the most important, and rarest, trait of all is the ability to live through volatility without changing your investment thought process. This is almost impossible for most people to do; when the chips are down they have a terrible time not getting themselves to average down or to put any money into stocks at all when the market is going down. People do not like short- term pain even if it would result in better long-term results. Very few investors can handle the volatility required for high portfolio returns. They equate short-term volatility with risk. This is irrational; risk means that if you are wrong about a bet you make, you lose money. A swing up or down over a relatively short time period is not a loss and therefore not risk, unless you are prone to panicking at the bottom and locking in the loss. But most people just cannot see it that way; their brains would not let them. Their panic instinct steps in and shuts down the normal brain function.
For a long time, I have been trying to teach my wife, close relatives and friends to follow what I did but all of them could not emulate my performance or achievement. I think the reason is that to be a super investor your brain has to be wired differently when you are young. It is a nature built into your brain which cannot be nurtured. By the time you are an adult, either you have it or you don’t have it.
Tahun lepas Dsonic saham paling menguntungkan. So tahun ni ada ke saham boleh beri 200 peratus macam Dsonic? Jtiasa tahun lepas tak hebat, tahun ni pun ala kadar jerr. So tak perlu iklan beribu kali. Abang tau ada satu saham ni boleh beri 200 peratus, bila dah pas baru abang hebohkan...hehehehehe. korang dapat bila gua buang air besar punya, gua belajar dari KYY. Kikikikikki
One thing I can say with almost 99% certainty is that jtiasa won't shine this year. Their trees not fully matured. Even if CPO reaches 3000, they can't be there to pick up the durian
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Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2014-02-07 11:49 | Report Abuse
but this probably not how it play, the sequence is suppose to be like this....
Koon Yew Yin and co accumulate the stocks ---> Koon Yew Yin promote the stock like mad ---> Koon Yew Yin and co push up the price ---> small fishes seeing the price keep going up and regret not buying ---> small fishes start to believe Koon Yew Yin story and start buying at ' high price ' ---> Koon Yew Yin and co sell their stocks and realized big profit ---> small fishes suffer loss and left hanging...
rsawit is a good example..
i dont know why Koon Yew Yin keep revealing his dirty secret... and in the meantime... he still think ppl will keep going to believe him?
thats why i said... if you in a game, and you want to bluff the opponent.. the 1st thing you do is ...you dont reveal your cards... kikiki..