Posted by Ricky Kiat > 2014-02-24 14:07 | Report Abuse

Agree

Posted by hw0706 > 2014-02-24 15:24 | Report Abuse

market not that good. so becareful.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 15:47 | Report Abuse

I am a bit sceptical the claim " FFB production will increase by about 30% per year compound for the next 5 years. ". We can't deny that FFB production has been growing tremendously for past few years. It does not make sense to presume that Jtiasa would grow at this compound rate in future. It is vey unlikely to achieve 30% compound growth from year 2015 onward.

FFB production
Year 2013 - 665,000 MT ( Actual )
Year 2014 - 843,000 MT ( 27% growth )
Year 2015 - 1,002,000 MT ( 19% growth )
Year 2016 - 1,132,000 MT ( 13% growth )

My calculation is based on the mature area of actual planted area of each year with an annual FFB yield from 6MT to 21MT of the trees age.

Posted by tribaleps > 2014-02-24 16:47 | Report Abuse

Almost 700,000t of FFB produced and yet unable to achieve the same profit levels of smaller planters like IJMP and HAPL. Yes, its historical record cannot lie...pathetic historical earnings record.

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-02-24 17:15 | Report Abuse

let us see the production cost of this peat-planting group in relation to other plantation companies.

Posted by hw0706 > 2014-02-24 17:32 | Report Abuse

peak area - high irrigation cost, fertilizer cost, a lot of ncr area which the deman from local never end but still better than indonesia.

Posted by Alphabeta > 2014-02-24 17:35 | Report Abuse

I understand a lot plantation companies are on an expansion trail beside JTIASA. Can anyone provide a statistic on the total planted acreage in the past few years and if all these excess capacity (palm trees matured) come to the market at the same time.

What is the impact on the CPO price?
a> in term of supply and demand equation,
b> the price of competing vegetable oils,
c> unpredictable weather patterns,
d> import policies of consumer countries, and
e> changes in taxation and import duty.

Unless we have answers to the above, we cannot predict for sure the bumper harvest will translate into record profit for JTIASA.

Posted by wmliang > 2014-02-24 17:36 | Report Abuse

If FFB production will increase by about 30% per year compound for the next 5 years,so ffb output at
1)year 2014 = 894,878ton
2)year 2015 = 1,163,341ton
3)year2016 = 1,512,347ton
4)year2017 = 1,966,046ton
5)year 2018 = 2,555,861ton.
Assume JT have planted all 70,000ha. and all their palm oil tree at peak production ( 30 ton per ha. )
JT ffb maximum output (after 10 year) can only achieve 2,100,000ton.
The ffb output 30% per year compound is not match.
Please correct me if i am wrong.

Posted by tribaleps > 2014-02-24 17:39 | Report Abuse

With due respect to Mr Koon, I think he needs to a do a bit more homework on JTIASA. The company has a bad corporate governance reputation and profitability doesn't jive with the operational figures, and analysts in the past have struggled to reconcile the numbers. Institutional investors are largely reserved on these Sarawakian timber-related boys. Think SOP is a better-managed oil palm plantation company.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 17:40 | Report Abuse

Extracted from Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) manual:

Plantation companies with peatland development however reported
that not all their peat estates are yielding equally. Especially low
yields have been recorded on the more woody peat in Sarawak.

The actual achieved FFB yields of prime age oil palms on deep
peat are very contrasting, ranging from about 30 to less than
15 mt/ha/year. Data from the pioneers of oil palm cultivation on
peatland, United Plantations, showed that their early plantings
on deep peat during the 1960s yielded only an average of 12.9 mt/ha over a 12-year period (5th to 16th year of planting).

The main factors affecting this high yield variation are peat type, land preparation,planting techniques, fertilization, water management as well as effective pest and disease control (Peter Lim, Pers. Comms.). Low yields are also experienced by smallholders (who often have little access to financial and technical resources) and the lack of BMP implementation.

It is important to note that a proper drainage system with effective water management structures are crucial to maximize oil palm yield on peat and also to minimize GHG emissions and peat subsidence, which
is vital for prolonging the economic life span of the developed peat.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 17:44 | Report Abuse

wmliang.

maximum scenario for Jtiasa's FFB production 1,772,500 MT/annual ( 70,900 hectare x 25MT )

Posted by tribaleps > 2014-02-24 17:48 | Report Abuse

Sarawak is no Sabah, when it comes to FFB yields....please do more research.
http://bepi.mpob.gov.my/images/Yield/Yield-2013/FFB%20Yield%20(July-December)%202013.pdf

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-02-24 17:54 | Report Abuse

soils in sarawak are mainly rocky/mountainous (inland) or swampy/peat (around the coast). yield projections need to take this into account. Anything above 15 mt/ha will be a big ask for this group, what more with the kind of management they have.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 18:08 | Report Abuse

FFB production 1,063,500mt (70,900 hectare x 15mt) per annum if we take an average 15mt yield per hectare.

Posted by Koon Yew Yin > 2014-02-24 18:14 | Report Abuse

As I said historical record cannot lie. That includes you own track record in making money from the stock market. If you have not been very successful, you must change your attitude or mindset, especially the above commentators who seem to know a lot about Jaya Tiasa.

While you are still finding excuses not to buy JT, it has already gone up from Rm 2.04 from beginning of 2014 to close at Rm 2.54 today, an increase of 50 sens equivalent to about 25%.

The biggest obstacle to success is attitude.

Posted by tribaleps > 2014-02-24 18:27 | Report Abuse

...and you have already forgotten about the stock plunging from over RM2.50 when you promoted it to RM2.00? Perfect timing means buying at the lowest possible point and selling at the highest possible point...I really think that's not the case here. I think some investors who took share placement are still reeling from losses.

The biggest reason for failure is also attitude.

Posted by haikeyila > 2014-02-24 18:34 | Report Abuse

there is only one 'super investor' here who has made money while everyone else is a dunce with poor attitude.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-02-24 18:39 | Report Abuse

He got 40mil shares. Every 50cents increment will make him 20mil profit.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 18:40 | Report Abuse

He has his point. We must ignore some petty issues like low FFB production, low margin, high debt & etc. In order to make money, we must see who is behind driving share price up. He told us many many times that he has been on the board cruising comfortably. Why you guys worry so much? Give ang pau to you guys also wanted to complain. Sigh.

Posted by tribaleps > 2014-02-24 18:47 | Report Abuse

Then we should each all just give him our life savings to manage and expect at least 20% pa return. So we don't have to waste hours of our lives reading bias analysis from self-serving investors.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-02-24 18:52 | Report Abuse

When a stock became popular co's fundamental doesn't matter anymore. Everyone knows MAS loses money but people stii buy it.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 18:55 | Report Abuse

You guys don't know how to behave properly. Why don't be stupid a bit . Listen to me, follow me then you are able to make a lot of money. To be a super investor, you must know when to follow trend and the right person.

Why you want to be so greedy? I have given you 25% ang pau and you still want more from me.

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 19:00 | Report Abuse

Wakkkkaaaa

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 19:00 | Report Abuse

You would never make a lot of money if you behave rational. Don't be too rigid. Sometimes, We need to be irrational.

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 19:02 | Report Abuse

Uncle u forgot to remind everyone 2yrs ago it was 2.30, now 2.50 u already quack like a duck

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 19:09 | Report Abuse

That's why I said you are too rigid. You don't know the market trend? CPO price down down down few years back and you wanted to keep those shares under your bed. That's why you are a normal investor. Wakaaaa

Posted by tribaleps > 2014-02-24 19:11 | Report Abuse

If the intention is a noble one, ie. a sincere effort to enrich people, then it is fine. But sometimes, I find that there some individuals who use their influence to take advantage of the naivety of the less-informed public for self-serving interests. I feel the JTIASA idea is just one of them...and recently EKOWOOD.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 19:15 | Report Abuse

Back to my question again. Why you are so greedy? I asked you guys to buy at 2.00 and if you follow, you would pocket 25% profit less than 3 months.

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 19:37 | Report Abuse

X

if his intention is noble. should ask us buy Dsonic 2 yrs ago. ecoworld 1 yr ago. and iris 1 month ago. all go up 700%, 500% 350%. why buy jtiasa yr2012 2.30 yr2014 2.50, hardly go up 10%.
wakawaka wakkkakakakaakaka.

Posted by Fat Cat Tim Buddy > 2014-02-24 19:41 | Report Abuse

old ppl prefer palm oil stocks.. kikiki..

Posted by Duitbesar > 2014-02-24 19:44 | Report Abuse

Di forum ni ada 3 sifu hebat bagi 100 peratus return. Kcchong, otb and yang satu lagi abang tak mau reveal sebab dia low profile selalu bagi tips kaw kaw. Tapi abang tengok mereka ni tak boastful atau promote berulang kali. Sekali dua cakap saham naik gila. Maaf abang cakap Uncle Koon bukan dalam list sebab terlalu promote Jtiasa dengan politik berat sebelah.

Posted by wt222 > 2014-02-24 19:44 | Report Abuse

Congrats....this is the tenth threads Mr.koon open to promote jtiasa.....I admire his never say die spirit.....kudos.....

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 19:45 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 19:47 | Report Abuse

besar, lu ciakap ini macam u mesti kena flag punya.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 19:47 | Report Abuse

You know how much capital I pump into a single stock. It's 100 million RM . it's not 100 million Rupiah. How can a small capital stock able to defend my attack? It would shot to sky high with my small portion of capital . I am a super investor. It's a different ball game. I have to look for big capital stock.

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 19:49 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Duitbesar > 2014-02-24 19:53 | Report Abuse

Admin tak tau bahasa melayu dah. Optimus guna England dapat bendera british dah.

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 19:54 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 19:56 | Report Abuse

You are a small fly. You would never understand what's in a super investor mind. Making money is just as simple as eating peanut to me. You don't know the real secret of investing. You see my solid track records.

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 19:59 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-02-24 20:08 | Report Abuse

Hey, optimus8. How's your optimus7. Kenya ban ka? U better mind your language otherwise u Kenya ban pula.

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 20:09 | Report Abuse

ksk. gua taklak sekolah. taklak tao apa mind your language. gua suka ciakap gua ciakap lo.

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 20:17 | Report Abuse

I told you already. I did not ask you to buy nor wanted your support. I got plenty of money. I just wanted to remind you the growth of FFB production for the past few years. Why you guys think negatively? It's mentality making a difference man.

Posted by KinSoon Kok > 2014-02-24 20:22 | Report Abuse

Si fu said "Lu no.1 don't lose money. Lu no.2 don't forget lu no.1". There's no such quote that says "Must make money ma". If in doubt, don't buy lo!

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 20:23 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 20:28 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 20:30 | Report Abuse

You must be kidding. You want me to teach you when you need to abandon ship? I feed you with spoon and now you ask me when you can to swallow the food in your stomach. You are not toddler. Just do it yourself man.

Posted by optimus8 > 2014-02-24 20:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Up_down > 2014-02-24 20:39 | Report Abuse

It's the truth. I'm not lying or abuse anything. I am just imagined myself thinking from another perspective.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2014-02-24 20:59 | Report Abuse

"You guys don't know how to behave properly. Why don't be stupid a bit . Listen to me, follow me then you are able to make a lot of money. To be a super investor, you must know when to follow trend and the right person.

Why you want to be so greedy? I have given you 25% ang pau and you still want more from me."

Wah Up Down is that you ? Never seen you so lou hei before. What happened ?