Posted by CFTrader > 2015-06-07 17:58 | Report Abuse

Sifu kcchongz. I personally thank you for sharing a lot of good FA info in this forum, for free. I appreciate it very much. In fact i learn DCF from your prestariang posting.

However speaking about FA and TA , the argument between which is better is meaningless. Investment is a very personal decision - it is tightly related to your mentality , thinking , education and so on.

FA and TA . It is just like a lance (yari) and a sword (katana). If you are a sword master, you will feel the lance is so useless and heavy. But if you are a yari user , you will feel that the sword have no penetration power.

Its all about preference. For me i would use yari for piercing (FA for a set up good playground ), katana for slashing. (TA for entry exit)

Posted by CFTrader > 2015-06-07 18:00 | Report Abuse

When i cant master the sword . I shall not say that sword is useless. I shall say it doesnt fit me.

Posted by inwest88 > 2015-06-07 18:24 | Report Abuse

CF Trader - very good analogy.

Posted by inwest88 > 2015-06-07 18:29 | Report Abuse

I think by this time, most long term investors will be able to see and appreciate KC's efforts in generously sharing his views on value investing. From Day 1, there has never been any recommendation for calls to buy or sell. For those who are under his guidance, I am sure you would reap immense benefits. Do your own assessment.

Posted by qychong > 2015-06-07 19:40 | Report Abuse

Hi All,
Thanks KC and Mr OTB on the contributions you have given.

My views are as follows:
FA was largely made known by Ben Graham, who bought shares significantly below their intrinsic value (until it creates a margin of safety). He did pretty well in investing during his time. This was, however, cheap investments made regardless of the quality of the company. The flaw for this strategy was that most low quality companies never reached its intrinsic value.
Now, his pupil – Mr Buffet understood that and that took it further. Together with his partners Mr. Munger, they developed a strategy for long term investing. This is where the famous quote of Mr. Buffet comes in “The best time to buy is whenever you have money; and the best time to sell is never.” They worked the magic of compounding interest, even though several of their holdings have way exceeded their intrinsic value.

History has it in stone carved that FA works. Just look at way back even before TA was invented during the time Wall Street was firstly set-up – during the time of the industrial revolution. Investors at that time have prospered using prehistoric FA style alone, for e.g. Mr. Rockerfeller.

More on KC’s elaboration on TA above: “TA looks at price movement of shares and uses it to predict its future movements”. TA is created hugely based on behavioural finance, like how we study plant/ animal movements. It is the same concept.

This is where it gets interesting as to why FA works? Having known that TA uses a lot on behavioural finance to predict human behaviour, we can safely say that a strong company with excellent fundamentals has a higher probability to do well as compared to their competitors (some call this economic moat). Also, the main reason behind it is the company culture and management. Those in the working level would clearly understand this point – it is very hard to change company culture. For example: ask a coffee person – coffee or tea?

I believe the main key difference between FA and TA is the exit strategy. FA users do not exit their investments so easily even though the market is volatile. I believe TA, on the other hand, rides the tide and exit based on some technical indicator. Since there is no capital gains are not taxed in Malaysia, the question boils down to “how much commissions/fees have been paid?”

Also, please note for those purely using TA blindly (without any bit of FA):
People who are/ have been in the investment banking industry clearly knows that any TA/ break out/ break down point can be created through intense marketing especially for the share market (not so much on the futures market).

Posted by Tan KW > 2015-06-07 22:19 | Report Abuse

- 冷眼 -

股票市场其实是一个江湖，江湖中的好汉，各显神通，在这湖里争金夺银，他们用来克敌致胜的方法，其实就是一种武器，在江湖的打斗中，难免腥风血雨，在股市这个江湖中，却是夺人财富，但兵不血刃，杀伤力之大，不在真刀真枪的江湖之下。

武林中所用的是十八般武器，股市江湖中所用的价值投资法、基本面法、图表、动力趋势法（Momentum）、投机、取巧、对敲、谣言诱敌、放假消息、求签、拜神、风水，甚至有人以太空梭的发射原理来预测股市趋势，所有这些方法归纳起来，只不过是藉以达到赚钱目标的武器。

方法（武器）花样这么多，究竟那一种方法最有把握？那一种最管用？

十八般武器，每一种都有其长处与短处。世上根本没有十全十美的武器，否则的话，所有的人都会采用该种武器，其他武器就自然而然的被淘汰了。至今十八般武器都仍存在，这一事实就说明了每一种武器都有可取之处。

但在股市这个江湖中，情况就不一样，尽管方法百出，而且不断的推陈出新，但能够经得起时间的考验、历百年而不衰的方法却不多。许多新的方法在开始阶级，都有特出的表现，但都如昙花一现，经过一段时间，就消声匿迹，再也没有人提起，至今硕果仅存，历久弥新的，也不过寥寥数种，而其中荦荦大端者，不外是基本面派和图表派。

究竟那一种方法最管用？其实视个人而定。就好像那一种武器最犀利，在很大的程度上取决於应用武器的人，以及他的功力的深浅。

在股市中人，每个的背景、所处的环境、教育程度、财力状况、个性、人性观、性格倾向、理财理念、风险承受程度、各各不同，投资方式，也就因人而异。适用于甲的，未必适用於乙，适用於中年人的，未必适用於青年人，所以，股票必须由自己去选，别人不能代你选，因为只有你自己才知道你所要的是怎么样的股票，别人越俎代庖，多数帮不上忙。

在三国演义中，即使是刘备、关羽、张飞这三个结义兄弟，所用武器亦各异。刘备用的是双股剑，关羽用的是八十二斤重的青龙偃月刀，而张飞用的是丈八点钢矛。很明显的，都是配合他们的体力而打造的，这样才能在“三英战吕布”的这场惊天动地的厮杀中，配合得天衣无缝。

同样的，在股市中，你必须检讨你自己，了解你自己的个性、财力状况、处事作风、风险承担程度等等，然后据此制订最适合你采用的投资方法。如果你的方法，长期为你创造财富，就证明你已选对方法，走对了路，就应该择善而固执，坚持下去，不可见此山望那山，中途改弦易辙。

http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/newcoldeye/17350.jsp

Posted by F22Raptor > 2015-06-07 22:31 | Report Abuse

Mr Tan KW tks for the article.There are a thousand ways to skin a cat!

Posted by chrisyap > 2015-06-07 22:52 | Report Abuse

要练内功 和气为主的内功 和气生财 kiki

Posted by bracoli > 2015-06-08 02:30 | Report Abuse

Thanks for homeriz kcchong!

Posted by pisanggoreng > 2015-06-08 08:12 | Report Abuse

FA and TA are not difficult to learn and use
Self ego is more difficult to subside
Both so called Sifu KC and OTB please beware
From the recent debate or argument we common investors
had learnt nothing but seeing two super gurus slaughtering
each other.
Your behaviour has told there is not real Sifu but
there is egoistic Sifu. Shame on you. Both of you.

Posted by pisanggoreng > 2015-06-08 09:54 | Report Abuse

Am I wrong?

Please kindly enlighten me

Don't just flag

What I said is good for both Sifu to

reflect on their own self

With their skill and knowledge need not have to

cari makan here. They can win big money and respect

in share market. No problem . I believe they can.

Posted by bracoli > 2015-06-08 10:23 | Report Abuse

Fa stock can sleep well..look at prlexus magni homeriz uchitec..

Posted by Ntpboon > 2015-06-08 10:37 | Report Abuse

Relax, just for laugh............

TA FA 争不停，
孰优孰劣不知情。
二者选谁靠心灵，
运用得当皆能赢。

Posted by pisanggoreng > 2015-06-08 10:38 | Report Abuse

I total FA no TA

OTB also FA assisted by TA.

No right to say TA assisted by FA

Please do not make it so confusing

Or explain in detail how if otherwise

If not , don't play your cari makan trick here

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-08 10:59 | Report Abuse

Dear pisanggoreng,

I hope you can understand English well. I did not say FA is not good. You can check with my subscribers, I will not recommend any stock to buy without fundamental.
I will not buy very good FA stock if the stock is a down trending stock. Hence I focus more on TA.
FA is not my sole stock selection criteria.

I do not want people here to twist my facts.
To win big in stock market, FA alone will not work. You need a combination of market psychology, TA, FA and sectors to focus.
I also use FA to invest, but it contribute only 25% of my total consideration. I focus more on TA.
If FA is very good, technical chart is a down trending stock, I will not buy this stock even the margin of safety is very high.
I am not a long term investor, I want high growth stock so that my ROI is very high in every year.
Thank you.

Posted by Optimusprimier > 2015-06-08 11:21 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Optimusprimier > 2015-06-08 11:24 | Report Abuse

you got to ask yourself, to qualified as a CFA. which is the highest mark in financial analysis and the requirement of all top banks and brokers in the job as analyst.

all they studied is FA, how come no TA. bcos TA can be fabricated by syndicate.

anyone with some money can fabricate a breakout chart. simple as that. and they are many big house will engineer a breakout to sell down. ie. K1.

so if you love to trade the next K1 stock, pls follow OTB.

Posted by bracoli > 2015-06-08 11:30 | Report Abuse

Brader optimus otb rekomen alot undervalue stocks lor... Appreciate his hard works lor..

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-08 11:35 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Optimusprimier > 2015-06-08 11:37 | Report Abuse

my question is, if he otb is so good, he would have been a billionaires now, and why he still want to come here charge a pathetic rm960 a year and fight with everyone to win subscriber?

he can do it for free, like optimus.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-08 11:40 | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/41947.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/42840.jsp

Dear valued readers here,

Please compare the above portfolio, you know the answer.

Optimus can cheat all the people all the times. Talkcock portfolio is belong to him. Please assess his standard yourself.

Thank you.

Posted by 58nchong > 2015-06-08 11:40 | Report Abuse

How to attend OTB's course on FA?

Posted by fortunebullz > 2015-06-08 11:42 | Report Abuse

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > Jun 8, 2015 11:40 AM | Report Abuse

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/41947.jsp

http://klse.i3investor.com/servlets/pfs/42840.jsp

Dear valued readers here,

Please compare the above portfolio, you know the answer.

Optimus can cheat all the people all the times. Talkcock portfolio is belong to him. Please assess his standard yourself.

Thank you.

Answer : I already knew my bro Optimus is using new id, talkcock! Guess OTB and the rest of forummers here also know this! Where to put your red face my bro!

Posted by optimuss1 > 2015-06-08 11:43 | Report Abuse

Agree with optimusprimer. Why must charge us RM 960 if he can make 50% return from stock market? He should be a multi-millionaire by now with his high return. Same also with KC Chong. He claim he has high return yet still want to charge people for his course.

Posted by Optimusprimier > 2015-06-08 12:00 | Report Abuse

bro, give me 5!!!


Posted by optimuss1 > Jun 8, 2015 11:43 AM | Report Abuse

Agree with optimusprimer. Why must charge us RM 960 if he can make 50% return from stock market? He should be a multi-millionaire by now with his high return. Same also with KC Chong. He claim he has high return yet still want to charge people for his course.

Posted by Optimusprimier > 2015-06-08 12:10 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Optimusprimier > 2015-06-08 12:14 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-08 12:25 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by optimuss1 > 2015-06-08 12:29 | Report Abuse

Those who always claim they make high return from stock market should emulate Mr Koon Yew Yin in giving charity not ask more money from i3 forummers.

Posted by Optimusprimier > 2015-06-08 12:31 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by kcchongnz > 2015-06-08 15:55 | Report Abuse

pisanggoreng,

First of all, I have in no way mentioned that I am a sifu or what.
Secondly debating an issue is a healthy thing to do. Don’t we like to see Tan Mahathir debating with Najib on 1MDB thingy to hear both sides of the stories? Not because we want to hear them throwing mud but to understand the issue.

In use of investing strategies, some also like to debate. But in this case, though debating is good, but I think it could be futile, because there is rarely any expert who is very good in both fields in this type of public forums. If they are good, they won’t waste their time in this type of public forum. So that includes me.

When people debate, it is not a matter of egoistic or not, but just trying to put forward their point of view, which I view is not a bad thing. Why do you think it is egoistic?

However, if you read the article/s, if you read it well, is about answering the question:

"To be successful in stock market, FA alone will not work.”

This type of statement is made everywhere. I am not talking about in i3investor only, it is everywhere. So it really doesn’t matter where I copied and pasted this statement. It is just a debating issue.

I believe more than 50% of stock market retail players don’t even know nor care about what FA or TA is, left alone if FA works alone. So it really doesn’t matter who makes this statement.

So I just try to show evidences that FA can work alone, in fact it has worked very well. The gentleman below also shows some concrete result.

“Posted by JT Yeo > Jun 7, 2015 12:00 PM | Report Abuse
If you can make money in the long term while minimising permanent loss of capital using coconut, fengshui, horoscope, zodiac or tarot then go ahead. But to say FA alone doesn't work, you are saying Warren Buffett, Guy Spier, Mohnish Pabrai, Peter Lynch, Walter Schloss, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, David Einhorn, Bill Ackman, Eddie Lampert, management of Sequoia Fund, Tweedy Browne, Ruane Cunniff that they are all being lucky huh?

Maybe they are, Tweedy Browne has published an empirical studies titled "What Has Worked in Investing", please do publish your empirical studies and analysis to disprove their research.”


What is the problem of me or someone else to provide our view that FA dose work alone? Seriously I think it is very good for those not-so-savvy investors to let them know that something works in investing. Come follow it! Don’t you think so? We don’t simply say it.

We provide evidences. If you wish, I can even send you a copy of empirical evidence of

“What Has Worked in Investing" Tweedy Browne

That is the purpose of the argument, and hopeful a good guidance is provided. That is all. Don’t you think most retail investors do need some guidance in FA to invest wisely in the stock market?


Posted by pisanggoreng > Jun 8, 2015 08:12 AM | Report Abuse

FA and TA are not difficult to learn and use
Self ego is more difficult to subside
Both so called Sifu KC and OTB please beware
From the recent debate or argument we common investors
had learnt nothing but seeing two super gurus slaughtering
each other.
Your behaviour has told there is not real Sifu but
there is egoistic Sifu. Shame on you. Both of you.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-08 16:00 | Report Abuse

Optimus what cock u talking ? U have no right to criticize anybody performance. You are the worst type - rush in and out of penny stocks for petty profit and when things turned sour, u lose your pants

Still got guts to say OTB and KC no good ?

Posted by cheayong52 > 2015-06-08 16:10 | Report Abuse

THERE ARE 5 MATRIX TO CONSIDER WHEN INVESTING.THEY ARE
1.THE ECONOMY - WORLD,MALAYSIAN ECONOMY, ASIA ECONOMY,PLANTATION ECONOMY,
CONSTRUCTION AND PROPERTY ECONOMY AND SIMPLE ECONOMICS WILL DO...
2.SIMPLE APPRECIATION OF ACCOUNTS
3.FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
4.TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
5.MANAGEMENT OF THE COMPANIES - THEIR ABILITY TO CREATE AND ADJUST IN THE FACE OF
CHANGING ECONOMIC SCENARIO.
6.PSYCHOLOGY OF MARKETS.

AS FOR MYSELF, I AM GRATEFUL TO ALL OF YOU SIFU WHO HAVE SHARED YOUR INVESTMENT THOUGHTS AND APPROACHES IN THIS FORUM, FOR WHICH I HAVE BENEFITED A LOT.WHETHER FA IS MORE CORRECT OR TA IS BETTER, IT DOES NOT REALLY MATTER.WHAT REALLY MATTERS IN THE END IS WHETHER WHATEVER THE METHOD, WE HAVE BECOME MORE SKILLFUL INVESTORS IN GROWING OUR HARD EARNED MONIES.

I HAVE APPROACHED INVESTMENT AS A BUSINESS, A LONG TERM BUSINESS.LIKE ALL BUSINESSES, THERE ARE UPS AND DOWNS . IN SO LONG, THE BUSINESS MODEL IS VIABLE OVER THE LONG RUN GIVING ABOVE BANK INTEREST/ EPF RETURN AND INFLATION ADJUSTED RETURNS, I WOULD CONSIDER THEM.I WOULD RATHER CONSIDER COMPANIES WHICH HAVE SUSTAINABLE RETURNS OVER A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME RATHER THAN COMPANIES THAT GIVE ONE YEAR OF FANTASTIC PROFITS AND FALL INTO SLUMBER LAND THE NEXT ONE OR FEW YEARS THEREAFTER.

MY STABLE OF COMPANIES ( A FEW LOTS OF EACH 0NLY )
PRESTARIANG,TIMEDOTCOM,MAHSING,LIHEN,L & G,HOMERIZ,BSTEAD,PHARMANIAGA,MATRIX.
GTRONIC,TSH,UCHITEC,SCIENTEX,TAMBUN,GLOMAC,ECOWORLD,SUNWAY,DIALOG,UZMA,, PMETAL,
ENGTEX, GADANG, PRTASCO,PWROOT,OLDTOWN, YINSON,SKPETRO,AFFIN.

JUST SHARING MY THOUGHTS ON THIS ISSUE OF FA VS TA.

Posted by 58nchong > 2015-06-08 16:21 | Report Abuse

I agree that a debate is good n healthy, but avoid gunning someone down if there is any disagreement or that either FA alone or TA alone or TA + FA or whatever combinations fail to produce the desired results. There is no guarantee that stock investment WILL give you gains, it is just the probability.

Posted by Icon8888 > 2015-06-08 16:29 | Report Abuse

The most despicable Are those spread rumors, name calling, etc

Posted by bracoli > 2015-06-08 17:05 | Report Abuse

Brader optimus, in this world there is no free lunch la... U hv to earn it.. Paying for kc or otb courses is no big deal... Easily u can earn them bck in 3-6 mths.. Look at ECS, latitud, prolexus, magni, kesm.. If u invest smartly and diversify, u r laughing already.

Posted by Karenng > 2015-06-08 17:35 | Report Abuse

You spot on Icon8888. I totally agree with you, no name calling. This is where trouble starts. I believe both TA & FA are equally important. If use together can produce better result of profits. However, other factors play in as well and not forgetting the timing and sentiment of market momentum. At the end of it, it also depends how much you are satisfied with the returns or the level of margin of profits. Investment is very subjective, needs lots of knowledge, wisdom, wise execution & experience.

Posted by Optimusprimier > 2015-06-08 17:38 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by Tyrone > 2015-06-08 17:47 | Report Abuse

There is another sifu called HERMAN NG. So many dogs licking his ass in his facebook page. So called magician, always recommend fucked up stocks like HUBLINE. When ask why price goes down, he said lets move on for another stock, this is yesterday's news liao.

Posted by chonghai > 2015-06-08 18:41 | Report Abuse

FA helps to measure the business side of a company. To estimate if a company can make money or survive, you need FA. Investing in company with solid fundamental would pretty much protect the downside. Theoretically if the time horizon is infinity, an investor using FA is unlikely to make any loss. Time is the friend of FA. However, you will never known when you investment is going to bear fruit and you better be patient. Using FA, you should never cut loss unless you notice a "fundamental" change in company, not share price changes.

TA helps to measure the short term perception of investment community towards a company. Over time however, the sentiment will change and it can change rather rapidly. Time factor is tricky to TA. As a result, cut loss is critical to TA because a cut loss point indicates a change in sentiment.

Both FA and TA will make money. TA will run a higher risk of being wipe out but the reward is higher ROI. However, I believe TA is actually harder to master. Any average Joe better learn FA before trying TA. It is easy to have modest return from Investment using FA. I do not know too many who survives for a long period of time using purely TA. In fact I believe to be good in TA, you need to be smarter than average.

Comparing FA and TA are like comparing a Goalkeeper versus a Striker.

I have some confidence in my FA as long as the business is not too complicated. I subscribe to OTB because I have proven myself bad in TA. In addition, OTB is not a pure TA either. OTB is using TA with FA blended in.

Take the case of FGV. Neither Kcchong will not buy. OTB will not buy either no matter how good the chart is because it fails he FA criteria.

Take another case of Kuchai. Kcchong will buy because it is deeply undervalue. OTB will buy when there is signal that something is going to happen to the company. OTB will probably buy at a higher price, less waiting time.

Which method is better ? If you ask me, FA , because I am not so smart. But I believe no one should try to touch TA before having knowledge in FA.

Posted by bracoli > 2015-06-08 20:26 | Report Abuse

Brader tiuron, ppl rekomen but money is urs.. If u chose to follo its ur fault lo.

Posted by tjhldg > 2015-06-08 20:38 | Report Abuse

bravo ! chonghai , 1 write up say it all :)

Posted by Probability > 2015-06-09 00:00 | Report Abuse

agreed...chonghai comments say it very well.
just want to add one thing incase it helps people to make a conclusion on the debate.

TA is ever evolving..dynamic...you have to be at the top of the game all the time...
I guess FA is quite static - a relatively fixed method of analysis.

So...if you are greedy (better said 'high expectations with high risk')...and you think you have an edge over the others..go for TA...if not stay steady with FA.

Posted by gkheng > 2015-06-09 00:27 | Report Abuse

who wins who loses, show us the asset & cash u hav in hand then we all know, hahaha

Posted by chonghai > 2015-06-09 03:49 | Report Abuse

gkheng, no point knowing who wins or who loses. In investment you cannot just choose to follow the more successful person. You need to choose the method that is more suitable for your character. An example:-
FA is about making less mistakes and be confidence with your analysis. The yardstick is on company performance.
TA is about admitting mistakes fast quickly, limiting damages of mistakes and move on. The yardstick is on stock price.
What is your hunch when stock price falls ?

Posted by bracoli > 2015-06-09 05:55 | Report Abuse

Chongchai i saw one guy posted otb rekomen NAIM... The revenue keeps dropping... How? M sure kc will not rekomen this stock...

Posted by chonghai > 2015-06-09 10:24 | Report Abuse

bracoli, I am not sure when OTB recommend NAIM. I am his subscriber since end of last year and I cannot remember coming across NAIM.

To me NAIM is sitting on valuable assets waiting to be unlocked. Nobody will realize when the unlocking will happen. Until then, it is likely to remain undervalued. I will place a small bet on NAIM if it is cheap enough. As for OTB, I don't think so. He is very bearish on all property counters. That could be some time ago and he might have changed his mind on NAIM. Remember that if you use TA, you need to follow the price, not your ego. I prefer my ego, so my TA always failed me.

HUAT LAI is another company that is extremely poor in capital allocation. They are in a wonderful business that is really attractive to me but after going through their capital allocation, I prefer to give it a pass.

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-09 21:37 | Report Abuse

Naim - There is no growth. Hence I will not be interested in this stock. I select it in early 2015 because its PER is low. The last 2 quarter results are not good, hence I avoid it now.
Thank you.

Posted by duitKWSPkita > 2015-06-09 21:40 | Report Abuse

Mr. Ooi...

Mind to share how applicable RSI to be used for short/medium/long term investment.

Thanks for sharing.

warmest,
duit

Posted by Ooi Teik Bee > 2015-06-09 21:44 | Report Abuse

Posted by duitKWSPkita > Jun 9, 2015 09:40 PM | Report Abuse

Mr. Ooi...

Mind to share how applicable RSI to be used for short/medium/long term investment.

Ans : I do not like to use RSI, I prefer Force Index.
I feel that RSI is always not good enough, it will frighten you to buy when the market is very bullish.
I think it is good to use it in medium term.
Thank you.