Posted by moneySIFU > 2016-05-24 16:20 | Report Abuse

有头咸鱼在那里游泳，吓得所有的人都不敢下场，哈哈

Posted by sotsot1986 > 2016-05-24 17:00 | Report Abuse

头脑简单的分析，看多会变白痴

Posted by younginvestor92 > 2016-05-24 20:17 | Report Abuse

问题是你还没算美金对 operating cash flow 的影响。。。

Posted by citychew_1886 > 2016-05-24 22:44 | Report Abuse

good analysis ! thanks you so much Harryt30 .

Posted by YiStock > 2016-05-25 00:25 | Report Abuse

Harryt30,

1) i think there is a typo mistake at last part, it should be 17,999 x 0.0909, not 0.909
2) i feel that your calculation method got some error. Of course, i'm not 100 % sure my method is correct.

When i estimate foreign currency risk, i will NOT use % of currency change to multiply direct with the net exposure. Instead, i use dollar and cents change

Please see below potential forex loss of Hevea due to positive dollar exposure.

RM 17,999 (carrying amount) x RM 0.39 change = RM 7,019 (my answer)

VS

RM 17,999 (carrying amount) x 9.09% change = RM 1,636 ( your answer)

See below:

RM 0.409 / 4.5 = 9.09%
RM 0.818 / 9.0 = 9.09%

both give same 9.09%. but different by 0.818 - 0.409 = 0.409 different x 17,999 = RM 7,361 forex gain or loss shortage/ different.

Therefore, i think is more accurate to use dollar and cents rather than using %.

Posted by Tom > 2016-05-25 09:14 | Report Abuse

这染叫harry每天只会猜亏损
我已经准备好钱，准备大量买进hevea-wb。。。。。。

Posted by Tom > 2016-05-25 09:20 | Report Abuse

坐等业绩报告出炉

Posted by Multibagger > 2016-05-25 20:08 | Report Abuse

Hi Yistock

I would say both method you compared should be the same...just that you have use rm17.999 mil.i believe it shud be translate to usd first using original exchange rare...then only use the usd multiply by 0.39.

Posted by YiStock > 2016-05-26 10:43 | Report Abuse

Multibagger, sorry, not sure with what you meant by same as the result is different. And 17,999 is already converted, therefore no need to reconvert to do calculation. I believe is double work.

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-05-26 14:08 | Report Abuse

Haha. I don't want to talk too much before the result is out, but if my calculations are correct, I think Harry will get wrong.

Posted by Multibagger > 2016-05-26 20:12 | Report Abuse

Hi Yistock

Hope the below example helps

I have USD 1000 three months ago..exchange rate 4.39 . It was RM4390
Today exchange rate 4.00. it is at RM4000. I lost 1000 X RM0.39= RM390

Or using %..exchange fluctuation = 0.39/ 4.39 = 8.88%

My loss = RM4390 X 8.88% = RM390

Posted by YiStock > 2016-05-26 21:49 | Report Abuse

Multibagger, your calculation make every sense. Thank you for correcting me.

Posted by Multibagger > 2016-05-27 06:11 | Report Abuse

No worries Yistock. In fact, I enjoyed reading your blog and sharing. Keep up the good work!

Posted by kakasi123 > 2016-05-28 06:37 | Report Abuse

@ezra, according to multibagger, he means harry is correct

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-05-28 15:00 | Report Abuse

@kakasi123 - I'm not referring to Multibagger's or YiStock's statement, because I didn't read their comments. I'm referring to Harry's whole article.
如果笔者的【估算+预测】是正确的，那么HEVEA也够可怜的。不过美金起获跌都亏钱，但是还好亏不多。共勉之。
Utter nonsense.
Hevea result is out and proved he is wrong.

Posted by Harryt30 > 2016-05-28 23:32 | Report Abuse

I am holding Hevea, Last year Forex losses is 2.849 mil when USD going up.
And now USD move down, HEVEA also got 1.161 mil forex losses.
I think my statement is correct.

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-05-29 01:06 | Report Abuse

Your figure will most likely get wrong because you're using 2015 AR as benchmark.
They have paid all USD denominated loans in as of March 2016 by settling one (1) year ahead of the original repayment schedule. By doing so, it will affect the interest expense.

Posted by Ezra_Investor > 2016-05-29 01:10 | Report Abuse

No offense lah, just being critical only. I've been holding Hevea also.
If you want you can stand by your calculations, while I will stand by mine too.