Yes it work when the company show growing profit you buy more and chase high so that KYY can sell to you. When the company showed decreased profit you sell like no tomorrow so that KYY can buy cheap.
My cnmc goldmine posted increasing profits for 8 consecutive quarters, but share price went down instead of up, just because it is related to a maligned sector, gold mining. Maybe golden rule applies only to kyy stocks coz he has the financial capacity to push up his recommendations to make his rule work. If that's the case, what's there to boast?
KC, soojinhou, CharlesT and many others, you all are my friends.... but sorry guys, Golden Rule works... This is based on real life experience, not theory.
In the article, KC seemed to based his observation on y-o-y EPS changes. The Golden Rule works for Q-o-Q
If a stock's current quarter EPS is higher than previous Q, its price will move up, most of the time (I would say more than 90% chance).
But you guys don't have to agree with me. Use whatever method that suits you.
Anyway, as per my earlier article, my observation of KC is that deep in his heart, he is also an earning guy, despite what he said about cash-flow, EV, etc. In that respect, there is really not much difference between KC and I.
think both magic formula and golden rule can work as proven by the veteran here, both have something in common, the company must make profit, it is unfortunate for those bought at wrong price.
What golden rule....all really depend a lot on klci...if klci in major fast fall like 4th q 2014 and 2nd q 2015...whatever profit result also go to holland...if bad result then down more and gd result still down but at lesser degree. If happen that klci on rebound where result is announced then high chance that stock will rebound. No matter what if a stock is already in long term downtreand,no matter what long run will still go down like what happen to klci now. FA works well in uptrend but not downtrend. That why FA forever has the weakness of enter and exit late. That why FA long run always give average 15-20% return. The biggest advantage of FA it gives u confirm signal b4 u act. On risk mgt it is gd. U act only when signal is clear and confirm. This is critical when u invt portfolio is huge.
Icon8888, it works if the growth in earnings is beyond market expectation. If growth is lower than market expectation, share price might actually decline.
Your strenth is your weakness and your weakness is actually your strength, you need to know your strength and make that strength into your weakness so that you can have use your old weakness to produce new strength.
you want new strength and not old ones as you grow old.
You need to get other people to help you and not get yourself to help other people mah. Your direction is in opposite direction. How can you produce new strength with old strength as you are getting older.
Icon8888, oh definitely not as simplistic as that, and definitely not as simplistic as the "golden rule" from trumpet blowing old man. That's why I like to make fun of his "golden rule". But of course, most of the time it works for me also, no one can resist the allure of a fast growing company. But even I I wouldn't dare to blow trumpet and call it my golden rule like it's some kinda Shaolin secret ya know.
yes, I think investors are looking ahead to see weaker earnings in coming quarters. That is why they sell down despite existing strong earning
In my previous comment, I disagree with soojinhou that weaker earning growth will lead to price decline, instead, I argue that even with flat growth, price will not only NOT decline, it might continue to go up
However, I do believe that earning decline will result in share price decline (as pointed out by shareinvestor88)
========================
Posted by shareinvestor88 > Dec 18, 2016 10:12 AM | Report Abuse
Gold shares are coming down as i see it in ASX. Despite good profit. I suspect the share price reacts faster to gold price rather that profit 1st.
He has got the "Golden Rule" correct, but he himself is a very poor practitioner of it.
The Golden Rule works if you are able to predict next few quarters EPS as accurate as possible (nobody guarantee you can get them right, but it is at least an educated bet. Better than buying lottery). However, he didn't do that at all. Instead, he goes on helicopter rides, etc. Now even worse, he is branching out to "buying up trending stocks", "business sense", etc... all kind of nonsenses that will only introduce more chaos and unpredictability to his own portfolio .
I have written about this before - the Golden Rule is correct, but the devil is in the details. If you cannot get the details right, you cannot get the Golden Rule to work
Posted by CharlesT > Dec 18, 2016 10:18 AM | Report Abuse
My golden rules....when koon asks to buy U sell,when koon asks to sell U buy....the winning rate is higher than monkey n most stock analysts
Icon8888, I wasn't talking about recent slide in gold price and recent price movement of CNMC. I was referring to the period 2014-15 when CNMC was ramping up production and nobody bothered despite magnificent FCF and PE as low as 5. Gold had stabalized at around 1100, but there were a bunch of dumb technical analysts calling for 800 despite average global production cost at 1200. Anyway, CNMC was left to rot below 20 cents for prolonged periods. I stayed patient and enjoyed the market rerating to 60 cents when catalyst came along and suddenly everyone sing praises like as if CNMC was just listed yesterday. My point is precisely yours, things are not as simplistic as "golden rule" in the share market
ok got it... I don't really understand the CNMC case so I better don't say so much. soojinhou is not KYY or sostupid. Most of the time, soojinhou knows what he is talking about. LIKE
Posted by soojinhou > Dec 18, 2016 10:31 AM | Report Abuse
Icon8888, I wasn't talking about recent slide in gold price and recent price movement of CNMC. I was referring to the period 2014-15 when CNMC was ramping up production and nobody bothered despite magnificent FCF and PE as low as 5. Gold had stabalized at around 1100, but there were a bunch of dumb technical analysts calling for 800 despite average global production cost at 1200. Anyway, CNMC was left to rot below 20 cents for prolonged periods. I stayed patient and enjoyed the market rerating to 60 cents when catalyst came along and suddenly everyone sing praises like as if CNMC was just listed yesterday. My point is precisely yours, things are not as simplistic as "golden rule" in the share market
KYY recently has turned very scary. First, he asked people to buy gadang, after that, he asked people to sell, causing the price to plunge. Yesterday, he revealed that he bought back at 88 sen.
Icon is not know the tricky part but have gone through the hardwork in applying the golden rules.
I like this statement: " I have written about this before - the Golden Rule is correct, but the devil is in the details. If you cannot get the details right, you cannot get the Golden Rule to work . "
He's a businessman in stock market. He will do whatever it takes to maximize profit. That includes breaking disclosure rules and lie through his teeth to influence share price. He doesn't have any ethics when it comes to profit.
100% agree with soojinhou on that... only sochais think that he is "teaching them how to fish"
he is treating this as a business... he is secretly laughing at his other Datuk and Tan Sri friends.... "you sochais work your ass off, run around like headless chickens trying to make money... I can do that by just sitting in front of computer". I can almost imagine the smug on his face
KYY golden rule for stock selection: Before you buy any share, you must make sure that the company can make more profit in the current year than last year by looking at its profit for the last 2 quarters and the projected P/E ratio is less than 10. If it has very good profit growth prospect, you may buy it at higher P/E ratio.
<<< before you buy a share, make sure that the company can make more profit in the current year than last year >>>
How? How good are you in determining this? Business sense? Common sense? Is the company growing its revenues? Is the company maintaining or increasing its profit margins? What are the factors favouring or against it, making a higher profit this year than last year? Do you have all the information to make a good decision? Who have all the information to make a good decision? Do analysts get this right, though the managements share with them more than the average investors? Are the information available reflecting the true business environment or are they selected to sway the investors in a certain way?
I agree with 3iii...accounts can be manipulated,contracts can be swifted.anyhow the insider cannot lose. example like KFM.they bought a particular stock,if they manage to sell off they deny taking over the stock. if they can't unload the stock they inject something to push it up so the retailers who always chase stocks will get stuck
low paid up capital stocks are being cornered like ajinomoto,dutch lady and BAT.ajinomoto earning down yet so expensive.only worth less than RM 8. so is dutch lady and BAT. dutch lady worth less than RM 30 same as BAT.dutch lady earning will down due to higher USD and BAT profit next quarter will down due to higher tax and many illegal cigarettes on the market.
Well...if you are the prevention focused people, those types satisfied by mutual fund returns, go do what KC teaches.
If you want the stock market to make a difference....better to develop your business sense, your sense of timing, take calculated risks, use margin accounts, and the golden rule for stock selections is a sound one ( with some personal tailoring to suit your own taste)....like I said, pivotal moments are the 1% time, you can make a difference...99% of a stock life, ask sifus also no use.
my lectures free one.
================================ KC...In my opinion, it is better to follow a well-established and proven investing strategies backed by academic research, well documented success, and plausible reasoning to build long-term wealth.
and I think successful investors and traders have to at least read the annual reports and the announcements and understand them. If you don't read the AR, it is difficult to buy enough to make real money.
every fund manager goes through the same training as KC does. But look at the mutual fund performances. You satisfied with those? What makes you think you are better than them in their game?
You want to out perform them, you got to play by a different set of rules....and the set of rules is the same set of rules used by all successful entrepreneurs....whether accountants or engineers or char gui teow man.
Posted by Icon8888 > Dec 18, 2016 10:43 AM | Report Abuse
KYY recently has turned very scary. First, he asked people to buy gadang, after that, he asked people to sell, causing the price to plunge. Yesterday, he revealed that he bought back at 88 sen.
KYY is old already .... he somethimes forget his golden rule he knows he had made a mistake in gadang but shy to admit his own mistake. That is why he say " I have to decide when I should start selling to make profit" hoping he is not so wrong , still consistent in this doing
Posted by stockmanmy > Dec 18, 2016 01:59 PM | Report Abuse
every fund manager goes through the same training as KC does. But look at the mutual fund performances. You satisfied with those? What makes you think you are better than them in their game?
You want to out perform them, you got to play by a different set of rules....and the set of rules is the same set of rules used by all successful entrepreneurs....whether accountants or engineers or char gui teow man.
I disagree with above statement. As retail investors we have many advantages over the mutual fund managers. 1. Mutual fund managers has to worry about short term performance. Investors of their funds chase short term performance, if they underperform for just 1 year, they will experience capital flight. As individual investor, I set the rules myself and can afford to take a long term view on my investments. This means I can truly practice buying low and selling high. 2. Because of their large funds, mutual fund's universe of stocks is much smaller than a retailer hence all of them are crowding around the same large cap stocks. As a retailer, I can invest in small undiscovered companies which are undervalued even if they are illiquid. 3. Mutual fund managers are appraised based on their fund performance against a certain benchmark. If KLCI drops 10%, they drop 9%, they are considered to outperform. Hence they will rather be closet indexers (meaning buying mostly the index stocks to protect their rice bowl. As individual investors, I am free from such constraint, my portfolio could be totally different from the index hence have a higher chance to outperform.
Icon8888, that's why I said last weeks when KYY asked people to sell Gadang, he might has "hidden agenda". So his agenda was to press down Gadang's price so that he can get it cheaper. Although I somehow benefited (i bought cheap too) from his evil deed, I still despise what he has done. He will use a portion of those money he won to donate, and tell the whole world his "kindness" and win praises from his followers. What a crooked old man he has been.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------- Icon8888 KYY recently has turned very scary. First, he asked people to buy gadang, after that, he asked people to sell, causing the price to plunge. Yesterday, he revealed that he bought back at 88 sen.
stockmanmy I m disagreeing with your statement that applying KC's principles of investing will result in us retailers getting the same returns as the mutual funds. As retailers we fish in different and smaller ponds than the mutual funds, we dont have to compete with them. That was my point.
many do not interested or understand the true value of "buy low sell high" not many huhuhaha... song to sing everyday
i use KC MF and had chosen Gadang as my target bought low 2 years ago and sold 40% high. the remaining 60% is now free +profit in the pocket with good potential of further growth
Golden Rule = Buy stocks that highly potential to report increased core profit in coming quarters/year at price that has yet to priced in the expectation of EPS growth, with an absolute MOS. Sign of company making more profit in future can comes from capacity expansion, M&A, favorable macro/business environment & etc. Mr.market will soon or later absorb all these catalyst into share price, but before it does that's the time we act and make profit out of it.
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This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
Whey Whey
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Posted by Whey Whey > 2016-12-18 06:39 | Report Abuse
Yes it work when the company show growing profit you buy more and chase high so that KYY can sell to you. When the company showed decreased profit you sell like no tomorrow so that KYY can buy cheap.