Hehehe. Buy at own risk lor. Probability, paperplane and david paper gain from refinery stock is already enough to beat many top fund managers lah. It is a matter of earn more or earn less only
Moreover, in a weak economy environment, Petron with integrated and leaner structure(fewer staffs in both operation and retail stations) will win over the longer term.
Actually, I have a very good research rpt saying about Philippines and it's future. Oil consumption is one of the area. Now I understand why Philippines wanna expand their refinery capacity. Because in near future, they might have constraints meeting the increasing demand! It is growing at a scary pace there now! Then u understand why petronm and Corp decided to expand! I doubt their game plan will be even Philippines expansion of capacity is not enough to meet the demand,so they have to expand Malaysia also just in case iMport is required in future .
By the, you can expect high div yield for future years to come, as petronm need to upstream their. Cash or div back to Philippines to expand! So I doubt petronm will have low div, it will be stably more and more only log! With their position in net cash, they can even pay more dividend now! Imagine 300mil to 400mil a yr, free cash flows after capex, expenses etc. That's RM1 per yr. Even half use to pay div also 0.50 per share
Wow, really impressive with the FCF. Add more again and again when price drop and dumb dumb hold till next year......why not ? Just need a little patience.
Anyway, thanks David for your king sharing, keep up the momentum.
Between Petron and Heangyuan, I think petron is one stock that can hold tight for many years. Yes, the refinery business is volatile but lets just imagine 10 years down the road. The refinery capacity will be much bigger. There will be more petrol kiosks. Management has created RM 1 billion in value over 3 years. If history is of any sign, another RM 3 billion will be created in the next 10 years.
Just check with one of the Petronm employee, there is catalyst shutdown during 26/April to 27/May, Sumato88 is right about this.During shutdown Petronm bought gasoline from Singapore, so the cost of sale is higher. Q3 will be better. Anyway, David report is professional class. Thanks.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
eyewitness
49 posts
Posted by eyewitness > 2017-08-24 20:49 | Report Abuse
Would not "theoretical unrealised stock loss" become actual loss when converted from stock to actual sales later?