Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:09 | Report Abuse

I find so funny that this fellow so cocky want to sell service to Uncle Koon by writing open blog. Really no shame. He sure think hard a few days to write the letter to Uncle Koon. "Wah this time my opportunity come liao! KYY lose money. Is desperate. If i offer help him make money he sure think about it".

He didnt realise the whole laugh. He just made himself look so silly.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:09 | Report Abuse

Its a metaphor. Some events that happen are one off and have little bearing on the company's or the person's life in general.

first time 100 mark for maths. Well thats good, but that does not mean he will be nobel prize winner. The probability just went up by 0.5% or something.

You son took his first hit of heroin. Well. This one is likely to have a huge effect. His intrinsic value just went down at least 30%, even if he seems fine for the next 3 months.

=====
Just because your son fail one exam, does that mean he go from genius to retard? No mah.

(P) : how did you manage to link a son performance with a business performance...they are equally erratic?





They are. Probablity is low. 1% of bursa companies is about 9.

There are probably around 10 or less who have consistently maintained high ROE and ROIC for the last 20 years, coupled with increasing earnings. We use this as proxy to "record earnings for life".

as a whole, corporate earnings growth cannot exceed gdp growth for any significant amount of time, without having very very inequal outcomes. Like what happened in the US from 1970-now.

===
That is clearly not the case for pretty much 99% of the companies in bursa.

(P) : really? there are no companies that continue growing their earnings after such events?






Markets are dynamic, crack spread do not stay fat all the time. Comodity prices do not stay high all the time. Even when its really hard to get like cobalt and lithium

If its expensive, people will find alternatives.

If crack fat, people delay maintainence, increaseing supply, lowering spread.

If crack thin, people do maintainence now, decreasing supply, fattening spread.

The only questions is, how good is you plant to begin with. I wrote this so many bloody times, and i can't rmbr how many times, i, ricky and 3iii got called pondan.

Same thing with steel etc etc.

====
(P): How did you conclude that the record earnings was going to be one time event and will not be the norm going forward at the time of the results?

what is the underlying mechanism that it wont be so....

and why did the market assume so and gave a price of RM 19?





So how do we counter this? When intrinsic value can shift so much or so little, whether up or down?

Improve thinking process.

Margin of safety, and being conservative loh. Ben Graham 101.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:11 | Report Abuse

Think properly lah Jon. Uncle Koon is billionaire. He lost this money heart a bit pain only. Wont affect his wealth much. At his level of wealth, he only not happy losing and ego kena knock.

You totally dont understand other people's thinking. Only your way to think is correct, right?

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:12 | Report Abuse

I3value.

Yeah, i'm always wondering if im wrong.

And i always write long long so that people can see my thought process and hopefully poke holes in them and show me to be a fool.

Its better to find out you are one, than to actually be one and not know.

I dont write to share knowledge with, though if one found it helpful, i am pleased.

I write to crystlize my thoughts, to organize my thinking better. Writing is like thinking, but on steroid.

As for an audience. I'm fine with a few, with one or with zero.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:13 | Report Abuse

And you got your facts wrong. He is not a billionaire, but a millionaire.

Right now after that burn, he should still have about RM100m, but barely. I doubt he has Rm200m.


====
Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:11 PM | Report Abuse

Think properly lah Jon. Uncle Koon is billionaire. He lost this money heart a bit pain only. Wont affect his wealth much. At his level of wealth, he only not happy losing and ego kena knock.

You totally dont understand other people's thinking. Only your way to think is correct, right?

Posted by probability > 2018-12-03 17:19 | Report Abuse

Ok Jon, looking at your feedback below...i can say you have a very different world which you are living as someone just said.

I must be living in my own world (unreal) as perceived by you.

Very difficult to bridge this two world...

At least i managed to get a glimpse of your world (dont wish to be there frankly)..

may be we can discuss again when either of our world comes a little closer in the future..

bye for now


Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:07 PM | Report Abuse

Its a metaphor. Some events that happen are one off and have little bearing on the company's or the person's life in general.

first time 100 mark for maths. Well thats good, but that does not mean he will be nobel prize winner. The probability just went up by 0.5% or something.

You son took his first hit of heroin. Well. This one is likely to have a huge effect. His intrinsic value just went down at least 30%, even if he seems fine for the next 3 months.

=====
Just because your son fail one exam, does that mean he go from genius to retard? No mah.

(P) : how did you manage to link a son performance with a business performance...they are equally erratic?





They are. Probablity is low. 1% of bursa companies is about 9.

There are probably around 10 or less who have consistently maintained high ROE and ROIC for the last 20 years, coupled with increasing earnings. We use this as proxy to "record earnings for life".

as a whole, corporate earnings growth cannot exceed gdp growth for any significant amount of time, without having very very inequal outcomes. Like what happened in the US from 1970-now.

===
That is clearly not the case for pretty much 99% of the companies in bursa.

(P) : really? there are no companies that continue growing their earnings after such events?






Markets are dynamic, crack spread do not stay fat all the time. Comodity prices do not stay high all the time. Even when its really hard to get like cobalt and lithium

If its expensive, people will find alternatives.

If crack fat, people delay maintainence, increaseing supply, lowering spread.

If crack thin, people do maintainence now, decreasing supply, fattening spread.

The only questions is, how good is you plant to begin with. I wrote this so many bloody times, and i can't rmbr how many times, i, ricky and 3iii got called pondan.

Same thing with steel etc etc.

====
(P): How did you conclude that the record earnings was going to be one time event and will not be the norm going forward at the time of the results?

what is the underlying mechanism that it wont be so....

and why did the market assume so and gave a price of RM 19?





So how do we counter this? When intrinsic value can shift so much?

Margin of safety, and being conservative loh. Ben Graham 101.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:23 | Report Abuse

You write so long for what? Go straight to the point. Only people with no confidence but still want to show smart keep repeat and repeat. And then write long long throw in technical terms and want other believe to see you as smart. You think still in university need to score point for essay?

----------

Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:12 PM | Report Abuse

I3value.

Yeah, i'm always wondering if im wrong.

And i always write long long so that people can see my thought process and hopefully poke holes in them and show me to be a fool.

Its better to find out you are one, than to actually be one and not know.

I dont write to share knowledge with, though if one found it helpful, i am pleased.

I write to crystlize my thoughts, to organize my thinking better. Writing is like thinking, but on steroid.

As for an audience. I'm fine with a few, with one or with zero.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:27 | Report Abuse

You must have failed your reading comprehension.

"i3value is a retard."

That statement is useless mah. must support with reasoning and example mah.

unless for you, you only need that to make your conclusions lah.

In that case youre an analyst's dream. Just say "buy", you rush to sailang!

====
Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:23 PM | Report Abuse

You write so long for what? Go straight to the point. Only people with no confidence but still want to show smart keep repeat and repeat. And then write long long throw in technical terms and want other believe to see you as smart. You think still in university need to score point for essay?

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:27 | Report Abuse

You are his stomach worm? How you know?

Your brain really got big problem. People's wealth you know?

"Right now after that burn, he should still have about RM100m, but barely."

Can see your thinking. You know how much Uncle Koon got? You sure dont know what! But also you can write like his bank statement is in front of you.

----------

Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:13 PM | Report Abuse

And you got your facts wrong. He is not a billionaire, but a millionaire.

Right now after that burn, he should still have about RM100m, but barely. I doubt he has Rm200m.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:28 | Report Abuse

Alright. If you say so, it must be the case.

I've reread what i've written a few times, and it still made sense to me. I have no idea how its a completely different world.

But, that must really be the case. I'm planning to read market wizards just so if i can see it better.

Probably going to get a headache, but for the reference experience, no choice.

===

Posted by probability > Dec 3, 2018 05:19 PM | Report Abuse

Ok Jon, looking at your feedback below...i can say you have a very different world which you are living as someone just said.

I must be living in my own world (unreal) as perceived by you.

Very difficult to bridge this two world...

At least i managed to get a glimpse of your world (dont wish to be there frankly)..

may be we can discuss again when either of our world comes a little closer in the future..

bye for now

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:29 | Report Abuse

Its called an educated guess.

It uses the same thought process that one needs to go through life, value shares, intereact with people.

You either lack it, or you're purposely ignoring it.

Im not sure which is worse.


====
Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:27 PM | Report Abuse

You are his stomach worm? How you know?

Your brain really got big problem. People's wealth you know?

"Right now after that burn, he should still have about RM100m, but barely."

Can see your thinking. You know how much Uncle Koon got? You sure dont know what! But also you can write like his bank statement is in front of you.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:31 | Report Abuse

Everyone also say this Jon live in different world. But then to Jon, he is the only one correct. Everyone else living in wrong world, everyone brain is short curcuit, no one else read as much as him, only Jon is correct.

----------

Posted by probability > Dec 3, 2018 05:19 PM | Report Abuse

Ok Jon, looking at your feedback below...i can say you have a very different world which you are living as someone just said.

I must be living in my own world (unreal) as perceived by you.

Very difficult to bridge this two world...

At least i managed to get a glimpse of your world (dont wish to be there frankly)..

may be we can discuss again when either of our world comes a little closer in the future..

bye for now

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:37 | Report Abuse

When people like you say something like that.

Im not sure to be comforted to worried. On one hand, the crowd is defintiely stupid, having gone through the statistics at a friends brokerage firm.

On the other hand, i'm constantly worried, because there is no way im right all the time. But for some reason, its almost never the people i meet in real life who show me that, but those i can only meet in books.

Oh well, good luck to us both i guess. Dont be another statistic in my friend brokerage.

You know the ones who win big ones, margin and sailaing, lose even more. Then diam d, no trade for a few months while pay back debt.

Before after sometime, start back again same pattern.

I noticed you said this is a new account after awhile. Good luck!


=====
Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:31 PM | Report Abuse

Everyone also say this Jon live in different world. But then to Jon, he is the only one correct. Everyone else living in wrong world, everyone brain is short curcuit, no one else read as much as him, only Jon is correct.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:37 | Report Abuse

As usual, call names again. Show your low level of intelligence, Jon.

----------

Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:27 PM | Report Abuse

You must have failed your reading comprehension.

"i3value is a retard."

That statement is useless mah. must support with reasoning and example mah.

unless for you, you only need that to make your conclusions lah.

In that case youre an analyst's dream. Just say "buy", you rush to sailang!

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:39 | Report Abuse

Comprehension fail again.

Student mistakes an "example", for an "accusation".

May be due to deep held insecurity.

Alright this is low, its like insulting children. It only brings me down.

Ciao!
====

Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:37 PM | Report Abuse

As usual, call names again. Show your low level of intelligence, Jon.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:42 | Report Abuse

This is call the need to get people praise you and agree to your thoughts. Obviously major insecurity deep inside.

----------

I write to crystlize my thoughts, to organize my thinking better. Writing is like thinking, but on steroid.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:46 | Report Abuse

Your writing style is always try to attack others but you leave a way out for yourself when people criticise you. So obvious. Want to insult others but yet scared other people see you lowly. This is call snake. Not smart or intelligent.

----------

Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:39 PM | Report Abuse

Comprehension fail again.

Student mistakes an "example", for an "accusation".

May be due to deep held insecurity.

Alright this is low, its like insulting children. It only brings me down.

Ciao!

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:49 | Report Abuse

There we go again. You so sure of yourself obviously you will never see anything wrong with your own thoughts lah.

----------

Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:28 PM | Report Abuse

I've reread what i've written a few times, and it still made sense to me. I have no idea how its a completely different world.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 17:58 | Report Abuse

When the person disagreeing is you, i'm naturally more confident of my conclusions.

If it was say kc, or ricky, or 3iii. I will need to think much deeper about the tradeoffs and my perspective.

Look, if you're going to crticize, be specific and elucidate.

Do you mean i leave a way out, or i have considered most factors well?

Look, its very easy to prove me wrong. Like my recent rcecap piece.

Just show me its overvalued, or my thinking on the economics is completely wrong.

Show me if they are hiding impairments elsewhere, cash is not real, valuations actually very high. Etc etc.

Thats it.

====
Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:49 PM | Report Abuse

There we go again. You so sure of yourself obviously you will never see anything wrong with your own thoughts lah.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 18:06 | Report Abuse

Insult, insult, insult. Call names. That your nature.

Again clear signs of insecurity and lack of self confidence.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 18:08 | Report Abuse

What do you think?

You think only you know what you are doing but others cant see?

Aiyoh.......... You really think you are the smartest person in the world right?

----------

Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:58 PM | Report Abuse

Do you mean i leave a way out, or i have considered most factors well?

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 18:10 | Report Abuse

Why ask me talk rcecap to you? I didnt even mention rcecap. This is not even your rcecap blog.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 18:12 | Report Abuse

Brother,

Do you even see the accusations you levied against me in your very first message to me? As well as every subsequent one?

My gosh, it really is true. people are most blind to their own flaws.

Haha, dont get your panties in a bunch. Now you just look bad to be honest.

And i look even worse for intereacting with you, to deign your insults with a reply.

Its really true. Never argue with a fool. They'll pull you down to their level and beat you with experience!

====
Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 06:06 PM | Report Abuse

Insult, insult, insult. Call names. That your nature.

Again clear signs of insecurity and lack of self confidence.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 18:20 | Report Abuse

This so funny. You reply my accusation of you being insulting by throwing more insults.

Your brain ok?

I quote you:

“My gosh, it really is true. people are most blind to their own flaws.”

Posted by Ayoyo > 2018-12-03 18:55 | Report Abuse

Jon is still very raw.. Eventually, one way or another, he will learn.

Let's celebrate each other's flaws by making peace with our own intentions if coming to i3 in the first place.. To get trading ideas

In any event, if one still couldn't release their angst, consider jacky chan's reply to Chris tucker in Rush Hour

CT: how are you always so cool?

JC: that's because I don't argue with stupid people. Everytime I get into one with them, I just reply, 'You're Right!

CT: that's so wrong, man. You'll be a pussy to take shit lying down

JC: You're Right

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-12-03 19:14 | Report Abuse

Fool always ignore he is a fool , same as sorcai Jon

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-12-03 19:21 | Report Abuse

I3value why you want argue with an idiot?Let idiot show off and we just like watching comedy.

Posted by Jon Choivo > 2018-12-03 19:23 | Report Abuse

Potential Ghost.

Unlike you, i did not lose money in jaks until cry father and mother.

In fact, i might be buying some soon at such potentially wonderful discount!

Posted by PotentialGhost > 2018-12-03 19:28 | Report Abuse

Dunno this beggar Jon got 100k or not , laugh died me.

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 19:31 | Report Abuse

Jon, you have a habit taking note of forumer lose money. And then you use it to hit them. Leveraging on other people misery and losses is not cool. Very low

Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 19:34 | Report Abuse

Jon Choivo always tell people go put money in FD. I want to ask Jon. Your returns this year more than FD or not?

If not, maybe you also better off putting money in FD

Posted by calvintaneng > 2018-12-03 19:39 | Report Abuse

Calvin thinks Jon Choivo is many times better than Plp qqq3

He has input that has value

And because he is young with built in Ben graham inoculation he shall find the right path to investment success

After many have gone bankrupt Jonathan Choivo will still be around for a very long time

CHEERS!!!

Posted by Outliar > 2018-12-03 22:42 | Report Abuse

Referring yourself in the 3rd person -.-