I find so funny that this fellow so cocky want to sell service to Uncle Koon by writing open blog. Really no shame. He sure think hard a few days to write the letter to Uncle Koon. "Wah this time my opportunity come liao! KYY lose money. Is desperate. If i offer help him make money he sure think about it".
He didnt realise the whole laugh. He just made himself look so silly.
Its a metaphor. Some events that happen are one off and have little bearing on the company's or the person's life in general.
first time 100 mark for maths. Well thats good, but that does not mean he will be nobel prize winner. The probability just went up by 0.5% or something.
You son took his first hit of heroin. Well. This one is likely to have a huge effect. His intrinsic value just went down at least 30%, even if he seems fine for the next 3 months.
===== Just because your son fail one exam, does that mean he go from genius to retard? No mah.
(P) : how did you manage to link a son performance with a business performance...they are equally erratic?
They are. Probablity is low. 1% of bursa companies is about 9.
There are probably around 10 or less who have consistently maintained high ROE and ROIC for the last 20 years, coupled with increasing earnings. We use this as proxy to "record earnings for life".
as a whole, corporate earnings growth cannot exceed gdp growth for any significant amount of time, without having very very inequal outcomes. Like what happened in the US from 1970-now.
=== That is clearly not the case for pretty much 99% of the companies in bursa.
(P) : really? there are no companies that continue growing their earnings after such events?
Markets are dynamic, crack spread do not stay fat all the time. Comodity prices do not stay high all the time. Even when its really hard to get like cobalt and lithium
If its expensive, people will find alternatives.
If crack fat, people delay maintainence, increaseing supply, lowering spread.
If crack thin, people do maintainence now, decreasing supply, fattening spread.
The only questions is, how good is you plant to begin with. I wrote this so many bloody times, and i can't rmbr how many times, i, ricky and 3iii got called pondan.
Same thing with steel etc etc.
==== (P): How did you conclude that the record earnings was going to be one time event and will not be the norm going forward at the time of the results?
what is the underlying mechanism that it wont be so....
and why did the market assume so and gave a price of RM 19?
So how do we counter this? When intrinsic value can shift so much or so little, whether up or down?
Improve thinking process.
Margin of safety, and being conservative loh. Ben Graham 101.
Think properly lah Jon. Uncle Koon is billionaire. He lost this money heart a bit pain only. Wont affect his wealth much. At his level of wealth, he only not happy losing and ego kena knock.
You totally dont understand other people's thinking. Only your way to think is correct, right?
And you got your facts wrong. He is not a billionaire, but a millionaire.
Right now after that burn, he should still have about RM100m, but barely. I doubt he has Rm200m.
==== Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:11 PM | Report Abuse
Think properly lah Jon. Uncle Koon is billionaire. He lost this money heart a bit pain only. Wont affect his wealth much. At his level of wealth, he only not happy losing and ego kena knock.
You totally dont understand other people's thinking. Only your way to think is correct, right?
Ok Jon, looking at your feedback below...i can say you have a very different world which you are living as someone just said.
I must be living in my own world (unreal) as perceived by you.
Very difficult to bridge this two world...
At least i managed to get a glimpse of your world (dont wish to be there frankly)..
may be we can discuss again when either of our world comes a little closer in the future..
bye for now
Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:07 PM | Report Abuse
Its a metaphor. Some events that happen are one off and have little bearing on the company's or the person's life in general.
first time 100 mark for maths. Well thats good, but that does not mean he will be nobel prize winner. The probability just went up by 0.5% or something.
You son took his first hit of heroin. Well. This one is likely to have a huge effect. His intrinsic value just went down at least 30%, even if he seems fine for the next 3 months.
===== Just because your son fail one exam, does that mean he go from genius to retard? No mah.
(P) : how did you manage to link a son performance with a business performance...they are equally erratic?
They are. Probablity is low. 1% of bursa companies is about 9.
There are probably around 10 or less who have consistently maintained high ROE and ROIC for the last 20 years, coupled with increasing earnings. We use this as proxy to "record earnings for life".
as a whole, corporate earnings growth cannot exceed gdp growth for any significant amount of time, without having very very inequal outcomes. Like what happened in the US from 1970-now.
=== That is clearly not the case for pretty much 99% of the companies in bursa.
(P) : really? there are no companies that continue growing their earnings after such events?
Markets are dynamic, crack spread do not stay fat all the time. Comodity prices do not stay high all the time. Even when its really hard to get like cobalt and lithium
If its expensive, people will find alternatives.
If crack fat, people delay maintainence, increaseing supply, lowering spread.
If crack thin, people do maintainence now, decreasing supply, fattening spread.
The only questions is, how good is you plant to begin with. I wrote this so many bloody times, and i can't rmbr how many times, i, ricky and 3iii got called pondan.
Same thing with steel etc etc.
==== (P): How did you conclude that the record earnings was going to be one time event and will not be the norm going forward at the time of the results?
what is the underlying mechanism that it wont be so....
and why did the market assume so and gave a price of RM 19?
So how do we counter this? When intrinsic value can shift so much?
Margin of safety, and being conservative loh. Ben Graham 101.
You write so long for what? Go straight to the point. Only people with no confidence but still want to show smart keep repeat and repeat. And then write long long throw in technical terms and want other believe to see you as smart. You think still in university need to score point for essay?
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Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:12 PM | Report Abuse
I3value.
Yeah, i'm always wondering if im wrong.
And i always write long long so that people can see my thought process and hopefully poke holes in them and show me to be a fool.
Its better to find out you are one, than to actually be one and not know.
I dont write to share knowledge with, though if one found it helpful, i am pleased.
I write to crystlize my thoughts, to organize my thinking better. Writing is like thinking, but on steroid.
As for an audience. I'm fine with a few, with one or with zero.
That statement is useless mah. must support with reasoning and example mah.
unless for you, you only need that to make your conclusions lah.
In that case youre an analyst's dream. Just say "buy", you rush to sailang!
==== Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:23 PM | Report Abuse
You write so long for what? Go straight to the point. Only people with no confidence but still want to show smart keep repeat and repeat. And then write long long throw in technical terms and want other believe to see you as smart. You think still in university need to score point for essay?
Everyone also say this Jon live in different world. But then to Jon, he is the only one correct. Everyone else living in wrong world, everyone brain is short curcuit, no one else read as much as him, only Jon is correct.
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Posted by probability > Dec 3, 2018 05:19 PM | Report Abuse
Ok Jon, looking at your feedback below...i can say you have a very different world which you are living as someone just said.
I must be living in my own world (unreal) as perceived by you.
Very difficult to bridge this two world...
At least i managed to get a glimpse of your world (dont wish to be there frankly)..
may be we can discuss again when either of our world comes a little closer in the future..
Im not sure to be comforted to worried. On one hand, the crowd is defintiely stupid, having gone through the statistics at a friends brokerage firm.
On the other hand, i'm constantly worried, because there is no way im right all the time. But for some reason, its almost never the people i meet in real life who show me that, but those i can only meet in books.
Oh well, good luck to us both i guess. Dont be another statistic in my friend brokerage.
You know the ones who win big ones, margin and sailaing, lose even more. Then diam d, no trade for a few months while pay back debt.
Before after sometime, start back again same pattern.
I noticed you said this is a new account after awhile. Good luck!
===== Posted by i3Value > Dec 3, 2018 05:31 PM | Report Abuse
Everyone also say this Jon live in different world. But then to Jon, he is the only one correct. Everyone else living in wrong world, everyone brain is short curcuit, no one else read as much as him, only Jon is correct.
Your writing style is always try to attack others but you leave a way out for yourself when people criticise you. So obvious. Want to insult others but yet scared other people see you lowly. This is call snake. Not smart or intelligent.
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Posted by Jon Choivo > Dec 3, 2018 05:39 PM | Report Abuse
Comprehension fail again.
Student mistakes an "example", for an "accusation".
May be due to deep held insecurity.
Alright this is low, its like insulting children. It only brings me down.
Jon, you have a habit taking note of forumer lose money. And then you use it to hit them. Leveraging on other people misery and losses is not cool. Very low
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
i3Value
612 posts
Posted by i3Value > 2018-12-03 17:09 | Report Abuse
I find so funny that this fellow so cocky want to sell service to Uncle Koon by writing open blog. Really no shame. He sure think hard a few days to write the letter to Uncle Koon. "Wah this time my opportunity come liao! KYY lose money. Is desperate. If i offer help him make money he sure think about it".
He didnt realise the whole laugh. He just made himself look so silly.