As usual u r raising the same old hag stock like yours portfolio....where its price already factor in all the prospect of growth at Pe 50x mah...!!
Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 06:42 PM | Report Abuse
QL is a good company.
It has grown its segmental businesses consistently over the years. That is a great achievement.
Its surimi business is god-send. Harvesting the products of the sea and making great profits with high ROA and ROE.
Its poultry business is better than the other related companies in the same industry. Capital intensive but growing profits.
Its palm oil business should be fine, though its ROC is probably the lower of the segments.
It has embarked on Family Mart. I have no deep knowledge of this. Will be keeping a good eye on this business, in particular its return on invested capital.
Its first 3 segments generate good profits (almost 300m) and good cash flows. Its capital expenditure is sizable (unlike Nestle, which I still like, though growth is slower than QL in the last decade). Its FCF is presently negative and its borrowings can be anticipated to grow due to its aggressive expansion of Family Mart and also its dividends provision.
Nevertheless, once the business is set up and in place, the higher earnings and profits generated will more than offset the loans incurred.
This company can still grow its business segments. Its penetration into the neighbouring countries over the next few years will be interesting and generate more growth. As was mentioned, it should be good as long as the return on capital is greater than its cost of capital.
Its valuation is high for now. Either the price has to correct or the price might stagnate awaiting the earnings to catch up.
Warren Buffett mentioned that if you get it right 8 out of 10 times in investing, you are aldy a guru. It is unrealistic to aim for a score of perfect 10. No investor is able to achieve that.
Even Warren Buffett has made a mistake recently in investing into "Apple".
u talk like u understand ql business alot....could u tell us some story why u like ??
Also tell us why despite PE 50x with div can only afford less than 1% pa yield u still like this counter leh ??
Posted by Flintstones > Jan 21, 2019 06:47 PM | Report Abuse
Long numbers guy, Icon8888 clearly does not understand QL business. I doubt he ever reads any of QL annual reports. Icon8888 is a trader who trades based on quarterly profits. It is hard to convince him to do long term investment lah
you are not being consistent loh (mimicking Raider). You say you like Buffett companies. Buffett companies got moat loh. Companies that have moat don't gear up like crazy loh.
and QL gear up like crazy.
how can it be good ?
it has no moat. Longkang it has
Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 06:42 PM | Report Abuse
QL is a good company.
It has grown its segmental businesses consistently over the years. That is a great achievement.
Its surimi business is god-send. Harvesting the products of the sea and making great profits with high ROA and ROE.
Its poultry business is better than the other related companies in the same industry. Capital intensive but growing profits.
Its palm oil business should be fine, though its ROC is probably the lower of the segments.
It has embarked on Family Mart. I have no deep knowledge of this. Will be keeping a good eye on this business, in particular its return on invested capital.
Its first 3 segments generate good profits (almost 300m) and good cash flows. Its capital expenditure is sizable (unlike Nestle, which I still like, though growth is slower than QL in the last decade). Its FCF is presently negative and its borrowings can be anticipated to grow due to its aggressive expansion of Family Mart and also its dividends provision.
Nevertheless, once the business is set up and in place, the higher earnings and profits generated will more than offset the loans incurred.
This company can still grow its business segments. Its penetration into the neighbouring countries over the next few years will be interesting and generate more growth. As was mentioned, it should be good as long as the return on capital is greater than its cost of capital.
Its valuation is high for now. Either the price has to correct or the price might stagnate awaiting the earnings to catch up.
>>>>stockraider As usual u r raising the same old hag stock like yours portfolio....where its price already factor in all the prospect of growth at Pe 50x mah...!! <<<<
My portfolio hardly changes.
Mr. 1015 will probably talk to us on his stocks too.
Of course, stockraider is better, he talks on many stocks!!!
At least, 3iii and Mr 1015 are credible when they talk of their portfolio.
But again this is not a promotion or a push to ask someone to invest in a pe50 stock. That would again be insanity for new investors.
My question is merely: if stoneco were to do an IPO today in Malaysia, how many of you would invest in it? It's got huge borrowing, negative income, high growth, low earnings, low margins, what's metrics would you use to invest in it?
Ta doesnt with for IPOs, fa doesn't work for start ups. What then would be Warren buffet reasoning behind a high pe buy?
If u believe in Ben Graham, then pls do not talk cock and belittle margin of safety investor like calvin tan, raider, leno and sslee mah....!!
Raider do not talk bad of warren buffet bcos raider appreciate & subscribe to W.buffet investment approach mah....!!
Posted by 3iii > Jan 21, 2019 06:50 PM | Report Abuse
Chapter 7 – Portfolio Policy for the Enterprising Investor: The Positive Side
Graham says that there are four clear areas of activity that an enterprising investor (read: not an ultra-conservative investor) should focus on:
1. Buying in low markets and selling in high markets. Graham says, in essence, that this is a good strategy in theory, but that it’s essentially impossible to accurately predict (on a mathematical basis) when the market is truly “low” and when it’s truly “high.” Why? Graham says that there’s inadequate data available to be able to accurately predict such situations – he basically believes fifty years of data is needed to make such claims, and as of the book’s writing, he did not believe adequate data was available in the post-1949 modern era. Note, though, that Graham returns to the notion of high and low markets in the next chapter.
2. Buying carefully chosen “growth stocks.” What about growth stocks – ones that are clearly showing rampant growth? Graham isn’t opposed to buying these, but says that one should look for growth stocks that have a reasonable P/E ratio. He wouldn’t buy a “growth stock” if it had a price-to-earnings ratio higher than 20 over the last year and would avoid stocks that have a price-to-earnings ratio over 25 on average over the last several years. In short, this is a way to filter out “bubble” stocks (one where irrational exuberance is going on) when looking at growth stocks.
3. Buying bargain issues of various types. Here, Graham finally gets around to the idea of buying so-called “value stocks.” For the most part, Graham focuses on market conditions as they existed in 1959, pointing towards what would constitute value stocks then. What I found most profound, though, is a brief bit on page 169. Here, Graham discusses “filtering” the stocks listed by Standard and Poor’s (essentially a 1950s precursor to the S&P 500) and identifying 85 stocks that meet basic value criteria, then buying them and finding that, over the next two years, most of them beat the overall market.
That’s an index fund, my friends. Graham had basically conceived of the idea in the 1950s – it worked then, and it works now.
4. Buying into “special situations.” Graham largely suggests avoiding “topical” news as a reason to buy or sell, mostly because it’s hard for investors to gauge how exactly such news will truly affect the stock’s price. Instead, one should simply file away interesting long-term news for later use if you’re going to evaluate the stock. For example, recalling that a company is still paying off an incurred debt from ten years ago and that debt is about to be paid off might be an indication of an upcoming jump in profit for the company – and a possible sign of a good valu
maybe u can elaborate why u did not buy some cp by switching some ql leh ??? After all Cp bigger co lower valuation & one of the biggest co in thailand...!!
Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 21, 2019 06:57 PM | Report Abuse
Actually Stockraider was the one who started on ql. I have avoided repeating stories to people who don't understand.
I'm just interested in sifu opinion on investing in stocks like stoneco.
one of Mr. Long's main reasons for justifying QL's 50 times PER is that it managed to grow its revenue by 140% from RM1.5 bil in 2009 to RM3.6 bil in 2018, and that its net profit grew from RM100 mil in 2009 to RM205 mil in 2018 (increase 100%)
THAT, is attributed by Long to moat
take a look at Johotin lah
In 2009, its revenue was RM100 mil. In 2018, its revenue RM400 mil. A 300% increase !!!
In 2009, its net profit was RM5 mil. In 2018, its net profit was RM25 mil. A 400% increase !!!
Did the market give it 50 times PER ? Nope, 14 times PER (which I think is fair)
In 2009, Johotin has borrowings of RM30 mil. In 2018, it has net cash of RM50 mil (despite revenue growing by multiple folds).
by any measures, Johotin has done much much better than QL
if QL has moat, I think Johotin has a canal to protect it
if QL deserves 50 times PER, maybe Johotin deserves 500 times PER ?
I agreed with the following quote. Sometimes, certain stocks are beaten down due to some sudden market events or government policies. Other than that, there is no change at all to its business operations. Market over-reacted and sold the shares down and the counters became grossly undervalued. I found GenM and FGV to be oversold and became "Superbuys".
Before this, I did not invest in these two counters.
Icon8888: "Investing should not be defined only as picking good stocks and holding forever to enjoy compounded return. Buying an overlooked stock to wait for market to rectify mispricing and hence provides opportunity to cash out, is also considered investing. Even if it happens within few months."
you thought having a fed mill is big deal ah ? look at sinmah, it has its own feed mill too
look where it is now ?
and please stop comparing QL to CP. Malaysian poultry business is structurally different from Thailand. In Thailand, the entire chicken can be sold from wings to thighs to intestine to chicken butt. That is why Thai has a cost advantage compared to other countries. Malaysians only eat chicken meat, so the cost is structurally and perpetually higher than Thailand.
QL is no CP lah
it doesn't deserve 50 times PER
10 times at best
Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 21, 2019 06:49 PM | Report Abuse
Ql produces their own raw material. They started in the feedmill business in the 80s before buying their poultry business.
Everybody can make coffee. But why Starbucks making profit and dome stagnating?
Everybody can make burgers? Why is MacDonald king?
It's all the same answer. Vertical integration. If you spend on debt to do vertical integration isn't it with more in the long run?
I apologize, I seem to have mistaken and thought that icon8888 is a young banana, with little experience in investing. I stand corrected in the face of an elder. Your profile image before confused me.
As it is, enough about ql. I have made 10 times my investment by holding it long term since 2009. Every quarter for 40 quarters I have reinvested my earnings into it. All because I know what I see in it. I no longer feel the need to explain it rationalize to anyone my decision in holding and monitoring the stock anymore. All I can say is time will tell on my long term investment 10 year investment into topglove, pbb, yinson and ql. As I see no reason to sell as the story has not changed, I don't feel any need to explain long game investment theory to traders. Good luck
I will say one thing, all the companies that I have bought I have compared with similar companies within their industries and countries. And in each case the business is simple to understand, with margins and capex that are very straightforward. Among those company's that are straightforward I realized that certain company's perform much better over a long run than others. My investing in that case is simple.
If the entire bursa index consisted of bank stocks, I merely choose public Bank. It may be more expensive than rce, mbsb and Maybank in valuation, but over the long run the outperformance will be more than any undervalued bank stocks in the short term.
==== Icon8888 Icon has always been very good at doing one particular thing. Now icon has found the second missing parts. Only the two put together can generate sustainable return indefinitely
In 2016, icon is a good car, in 2019 he gets his petrol. So the car can finally move
Why did he buy? He considered the price to be lower than all the future cash flows discounted to present values.
Thats it.
===== 10154899906070843 But again this is not a promotion or a push to ask someone to invest in a pe50 stock. That would again be insanity for new investors.
My question is merely: if stoneco were to do an IPO today in Malaysia, how many of you would invest in it? It's got huge borrowing, negative income, high growth, low earnings, low margins, what's metrics would you use to invest in it?
Ta doesnt with for IPOs, fa doesn't work for start ups. What then would be Warren buffet reasoning behind a high pe buy? 21/01/2019 18:54
Those who know QL and am rational, will sell QL and buy CPFoods then.
=== 10154899906070843
But I will sell when the story changes, which is why buy and forget is stupid. Those who don't know ql compare it to pos Malaysia. Those who know ql are looking to the growth patterns of a cp foods.
The thought process i illustrated in that post/research, got me a few hundred thousand investment from 2 new investors.
And these 2 investors, are sophisticated value investors, they just happen to prefer spending their free time doing things other than reading thousands of annual reports.
I think it was a good trade.
==== Connie555 He cannot lar, he flip roti canai better...a while say he won't share out his 5k analysis on RCE then after that also post....know how to condemn people's analysis saying people collected only post their article, but while he is comdemning other people he is also owning Rce yet posting his 5k RCE analysis....what kind of people is this?
I think it is better for him to be a politician than become an investor because politician also always flip roti canai...period. 20/01/2019 22:52
An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.
I wrote something on this a long time back. Do note i was a lot more arrogant and brash back then.
Hard to believe i know. ====
Icon8888
As you correctly point out, if things turn sour and you need to cut loss, you are a trader. Because you are not giving the stock time to rectify the problem (or their fundamentals simply do not allow that to happen, even after 100 years).
The first sentence incorrect. Investors (my definition) expect the price to go up within short term of let’s say, one to two years (due to stock pick based on Uncle Koon golden rule), but in the event things turn sour, the stock must be good enough to be held so that can ultimately recover. The holding period should not be more than 5 years (or you might as well crystalise the loss. Don’t kid yourself that “it is just a paper loss”, when you need to wait for twenty years)
Good luck. Try not to go bankrupt. I don't know why, all the Connie's who start putting money in KLSE tend to burn out. IFCA etc
You old already, if you screw up, cannot come back d. At your age, go sleep can d, don't look at market so much.
You seem to be one of those who take pride in their ignorance.
Well.. the spectrum of human nature runs large
This year, my i3 goal is this.
"If you come across any special trait of meanness or stupidity, you must be careful not to let it annoy or distress you, but to look upon it merely as an addition to your knowledge - a new fact to be considered in studying the character of humanity. Your attitude towards it will be that of the mineralogist who stumbles upon a very characteristic specimen of a mineral."
Arthur Schopenhauer.
I do what i can, but if the cow don't want to move from the burning barn. It should get burned. I did my part.
What does this mean in the context of the prospectus exactly? What price exactly did you calculate?
Are you just spewing words just so people can hear you speak, or do you actually have something meaningful to add?
It's like saying the intrinsic value is low so he buy.
What does that even mean? How would what you said even aid you in valuing stoneco? Or n other fintech businesses incoming into bursa and sgx? Or even valuing numoni sdn BHD?
Have you even read the IPO prospectus?
Are you even interested in learning anything in life? Or do you think you have learned everything there is to learn?
>>
Why did he buy? He considered the price to be lower than all the future cash flows discounted to present values.
As for comparison to johotin, It was easy to see. Johotin was a one trick pony that has subpar management even from early on and just took advantage of market pricing on raw materials to make a profit. If it had branched out to property development back then like scientex, I might have given them benefit of doubt. If it had done vertical integration into final product retail, I would have been impressed. If it had expanded into Indonesia, Thailand or Philippines instead of Mexico, I would have been hopeful. Instead, what I saw was weak management decisions in growing their business. If you compare that to the actions gone by ql management, you would see they have similar starts, but you can guess the end results from their m&a activities.
Sometimes revenue and profit don't mean a thing, unless you have a plan for the long run.
Was ql expansion from feedmill into poultry into marine into palm oil into family Mart masterful? Yes and each time a big success. Will it be able to replicate its business overseas long term? Definitely. I can see a plan for ql to do 10 billion in ten years and 1 billion in profits.
What did johotin do to give anyone any confidence in its ability to grow its business long term? How much growth can you expect from johotin?
>>> take a look at Johotin lah
In 2009, its revenue was RM100 mil. In 2018, its revenue RM400 mil. A 300% increase !!!
In 2009, its net profit was RM5 mil. In 2018, its net profit was RM25 mil. A 400% increase !!!
Did the market give it 50 times PER ? Nope, 14 times PER (which I think is fair)
Posted by 10154899906070843 > Jan 22, 2019 12:51 AM | Report Abuse
As for comparison to johotin, ========
bravo...in any case Johor Tin attracts small boys...
CanOne lah...CanOne in the same industry attracts the big boys.....Its masterful how small little Canone swallow up KianJoo while KJ brothers are fighting each other.....
Everyone seems to forget terminal value when valuing a business. They seem to think business will grow forever.
But the truth is, if you read enough financial reports, you will realize trend,
A) companies just starting out and have high growth prospects, low earnings high pe B) companies in mature growth stage with a piece of the market pie medium pe C) companies slowing down, in risky time, or in sunset industries, low pe
The trick is to be able to understand how big the pie is and how much of it is feasible.
Banks in Malaysia are like b) hard to grow further, but huge moat and stable business
Companies like ql and yinson which were able to identify new business units and expanded organically with great success.
And finally companies like insas,leonhuat and johotin who have hit the maximum growth potential in their market, and not being able to pivot or expand new businesses successfully, end up stagnating.
Last time said QL revenue and profit growth figures are the evidence of moat
Now say those figures not applicable to Johotin, and imposed additional conditions such as the need for regional expansion, vertical integration, diversification, etc (which, if happens, I believe will in turn be argued against as being lack of focus, etc. Basically you can say whatever you want to say, OMG)
You are shifting goal post, bending rules and twisting concepts to suit your own purpose leh
Never mind let's just end it here. Like I say I was never interested in the QL discussion in the first place. You guys can go back to QL thread to discuss
Dear all, To be fair to Jon Choivo, I like this young man, well read, articulate and speak his mind. I was no way near him in term of reading nor knowledge when I am his age but he remind me of what I am during my early career as engineer, an idealist fighting with the capitalist the ideal of share wealth and always on the side of workers until one day the management told me if you are so concern about the welfare of the workers that teach them the knowledge they required to progress so that when opportunity arrives they are ready to grab the opportunity. From that day onward I hold class after office hour to teach my workers the chemistry and basic principle of chemical reaction, the physical theory in process separation, the E/I principle of motor and control system, the mechanical of moving parts and motion, internal design principle of vessel, reactor, evaporator, boiler and etc, how and what set parameters will affect the quality, the costing and cost effect of running an chemical plant and finally teaching them hard-work, discipline, honesty, respect, dignity, self-worth and self-confident and with knowledge and humble enough to learn from everyone their fate is in their hand now.
I am glad many of my operators and supervisors are now holding a higher position in many of oleo-chemical Industries even multi-national companies. This is the power of knowledge and I am honor when they meet me they call be “SIR” an honor that if I get the chance to meet Mr. KCChong I will call him “SIR”.
I would also like to thank all for sharing their knowledge in i3 because Knowledge if kept to yourself have no value only by sharing we create the value.
You don't mention i still can accept, niameh (i cannot scold niabu, because niabu is me) at first at there lan wai dai condemning others people article saying those who listen to quarter predictor is the product.
"There is no such thing as people sharing for your learning. Or to share the profit with you. Track the incentives! If you are not paying for it, you’re the product!"
Now i feel so pity for both of your investor because they became your profuct already. So next time shut the fuck up before doing the same thing as others did. Others is just sharing their article and u also sharing your article what makes u sooooo ethical while everyone else is unethical? Should i say that? In this case if you are posting article to gain benefit for yourself (i suppose thr would b some fees or profit sharing) you are also unethical technically according to you fuck up mindset.
Hornestly, if you put your knowledge into good use, the future is bright for you. But too bad your mindset is fuck up and from what i observed you only know how to PLP icon8888.
Stepping on others to gain popularity is that what you want? Fking cunt
This calf is just so stubborn, more stubborn than the mom who don't want to move away from the burning barn.
The thought process i illustrated in that post/research, got me a few hundred thousand investment from 2 new investors.
And these 2 investors, are sophisticated value investors, they just happen to prefer spending their free time doing things other than reading thousands of annual reports.
Dear all, Be an idealist is not a bad start in your career but been an idealist after a long career where your idealist did not bring the desired result you intent nor benefit the society and yourself then the fault in on you. I had found a way to be idealist and at the same time brought benefit to people I care and my-self. It is up to young man to ponder and find his owe way how to put his idealist to good use that benefit self and all.
This book is the result of the author's many years of experience and observation throughout his 26 years in the stockbroking industry. It was written for general public to learn to invest based on facts and not on fantasies or hearsay....
3iii
13,174 posts
Posted by 3iii > 2019-01-21 18:42 |
Post removed.Why?