Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-29 22:01 | Report Abuse

You have clearly put targets of JTIASA at RM3.00 by year end and TSH at RMM3.00 by year end. These are clearly your words and prediction. So let's see, the market will decide and the good people if i3 will see

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-29 22:08 | Report Abuse

Furthermore why is Jtiasa at RM0.87 despite it not having any call warrants? who is manipulating it then? please

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-29 22:29 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-29 22:36 | Report Abuse

that is exactly what the article is saying!

Posted by Wizman > 2022-05-29 23:07 | Report Abuse

Most palm oil stocks are severely undervalued now due to whatever wrong reasons prices correction lately,
so it's a matter of time palm oil stocks will burst like volcano eruption to historical price level with
unprecedented historical high CPO 6,000-8,000 in Palm Oil Super Bull Run 2022-2023.

Furthermore, high food inflation & weaker ringgit will expedite market forces to buy palm oil stocks crazily...

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-29 23:20 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-05-29 23:24 | Report Abuse

Analysts repeatedly given wrong projection of CPO price and even though they have admitted their off track prediction and still continue to do it. It is hard not to believe they have bad intentions.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-05-29 23:32 | Report Abuse

At time big chunk of valuable plantations stocks may fall into foreigner's hands at substantially discounted price.

Posted by Raymond Tiruchelvam > 2022-05-30 04:07 | Report Abuse

nice article @skoh888 ... i like ur2 suggestions, and im taking the first suggestion, and have already gone in, but on your point about IB, im sure u know that they issue 15 CWs and then someone will issue 1 PW... where is the fairness in this? Naturally it will be in their interest to push the mother share down, thats just their strategy, just like short selling, the strategy is clear, but you mentioned JTiasa has no CWs and yet not doing well.... thats a good point, how about hibiscus? any opinion?

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 08:21 | Report Abuse

Fed yields coming down means comodities going up again..in a few months u will see hyperinflation as US cant increase rates too much cos of too much debt.its nothing tp do with being cyclical its about excess money n fiat currency.
In a few months we will know...
No need argue lerr..

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 08:22 | Report Abuse

Palm oil going up....no more cyclical...as you can see...
I buying klk sop taann lots of it. .
Huat ah...

Posted by supersinginvestor > 2022-05-30 08:25 | Report Abuse

Cant blame ibs as this is something new...
Just like they got gloves wrong as no ib person really understood wat we mrna vaccines..
They will just say sorry did not see it coming..
Lol..
Ur money ur call..
Unless u pay for advice which we dont.

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-30 08:45 | Report Abuse

Yes... oil palm trees will take like 7 years to mature to start bearing FFB.... but the Ukraine war won't last like 7 years.. so palm oil bull may just last 1 or 2... like gloves

Short live bull... weary wary wary

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-30 08:50 | Report Abuse

Over in Ghana etc ppl were not burned by gloves

Unique Malaysian experience

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-30 08:52 | Report Abuse

The ghosts of gloves....... weary wary wary

Posted by OrlandoOilSemiconIoT > 2022-05-30 08:54 | Report Abuse

Weary wary wary

To take profit early

Posted by stockraider > 2022-05-30 08:56 | Report Abuse

Actually mkt is bearish & mkt is also skeptical of the commodity bulll run of;

1.CPO
2. Steel
3. Crude Oil
4. Crack spread
5. Aluminum, Tin and Copper

Thus mkt is taking a cautious approach to its sustainability mah!

If say CPO continue to perform at above Rm 5000 going fwd and the management has good corp governance & pays good div to reward shareholders, I m sure the Plantation share price will continue to go up mah!

Even if the CPO price come down to Rm 4000, I m sure the impact on plantation share price is minimal as currently it is not overvalue mah!

Currently with all food inflation in the world plus limited land available for future cultivation due to the environment concern, plantation valuation & its land will be valuable loh!

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-30 08:57 | Report Abuse

@raymond...thanks for your comment. I never liked Jtiasa and would never buy their shares as I am familiar with their hedging policies and previous excessive futures speculation. So even with high spot prices, they are not likely to enjoy the high prices or even lose money through bad short bets in the futures market

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-05-30 09:38 | Report Abuse

Aiyo yo, climate change, vegetable oils shortage is expected to continue for many years. Why want to shun plantation stocks?

Posted by OnTime > 2022-05-30 09:43 | Report Abuse

the best way to boost the price of plantation companies is to either thru M&A or give generous dividend

Posted by markgold > 2022-05-30 10:05 | Report Abuse

IB discourage retail investors to buy plantation companies is a Fact.

Posted by markgold > 2022-05-30 10:06 | Report Abuse

IB forcast CPO price is wrong since 2 years ago until now is a Fact.

Posted by markgold > 2022-05-30 10:09 | Report Abuse

IB forecast CPO price is wrong even until end of this year. Most of them forecast the price around $4500.

Posted by Berlin > 2022-05-30 11:33 | Report Abuse

A sensible article with a practical piece of advice in conclusion.. Buy a portfolio of plantation stocks and hold for minimum 6 months if you think current high CPO prices can sustain. No conspiracy theories, no digging for treasure, no giving excuses of one kind or another for erroneous conjecture.

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-30 12:12 | Report Abuse

@berlin...thanks for the compliment. Love the last bit about erroneous conjecture haha. Love it!

Posted by Beltland > 2022-05-30 12:38 | Report Abuse

Posted by Beltland > 5 minutes ago | Report Abuse

On market financial theory, Calvin is 100% correct. i3 gambler is totally wrong ! IB bank issues cw for the purpose to gamble with ikan billis. In gambling world ,the bankers must make sure they are on the advantage to make money from customers .So simple !!! Like that also don't know ! Pasar old lady selling kuih also know the secret !

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-30 13:04 | Report Abuse

Beltland,
I don't even leave a comment here, why did you want to mention me here?
skoh888 have also explained that "profit is derived more from the market making and spread activities".
The Youtube video link that I put to Calvin post also explain IBs would not earn money that way.
What to do with the Pasar old lady selling kuih? You look down on them?
What an arrogant person you are.
Telling what financial theory?
You are joker?

Posted by speakup > 2022-05-30 15:58 | Report Abuse

hancur already
all thanks to Andy Hall

Posted by RJ87 > 2022-05-30 17:40 | Report Abuse

what’s really obvious was when bankers has skin in gloves, they punt for gloves like no tomorrow. I still remember got one IB put market valuation of RM100B for topglove. But when comes to counters they have no skin in the game or worse, they issued SCW at low price, NEUTRAL or UNDERWEIGHT

Posted by sensonic > 2022-05-30 20:30 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-30 22:02 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by TraderAlways > 2022-05-30 22:56 | Report Abuse

Welcome to the prison. Lets share bull news for a few more days and we will see the bottom very soon.

Posted by StartOfTheBull > 2022-05-30 23:19 | Report Abuse

Don't talk like that lah. CPO price is still very high mah. If CPO come down to RM3,000 or below let me know ok?

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-31 10:16 | Report Abuse

@startofthebull....the definition of peak earnings DOES not mean that the companies are not profitable. They can still make super profits but may not see any profit growth. That's the definition of peak earnings.

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-31 10:18 | Report Abuse

To get an idea what the average price of CPO will be in the next 6 to 12 months you look at the futures prices of the future contracts for FCPO

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-31 10:21 | Report Abuse

For example based on yesterday's settlement price, the Dec2022 settled at RM5894 while the Feb2023 contract settled at RM5874. So If is no where near the spot price which is the Jun 2022 contract, currently trading at RM6710

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-31 10:26 | Report Abuse

However with so many variables in play especially the ongoing war in Russia, it is anybody's guess what the prices will be in 6 months! The futures just gives us an idea but it is not definitive

Posted by i3gambler > 2022-05-31 10:48 | Report Abuse

skoh888,

My way of valuation.
I copy the market FCPO prices, AUG 2022 to FEB 2023, to my spreadsheet.

But for MAR 2023 and beyond,
I do not take the market prices because sometime the volume is thin, and therefore not meaningful.
What I do is to apply a formula so that from MAR 2023, the prices would converge to 10 years average price.

The latest 10 years average CPO price is RM2761, no need to adjust to inflation, as my calculation is also assume the production cost remain the same.

Now we can estimate the EPS for the next 5 years (20 quarters),
Discount all the future EPSs back to today by a rate.
Then the furthest quarterly EPS x 4, will be multiply with reasonable PE ratio, again discount it back to today.
I prefer PE Ratio for: BKAWAN=12, KLK=20, SWKPLNT=12, TAANN=15, SIMEPLT=25

Sum up all the above and there I get the today's fair value for the companies.

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-31 10:52 | Report Abuse

@i3gambler...very impressive! you are obviuosly a student of econometrics haha

Posted by skoh888 > 2022-05-31 10:55 | Report Abuse

By my metrics I also derived that SWK is my best bet followed by TSH

Posted by stockraider > 2022-05-31 11:37 | Report Abuse

Swk is good but tsh is so so loh!

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-31 14:19 |

Post removed.Why?

Posted by gladiator > 2022-05-31 14:47 | Report Abuse

Thailand Univanich Palm Oil PE=10 while Sarawak oil palm PE=5 only

Posted by calvintaneng > 2022-05-31 18:37 | Report Abuse

gladiator correct

SOP is very cheap and undemanding

more than 220,000 acres out of 300,000 acres are matured with high Ffb yields

Posted by sting79 > 2022-05-31 20:43 | Report Abuse

Reading the article and calvin's conjecture on price suppression provide both logical and reasonable points.

Market maker's spread that we read on internet is only the tip of iceberg on how these cindy kate works, many of the mechanics may be hidden and never be known to outsiders forever. (esoteric readers may also tell you the same, many of the real world truth is hidden beyond the common veil of what we see and know)

Also, I always believe cindy kate usually works in groups, coz if they are individual groups fighting amongst each other all the time, cannot imagine the bloodshed if one group causes the other group to lose tens or hundreds of millions dollar.

Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-09-22 23:23 |

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Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-09-22 23:26 |

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Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-09-22 23:33 |

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Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-09-22 23:35 |

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Posted by SEE_Research > 2022-09-23 09:10 |

Post removed.Why?